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Portugal · Multi-region weather view

Douro

Terraced river vineyards spanning Baixo Corgo, Cima Corgo and Douro Superior.

Hot, dry summers intensify eastward while elevation and exposure create large local differences. Heat accumulation, water stress and rain near harvest are central to the season.

Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Sep 13, 2026.

Current conditions

Observations through Sep 21, 2026 · 03:00 UTC

Temperature17.6°C
Dew Point8.1°C
Relative Humidity54%
24h Rainfall0.0 mmmodeled IFS total through Sep 20

Vintage explorer

Compare this vintage · View 2004 across regions →

Slightly warmer and significantly drier than normal.

Mean temperature17.2°C
Temperature anomaly-0.1°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days1608base 10°C
Hot days0≥ 35°C

What stood out in 2004

Less rain often lowers disease pressure, but vines may depend more on stored soil water or irrigation. A freeze after budbreak can damage new growth and reduce the crop.

Drier than baseline · Moderate confidence

Growing-season precipitation was 70 mm below the 1991–2020 baseline.

Less rain often lowers disease pressure, but vines may depend more on stored soil water or irrigation.

Spring freeze recorded · Moderate confidence

The regional record had 1 spring day(s) at or below -2°C.

A freeze after budbreak can damage new growth and reduce the crop.

How unusual was 2004?

The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.

Growing-season temperature

16th coolest of 35 vintages Cooler than 19 of 34 other vintages 17.2°C

Growing-season rainfall

9th driest of 35 vintages Drier than 26 of 34 other vintages 257.0 mm

Heat accumulation

16th lowest of 35 vintages Lower than 19 of 34 other vintages 1608 GDD

Hot days

Fewest of 35 vintages Fewer than 23 of 34 other vintages 0 days

2004 month by month

Compared with 1991–2020

Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.

Frost watch Growing season Harvest window
  1. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2004 14 GDD
    Typical 40 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 55.0 mm
    Typical 71.3 mm
    2004 freezing days
    2
    Typical
    1.4

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

  2. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2004 53 GDD
    Typical 72 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 43.1 mm
    Typical 75.3 mm
    2004 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.2

    Drier than the typical month.

  3. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2004 147 GDD
    Typical 163 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 58.4 mm
    Typical 66.8 mm
    2004 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.0

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  4. 1–30
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2004 347 GDD
    Typical 274 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 12.3 mm
    Typical 29.1 mm

    Heat accumulation ran ahead of the typical month.

  5. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2004 365 GDD
    Typical 363 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 6.5 mm
    Typical 16.8 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

  6. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2004 321 GDD
    Typical 361 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 57.4 mm
    Typical 19.4 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

  7. 1–30
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2004 281 GDD
    Typical 259 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 25.2 mm
    Typical 44.3 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

  8. 1–15
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2004 82 GDD
    Typical 83 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 34.5 mm
    Typical 38.5 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

View milestone calendar data as a table
Month2004 GDDTypical GDD2004 rainfallTypical rainfall2004 freezing daysTypical freezing days
March 2004 14 GDD 40 GDD 55.0 mm 71.3 mm 21.4
April 2004 53 GDD 72 GDD 43.1 mm 75.3 mm 00.2
May 2004 147 GDD 163 GDD 58.4 mm 66.8 mm 00.0
June 2004 347 GDD 274 GDD 12.3 mm 29.1 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
July 2004 365 GDD 363 GDD 6.5 mm 16.8 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
August 2004 321 GDD 361 GDD 57.4 mm 19.4 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
September 2004 281 GDD 259 GDD 25.2 mm 44.3 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
October 2004 82 GDD 83 GDD 34.5 mm 38.5 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
Calendar data and method

Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.

Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Sep 13, 2026.

Replay the 2004 growing season

215 daily regional observations

Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.

Replay data and method

Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Sep 12, 2026.

The daily weather replay is complete, but the separate weather-event scan is not currently available for this vintage.

Closest weather matches

These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.

  1. Closest match

    2019

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Growing degree days.

