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Italy · Multi-region weather view

Etna

High vineyards on the eastern and northern slopes of Mount Etna.

Elevation keeps nights cool and increases local rain compared with Sicily's lower interior.

Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Aug 20, 2026.

Current conditions

Observations through Aug 30, 2026 · 06:00 UTC

Temperature25.9°C
Dew Point11.4°C
Relative Humidity40%
24h Rainfall2.0 mmmodeled IFS total through Aug 29

Vintage explorer

Compare this vintage →

Moderately cooler and moderately wetter than normal.

Mean temperature17.9°C
Temperature anomaly-0.5°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days1681base 10°C
Hot days0≥ 32°C

What stood out in 2011

Frequent rain can mean more canopy growth and more disease pressure. Frost exposure can vary sharply from one site to the next.

Wetter than baseline · Moderate confidence

Growing-season precipitation was 90 mm above the 1991–2020 baseline.

Frequent rain can mean more canopy growth and more disease pressure.

Spring frost recorded · Low confidence

The regional record had 2 spring day(s) at or below 0°C.

Frost exposure can vary sharply from one site to the next.

How unusual was 2011?

The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.

Growing-season temperature

6th coolest of 35 vintages Cooler than 29 of 34 other vintages 17.9°C

Growing-season rainfall

11th wettest of 35 vintages Wetter than 24 of 34 other vintages 583.1 mm

Heat accumulation

6th lowest of 35 vintages Lower than 29 of 34 other vintages 1681 GDD

Hot days

Fewest of 35 vintages Fewer than 25 of 34 other vintages 0 days

2011 month by month

Compared with 1991–2020

Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.

Frost watch Growing season Harvest window
  1. 1–31
    Frost watch

    Heat accumulation

    2011 0 GDD
    Typical 17 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 144.5 mm
    Typical 101.0 mm
    2011 freezing days
    2
    Typical
    1.8

    Wetter than the typical month.

  2. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2011 58 GDD
    Typical 54 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 138.1 mm
    Typical 89.9 mm
    2011 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.2

    Wetter than the typical month.

  3. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2011 131 GDD
    Typical 172 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 101.3 mm
    Typical 60.7 mm
    2011 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.0

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

  4. 1–30
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2011 268 GDD
    Typical 295 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 72.9 mm
    Typical 53.6 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

  5. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2011 377 GDD
    Typical 391 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 3.2 mm
    Typical 27.1 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

  6. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2011 395 GDD
    Typical 406 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 2.5 mm
    Typical 46.0 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

  7. 1–30
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2011 319 GDD
    Typical 287 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 120.9 mm
    Typical 103.3 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  8. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2011 132 GDD
    Typical 186 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 144.2 mm
    Typical 112.5 mm

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

View milestone calendar data as a table
Month2011 GDDTypical GDD2011 rainfallTypical rainfall2011 freezing daysTypical freezing days
March 2011 0 GDD 17 GDD 144.5 mm 101.0 mm 21.8
April 2011 58 GDD 54 GDD 138.1 mm 89.9 mm 00.2
May 2011 131 GDD 172 GDD 101.3 mm 60.7 mm 00.0
June 2011 268 GDD 295 GDD 72.9 mm 53.6 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
July 2011 377 GDD 391 GDD 3.2 mm 27.1 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
August 2011 395 GDD 406 GDD 2.5 mm 46.0 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
September 2011 319 GDD 287 GDD 120.9 mm 103.3 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
October 2011 132 GDD 186 GDD 144.2 mm 112.5 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
Calendar data and method

Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.

Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.

Replay the 2011 growing season

214 daily regional observations

Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.

Replay data and method

Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Jul 15, 2026.

Closest weather matches

These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.

  1. Closest match

    2004

    Most alike in Growing-season mean temperature and Growing degree days.

    Growing-season mean temperature
    warmer: 0.1°C
    Growing degree days
    higher: 13 GDD

    Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — less rain

    View 2004 →

  2. Second closest

    2010

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Growing-season precipitation.

    Hot-day count
    the same: 0 days
    Growing-season precipitation
    less rain: 53.0 mm

    Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — more rain

    View 2010 →

  3. Third closest

    2016

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Harvest precipitation.

    Hot-day count
    more hot days: 1 day
    Harvest precipitation
    less rain: 21.8 mm

    Largest difference: Growing-season mean temperature — warmer

    View 2016 →
How similar years are calculated

Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.

Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Hot-day count (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%); Spring frost exposure (10%).

Calculated distances: 2004 0.374; 2010 0.504; 2016 0.597.

Growing-season temperature anomalyCompared with 1991-2020
Temperature anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 A line above zero indicates a warmer growing season than the 1991–2020 baseline. Select a point to inspect that vintage. +1.7°C −1.7°C 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
Growing-season rainfall anomaly
Rainfall anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 Bars show millimeters above or below the 1991–2020 growing-season baseline. Select a bar to inspect that vintage. +490 mm −490 mm 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
View historical chart data as a table
YearTemperature anomalyRainfall anomalyHot days
1991-1.3°C-88 mm0
1992-1.0°C+16 mm0
1993-0.0°C-184 mm3
1994+0.3°C-68 mm4
1995-1.0°C-83 mm0
1996-1.3°C+101 mm0
1997-0.9°C+108 mm0
1998+0.1°C-91 mm5
1999+1.0°C-238 mm8
2000+0.5°C-77 mm10
2001+0.5°C-203 mm2
2002-0.3°C-47 mm4
2003+0.9°C+264 mm6
2004-0.4°C+23 mm1
2005-0.3°C+175 mm3
2006+0.4°C+34 mm7
2007+0.4°C-9 mm16
2008+0.3°C-174 mm2
2009+0.1°C+169 mm2
2010-0.2°C+37 mm0
2011-0.5°C+90 mm0
2012+1.0°C-226 mm8
2013+0.1°C-76 mm0
2014-0.0°C-74 mm0
2015+0.2°C+205 mm2
2016+0.1°C+141 mm1
2017+0.8°C-203 mm16
2018+0.3°C+484 mm1
2019+0.1°C+59 mm3
2020+0.1°C-64 mm0
2021+0.6°C+263 mm15
2022+1.0°C-38 mm4
2023+0.5°C+150 mm10
2024+1.5°C-14 mm13
2025+0.5°C-50 mm6
2026+1.4°C-149 mm10

winter

7.2°C

+0.4°C vs baseline

335 mm rain · +33 mm

spring

11.4°C

-0.4°C vs baseline

383 mm rain · +132 mm

summer

21.3°C

-0.6°C vs baseline

78 mm rain · -48 mm

harvest

17.4°C

-0.3°C vs baseline

265 mm rain · +49 mm

Weather events

Periods that crossed one of the published regional thresholds, shown in date order.

  1. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -1.9°C
    Duration
    2 days
    Severe-freeze days
    0 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  2. Dry spell

    Duration
    38 days
    Total rain
    1.5 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  3. Dry spell

    Duration
    39 days
    Total rain
    3.4 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  4. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    92.5 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    84.4 mm
    Trigger threshold
    41.5 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

How events are detected

Weather & Vines combined regional series; method event-timeline-v2-2026-07, rules etna-catalog-v1-2026-07. Source last updated Jul 15, 2026, calculated Aug 29, 2026. Each configured point must have at least 95.0% coverage.

1991–present

Climate change

Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.

Compare regions

Observed record

Historical trends, 1991–2025

Growing degree days changed +75.6 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +39.8 to +111.3 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.

How it is measured: Across the April 1–October 31 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.

Growing degree days · annual change from the 1991–2020 average1991–2025

Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.

View annual growing degree days data
VintageGrowing degree daysChange from 1991–2020
19911529 GDD-263 GDD
19921594 GDD-197 GDD
19931784 GDD-7 GDD
19941851 GDD+59 GDD
19951601 GDD-191 GDD
19961513 GDD-279 GDD
19971643 GDD-149 GDD
19981797 GDD+5 GDD
19992010 GDD+218 GDD
20001888 GDD+97 GDD
20011906 GDD+114 GDD
20021723 GDD-69 GDD
20032005 GDD+213 GDD
20041695 GDD-97 GDD
20051740 GDD-52 GDD
20061873 GDD+81 GDD
20071879 GDD+88 GDD
20081844 GDD+53 GDD
20091793 GDD+1 GDD
20101742 GDD-50 GDD
20111681 GDD-111 GDD
20121998 GDD+207 GDD
20131795 GDD+3 GDD
20141782 GDD-10 GDD
20151838 GDD+46 GDD
20161812 GDD+20 GDD
20171961 GDD+169 GDD
20181856 GDD+64 GDD
20191818 GDD+26 GDD
20201803 GDD+11 GDD
20211933 GDD+142 GDD
20221999 GDD+207 GDD
20231902 GDD+110 GDD
20242103 GDD+311 GDD
20251895 GDD+103 GDD
Growing-season mean temperature
+0.37 °C per decade 95% interval +0.20 to +0.54
Growing degree days
+75.57 GDD per decade 95% interval +39.83 to +111.31
Growing-season precipitation
+42.98 mm per decade 95% interval +7.43 to +78.52
Hot days
+1.51 days per decade 95% interval +0.36 to +2.66
Spring frost days
-1.25 days per decade 95% interval -1.83 to -0.67
Longest dry spell
-1.07 days per decade 95% interval -3.21 to +1.06

