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Spain · Detailed regional profile

Rioja

A protected wine region along the Ebro, best known for Tempranillo-led reds.

Atlantic and Mediterranean weather meet across changing elevations, so heat, drought, and harvest rain differ considerably across Rioja.

Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Aug 20, 2026.

Bodegas Ysios surrounded by vineyards in Rioja Alavesa, Spain
Mike Art / Pexels

Current conditions

Observations through Aug 30, 2026 · 06:00 UTC

Temperature15.9°C
Dew Point13.6°C
Relative Humidity87%
24h Rainfall0.0 mmmodeled IFS total through Aug 29

Vintage explorer

Compare this vintage →

Moderately warmer and slightly wetter than normal.

Mean temperature17.9°C
Temperature anomaly+0.6°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days1704base 10°C
Hot days8≥ 35°C

What stood out in 2020

Frost exposure can vary sharply from one site to the next.

Spring frost recorded · Low confidence

The regional record had 1 spring day(s) at or below 0°C.

Frost exposure can vary sharply from one site to the next.

How unusual was 2020?

The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.

Growing-season temperature

9th warmest of 35 vintages Warmer than 26 of 34 other vintages 17.9°C

Growing-season rainfall

15th wettest of 35 vintages Wetter than 20 of 34 other vintages 354.4 mm

Heat accumulation

9th highest of 35 vintages Higher than 26 of 34 other vintages 1704 GDD

Hot days

6th most of 35 vintages More than 27 of 34 other vintages 8 days

2020 month by month

Compared with 1991–2020

Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.

Frost watch Growing season Harvest window
  1. 1–31
    Frost watch

    Heat accumulation

    2020 0 GDD
    Typical 29 GDD

    Rainfall

    2020 99.0 mm
    Typical 51.4 mm
    2020 freezing days
    1
    Typical
    2.1

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

  2. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2020 97 GDD
    Typical 63 GDD

    Rainfall

    2020 102.8 mm
    Typical 66.1 mm
    2020 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.5

    Heat accumulation ran ahead of the typical month.

  3. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2020 229 GDD
    Typical 160 GDD

    Rainfall

    2020 51.4 mm
    Typical 65.7 mm
    2020 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.0

    Heat accumulation ran ahead of the typical month.

  4. 1–30
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2020 252 GDD
    Typical 269 GDD

    Rainfall

    2020 71.6 mm
    Typical 52.6 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

  5. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2020 382 GDD
    Typical 356 GDD

    Rainfall

    2020 17.0 mm
    Typical 33.6 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

  6. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2020 383 GDD
    Typical 363 GDD

    Rainfall

    2020 27.6 mm
    Typical 30.8 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  7. 1–30
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2020 266 GDD
    Typical 248 GDD

    Rainfall

    2020 27.7 mm
    Typical 39.0 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  8. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2020 96 GDD
    Typical 137 GDD

    Rainfall

    2020 56.4 mm
    Typical 55.2 mm

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

View milestone calendar data as a table
Month2020 GDDTypical GDD2020 rainfallTypical rainfall2020 freezing daysTypical freezing days
March 2020 0 GDD 29 GDD 99.0 mm 51.4 mm 12.1
April 2020 97 GDD 63 GDD 102.8 mm 66.1 mm 00.5
May 2020 229 GDD 160 GDD 51.4 mm 65.7 mm 00.0
June 2020 252 GDD 269 GDD 71.6 mm 52.6 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
July 2020 382 GDD 356 GDD 17.0 mm 33.6 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
August 2020 383 GDD 363 GDD 27.6 mm 30.8 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
September 2020 266 GDD 248 GDD 27.7 mm 39.0 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
October 2020 96 GDD 137 GDD 56.4 mm 55.2 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
Calendar data and method

Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.

Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.

Replay the 2020 growing season

214 daily regional observations

Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.

Replay data and method

Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.

Closest weather matches

These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.

  1. Closest match

    2019

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Growing degree days.

    Hot-day count
    the same: 0 days
    Growing degree days
    lower: 2 GDD

    Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — more rain

    View 2019 →

  2. Second closest

    2015

    Most alike in Spring frost exposure and Harvest precipitation.

    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days
    Harvest precipitation
    less rain: 1.7 mm

    Largest difference: Growing-season precipitation — less rain

    View 2015 →

  3. Third closest

    2021

    Most alike in Growing-season precipitation and Growing degree days.