    Hot-day count
    the same: 0 days
    Growing degree days
    higher: 6 GDD

    Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — less rain

    View 2019 →

  2. Second closest

    2012

    Most alike in Growing-season precipitation and Spring frost exposure.

    Growing-season precipitation
    more rain: 20.5 mm
    Spring frost exposure
    fewer frost-exposure days: 1 day

    Largest difference: Hot-day count — more hot days

    View 2012 →

  3. Third closest

    1996

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Harvest precipitation.

    Hot-day count
    the same: 0 days
    Harvest precipitation
    less rain: 8.8 mm

    Largest difference: Growing degree days — lower

    View 1996 →
How similar years are calculated

Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.

Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Hot-day count (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%); Spring frost exposure (10%).

Calculated distances: 2019 0.315; 2012 0.445; 1996 0.533.

Growing-season temperature anomalyCompared with 1991-2020
Temperature anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 A line above zero indicates a warmer growing season than the 1991–2020 baseline. Select a point to inspect that vintage. +2.3°C −2.3°C 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
Growing-season rainfall anomaly
Rainfall anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 Bars show millimeters above or below the 1991–2020 growing-season baseline. Select a bar to inspect that vintage. +300 mm −300 mm 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
View historical chart data as a table
YearTemperature anomalyRainfall anomalyHot days
1991+0.2°C-143 mm9
1992-0.5°C-41 mm5
1993-1.5°C+287 mm2
1994-0.6°C-37 mm0
1995+0.5°C-102 mm1
1996-0.5°C-21 mm0
1997+0.3°C+56 mm0
1998-0.2°C+136 mm3
1999-0.2°C+75 mm0
2000-0.8°C+88 mm0
2001-0.1°C+11 mm1
2002-0.6°C+11 mm0
2003+0.7°C+69 mm6
2004-0.1°C-70 mm0
2005+0.9°C-88 mm4
2006+0.9°C+25 mm2
2007-0.8°C-9 mm1
2008-1.2°C+36 mm0
2009+0.2°C-141 mm0
2010+0.4°C+21 mm1
2011+0.8°C-114 mm0
2012-0.4°C-50 mm2
2013-0.1°C+58 mm6
2014-0.2°C+80 mm0
2015+0.5°C-21 mm1
2016+0.1°C+106 mm3
2017+1.2°C-162 mm4
2018+0.1°C+45 mm4
2019+0.1°C-74 mm0
2020+0.7°C-30 mm2
2021-0.2°C-11 mm1
2022+1.6°C-98 mm13
2023+1.2°C-31 mm4
2024+0.4°C+80 mm4
2025+1.1°C-44 mm14
2026+2.0°C-131 mm7

winter

7.4°C

+0.5°C vs baseline

142 mm rain · -106 mm

spring

11.4°C

-1.0°C vs baseline

156 mm rain · -57 mm

summer

21.2°C

+0.4°C vs baseline

76 mm rain · +11 mm

harvest

18.6°C

+0.1°C vs baseline

84 mm rain · -11 mm

Weather events

1991–present

Climate change

Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.

Compare regions

Observed record

Historical trends, 1991–2025

Growing degree days changed +73.7 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +46.7 to +100.7 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.

How it is measured: Across the March 15–October 15 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.

Growing degree days · annual change from the 1991–2020 average1991–2025

Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.

