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Climate change atlas

Observed change since 1991

Compare changes in heat, rain, frost, and dry spells across wine regions.

Last Updated August 20, 2026 · common vintage window 1991–2025

Growing-season mean temperature Observed change per decade. Red indicates increase and blue indicates decrease. Corsica: +0.65 °C per decade Trentino–Alto Adige: +0.59 °C per decade Rioja: +0.59 °C per decade Catalonia: +0.57 °C per decade Piedmont: +0.56 °C per decade Languedoc, Roussillon & Provence: +0.55 °C per decade Tuscany: +0.54 °C per decade Bierzo & Valdeorras: +0.53 °C per decade Champagne: +0.52 °C per decade Castilla y León: +0.52 °C per decade Loire Valley: +0.52 °C per decade Central Sicily: +0.52 °C per decade Sardinia: +0.50 °C per decade Umbria & Marche: +0.50 °C per decade Rhône Valley: +0.50 °C per decade Abruzzo: +0.48 °C per decade Southeast Spain: +0.48 °C per decade Heathcote & Rutherglen: +0.47 °C per decade Alsace & Jura: +0.47 °C per decade Southern Apennines: +0.47 °C per decade Po Valley & Northeast Italy: +0.45 °C per decade Tasmania: +0.42 °C per decade Yakima & Central Columbia Basin: +0.42 °C per decade Puglia: +0.41 °C per decade Jerez & Sherry: +0.40 °C per decade Bordeaux: +0.39 °C per decade Columbia Gorge: +0.38 °C per decade Burgundy: +0.38 °C per decade Etna: +0.37 °C per decade Rías Baixas: +0.37 °C per decade Hunter Valley: +0.36 °C per decade Walla Walla Valley: +0.34 °C per decade Adelaide Hills: +0.33 °C per decade Yarra Valley & Mornington Peninsula: +0.33 °C per decade Lodi: +0.32 °C per decade Santa Cruz Mountains: +0.32 °C per decade Coonawarra: +0.31 °C per decade Barossa, Eden & Clare Valleys: +0.30 °C per decade Southern Oregon: +0.30 °C per decade McLaren Vale: +0.27 °C per decade Willamette Valley: +0.23 °C per decade Sonoma & Mendocino: +0.22 °C per decade Paso Robles & Santa Barbara County: +0.22 °C per decade Napa Valley: +0.17 °C per decade Margaret River & Great Southern: +0.09 °C per decade
DecreaseIncrease

Growing-season mean temperature

Change per decade with a 95% confidence interval.

RegionTrend95% intervalYears
CorsicaFrance +0.65 +0.50 to +0.79 35
Trentino–Alto AdigeItaly +0.59 +0.49 to +0.69 35
RiojaSpain +0.59 +0.43 to +0.75 35
CataloniaSpain +0.57 +0.43 to +0.71 35
PiedmontItaly +0.56 +0.39 to +0.73 35
Languedoc, Roussillon & ProvenceFrance +0.55 +0.44 to +0.65 35
TuscanyItaly +0.54 +0.42 to +0.67 35
Bierzo & ValdeorrasSpain +0.53 +0.38 to +0.68 35
ChampagneFrance +0.52 +0.40 to +0.65 35
Castilla y LeónSpain +0.52 +0.40 to +0.65 35
Loire ValleyFrance +0.52 +0.39 to +0.66 35
Central SicilyItaly +0.52 +0.30 to +0.74 35
SardiniaItaly +0.50 +0.30 to +0.71 35
Umbria & MarcheItaly +0.50 +0.35 to +0.66 35
Rhône ValleyFrance +0.50 +0.40 to +0.60 35
AbruzzoItaly +0.48 +0.30 to +0.65 35
Southeast SpainSpain +0.48 +0.29 to +0.66 35
Heathcote & RutherglenAustralia +0.47 +0.23 to +0.72 35
Alsace & JuraFrance +0.47 +0.36 to +0.58 35
Southern ApenninesItaly +0.47 +0.29 to +0.64 35
Po Valley & Northeast ItalyItaly +0.45 +0.34 to +0.56 35
TasmaniaAustralia +0.42 +0.28 to +0.56 35
Yakima & Central Columbia BasinUnited States +0.42 +0.21 to +0.62 35
PugliaItaly +0.41 +0.25 to +0.57 35
Jerez & SherrySpain +0.40 +0.23 to +0.57 35
BordeauxFrance +0.39 +0.22 to +0.55 35
Columbia GorgeUnited States +0.38 +0.19 to +0.56 35
BurgundyFrance +0.38 +0.23 to +0.53 35
EtnaItaly +0.37 +0.20 to +0.54 35
Rías BaixasSpain +0.37 +0.24 to +0.50 35
Hunter ValleyAustralia +0.36 +0.17 to +0.55 35
Walla Walla ValleyUnited States +0.34 +0.17 to +0.52 35
Adelaide HillsAustralia +0.33 +0.11 to +0.56 35
Yarra Valley & Mornington PeninsulaAustralia +0.33 +0.10 to +0.56 35
LodiUnited States +0.32 +0.15 to +0.50 35
Santa Cruz MountainsUnited States +0.32 +0.15 to +0.49 35
CoonawarraAustralia +0.31 +0.14 to +0.47 35
Barossa, Eden & Clare ValleysAustralia +0.30 +0.07 to +0.53 35
Southern OregonUnited States +0.30 +0.17 to +0.43 35
McLaren ValeAustralia +0.27 +0.09 to +0.44 35
Willamette ValleyUnited States +0.23 +0.04 to +0.43 35
Sonoma & MendocinoUnited States +0.22 +0.06 to +0.39 35
Paso Robles & Santa Barbara CountyUnited States +0.22 +0.02 to +0.42 35
Napa ValleyUnited States +0.17 +0.04 to +0.30 35
Margaret River & Great SouthernAustralia +0.09 -0.04 to +0.21 35