    Growing-season precipitation
    less rain: 7.8 mm
    Growing degree days
    lower: 95 GDD

    Largest difference: Growing-season mean temperature — cooler

    View 2021 →
How similar years are calculated

Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.

Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Hot-day count (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%); Spring frost exposure (10%).

Calculated distances: 2019 0.209; 2015 0.464; 2021 0.550.

Growing-season temperature anomalyCompared with 1991-2020
Temperature anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 A line above zero indicates a warmer growing season than the 1991–2020 baseline. Select a point to inspect that vintage. +3.6°C −3.6°C 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
Growing-season rainfall anomaly
Rainfall anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 Bars show millimeters above or below the 1991–2020 growing-season baseline. Select a bar to inspect that vintage. +170 mm −170 mm 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
View historical chart data as a table
YearTemperature anomalyRainfall anomalyHot days
1991-1.2°C+8 mm4
1992-1.2°C+158 mm0
1993-1.4°C+59 mm4
1994-0.3°C-20 mm4
1995+0.1°C-136 mm5
1996-0.8°C-18 mm1
1997+0.1°C+104 mm0
1998-0.5°C-34 mm6
1999+0.0°C+33 mm1
2000-0.2°C+21 mm0
2001-0.1°C-92 mm1
2002-0.8°C+53 mm0
2003+1.0°C+59 mm13
2004-0.1°C+7 mm0
2005+0.4°C-36 mm1
2006+1.1°C+6 mm1
2007-0.4°C-21 mm3
2008-0.7°C+144 mm1
2009+0.5°C-51 mm2
2010-0.5°C-36 mm3
2011+0.9°C-104 mm3
2012+0.4°C+34 mm8
2013-0.6°C+37 mm2
2014+0.9°C-72 mm1
2015+0.5°C-41 mm4
2016+0.3°C-114 mm3
2017+1.1°C-92 mm4
2018+0.4°C+104 mm1
2019+0.6°C+27 mm8
2020+0.6°C+11 mm8
2021+0.1°C+4 mm5
2022+2.2°C-106 mm19
2023+1.9°C+25 mm12
2024+0.6°C+139 mm11
2025+1.3°C-37 mm18
2026+3.4°C-165 mm28

winter

8.1°C

+1.8°C vs baseline

108 mm rain · -38 mm

spring

13.3°C

+1.3°C vs baseline

253 mm rain · +70 mm

summer

21.1°C

+0.3°C vs baseline

116 mm rain · -1 mm

harvest

15.8°C

-0.4°C vs baseline

84 mm rain · -10 mm

Weather events

Periods that crossed one of the published regional thresholds, shown in date order.

  1. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -0.1°C
    Duration
    1 day
    Severe-freeze days
    0 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  2. Dry spell

    Duration
    14 days
    Total rain
    1.3 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  3. Heat episode

    Peak temperature
    36.9°C
    Duration
    2 days
    Heat accumulation
    35 GDD

  4. Heat episode

    Peak temperature
    37.7°C
    Duration
    4 days
    Heat accumulation
    69 GDD

  5. Dry spell

    Duration
    20 days
    Total rain
    2.7 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day
How events are detected

Weather & Vines combined regional series; method event-timeline-v2-2026-07, rules rioja-v5-2026-08. Source last updated Aug 20, 2026, calculated Aug 29, 2026. Each configured point must have at least 95.0% coverage.

1991–present

Climate change

Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.

Compare regions

Observed record

Historical trends, 1991–2025

Growing degree days changed +113.7 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +83.5 to +143.9 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.

How it is measured: Across the April 1–October 31 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.

Growing degree days · annual change from the 1991–2020 average1991–2025

Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.

