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Italy · Multi-region weather view

Southern Apennines

Mountain and volcanic wine districts from Campania through Basilicata and Calabria.

Elevation and two coastlines interrupt an otherwise hot, dry southern growing season.

Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Aug 20, 2026.

Current conditions

Observations through Aug 30, 2026 · 06:00 UTC

Temperature24.6°C
Dew Point12.5°C
Relative Humidity47%
24h Rainfall0.2 mmmodeled IFS total through Aug 29

Vintage explorer

Compare this vintage →

Slightly warmer and significantly wetter than normal.

Mean temperature18.1°C
Temperature anomaly+0.1°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days1882base 10°C
Hot days0≥ 35°C

What stood out in 2016

Frequent rain can mean more canopy growth and more disease pressure. Rain close to harvest can raise rot pressure and shorten the picking window.

Wetter than baseline · Moderate confidence

Growing-season precipitation was 125 mm above the 1991–2020 baseline.

Frequent rain can mean more canopy growth and more disease pressure.

More harvest rain than usual · High confidence

Harvest-window precipitation totaled 271 mm, +87 mm versus baseline.

Rain close to harvest can raise rot pressure and shorten the picking window.

How unusual was 2016?

The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.

Growing-season temperature

16th coolest of 35 vintages Cooler than 19 of 34 other vintages 18.1°C

Growing-season rainfall

2nd wettest of 35 vintages Wetter than 33 of 34 other vintages 593.3 mm

Heat accumulation

16th lowest of 35 vintages Lower than 19 of 34 other vintages 1882 GDD

Hot days

3rd most of 35 vintages More than 0 of 34 other vintages 0 days

2016 month by month

Compared with 1991–2020

Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.

Frost watch Growing season Harvest window
  1. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2016 21 GDD
    Typical 23 GDD

    Rainfall

    2016 160.8 mm
    Typical 101.3 mm
    2016 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.6

    Wetter than the typical month.

  2. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2016 137 GDD
    Typical 69 GDD

    Rainfall

    2016 65.3 mm
    Typical 90.0 mm
    2016 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.1

    Heat accumulation ran ahead of the typical month.

  3. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2016 173 GDD
    Typical 187 GDD

    Rainfall

    2016 102.3 mm
    Typical 65.3 mm
    2016 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.0

    Wetter than the typical month.

  4. 1–30
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2016 301 GDD
    Typical 305 GDD

    Rainfall

    2016 37.4 mm
    Typical 41.3 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  5. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2016 410 GDD
    Typical 395 GDD

    Rainfall

    2016 29.2 mm
    Typical 27.3 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  6. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2016 380 GDD
    Typical 414 GDD

    Rainfall

    2016 54.1 mm
    Typical 28.5 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

  7. 1–30
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2016 271 GDD
    Typical 290 GDD

    Rainfall

    2016 135.4 mm
    Typical 72.8 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

  8. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2016 189 GDD
    Typical 191 GDD

    Rainfall

    2016 115.4 mm
    Typical 94.8 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

View milestone calendar data as a table
Month2016 GDDTypical GDD2016 rainfallTypical rainfall2016 freezing daysTypical freezing days
March 2016 21 GDD 23 GDD 160.8 mm 101.3 mm 00.6
April 2016 137 GDD 69 GDD 65.3 mm 90.0 mm 00.1
May 2016 173 GDD 187 GDD 102.3 mm 65.3 mm 00.0
June 2016 301 GDD 305 GDD 37.4 mm 41.3 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
July 2016 410 GDD 395 GDD 29.2 mm 27.3 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
August 2016 380 GDD 414 GDD 54.1 mm 28.5 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
September 2016 271 GDD 290 GDD 135.4 mm 72.8 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
October 2016 189 GDD 191 GDD 115.4 mm 94.8 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
Calendar data and method

Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.

Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.

Replay the 2016 growing season

231 daily regional observations

Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.