View annual growing degree days data
VintageGrowing degree daysChange from 1991–2020
19911648 GDD+46 GDD
19921515 GDD-87 GDD
19931296 GDD-307 GDD
19941474 GDD-128 GDD
19951708 GDD+105 GDD
19961490 GDD-112 GDD
19971641 GDD+39 GDD
19981577 GDD-25 GDD
19991551 GDD-52 GDD
20001465 GDD-137 GDD
20011574 GDD-29 GDD
20021476 GDD-127 GDD
20031722 GDD+119 GDD
20041608 GDD+6 GDD
20051768 GDD+165 GDD
20061758 GDD+156 GDD
20071441 GDD-161 GDD
20081365 GDD-237 GDD
20091647 GDD+44 GDD
20101685 GDD+83 GDD
20111749 GDD+147 GDD
20121538 GDD-64 GDD
20131597 GDD-5 GDD
20141558 GDD-44 GDD
20151703 GDD+101 GDD
20161639 GDD+36 GDD
20171867 GDD+265 GDD
20181655 GDD+53 GDD
20191614 GDD+12 GDD
20201743 GDD+141 GDD
20211538 GDD-65 GDD
20221925 GDD+323 GDD
20231840 GDD+237 GDD
20241693 GDD+91 GDD
20251821 GDD+218 GDD
Growing-season mean temperature
+0.36 °C per decade 95% interval +0.22 to +0.50
Growing degree days
+73.68 GDD per decade 95% interval +46.69 to +100.67
Growing-season precipitation
-14.73 mm per decade 95% interval -37.08 to +7.62
Hot days
+1.03 days per decade 95% interval -0.57 to +2.63
Spring frost days
+0.08 days per decade 95% interval -0.37 to +0.53
Longest dry spell
+4.54 days per decade 95% interval +1.06 to +8.02

Last Updated September 12, 2026

Model ensemble

Projected climate through 2075

Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.

Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.

PeriodWeighted medianWeighted central 80%Models per pathway
2021-2040+1.0°C+0.6 to +1.6°C25
2041-2060+1.6°C+1.2 to +2.4°C25
2061-2075+2.1°C+1.6 to +3.1°C25
How pathways are combined

For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Compare projection measures across regions

Typical year · 1991–2020

When to visit

This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.

Deterministic IFS forecast

Next ten days

Detailed forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · model run Sep 20, 2026 at 00:00 UTC · retrieved Sep 21, 2026 at 03:17 UTC

Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.

DateMonTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTueWed
High 33°C 33°C 34°C 33°C 29°C 26°C 27°C 27°C 28°C 17°C
Low 16°C 16°C 17°C 16°C 13°C 12°C 15°C 15°C 16°C 17°C
Rain 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.6 mm 0.4 mm 0.0 mm

Across the typical year: Late July has the warmest median afternoon high (29.1°C); Early January has the coolest (9.8°C). Wet days are most frequent in Late October (44%) and least frequent in Late July (9%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lowsMedians and middle 50% of daily readings

Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lows for Douro Median daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 24 early and late-month periods under the 1991–2020 baseline. Neutral bands show the 25th to 75th percentile. -5°C5°C15°C25°C35°C JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
How often a day is wetShare of days with at least 1 mm of rain

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Wet-day frequency through the typical year for Douro The fraction of days receiving at least one millimeter of rain in each early and late-month period under the 1991–2020 baseline. 0%25%50%75%100% JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
View all 24 periods as a table

Scroll horizontally to view all columns.