View annual growing degree days data
VintageGrowing degree daysChange from 1991–2020
19911427 GDD-168 GDD
19921353 GDD-242 GDD
19931303 GDD-292 GDD
19941560 GDD-35 GDD
19951613 GDD+18 GDD
19961419 GDD-176 GDD
19971593 GDD-2 GDD
19981494 GDD-101 GDD
19991593 GDD-2 GDD
20001544 GDD-51 GDD
20011586 GDD-9 GDD
20021423 GDD-172 GDD
20031805 GDD+209 GDD
20041583 GDD-13 GDD
20051680 GDD+85 GDD
20061803 GDD+208 GDD
20071495 GDD-100 GDD
20081455 GDD-140 GDD
20091702 GDD+107 GDD
20101503 GDD-92 GDD
20111758 GDD+163 GDD
20121691 GDD+96 GDD
20131478 GDD-118 GDD
20141759 GDD+164 GDD
20151673 GDD+78 GDD
20161651 GDD+56 GDD
20171824 GDD+229 GDD
20181681 GDD+86 GDD
20191702 GDD+107 GDD
20201704 GDD+109 GDD
20211609 GDD+14 GDD
20222079 GDD+484 GDD
20231968 GDD+372 GDD
20241702 GDD+107 GDD
20251846 GDD+251 GDD
Growing-season mean temperature
+0.59 °C per decade 95% interval +0.43 to +0.75
Growing degree days
+113.70 GDD per decade 95% interval +83.48 to +143.91
Growing-season precipitation
-8.42 mm per decade 95% interval -29.63 to +12.80
Hot days
+2.61 days per decade 95% interval +0.59 to +4.62
Spring frost days
-0.57 days per decade 95% interval -1.10 to -0.03
Longest dry spell
+1.03 days per decade 95% interval -0.53 to +2.58

Last Updated August 20, 2026

Model ensemble

Projected climate through 2075

Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.

Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.

PeriodWeighted medianWeighted central 80%Models per pathway
2021-2040+1.1°C+0.6 to +1.5°C25
2041-2060+1.6°C+1.1 to +2.5°C25
2061-2075+2.1°C+1.5 to +3.2°C25
How pathways are combined

For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Compare projection measures across regions

Typical year · 1991–2020

When to visit

This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.

Deterministic IFS forecast

Next ten days

Detailed forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · model run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC · retrieved Aug 30, 2026 at 08:22 UTC

Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.

DateSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTue
High 31°C 27°C 30°C 33°C 36°C 38°C 34°C 35°C 28°C 27°C
Low 16°C 15°C 15°C 17°C 16°C 19°C 20°C 22°C 16°C 19°C
Rain 0.6 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 1.1 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm

Across the typical year: Late July has the warmest median afternoon high (29.3°C); Late December has the coolest (9.7°C). Wet days are most frequent in Early May (46%) and least frequent in Late July (20%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lowsMedians and middle 50% of daily readings

Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lows for Rioja Median daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 24 early and late-month periods under the 1991–2020 baseline. Neutral bands show the 25th to 75th percentile. -5°C5°C15°C25°C35°C JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
How often a day is wetShare of days with at least 1 mm of rain

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Wet-day frequency through the typical year for Rioja The fraction of days receiving at least one millimeter of rain in each early and late-month period under the 1991–2020 baseline. 0%25%50%75%100% JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
View all 24 periods as a table

Scroll horizontally to view all columns.