Last Updated July 15, 2026

Model ensemble

Projected climate through 2075

Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.

Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.

PeriodWeighted medianWeighted central 80%Models per pathway
2021-2040+1.1°C+0.7 to +1.6°C25
2041-2060+1.8°C+1.1 to +2.5°C25
2061-2075+2.2°C+1.5 to +3.0°C25
How pathways are combined

For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Compare projection measures across regions

Typical year · 1991–2020

When to visit

This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.

Deterministic IFS forecast

Next ten days

Detailed forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · model run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC · retrieved Aug 30, 2026 at 08:22 UTC

Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.

DateSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTue
High 30°C 31°C 27°C 27°C 26°C 26°C 26°C 26°C 27°C 27°C
Low 22°C 19°C 16°C 17°C 17°C 16°C 16°C 17°C 18°C 18°C
Rain 0.9 mm 0.0 mm 0.1 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.2 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.1 mm 0.2 mm

Across the typical year: Early August has the warmest median afternoon high (27.4°C); Late January has the coolest (9.8°C). Wet days are most frequent in Late January (47%) and least frequent in Late July (11%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lowsMedians and middle 50% of daily readings

Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lows for Etna Median daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 24 early and late-month periods under the 1991–2020 baseline. Neutral bands show the 25th to 75th percentile. 0°C5°C10°C15°C20°C25°C30°C JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
How often a day is wetShare of days with at least 1 mm of rain

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Wet-day frequency through the typical year for Etna The fraction of days receiving at least one millimeter of rain in each early and late-month period under the 1991–2020 baseline. 0%25%50%75%100% JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
View all 24 periods as a table

Scroll horizontally to view all columns.