Muted rows have intervals that include zero; their trends are not statistically significant.

1991–2075

Projected climate

One combined projection weights SSP2-4.5 at 70% and SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 at 15% each.

Growing-season mean temperature, 2041-2060 projected p50 change A zero-centered map of the selected weighted projection compared with each model's 1991–2020 baseline. Red indicates increase and blue indicates decrease. Puglia: +1.91 °C Trentino–Alto Adige: +1.86 °C Po Valley & Northeast Italy: +1.86 °C Castilla y León: +1.86 °C Piedmont: +1.85 °C Tuscany: +1.84 °C Southern Apennines: +1.83 °C Abruzzo: +1.80 °C Sardinia: +1.80 °C Umbria & Marche: +1.76 °C Etna: +1.76 °C Walla Walla Valley: +1.75 °C Rhône Valley: +1.74 °C Yakima & Central Columbia Basin: +1.72 °C Languedoc, Roussillon & Provence: +1.68 °C Central Sicily: +1.68 °C Columbia Gorge: +1.68 °C Rioja: +1.64 °C Southeast Spain: +1.62 °C Burgundy: +1.62 °C Catalonia: +1.60 °C Alsace & Jura: +1.60 °C Bierzo & Valdeorras: +1.58 °C Corsica: +1.57 °C Southern Oregon: +1.54 °C Loire Valley: +1.50 °C Lodi: +1.48 °C Willamette Valley: +1.45 °C Champagne: +1.44 °C Bordeaux: +1.41 °C Heathcote & Rutherglen: +1.37 °C Sonoma & Mendocino: +1.35 °C Napa Valley: +1.34 °C Paso Robles & Santa Barbara County: +1.33 °C Jerez & Sherry: +1.30 °C Hunter Valley: +1.27 °C Santa Cruz Mountains: +1.27 °C Rías Baixas: +1.25 °C Barossa, Eden & Clare Valleys: +1.19 °C Yarra Valley & Mornington Peninsula: +1.15 °C Tasmania: +1.09 °C Adelaide Hills: +1.08 °C McLaren Vale: +1.05 °C Coonawarra: +1.00 °C Margaret River & Great Southern: +0.92 °C
Decrease from baselineIncrease from baseline

Growing-season mean temperature, 2041-2060

The selected 50th percentile is shown with the central 80% model range. Values are changes from each model’s 1991–2020 average.