Rioja typical weather by half-month, 1991–2020
PeriodAfternoon high, median (middle 50%)Overnight low, median (middle 50%)Wet-day frequencyPeriod rain, median (middle 50%)
Jan 1–159.8°C (7.4–11.8°C)2.2°C (-0.2–4.2°C)33%22.2 mm (6.3–33.3 mm)
Jan 16–319.7°C (7.2–11.6°C)2.2°C (-0.1–4.4°C)37%25.0 mm (11.3–41.2 mm)
Feb 1–1510.9°C (8.2–13.4°C)1.9°C (-0.1–4.2°C)38%22.6 mm (9.9–34.2 mm)
Feb 16–2911.8°C (8.5–14.6°C)2.3°C (0.2–4.5°C)35%21.8 mm (7.7–34.4 mm)
Mar 1–1513.8°C (11.1–16.8°C)3.9°C (1.9–5.9°C)36%22.7 mm (15.7–30.7 mm)
Mar 16–3115.5°C (12.2–18.2°C)4.6°C (2.7–6.6°C)35%20.1 mm (12.2–41.3 mm)
Apr 1–1515.5°C (12.7–18.8°C)5.6°C (3.7–7.4°C)44%29.2 mm (13.9–44.3 mm)
Apr 16–3017.6°C (14.3–20.3°C)6.9°C (4.9–9.0°C)45%34.6 mm (25.3–42.6 mm)
May 1–1519.2°C (15.6–22.7°C)8.7°C (6.5–10.7°C)46%34.3 mm (25.1–42.1 mm)
May 16–3121.9°C (18.4–25.1°C)10.5°C (8.5–12.5°C)38%28.5 mm (16.3–39.2 mm)
Jun 1–1523.3°C (20.1–27.2°C)12.1°C (10.3–14.3°C)36%26.0 mm (15.3–44.5 mm)
Jun 16–3027.0°C (22.8–29.9°C)14.0°C (11.8–15.8°C)27%17.0 mm (10.1–26.7 mm)
Jul 1–1527.0°C (23.6–30.2°C)14.5°C (12.8–16.3°C)25%16.0 mm (9.3–22.2 mm)
Jul 16–3129.3°C (26.0–32.1°C)15.7°C (14.0–17.1°C)20%9.8 mm (5.8–23.0 mm)
Aug 1–1528.7°C (25.4–31.6°C)15.4°C (13.7–17.2°C)22%13.3 mm (7.8–15.9 mm)
Aug 16–3128.1°C (24.8–31.7°C)15.3°C (13.0–16.8°C)20%10.3 mm (6.8–24.8 mm)
Sep 1–1525.6°C (22.4–28.3°C)13.4°C (11.5–14.9°C)26%14.3 mm (5.7–26.6 mm)
Sep 16–3023.3°C (19.7–26.2°C)11.7°C (9.7–13.7°C)31%20.2 mm (8.4–27.7 mm)
Oct 1–1520.5°C (17.2–23.7°C)10.2°C (8.0–12.1°C)31%21.9 mm (12.0–32.2 mm)
Oct 16–3118.4°C (15.4–21.0°C)8.4°C (6.1–10.8°C)37%29.7 mm (13.5–41.9 mm)
Nov 1–1514.4°C (12.0–16.7°C)6.2°C (4.3–8.4°C)43%35.2 mm (20.2–47.4 mm)
Nov 16–3011.8°C (9.6–14.3°C)4.0°C (1.9–6.6°C)39%24.6 mm (15.7–38.1 mm)
Dec 1–1510.5°C (8.4–12.5°C)3.5°C (1.1–5.4°C)36%17.1 mm (11.0–37.2 mm)
Dec 16–319.7°C (7.9–11.8°C)2.7°C (-0.2–4.9°C)34%21.8 mm (12.4–28.4 mm)

Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.

Historical climatology Last Updated August 20, 2026

Season to date

Growing season heat and rainfall

Apr 1–Aug 30, 2026

Growing degree days1559.1base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall178.8 mmweighted regional total
Cumulative growing degree daysBase 10°C

2026 season1991–2020 average

Growing degree days accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily mean temperature above 10 degrees Celsius from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 1559 GDD 0 Apr ’26MayJunJulAug
Cumulative growing-season rainfallRegional weighted mean