Etna typical weather by half-month, 1991–2020
PeriodAfternoon high, median (middle 50%)Overnight low, median (middle 50%)Wet-day frequencyPeriod rain, median (middle 50%)
Jan 1–1510.6°C (9.0–12.3°C)3.0°C (1.3–4.6°C)38%36.8 mm (19.9–53.0 mm)
Jan 16–319.8°C (8.0–11.4°C)2.6°C (1.0–4.2°C)47%56.2 mm (22.1–82.1 mm)
Feb 1–1510.2°C (7.6–12.3°C)2.5°C (0.4–4.2°C)46%44.1 mm (25.6–66.4 mm)
Feb 16–2910.7°C (8.7–13.0°C)2.7°C (0.7–4.8°C)43%28.9 mm (17.7–70.5 mm)
Mar 1–1511.9°C (9.7–14.1°C)4.0°C (2.1–5.8°C)47%46.5 mm (27.8–77.8 mm)
Mar 16–3113.5°C (11.3–15.5°C)5.2°C (3.2–6.9°C)43%38.3 mm (26.5–55.5 mm)
Apr 1–1514.5°C (12.8–16.4°C)6.3°C (4.9–7.8°C)44%37.9 mm (26.5–51.2 mm)
Apr 16–3016.1°C (14.5–17.9°C)8.3°C (6.5–9.7°C)44%41.2 mm (23.6–64.3 mm)
May 1–1518.5°C (16.6–20.9°C)10.2°C (8.5–12.0°C)29%26.5 mm (10.8–39.1 mm)
May 16–3120.4°C (18.5–22.5°C)12.0°C (10.4–14.0°C)31%28.1 mm (10.3–42.8 mm)
Jun 1–1522.9°C (21.0–24.6°C)14.2°C (12.7–16.0°C)25%19.3 mm (10.7–33.9 mm)
Jun 16–3025.5°C (23.1–27.2°C)16.5°C (14.8–18.3°C)18%11.6 mm (4.2–26.5 mm)
Jul 1–1526.7°C (25.1–28.4°C)18.1°C (16.7–19.4°C)12%4.9 mm (1.8–16.1 mm)
Jul 16–3127.3°C (25.7–28.9°C)18.1°C (17.1–19.5°C)11%6.7 mm (1.4–17.3 mm)
Aug 1–1527.4°C (26.1–29.2°C)18.8°C (17.7–19.9°C)17%6.0 mm (3.1–15.1 mm)
Aug 16–3126.9°C (25.5–28.8°C)18.4°C (17.3–19.7°C)21%16.1 mm (2.1–44.2 mm)
Sep 1–1524.3°C (22.9–26.0°C)16.5°C (15.1–17.8°C)38%33.4 mm (20.0–64.7 mm)
Sep 16–3022.3°C (20.5–24.2°C)14.8°C (13.3–16.2°C)45%46.7 mm (26.1–81.8 mm)
Oct 1–1520.7°C (19.3–22.4°C)13.2°C (11.7–14.7°C)42%48.6 mm (32.3–69.5 mm)
Oct 16–3119.0°C (17.0–20.7°C)11.6°C (9.6–13.0°C)42%50.0 mm (24.5–80.3 mm)
Nov 1–1516.6°C (14.9–18.2°C)9.2°C (7.5–10.6°C)41%34.4 mm (23.3–67.8 mm)
Nov 16–3013.9°C (12.1–15.7°C)6.8°C (4.6–8.4°C)43%43.8 mm (26.4–65.3 mm)
Dec 1–1512.0°C (10.6–13.6°C)5.0°C (3.5–6.4°C)40%35.4 mm (25.6–61.7 mm)
Dec 16–3110.6°C (8.8–12.4°C)3.6°C (1.7–5.5°C)44%39.9 mm (25.5–63.8 mm)

Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.

Historical climatology Last Updated July 15, 2026

Season to date

Growing season heat and rainfall

Apr 1–Aug 30, 2026

Growing degree days1421.1base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall343.8 mmweighted regional total
Cumulative growing degree daysBase 10°C

2026 season1991–2020 average

Growing degree days accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily mean temperature above 10 degrees Celsius from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 1421 GDD 0 Apr ’26MayJunJulAug
Cumulative growing-season rainfallRegional weighted mean