Replay data and method

Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Jul 14, 2026.

Closest weather matches

These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.

  1. Closest match

    2009

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Spring frost exposure.

    Hot-day count
    the same: 0 days
    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days

    Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — less rain

    View 2009 →

  2. Second closest

    2010

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Spring frost exposure.

    Hot-day count
    the same: 0 days
    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days

    Largest difference: Growing-season mean temperature — cooler

    View 2010 →

  3. Third closest

    2002

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Spring frost exposure.

    Hot-day count
    the same: 0 days
    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days

    Largest difference: Growing-season mean temperature — cooler

    View 2002 →
How similar years are calculated

Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.

Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Hot-day count (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%); Spring frost exposure (10%).

Calculated distances: 2009 0.364; 2010 0.438; 2002 0.521.

Growing-season temperature anomalyCompared with 1991-2020
Temperature anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 A line above zero indicates a warmer growing season than the 1991–2020 baseline. Select a point to inspect that vintage. +2.3°C −2.3°C 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
Growing-season rainfall anomaly
Rainfall anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 Bars show millimeters above or below the 1991–2020 growing-season baseline. Select a bar to inspect that vintage. +230 mm −230 mm 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
View historical chart data as a table
YearTemperature anomalyRainfall anomalyHot days
1991-1.1°C-8 mm0
1992-0.5°C-48 mm0
1993+0.0°C-147 mm0
1994+0.2°C-89 mm0
1995-1.2°C-61 mm0
1996-1.1°C+74 mm0
1997-0.8°C-31 mm0
1998-0.1°C+8 mm0
1999+0.2°C-64 mm0
2000+0.3°C-43 mm0
2001+0.3°C-182 mm0
2002-0.5°C+108 mm0
2003+0.7°C+1 mm0
2004-0.3°C+78 mm0
2005-0.2°C-14 mm0
2006-0.1°C-60 mm0
2007+0.1°C+27 mm0
2008+0.2°C-30 mm0
2009+0.1°C+93 mm0
2010-0.3°C+121 mm0
2011+0.0°C-12 mm0
2012+1.1°C+46 mm0
2013+0.4°C+23 mm0
2014-0.1°C+21 mm0
2015+0.7°C+102 mm0
2016+0.1°C+125 mm0
2017+0.6°C-216 mm0
2018+0.7°C+163 mm0
2019+0.4°C-35 mm0
2020+0.0°C+47 mm0
2021+0.2°C-85 mm0
2022+1.1°C-51 mm0
2023+0.8°C+118 mm1
2024+2.1°C-69 mm0
2025+1.1°C-55 mm1
2026+1.6°C-192 mm0

winter

9.1°C

+1.7°C vs baseline

264 mm rain · -62 mm

spring

13.1°C

+0.7°C vs baseline

328 mm rain · +72 mm

summer

21.9°C

-0.2°C vs baseline

120 mm rain · +24 mm

harvest

18.6°C

-0.4°C vs baseline

271 mm rain · +87 mm

Weather events

Periods that crossed one of the published regional thresholds, shown in date order.

  1. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    69.0 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    45.8 mm
    Trigger threshold
    27.9 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

  2. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    41.7 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    41.6 mm
    Trigger threshold
    27.9 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

How events are detected

Weather & Vines combined regional series; method event-timeline-v2-2026-07, rules campania-catalog-v1-2026-07. Source last updated Jul 14, 2026, calculated Aug 29, 2026. Each configured point must have at least 95.0% coverage.

1991–present

Climate change

Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.

Compare regions

Observed record

Historical trends, 1991–2025

Growing degree days changed +102.1 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +64.5 to +139.6 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.

How it is measured: Across the March 15–October 31 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.

Growing degree days · annual change from the 1991–2020 average1991–2025

Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.