Douro typical weather by half-month, 1991–2020
PeriodAfternoon high, median (middle 50%)Overnight low, median (middle 50%)Wet-day frequencyPeriod rain, median (middle 50%)
Jan 1–159.8°C (7.9–11.3°C)2.7°C (-0.3–5.7°C)39%36.6 mm (13.9–82.1 mm)
Jan 16–3110.0°C (8.5–11.5°C)2.2°C (0.1–5.1°C)34%36.9 mm (7.8–51.7 mm)
Feb 1–1511.7°C (9.4–13.6°C)2.9°C (0.9–5.5°C)31%19.1 mm (9.6–43.7 mm)
Feb 16–2912.2°C (9.9–14.8°C)3.1°C (1.1–5.2°C)31%16.8 mm (6.9–38.3 mm)
Mar 1–1514.0°C (11.8–17.2°C)5.1°C (3.0–6.7°C)30%18.6 mm (7.6–37.9 mm)
Mar 16–3115.3°C (12.5–18.9°C)6.2°C (4.2–7.6°C)36%29.0 mm (9.4–54.6 mm)
Apr 1–1515.9°C (13.0–19.8°C)6.5°C (4.3–8.5°C)40%33.5 mm (20.7–56.6 mm)
Apr 16–3016.4°C (13.6–20.4°C)7.6°C (5.6–9.4°C)42%30.8 mm (18.0–51.6 mm)
May 1–1518.6°C (15.8–22.4°C)9.0°C (7.2–10.8°C)40%34.8 mm (14.7–45.9 mm)
May 16–3121.7°C (18.0–25.4°C)10.9°C (9.0–12.7°C)34%26.1 mm (12.0–49.7 mm)
Jun 1–1523.6°C (19.9–27.2°C)12.3°C (10.5–14.3°C)24%12.6 mm (6.1–24.5 mm)
Jun 16–3026.6°C (23.4–29.7°C)14.2°C (12.3–16.0°C)19%9.5 mm (6.2–15.9 mm)
Jul 1–1527.4°C (24.4–30.4°C)14.6°C (13.0–16.6°C)15%6.2 mm (3.8–13.9 mm)
Jul 16–3129.1°C (26.7–31.5°C)15.9°C (14.2–17.3°C)9%4.8 mm (2.3–8.3 mm)
Aug 1–1528.7°C (26.1–31.7°C)15.5°C (13.8–17.2°C)13%4.9 mm (0.9–9.1 mm)
Aug 16–3127.7°C (25.2–30.1°C)14.9°C (13.4–16.5°C)16%10.7 mm (1.9–18.9 mm)
Sep 1–1526.2°C (23.5–28.3°C)14.0°C (12.4–15.4°C)16%8.2 mm (2.9–23.4 mm)
Sep 16–3022.7°C (19.9–25.7°C)12.2°C (10.5–13.9°C)27%27.1 mm (8.0–42.2 mm)
Oct 1–1520.5°C (17.5–23.1°C)10.6°C (8.8–12.6°C)31%28.9 mm (18.1–46.8 mm)
Oct 16–3117.3°C (15.0–19.7°C)9.8°C (7.0–11.9°C)44%62.8 mm (32.0–92.3 mm)
Nov 1–1514.4°C (12.3–16.2°C)6.7°C (4.4–9.3°C)39%39.9 mm (24.5–69.4 mm)
Nov 16–3011.8°C (10.1–13.7°C)4.4°C (2.1–6.9°C)39%41.8 mm (14.0–68.4 mm)
Dec 1–1510.5°C (9.0–12.0°C)3.8°C (1.2–6.2°C)32%39.6 mm (23.6–57.0 mm)
Dec 16–319.8°C (8.3–11.4°C)2.9°C (0.1–6.4°C)38%37.2 mm (16.8–101.8 mm)

Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.

Historical climatology Last Updated September 12, 2026

Season to date

Growing season heat and rainfall

Mar 15–Sep 20, 2026

Compare this season across regions →

Growing degree days1710.2base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall196.1 mmweighted regional total
Cumulative growing degree daysBase 10°C

2026 season1991–2020 average

Growing degree days accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily mean temperature above 10 degrees Celsius from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 1710 GDD 0 Mar ’26AprMayJunJulAugSep
Cumulative growing-season rainfallRegional weighted mean