2026 season1991–2020 average

Rainfall accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily rainfall in millimeters from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 344 mm 0 Apr ’26MayJunJulAug
View growing-season accumulation data
DateSeason GDD1991–2020 average GDDSeason rainfall1991–2020 average rainfall
2026-04-010.00.98.5 mm2.8 mm
2026-04-020.01.517.4 mm6.3 mm
2026-04-030.02.224.6 mm8.6 mm
2026-04-040.03.228.4 mm14.8 mm
2026-04-050.64.328.8 mm18.0 mm
2026-04-062.45.328.8 mm20.3 mm
2026-04-076.56.328.8 mm22.0 mm
2026-04-0811.17.528.8 mm24.6 mm
2026-04-0914.98.828.8 mm27.3 mm
2026-04-1019.410.228.8 mm29.3 mm
2026-04-1125.012.128.8 mm32.3 mm
2026-04-1228.913.828.8 mm35.6 mm
2026-04-1332.115.429.4 mm38.8 mm
2026-04-1436.016.832.6 mm40.3 mm
2026-04-1538.418.343.2 mm42.2 mm
2026-04-1641.420.249.6 mm45.5 mm
2026-04-1745.622.050.8 mm49.8 mm
2026-04-1850.523.751.3 mm53.6 mm
2026-04-1954.125.451.4 mm55.0 mm
2026-04-2058.327.051.4 mm56.7 mm
2026-04-2164.028.952.8 mm60.8 mm
2026-04-2268.330.753.1 mm64.5 mm
2026-04-2368.332.962.1 mm66.5 mm
2026-04-2468.335.462.1 mm69.1 mm
2026-04-2570.038.062.1 mm72.2 mm
2026-04-2673.540.862.1 mm77.5 mm
2026-04-2778.243.962.1 mm81.3 mm
2026-04-2883.747.262.1 mm84.4 mm
2026-04-2989.250.462.3 mm87.3 mm
2026-04-3094.553.764.8 mm89.9 mm
2026-05-0194.557.376.6 mm92.0 mm
2026-05-0294.561.276.7 mm95.2 mm
2026-05-0395.965.276.7 mm99.1 mm
2026-05-0499.369.376.7 mm100.6 mm
2026-05-05104.573.577.9 mm102.4 mm
2026-05-06109.177.678.7 mm105.1 mm
2026-05-07112.281.379.1 mm106.8 mm
2026-05-08117.985.485.0 mm108.1 mm
2026-05-09123.090.085.5 mm109.0 mm
2026-05-10129.395.086.9 mm110.0 mm
2026-05-11136.3100.486.9 mm111.1 mm
2026-05-12145.8106.186.9 mm113.4 mm
2026-05-13151.7111.788.1 mm115.5 mm
2026-05-14155.8117.288.2 mm117.5 mm
2026-05-15160.0122.991.6 mm119.7 mm
2026-05-16164.0127.995.9 mm121.5 mm
2026-05-17165.6133.396.7 mm123.5 mm
2026-05-18167.8139.099.7 mm124.9 mm
2026-05-19170.4144.8102.8 mm126.3 mm
2026-05-20174.8150.6102.8 mm128.1 mm
2026-05-21179.6156.5102.9 mm128.9 mm
2026-05-22185.8162.8103.3 mm130.7 mm
2026-05-23193.3169.4103.3 mm132.1 mm
2026-05-24201.5176.0106.6 mm136.2 mm
2026-05-25209.1182.6116.6 mm138.3 mm
2026-05-26218.0189.4116.8 mm141.0 mm
2026-05-27227.8196.6119.2 mm142.7 mm
2026-05-28238.7204.0119.7 mm145.7 mm
2026-05-29248.1211.1136.9 mm148.1 mm
2026-05-30256.4218.3142.5 mm149.5 mm
2026-05-31265.1225.7142.8 mm150.5 mm
2026-06-01274.6232.9142.8 mm153.0 mm
2026-06-02284.4240.3143.0 mm154.8 mm
2026-06-03296.9248.0146.1 mm156.3 mm
2026-06-04306.6255.9146.1 mm157.8 mm
2026-06-05316.5263.8146.1 mm159.5 mm
2026-06-06327.6272.3146.4 mm159.8 mm
2026-06-07338.7281.1146.4 mm161.4 mm
2026-06-08348.8290.1146.4 mm163.6 mm
2026-06-09359.0299.0146.4 mm166.2 mm
2026-06-10370.1307.8146.4 mm169.0 mm
2026-06-11382.6317.1148.0 mm170.4 mm
2026-06-12391.9326.7148.0 mm171.9 mm
2026-06-13400.8336.4148.0 mm173.3 mm
2026-06-14410.7345.9148.0 mm175.1 mm
2026-06-15422.3355.8148.0 mm178.4 mm
2026-06-16432.9366.1161.9 mm180.1 mm
2026-06-17443.5376.7161.9 mm183.1 mm
2026-06-18455.0387.0161.9 mm186.2 mm
2026-06-19467.6397.2161.9 mm188.6 mm
2026-06-20479.9407.5161.9 mm190.5 mm
2026-06-21492.5417.9162.0 mm191.2 mm
2026-06-22506.0428.9162.2 mm191.6 mm
2026-06-23519.5440.2169.4 mm194.1 mm
2026-06-24532.6451.4173.0 mm198.8 mm
2026-06-25544.8462.9186.3 mm199.9 mm
2026-06-26557.3474.4188.3 mm200.1 mm
2026-06-27570.6485.8192.9 mm200.6 mm
2026-06-28584.3497.5194.3 mm201.7 mm
2026-06-29598.6509.4201.2 mm202.8 mm
2026-06-30612.3521.1221.1 mm204.2 mm
2026-07-01626.2532.9231.7 mm205.3 mm
2026-07-02639.5544.9233.6 mm205.9 mm
2026-07-03650.3557.6260.6 mm206.0 mm
2026-07-04662.8570.3261.9 mm206.3 mm
2026-07-05674.9582.9261.9 mm206.5 mm
2026-07-06686.6595.6261.9 mm206.6 mm
2026-07-07699.1608.7262.0 mm206.9 mm
2026-07-08711.0621.9262.1 mm207.3 mm
2026-07-09723.9634.3262.1 mm208.6 mm
2026-07-10736.8646.5263.0 mm210.1 mm
2026-07-11749.6658.5263.0 mm211.3 mm
2026-07-12764.7670.7263.0 mm212.3 mm
2026-07-13778.0682.9263.0 mm212.8 mm
2026-07-14792.7695.0263.0 mm214.6 mm
2026-07-15810.3707.1263.0 mm215.7 mm
2026-07-16828.6719.2263.0 mm216.8 mm
2026-07-17846.6731.3263.0 mm217.2 mm
2026-07-18867.3743.7263.0 mm219.0 mm
2026-07-19887.4756.1263.0 mm220.0 mm
2026-07-20907.6768.6263.0 mm220.1 mm
2026-07-21927.9781.1263.0 mm220.6 mm
2026-07-22947.2794.1263.0 mm220.9 mm
2026-07-23962.8807.3263.2 mm221.7 mm
2026-07-24976.9820.7263.6 mm223.7 mm
2026-07-25988.9833.8264.2 mm224.9 mm
2026-07-261004.5846.5264.3 mm226.4 mm
2026-07-271022.2859.4264.4 mm227.7 mm
2026-07-281036.6872.6264.4 mm228.7 mm
2026-07-291050.6886.0264.4 mm229.7 mm
2026-07-301065.9899.2264.4 mm230.3 mm
2026-07-311081.5912.2264.5 mm231.2 mm
2026-08-011097.3925.4264.8 mm232.0 mm
2026-08-021112.9938.7271.4 mm232.6 mm
2026-08-031127.2952.3275.4 mm234.7 mm
2026-08-041141.9965.9277.7 mm235.8 mm
2026-08-051158.8979.4279.8 mm237.1 mm
2026-08-061174.4992.7293.3 mm237.4 mm
2026-08-071190.01005.7294.6 mm238.6 mm
2026-08-081205.71019.0300.2 mm240.2 mm
2026-08-091221.01032.7303.2 mm243.0 mm
2026-08-101235.61046.3304.0 mm244.0 mm
2026-08-111251.11060.0304.0 mm244.9 mm
2026-08-121266.91073.1307.9 mm246.8 mm
2026-08-131281.81086.1319.4 mm247.7 mm
2026-08-141296.31099.2336.1 mm248.8 mm
2026-08-151309.21112.2339.8 mm250.0 mm
2026-08-161322.11125.1341.2 mm250.9 mm
2026-08-171335.51137.8341.2 mm251.2 mm
2026-08-181348.51150.7341.4 mm251.8 mm
2026-08-191361.31164.0342.3 mm254.0 mm
2026-08-201374.81177.5343.1 mm254.9 mm
2026-08-211389.51190.8343.1 mm255.9 mm
2026-08-221405.51203.9343.8 mm258.4 mm
2026-08-231421.11216.6343.8 mm261.5 mm

Forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC

10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record

GDD accumulation
119 GDDvs 111 GDD average
Total rainfall
1.5 mmvs 26.9 mm average

No unusually hot or wet period stands out in the short-range forecast.

Sun8/30 30°Cavg 26°C 22°Cavg 18°C +16 GDD 0.9 mm
Mon8/31 31°Cavg 26°C 19°Cavg 18°C +14 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/1 27°Cavg 26°C 16°Cavg 17°C +11 GDD 0.1 mm
Wed9/2 27°Cavg 25°C 17°Cavg 17°C +12 GDD 0.0 mm
Thu9/3 26°Cavg 25°C 17°Cavg 17°C +11 GDD 0.0 mm
Fri9/4 26°Cavg 25°C 16°Cavg 17°C +10 GDD 0.2 mm
Sat9/5 26°Cavg 25°C 16°Cavg 17°C +10 GDD 0.0 mm
Sun9/6 26°Cavg 24°C 17°Cavg 17°C +11 GDD 0.0 mm
Mon9/7 27°Cavg 24°C 18°Cavg 16°C +12 GDD 0.1 mm
Tue9/8 27°Cavg 24°C 18°Cavg 16°C +12 GDD 0.2 mm

Data and methods

Show data sources and model assumptions

Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.

Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.

This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.

Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed August 23, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.

The Etna model uses a April 1–October 31 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 32°C.