Regionp50p10–p90Models / pathways
PugliaItaly +1.91 °C +1.31 to +2.70 °C 25 / 3
Trentino–Alto AdigeItaly +1.86 °C +1.23 to +2.65 °C 25 / 3
Po Valley & Northeast ItalyItaly +1.86 °C +1.26 to +2.68 °C 25 / 3
Castilla y LeónSpain +1.86 °C +1.38 to +2.69 °C 25 / 3
PiedmontItaly +1.85 °C +1.26 to +2.61 °C 25 / 3
TuscanyItaly +1.84 °C +1.31 to +2.67 °C 25 / 3
Southern ApenninesItaly +1.83 °C +1.24 to +2.61 °C 25 / 3
AbruzzoItaly +1.80 °C +1.19 to +2.58 °C 25 / 3
SardiniaItaly +1.80 °C +1.18 to +2.44 °C 25 / 3
Umbria & MarcheItaly +1.76 °C +1.26 to +2.70 °C 25 / 3
EtnaItaly +1.76 °C +1.12 to +2.49 °C 25 / 3
Walla Walla ValleyUnited States +1.75 °C +1.16 to +2.82 °C 25 / 3
Rhône ValleyFrance +1.74 °C +1.19 to +2.58 °C 25 / 3
Yakima & Central Columbia BasinUnited States +1.72 °C +1.12 to +2.72 °C 25 / 3
Languedoc, Roussillon & ProvenceFrance +1.68 °C +1.20 to +2.48 °C 25 / 3
Central SicilyItaly +1.68 °C +1.10 to +2.40 °C 25 / 3
Columbia GorgeUnited States +1.68 °C +1.15 to +2.70 °C 25 / 3
RiojaSpain +1.64 °C +1.13 to +2.47 °C 25 / 3
Southeast SpainSpain +1.62 °C +1.18 to +2.36 °C 25 / 3
BurgundyFrance +1.62 °C +1.03 to +2.63 °C 25 / 3
CataloniaSpain +1.60 °C +1.17 to +2.39 °C 25 / 3
Alsace & JuraFrance +1.60 °C +0.96 to +2.59 °C 25 / 3
Bierzo & ValdeorrasSpain +1.58 °C +1.08 to +2.24 °C 25 / 3
CorsicaFrance +1.57 °C +1.11 to +2.50 °C 25 / 3
Southern OregonUnited States +1.54 °C +1.13 to +2.52 °C 25 / 3
Loire ValleyFrance +1.50 °C +0.90 to +2.58 °C 25 / 3
LodiUnited States +1.48 °C +1.09 to +2.20 °C 25 / 3
Willamette ValleyUnited States +1.45 °C +1.02 to +2.34 °C 25 / 3
ChampagneFrance +1.44 °C +0.87 to +2.57 °C 25 / 3
BordeauxFrance +1.41 °C +0.94 to +2.42 °C 25 / 3
Heathcote & RutherglenAustralia +1.37 °C +0.83 to +1.81 °C 25 / 3
Sonoma & MendocinoUnited States +1.35 °C +1.00 to +2.10 °C 25 / 3
Napa ValleyUnited States +1.34 °C +1.04 to +2.14 °C 25 / 3
Paso Robles & Santa Barbara CountyUnited States +1.33 °C +0.98 to +1.99 °C 25 / 3
Jerez & SherrySpain +1.30 °C +0.94 to +1.86 °C 25 / 3
Hunter ValleyAustralia +1.27 °C +0.88 to +1.87 °C 25 / 3
Santa Cruz MountainsUnited States +1.27 °C +0.89 to +2.02 °C 25 / 3
Rías BaixasSpain +1.25 °C +0.73 to +2.06 °C 25 / 3
Barossa, Eden & Clare ValleysAustralia +1.19 °C +0.74 to +1.58 °C 25 / 3
Yarra Valley & Mornington PeninsulaAustralia +1.15 °C +0.73 to +1.60 °C 25 / 3
TasmaniaAustralia +1.09 °C +0.59 to +1.64 °C 25 / 3
Adelaide HillsAustralia +1.08 °C +0.68 to +1.43 °C 25 / 3
McLaren ValeAustralia +1.05 °C +0.67 to +1.39 °C 25 / 3
CoonawarraAustralia +1.00 °C +0.58 to +1.34 °C 25 / 3
Margaret River & Great SouthernAustralia +0.92 °C +0.61 to +1.27 °C 25 / 3

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Methods and limitations

Observed record

Annual measures use the combined ERA5 and eligible GHCN station records where available, each region’s configured growing and spring-frost windows, a 90% window-completeness threshold, and at least 24 eligible years. Rankings end at the latest complete vintage shared by every published region. Because Australian vintages cross calendar years, northern rankings can lag their own available record by up to a year.

Slopes are OLS estimates per decade. The 95% intervals use a Newey–West covariance estimate with the prescribed sample-size lag rule. Constant series are reported as no recorded variation rather than as a spurious precise zero trend.

Projection record

NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0 model changes are calculated against each model and pathway’s 1991–2020 baseline before ensemble percentiles are formed. Public projections combine the three pathways with subjective weights: 70% SSP2-4.5, 15% SSP1-2.6, and 15% SSP3-7.0. Each displayed percentile is the weighted average of that same percentile from the three 25-model pathway ensembles. The weights are editorial choices, not probabilities assigned by CMIP6 or the IPCC. Historical 1991–2014 model values join the combined projection from 2015.

Models retain native standard, no-leap, or 360-day calendars. Day-count measures therefore cover marginally different season lengths; per-model anomaly framing limits, but does not erase, that distinction. The 2061–2075 comparison is a 15-year mean and is noisier than the two 20-year periods.

Climate scenarios use NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) v2.0, prepared by the Climate Analytics Group and NASA Ames Research Center using NASA Earth Exchange and distributed by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation. Weather & Vines spatially subsets, aggregates, and converts the source fields; NASA and the source modeling groups do not endorse these results. Source accessed August 23, 2026. Source files and these derived projection data are available under CC BY-SA 4.0.

Model roster (25): ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5, BCC-CSM2-MR, CMCC-ESM2, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, CanESM5, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, FGOALS-g3, GFDL-ESM4, GISS-E2-1-G, INM-CM4-8, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, KACE-1-0-G, MIROC-ES2L, MIROC6, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM, NorESM2-MM, TaiESM1, UKESM1-0-LL.

Inventory exclusions (10): CESM2, CESM2-WACCM, CMCC-CM2-SR5, GFDL-CM4, GFDL-CM4_gr2, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, IITM-ESM, KIOST-ESM, NESM3. Each lacked one complete realization/grid across the required historical, variable, pathway, and year inventory. See the NASA v2 technical note for corrections, limitations, and source-model issues.