2026 season1991–2020 average

Rainfall accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily rainfall in millimeters from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 255 mm 0 Mar ’26AprMayJunJulAugSep
View growing-season accumulation data
DateSeason GDD1991–2020 average GDDSeason rainfall1991–2020 average rainfall
2026-03-150.01.40.0 mm1.2 mm
2026-03-161.73.10.0 mm2.8 mm
2026-03-175.14.60.0 mm4.8 mm
2026-03-188.66.50.3 mm5.7 mm
2026-03-1912.88.50.7 mm7.5 mm
2026-03-2014.910.42.8 mm9.2 mm
2026-03-2117.111.93.0 mm11.2 mm
2026-03-2219.613.53.0 mm13.0 mm
2026-03-2321.915.03.0 mm15.3 mm
2026-03-2424.016.73.0 mm17.6 mm
2026-03-2527.418.13.0 mm20.4 mm
2026-03-2627.819.33.0 mm24.0 mm
2026-03-2728.420.83.0 mm25.6 mm
2026-03-2829.222.03.0 mm27.7 mm
2026-03-2929.223.73.0 mm31.0 mm
2026-03-3030.225.43.0 mm34.0 mm
2026-03-3133.927.23.0 mm36.8 mm
2026-04-0136.828.93.0 mm40.8 mm
2026-04-0239.630.33.0 mm44.1 mm
2026-04-0342.931.93.0 mm47.2 mm
2026-04-0449.033.53.0 mm49.5 mm
2026-04-0555.935.63.0 mm51.7 mm
2026-04-0664.538.04.4 mm54.0 mm
2026-04-0768.340.514.1 mm55.6 mm
2026-04-0869.842.823.5 mm57.6 mm
2026-04-0975.545.224.0 mm60.2 mm
2026-04-1085.047.524.2 mm62.9 mm
2026-04-1188.449.924.3 mm64.6 mm
2026-04-1288.451.924.5 mm66.8 mm
2026-04-1388.454.325.0 mm68.6 mm
2026-04-1491.556.725.2 mm72.0 mm
2026-04-1595.159.025.2 mm75.2 mm
2026-04-16100.161.225.3 mm78.0 mm
2026-04-17105.763.425.3 mm80.2 mm
2026-04-18113.465.825.4 mm83.9 mm
2026-04-19120.968.025.7 mm88.2 mm
2026-04-20128.370.625.8 mm90.4 mm
2026-04-21137.073.128.4 mm93.1 mm
2026-04-22142.775.528.6 mm95.7 mm
2026-04-23149.678.430.2 mm97.5 mm
2026-04-24155.981.431.1 mm100.0 mm
2026-04-25162.584.635.3 mm103.2 mm
2026-04-26170.187.536.4 mm105.1 mm
2026-04-27178.390.637.2 mm106.8 mm
2026-04-28185.893.646.5 mm108.0 mm
2026-04-29190.396.462.8 mm110.2 mm
2026-04-30194.499.363.1 mm112.2 mm
2026-05-01199.3102.263.2 mm114.1 mm
2026-05-02203.5105.869.1 mm115.8 mm
2026-05-03207.0109.873.0 mm117.6 mm
2026-05-04209.3113.874.0 mm119.8 mm
2026-05-05209.9117.675.3 mm122.3 mm
2026-05-06211.5121.475.4 mm124.2 mm
2026-05-07214.7125.476.3 mm126.3 mm
2026-05-08217.3129.783.0 mm129.5 mm
2026-05-09219.9134.192.3 mm131.6 mm
2026-05-10222.1138.699.9 mm134.3 mm
2026-05-11225.6142.8107.2 mm137.2 mm
2026-05-12228.6147.2116.4 mm140.0 mm
2026-05-13232.0151.7117.9 mm142.0 mm
2026-05-14234.8156.3117.9 mm144.5 mm
2026-05-15236.8161.5118.4 mm146.0 mm
2026-05-16239.3167.1118.4 mm148.8 mm
2026-05-17242.3172.6118.6 mm151.5 mm
2026-05-18245.5177.9118.6 mm153.7 mm
2026-05-19250.0182.8119.1 mm155.7 mm
2026-05-20258.0188.0119.1 mm157.6 mm
2026-05-21269.7193.9119.1 mm159.4 mm
2026-05-22283.1200.1120.0 mm162.4 mm
2026-05-23294.2206.7125.0 mm164.6 mm
2026-05-24306.0213.1129.7 mm167.0 mm
2026-05-25318.7219.3130.0 mm168.8 mm
2026-05-26330.7225.9130.0 mm170.3 mm
2026-05-27345.6232.6130.7 mm171.9 mm
2026-05-28360.0239.6130.7 mm173.6 mm
2026-05-29372.9247.0130.9 mm175.7 mm
2026-05-30384.9254.6130.9 mm177.4 mm
2026-05-31396.2262.5130.9 mm178.9 mm
2026-06-01406.8270.5130.9 mm180.7 mm
2026-06-02415.1278.4131.0 mm181.3 mm
2026-06-03422.9286.3131.1 mm181.7 mm
2026-06-04429.3293.7131.2 mm182.6 mm
2026-06-05433.7300.9131.2 mm183.7 mm
2026-06-06442.0308.6131.3 mm185.8 mm
2026-06-07451.6316.5131.3 mm187.1 mm
2026-06-08459.8323.9131.3 mm188.4 mm
2026-06-09468.5331.0131.3 mm190.3 mm
2026-06-10476.8338.0131.3 mm191.7 mm
2026-06-11488.1346.0131.3 mm192.2 mm
2026-06-12502.5354.8131.3 mm192.9 mm
2026-06-13517.1364.0132.5 mm193.5 mm