View annual growing degree days data
VintageGrowing degree daysChange from 1991–2020
19911611 GDD-256 GDD
19921752 GDD-115 GDD
19931879 GDD+12 GDD
19941910 GDD+43 GDD
19951640 GDD-227 GDD
19961615 GDD-252 GDD
19971727 GDD-140 GDD
19981862 GDD-5 GDD
19991927 GDD+60 GDD
20001939 GDD+72 GDD
20011923 GDD+56 GDD
20021765 GDD-102 GDD
20032062 GDD+195 GDD
20041778 GDD-88 GDD
20051802 GDD-65 GDD
20061839 GDD-28 GDD
20071901 GDD+34 GDD
20081913 GDD+46 GDD
20091905 GDD+38 GDD
20101775 GDD-92 GDD
20111857 GDD-10 GDD
20122097 GDD+230 GDD
20131951 GDD+84 GDD
20141829 GDD-38 GDD
20152025 GDD+158 GDD
20161882 GDD+16 GDD
20171994 GDD+127 GDD
20182026 GDD+159 GDD
20191948 GDD+81 GDD
20201876 GDD+9 GDD
20211960 GDD+94 GDD
20222113 GDD+246 GDD
20232062 GDD+195 GDD
20242320 GDD+453 GDD
20252104 GDD+237 GDD
Growing-season mean temperature
+0.47 °C per decade 95% interval +0.29 to +0.64
Growing degree days
+102.07 GDD per decade 95% interval +64.49 to +139.64
Growing-season precipitation
+17.05 mm per decade 95% interval -5.39 to +39.48
Hot days
+0.09 days per decade 95% interval -0.02 to +0.20
Spring frost days
-0.43 days per decade 95% interval -0.76 to -0.11
Longest dry spell
-0.39 days per decade 95% interval -1.97 to +1.19

Last Updated July 15, 2026

Model ensemble

Projected climate through 2075

Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.

Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.

PeriodWeighted medianWeighted central 80%Models per pathway
2021-2040+1.2°C+0.8 to +1.7°C25
2041-2060+1.8°C+1.2 to +2.6°C25
2061-2075+2.3°C+1.8 to +3.3°C25
How pathways are combined

For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Compare projection measures across regions

Typical year · 1991–2020

When to visit

This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.

Deterministic IFS forecast

Next ten days

Detailed forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · model run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC · retrieved Aug 30, 2026 at 08:22 UTC

Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.

DateSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTue
High 31°C 28°C 30°C 29°C 29°C 31°C 32°C 32°C 33°C 30°C
Low 21°C 20°C 18°C 18°C 18°C 16°C 19°C 20°C 20°C 20°C
Rain 0.1 mm 0.2 mm 1.2 mm 0.6 mm 1.6 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.1 mm 0.4 mm 0.0 mm

Across the typical year: Early August has the warmest median afternoon high (27.5°C); Late January has the coolest (9.6°C). Wet days are most frequent in Late November (56%) and least frequent in Late July (20%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lowsMedians and middle 50% of daily readings

Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lows for Southern Apennines Median daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 24 early and late-month periods under the 1991–2020 baseline. Neutral bands show the 25th to 75th percentile. 0°C5°C10°C15°C20°C25°C30°C JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
How often a day is wetShare of days with at least 1 mm of rain

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Wet-day frequency through the typical year for Southern Apennines The fraction of days receiving at least one millimeter of rain in each early and late-month period under the 1991–2020 baseline. 0%25%50%75%100% JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
View all 24 periods as a table

Scroll horizontally to view all columns.