2026 season1991–2020 average

Rainfall accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily rainfall in millimeters from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 240 mm 0 Apr ’26MayJunJulAug
View growing-season accumulation data
DateSeason GDD1991–2020 average GDDSeason rainfall1991–2020 average rainfall
2026-04-010.61.52.5 mm2.1 mm
2026-04-020.63.04.1 mm3.9 mm
2026-04-031.84.24.2 mm6.1 mm
2026-04-046.25.24.2 mm7.8 mm
2026-04-0511.56.84.2 mm9.0 mm
2026-04-0617.68.84.2 mm10.8 mm
2026-04-0723.910.24.2 mm13.2 mm
2026-04-0830.411.84.3 mm14.6 mm
2026-04-0937.313.74.5 mm16.4 mm
2026-04-1044.915.34.5 mm19.8 mm
2026-04-1146.816.814.0 mm22.6 mm
2026-04-1246.818.120.5 mm24.7 mm
2026-04-1346.819.821.0 mm26.7 mm
2026-04-1447.521.521.1 mm28.5 mm
2026-04-1553.023.421.1 mm31.4 mm
2026-04-1659.325.321.1 mm34.3 mm
2026-04-1766.727.321.2 mm35.7 mm
2026-04-1873.429.222.2 mm38.7 mm
2026-04-1980.731.123.1 mm41.5 mm
2026-04-2089.633.523.6 mm43.5 mm
2026-04-2198.936.325.1 mm45.4 mm
2026-04-22107.238.925.1 mm47.9 mm
2026-04-23112.341.825.2 mm49.3 mm
2026-04-24119.545.128.1 mm51.4 mm
2026-04-25126.248.728.1 mm53.4 mm
2026-04-26133.751.828.8 mm56.4 mm
2026-04-27140.554.533.1 mm58.8 mm
2026-04-28147.657.134.3 mm61.5 mm
2026-04-29153.959.840.6 mm64.0 mm
2026-04-30160.462.641.5 mm66.1 mm
2026-05-01167.265.543.6 mm68.4 mm
2026-05-02171.568.756.8 mm70.7 mm
2026-05-03175.672.065.9 mm72.6 mm
2026-05-04177.875.780.7 mm74.3 mm
2026-05-05179.079.386.8 mm77.0 mm
2026-05-06179.883.187.2 mm79.2 mm
2026-05-07181.287.389.9 mm83.4 mm
2026-05-08183.291.793.8 mm85.7 mm
2026-05-09187.596.495.3 mm88.9 mm
2026-05-10190.8101.3100.8 mm92.0 mm
2026-05-11193.8106.0102.5 mm94.6 mm
2026-05-12195.8110.3111.2 mm96.8 mm
2026-05-13197.8115.0111.7 mm99.2 mm
2026-05-14199.4119.0113.7 mm100.9 mm
2026-05-15199.4123.6119.5 mm102.0 mm
2026-05-16199.4128.7119.9 mm104.2 mm
2026-05-17201.3133.9123.7 mm106.7 mm
2026-05-18205.8138.7124.0 mm109.2 mm
2026-05-19212.3143.2124.3 mm111.6 mm
2026-05-20220.6148.0124.3 mm112.7 mm
2026-05-21231.8153.6124.3 mm113.9 mm
2026-05-22244.3159.6124.3 mm115.5 mm
2026-05-23256.6165.8124.3 mm116.7 mm
2026-05-24269.2172.1124.6 mm118.9 mm
2026-05-25281.6178.6124.6 mm121.5 mm
2026-05-26294.2185.3124.6 mm123.1 mm
2026-05-27307.1192.3124.6 mm124.2 mm
2026-05-28320.6199.5124.6 mm125.3 mm
2026-05-29334.5207.1124.6 mm127.0 mm
2026-05-30346.5214.9126.0 mm129.0 mm
2026-05-31355.6222.3126.0 mm131.8 mm
2026-06-01365.4229.8126.0 mm135.1 mm
2026-06-02372.3237.3126.3 mm136.8 mm
2026-06-03382.0244.7126.3 mm138.7 mm
2026-06-04387.6251.8129.1 mm142.6 mm
2026-06-05394.7258.9129.2 mm145.3 mm
2026-06-06402.9266.5129.2 mm147.3 mm
2026-06-07414.3274.4129.2 mm149.5 mm
2026-06-08424.6282.6129.6 mm151.1 mm
2026-06-09430.4290.7130.2 mm154.1 mm
2026-06-10435.1297.9130.2 mm157.0 mm
2026-06-11441.9305.3130.2 mm158.8 mm
2026-06-12452.8313.5130.2 mm159.8 mm
2026-06-13465.7322.1130.2 mm160.8 mm
2026-06-14479.3331.0130.5 mm161.4 mm
2026-06-15493.4339.9130.7 mm162.1 mm
2026-06-16507.3348.6131.0 mm164.5 mm
2026-06-17523.8357.7131.0 mm165.9 mm
2026-06-18540.0367.0131.1 mm167.5 mm
2026-06-19556.4376.4132.8 mm169.9 mm
2026-06-20573.6386.5133.3 mm171.5 mm