2026-06-14530.3373.1134.8 mm195.2 mm
2026-06-15541.6382.3135.1 mm195.9 mm
2026-06-16554.2391.5135.3 mm197.2 mm
2026-06-17568.3400.8137.0 mm198.3 mm
2026-06-18582.3410.8138.5 mm198.9 mm
2026-06-19594.8421.2138.5 mm199.4 mm
2026-06-20609.2431.5138.7 mm199.9 mm
2026-06-21626.3441.9138.9 mm200.6 mm
2026-06-22643.2452.8140.2 mm201.2 mm
2026-06-23661.0463.3140.3 mm202.2 mm
2026-06-24677.4473.7141.5 mm202.8 mm
2026-06-25688.6484.3145.5 mm203.5 mm
2026-06-26700.4494.8146.9 mm204.0 mm
2026-06-27711.9505.2146.9 mm204.8 mm
2026-06-28722.9515.6146.9 mm205.7 mm
2026-06-29736.6526.1146.9 mm206.8 mm
2026-06-30751.7536.8146.9 mm208.1 mm
2026-07-01767.3546.8146.9 mm209.1 mm
2026-07-02782.4556.2146.9 mm209.7 mm
2026-07-03799.3565.9146.9 mm210.1 mm
2026-07-04816.9575.9146.9 mm210.9 mm
2026-07-05834.5585.9146.9 mm211.6 mm
2026-07-06852.1596.5147.0 mm212.3 mm
2026-07-07867.2607.3147.0 mm212.8 mm
2026-07-08881.8618.5147.0 mm213.9 mm
2026-07-09895.7630.3147.0 mm214.7 mm
2026-07-10909.5642.0147.1 mm215.0 mm
2026-07-11924.3653.5147.3 mm215.3 mm
2026-07-12935.2665.5148.0 mm215.6 mm
2026-07-13945.4677.6148.0 mm216.2 mm
2026-07-14957.6690.0148.2 mm216.7 mm
2026-07-15969.2702.2148.2 mm218.3 mm
2026-07-16980.4714.6148.7 mm219.3 mm
2026-07-17991.1727.2148.8 mm219.4 mm
2026-07-181003.4739.5148.9 mm219.5 mm
2026-07-191016.2751.9148.9 mm220.1 mm
2026-07-201029.0763.6148.9 mm220.4 mm
2026-07-211042.8775.4149.0 mm220.6 mm
2026-07-221056.9787.4149.0 mm221.4 mm
2026-07-231069.2799.8149.0 mm222.1 mm
2026-07-241079.1811.8149.9 mm222.5 mm
2026-07-251089.8824.0150.3 mm222.8 mm
2026-07-261100.9836.4150.3 mm223.1 mm
2026-07-271115.6848.9150.3 mm223.6 mm
2026-07-281131.9861.6150.3 mm223.8 mm
2026-07-291147.4874.4150.3 mm224.1 mm
2026-07-301160.8886.9150.3 mm224.5 mm
2026-07-311172.5899.4150.3 mm224.9 mm
2026-08-011186.6911.4150.3 mm225.2 mm
2026-08-021199.1923.5150.4 mm225.6 mm
2026-08-031210.7935.9150.6 mm226.0 mm
2026-08-041222.2948.3150.9 mm226.3 mm
2026-08-051234.9960.9150.9 mm226.5 mm
2026-08-061248.3973.5150.9 mm227.1 mm
2026-08-071261.7985.6150.9 mm228.0 mm
2026-08-081276.2997.4151.6 mm228.9 mm
2026-08-091288.31009.2151.6 mm229.7 mm
2026-08-101301.31021.1151.6 mm230.6 mm
2026-08-111315.61033.1151.6 mm231.0 mm
2026-08-121331.61045.1151.6 mm231.3 mm
2026-08-131347.71057.2151.6 mm231.4 mm
2026-08-141363.21069.5151.8 mm231.6 mm
2026-08-151377.41081.5152.2 mm232.1 mm
2026-08-161392.81093.1152.3 mm232.7 mm
2026-08-171409.91104.8152.3 mm233.6 mm
2026-08-181427.61116.5152.3 mm234.5 mm
2026-08-191442.71128.1152.4 mm234.8 mm
2026-08-201454.11139.9153.2 mm235.2 mm
2026-08-211463.71151.6153.2 mm235.5 mm
2026-08-221474.81163.0153.2 mm236.0 mm
2026-08-231486.21174.5153.7 mm236.5 mm
2026-08-241495.31185.7162.9 mm238.0 mm
2026-08-251505.01196.8165.1 mm238.8 mm
2026-08-261511.91207.6175.6 mm239.9 mm
2026-08-271516.71218.6190.4 mm241.4 mm
2026-08-281523.31229.3190.9 mm242.6 mm
2026-08-291531.81239.5190.9 mm243.1 mm
2026-08-301541.81250.1191.1 mm243.8 mm
2026-08-311550.51260.8191.1 mm244.3 mm
2026-09-011560.51271.3191.1 mm245.6 mm
2026-09-021572.91282.1191.1 mm246.0 mm
2026-09-031587.71293.0191.1 mm246.5 mm
2026-09-041602.51303.7191.1 mm247.0 mm
2026-09-051618.51313.8191.4 mm248.3 mm
2026-09-061633.11324.2191.4 mm249.3 mm
2026-09-071646.31333.9191.4 mm250.9 mm
2026-09-081656.31343.5196.0 mm252.3 mm
2026-09-091665.71353.1196.1 mm252.9 mm
2026-09-101673.51362.6196.1 mm253.5 mm
2026-09-111684.41372.1196.1 mm254.0 mm
2026-09-121696.71381.4196.1 mm254.3 mm
2026-09-131710.21390.2196.1 mm255.4 mm

Forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Sep 20, 2026 at 00:00 UTC

10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record

GDD accumulation
118 GDDvs 71 GDD average
Total rainfall
0.9 mmvs 21.1 mm average

No unusually hot or wet period stands out in the short-range forecast.

Mon9/21 33°Cavg 23°C 16°Cavg 13°C +14 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/22 33°Cavg 23°C 16°Cavg 12°C +14 GDD 0.0 mm
Wed9/23 34°Cavg 23°C 17°Cavg 12°C +15 GDD 0.0 mm
Thu9/24 33°Cavg 22°C 16°Cavg 12°C +14 GDD 0.0 mm
Fri9/25 29°Cavg 21°C 13°Cavg 11°C +10 GDD 0.0 mm
Sat9/26 26°Cavg 22°C 12°Cavg 11°C +9 GDD 0.0 mm
Sun9/27 27°Cavg 22°C 15°Cavg 11°C +11 GDD 0.0 mm
Mon9/28 27°Cavg 23°C 15°Cavg 12°C +11 GDD 0.6 mm
Tue9/29 28°Cavg 23°C 16°Cavg 12°C +12 GDD 0.4 mm
Wed9/30 17°Cavg 22°C 17°Cavg 12°C +7 GDD 0.0 mm

Data and methods

Show data sources and model assumptions

Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.

Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.

This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.

Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed September 20, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.

The Douro model uses a March 15–October 15 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 35°C.