Southern Apennines typical weather by half-month, 1991–2020
PeriodAfternoon high, median (middle 50%)Overnight low, median (middle 50%)Wet-day frequencyPeriod rain, median (middle 50%)
Jan 1–1510.4°C (8.5–11.9°C)4.8°C (2.9–6.5°C)47%45.6 mm (22.7–57.1 mm)
Jan 16–319.6°C (7.8–11.2°C)4.1°C (2.4–5.8°C)51%48.6 mm (28.7–88.7 mm)
Feb 1–1510.3°C (7.6–11.8°C)4.1°C (2.1–6.0°C)54%53.8 mm (24.8–81.2 mm)
Feb 16–2910.7°C (8.7–12.4°C)4.5°C (2.3–6.5°C)53%44.4 mm (21.4–57.8 mm)
Mar 1–1511.9°C (9.8–13.8°C)5.7°C (3.9–7.4°C)50%48.2 mm (29.5–83.5 mm)
Mar 16–3113.3°C (11.3–15.4°C)6.9°C (4.9–8.3°C)44%43.6 mm (27.9–65.9 mm)
Apr 1–1514.6°C (12.6–16.3°C)7.8°C (6.6–9.3°C)50%41.5 mm (30.2–56.6 mm)
Apr 16–3016.2°C (14.2–18.4°C)9.7°C (8.1–11.0°C)51%42.7 mm (27.7–57.4 mm)
May 1–1518.4°C (16.6–20.8°C)11.5°C (10.1–13.0°C)42%30.9 mm (16.8–52.5 mm)
May 16–3120.4°C (18.1–22.5°C)13.3°C (11.7–14.7°C)39%30.0 mm (18.6–40.5 mm)
Jun 1–1522.8°C (20.7–24.8°C)15.4°C (13.8–17.1°C)34%21.0 mm (13.7–30.5 mm)
Jun 16–3024.9°C (22.9–27.3°C)17.4°C (15.7–19.2°C)24%12.0 mm (4.3–22.4 mm)
Jul 1–1526.2°C (24.6–28.0°C)18.7°C (17.4–20.0°C)20%10.9 mm (3.7–15.2 mm)
Jul 16–3126.8°C (25.3–28.5°C)19.3°C (18.1–20.5°C)20%12.8 mm (4.6–23.4 mm)
Aug 1–1527.5°C (25.9–28.8°C)19.9°C (18.6–20.8°C)20%6.5 mm (3.2–23.8 mm)
Aug 16–3127.0°C (25.5–28.6°C)19.4°C (18.1–20.6°C)24%10.3 mm (4.3–19.7 mm)
Sep 1–1524.1°C (22.6–25.7°C)17.1°C (15.7–18.3°C)39%27.2 mm (15.0–54.3 mm)
Sep 16–3022.0°C (20.3–23.8°C)15.1°C (13.8–16.7°C)40%31.5 mm (17.0–54.8 mm)
Oct 1–1520.6°C (19.0–22.2°C)13.9°C (12.4–15.2°C)45%46.0 mm (24.0–66.9 mm)
Oct 16–3118.5°C (16.6–20.5°C)12.2°C (10.3–13.6°C)38%32.4 mm (19.2–69.6 mm)
Nov 1–1516.4°C (14.5–17.8°C)10.3°C (8.5–11.8°C)47%43.2 mm (33.5–74.4 mm)
Nov 16–3013.7°C (11.5–15.3°C)8.1°C (6.1–9.9°C)56%64.0 mm (30.6–103.8 mm)
Dec 1–1511.7°C (10.3–13.4°C)6.5°C (4.7–7.9°C)52%55.0 mm (36.4–75.3 mm)
Dec 16–3110.3°C (8.4–12.2°C)5.0°C (3.0–6.8°C)50%61.1 mm (49.6–82.5 mm)

Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.

Historical climatology Last Updated July 15, 2026

Season to date

Growing season heat and rainfall

Mar 15–Aug 30, 2026

Growing degree days1582.8base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall276.1 mmweighted regional total
Cumulative growing degree daysBase 10°C

2026 season1991–2020 average

Growing degree days accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily mean temperature above 10 degrees Celsius from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 1583 GDD 0 Mar ’26AprMayJunJulAug
Cumulative growing-season rainfallRegional weighted mean

2026 season1991–2020 average

Rainfall accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily rainfall in millimeters from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 292 mm 0 Mar ’26AprMayJunJulAug
View growing-season accumulation data
DateSeason GDD1991–2020 average GDDSeason rainfall1991–2020 average rainfall
2026-03-150.60.62.8 mm1.6 mm
2026-03-161.21.314.8 mm3.6 mm
2026-03-171.22.133.0 mm5.2 mm
2026-03-181.22.840.5 mm7.5 mm
2026-03-191.23.443.7 mm9.5 mm
2026-03-201.24.244.6 mm12.5 mm
2026-03-211.25.344.9 mm14.3 mm
2026-03-221.26.547.6 mm17.4 mm
2026-03-231.27.652.9 mm21.2 mm
2026-03-241.28.954.1 mm25.4 mm
2026-03-251.710.254.3 mm30.0 mm
2026-03-261.711.566.1 mm33.6 mm
2026-03-271.712.376.1 mm37.5 mm
2026-03-281.713.078.6 mm41.2 mm
2026-03-291.714.178.6 mm43.3 mm
2026-03-301.915.380.7 mm45.8 mm
2026-03-311.916.691.5 mm48.1 mm
2026-04-011.918.0110.6 mm49.9 mm
2026-04-021.919.2128.9 mm52.7 mm
2026-04-031.920.4132.5 mm55.4 mm
2026-04-043.522.1132.6 mm60.2 mm
2026-04-055.823.6132.6 mm64.6 mm
2026-04-069.025.1132.6 mm67.5 mm
2026-04-0712.926.6132.7 mm69.3 mm
2026-04-0816.928.4132.7 mm72.2 mm
2026-04-0920.630.1132.9 mm74.9 mm
2026-04-1024.931.9132.9 mm77.7 mm
2026-04-1130.633.6132.9 mm80.4 mm
2026-04-1235.835.5133.0 mm84.1 mm
2026-04-1341.037.1133.4 mm87.7 mm
2026-04-1446.938.7135.2 mm90.7 mm
2026-04-1551.640.5140.7 mm93.4 mm
2026-04-1656.342.7143.6 mm96.8 mm
2026-04-1761.544.8144.2 mm101.1 mm
2026-04-1866.646.7144.8 mm104.9 mm
2026-04-1971.548.8144.8 mm107.8 mm
2026-04-2076.451.2145.3 mm110.6 mm
2026-04-2182.353.9145.7 mm113.5 mm
2026-04-2285.556.8147.2 mm116.5 mm
2026-04-2386.559.7150.2 mm119.0 mm
2026-04-2488.763.0150.2 mm121.5 mm
2026-04-2592.766.3150.2 mm123.9 mm
2026-04-2697.769.9150.2 mm126.7 mm
2026-04-27103.773.7150.5 mm129.4 mm
2026-04-28110.477.7150.5 mm132.7 mm
2026-04-29117.981.8150.5 mm135.4 mm
2026-04-30121.685.8156.0 mm138.2 mm
2026-05-01123.690.1156.2 mm140.4 mm
2026-05-02125.894.8156.3 mm142.2 mm
2026-05-03129.699.8156.3 mm145.5 mm
2026-05-04134.8104.6156.3 mm148.3 mm
2026-05-05140.1109.3158.1 mm151.0 mm
2026-05-06147.2113.9158.7 mm154.9 mm
2026-05-07154.1118.3159.1 mm156.9 mm
2026-05-08158.8122.9161.8 mm158.9 mm
2026-05-09165.1127.8162.0 mm160.3 mm
2026-05-10172.8133.6164.2 mm160.8 mm
2026-05-11180.1139.8165.4 mm162.1 mm
2026-05-12187.0145.9165.6 mm164.3 mm
2026-05-13191.4151.8176.1 mm167.0 mm
2026-05-14194.8157.7181.2 mm169.5 mm
2026-05-15200.9163.6189.7 mm172.1 mm
2026-05-16204.7169.2202.3 mm174.6 mm
2026-05-17208.1175.3202.4 mm176.4 mm
2026-05-18212.3181.6202.9 mm178.2 mm
2026-05-19216.5187.7205.2 mm179.8 mm
2026-05-20222.0193.8205.5 mm182.2 mm
2026-05-21227.9200.1206.0 mm183.9 mm
2026-05-22235.5206.7206.1 mm186.4 mm
2026-05-23243.6213.6206.4 mm189.4 mm
2026-05-24252.4220.6206.7 mm192.2 mm
2026-05-25261.8227.6206.9 mm194.1 mm
2026-05-26272.2234.9207.0 mm196.0 mm
2026-05-27283.2242.5209.3 mm197.2 mm
2026-05-28294.3250.2211.7 mm199.4 mm
2026-05-29305.2257.6211.8 mm200.9 mm
2026-05-30315.8265.1211.8 mm202.1 mm
2026-05-31326.0272.4211.9 mm203.5 mm
2026-06-01336.5280.0212.1 mm205.2 mm
2026-06-02346.9288.0212.1 mm207.3 mm
2026-06-03357.6296.2214.3 mm210.0 mm
2026-06-04367.3304.4214.4 mm212.9 mm
2026-06-05377.9312.7214.4 mm215.4 mm
2026-06-06389.7321.5214.4 mm216.9 mm
2026-06-07401.1330.8214.4 mm218.0 mm
2026-06-08412.5340.1214.5 mm219.5 mm
2026-06-09424.1349.5215.4 mm220.8 mm
2026-06-10436.4359.2215.8 mm221.7 mm
2026-06-11448.8369.1216.3 mm223.1 mm
2026-06-12458.8379.0216.6 mm224.5 mm
2026-06-13469.2388.8216.6 mm225.6 mm
2026-06-14480.8398.6216.6 mm227.1 mm
2026-06-15492.7408.7216.6 mm228.3 mm
2026-06-16505.6419.2218.4 mm229.9 mm
2026-06-17518.2430.0218.7 mm231.3 mm
2026-06-18531.4440.7218.8 mm232.6 mm
2026-06-19545.5451.2219.0 mm234.1 mm
2026-06-20560.2462.0219.3 mm235.4 mm
2026-06-21575.5472.6219.5 mm236.8 mm
2026-06-22590.7483.9219.9 mm237.8 mm
2026-06-23605.2495.5222.6 mm238.6 mm
2026-06-24619.6506.9225.3 mm239.2 mm
2026-06-25634.2518.5229.9 mm240.1 mm
2026-06-26648.9530.1231.2 mm240.8 mm
2026-06-27664.8541.8231.6 mm241.7 mm
2026-06-28681.0553.8231.8 mm242.5 mm
2026-06-29697.6565.6233.3 mm244.1 mm
2026-06-30713.7577.4234.9 mm244.8 mm
2026-07-01729.0589.4238.6 mm245.3 mm
2026-07-02743.1601.8244.1 mm246.1 mm
2026-07-03756.2614.5246.5 mm246.7 mm
2026-07-04770.1627.2247.1 mm247.6 mm
2026-07-05783.3640.0247.1 mm248.2 mm
2026-07-06796.8652.7247.2 mm248.7 mm
2026-07-07810.5665.5250.7 mm249.4 mm
2026-07-08824.0678.2250.9 mm250.3 mm
2026-07-09837.8690.5252.9 mm251.0 mm
2026-07-10853.1702.6252.9 mm251.9 mm
2026-07-11869.0714.7253.1 mm252.3 mm
2026-07-12884.9726.9253.7 mm252.9 mm
2026-07-13900.0739.0253.7 mm253.6 mm
2026-07-14916.0751.3253.7 mm254.4 mm
2026-07-15933.4763.6253.7 mm256.0 mm
2026-07-16950.6776.0253.7 mm257.2 mm
2026-07-17968.9788.4253.8 mm257.7 mm
2026-07-18987.1801.0253.8 mm258.2 mm
2026-07-191005.3814.1254.2 mm258.7 mm
2026-07-201023.9827.0254.5 mm259.1 mm
2026-07-211042.4840.1255.0 mm259.6 mm
2026-07-221058.1853.4255.2 mm260.3 mm
2026-07-231072.9866.8255.3 mm261.5 mm
2026-07-241085.5880.2255.8 mm263.2 mm
2026-07-251098.3893.3255.8 mm265.2 mm
2026-07-261113.5906.1256.9 mm267.4 mm
2026-07-271129.9919.1259.5 mm268.1 mm
2026-07-281146.2932.5260.1 mm269.0 mm
2026-07-291163.6946.0260.1 mm270.1 mm
2026-07-301181.3959.4260.3 mm271.0 mm
2026-07-311198.5972.7260.3 mm272.1 mm
2026-08-011215.8986.0260.4 mm273.2 mm
2026-08-021233.1999.8261.5 mm274.0 mm
2026-08-031250.51013.7261.7 mm274.9 mm
2026-08-041268.71027.6261.7 mm275.8 mm
2026-08-051286.61041.3262.9 mm276.7 mm
2026-08-061304.11054.8263.2 mm277.7 mm
2026-08-071321.41068.3263.9 mm278.6 mm
2026-08-081338.61082.1264.3 mm279.4 mm
2026-08-091355.51096.1264.5 mm280.2 mm
2026-08-101372.71109.9264.5 mm281.2 mm
2026-08-111390.31123.5265.2 mm282.6 mm
2026-08-121407.91136.7265.6 mm283.3 mm
2026-08-131424.91149.9267.2 mm283.8 mm
2026-08-141441.51163.1268.1 mm284.3 mm
2026-08-151457.61176.5270.0 mm285.3 mm
2026-08-161473.61189.4271.2 mm286.5 mm
2026-08-171489.11202.4273.3 mm287.0 mm
2026-08-181503.01215.7275.0 mm287.5 mm
2026-08-191518.41229.2275.1 mm288.5 mm
2026-08-201534.41243.1275.1 mm289.2 mm
2026-08-211550.41256.8275.3 mm290.2 mm
2026-08-221566.61270.2276.0 mm291.4 mm
2026-08-231582.81283.4276.1 mm292.2 mm

Forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC

10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record

GDD accumulation
136 GDDvs 111 GDD average
Total rainfall
4.2 mmvs 19.8 mm average

No unusually hot or wet period stands out in the short-range forecast.

Sun8/30 31°Cavg 26°C 21°Cavg 19°C +15 GDD 0.1 mm
Mon8/31 28°Cavg 26°C 20°Cavg 18°C +13 GDD 0.2 mm
Tue9/1 30°Cavg 25°C 18°Cavg 18°C +13 GDD 1.2 mm
Wed9/2 29°Cavg 25°C 18°Cavg 18°C +13 GDD 0.6 mm
Thu9/3 29°Cavg 25°C 18°Cavg 17°C +12 GDD 1.6 mm
Fri9/4 31°Cavg 25°C 16°Cavg 17°C +13 GDD 0.0 mm
Sat9/5 32°Cavg 24°C 19°Cavg 17°C +14 GDD 0.0 mm
Sun9/6 32°Cavg 24°C 20°Cavg 17°C +14 GDD 0.1 mm
Mon9/7 33°Cavg 24°C 20°Cavg 17°C +15 GDD 0.4 mm
Tue9/8 30°Cavg 24°C 20°Cavg 17°C +14 GDD 0.0 mm

Data and methods

Show data sources and model assumptions

Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.

Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.

This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.

Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed August 23, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.

The Southern Apennines model uses a March 15–October 31 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 35°C.