2026-06-21592.8396.8133.4 mm172.7 mm
2026-06-22612.3407.3133.6 mm174.1 mm
2026-06-23631.4417.5133.6 mm175.5 mm
2026-06-24650.3427.5133.9 mm177.7 mm
2026-06-25668.2437.7136.1 mm178.9 mm
2026-06-26684.9448.6136.1 mm179.8 mm
2026-06-27702.5459.6136.3 mm180.8 mm
2026-06-28716.2470.4146.4 mm181.9 mm
2026-06-29728.7480.8147.6 mm182.8 mm
2026-06-30741.4491.6147.6 mm184.4 mm
2026-07-01751.6502.4148.2 mm185.6 mm
2026-07-02762.2512.6148.3 mm187.0 mm
2026-07-03774.2523.2148.4 mm188.7 mm
2026-07-04788.0533.8148.4 mm190.0 mm
2026-07-05803.2544.0148.4 mm190.9 mm
2026-07-06819.7554.0148.5 mm192.3 mm
2026-07-07837.4564.1149.3 mm193.2 mm
2026-07-08855.5574.4149.9 mm194.8 mm
2026-07-09873.5585.2151.9 mm196.2 mm
2026-07-10891.0595.7153.0 mm197.8 mm
2026-07-11906.7606.4153.0 mm198.4 mm
2026-07-12926.2617.4153.5 mm199.6 mm
2026-07-13943.0628.5153.6 mm200.5 mm
2026-07-14960.9639.6153.6 mm201.3 mm
2026-07-15978.8651.2153.7 mm202.0 mm
2026-07-16994.6663.2154.9 mm203.2 mm
2026-07-171008.3675.3154.9 mm204.0 mm
2026-07-181022.1687.9155.0 mm205.1 mm
2026-07-191037.6700.7155.4 mm206.2 mm
2026-07-201053.4713.1155.6 mm206.9 mm
2026-07-211068.1725.0155.6 mm207.8 mm
2026-07-221084.3737.0155.6 mm208.6 mm
2026-07-231100.9749.2155.6 mm209.2 mm
2026-07-241117.1761.3155.7 mm209.7 mm
2026-07-251128.0773.6158.5 mm210.8 mm
2026-07-261138.4786.3158.6 mm212.8 mm
2026-07-271150.8798.3158.6 mm214.7 mm
2026-07-281166.7810.4158.6 mm215.6 mm
2026-07-291186.0823.0158.8 mm216.3 mm
2026-07-301204.0835.1159.1 mm216.9 mm
2026-07-311217.3847.4159.2 mm218.0 mm
2026-08-011231.1859.9159.2 mm219.3 mm
2026-08-021246.6871.8159.2 mm220.3 mm
2026-08-031260.6884.1160.7 mm220.9 mm
2026-08-041275.1896.8160.7 mm221.8 mm
2026-08-051288.5909.3160.8 mm223.1 mm
2026-08-061302.5921.7160.8 mm224.0 mm
2026-08-071317.3934.2160.9 mm225.4 mm
2026-08-081333.1945.8163.1 mm226.2 mm
2026-08-091349.5956.9164.1 mm227.3 mm
2026-08-101363.9968.2164.3 mm228.4 mm
2026-08-111380.1979.9164.6 mm229.3 mm
2026-08-121398.3991.5164.6 mm229.9 mm
2026-08-131417.61002.7164.9 mm230.4 mm
2026-08-141435.21014.6166.4 mm231.1 mm
2026-08-151449.31026.8170.1 mm232.1 mm
2026-08-161464.41038.5171.5 mm233.2 mm
2026-08-171479.61050.7171.6 mm234.5 mm
2026-08-181495.31063.1171.6 mm235.2 mm
2026-08-191510.71075.1172.1 mm235.9 mm
2026-08-201522.51086.8177.2 mm237.1 mm
2026-08-211532.51098.8177.7 mm238.2 mm
2026-08-221543.61110.8178.2 mm239.0 mm
2026-08-231559.11122.8178.8 mm239.8 mm

Forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC

10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record

GDD accumulation
141 GDDvs 98 GDD average
Total rainfall
1.8 mmvs 13.1 mm average

The forecast includes a period of potentially stressful heat. The region's 35°C heat threshold is reached Sep 3–4.

Sun8/30 31°Cavg 26°C 16°Cavg 14°C +12 GDD 0.6 mm
Mon8/31 27°Cavg 26°C 15°Cavg 14°C +11 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/1 30°Cavg 26°C 15°Cavg 14°C +11 GDD 0.0 mm
Wed9/2 33°Cavg 27°C 17°Cavg 13°C +14 GDD 0.0 mm
Thu9/3 36°Cavg 27°C 16°Cavg 13°C +15 GDD 0.0 mm
Fri9/4 38°Cavg 26°C 19°Cavg 14°C +18 GDD 0.0 mm
Sat9/5 34°Cavg 26°C 20°Cavg 14°C +18 GDD 0.0 mm
Sun9/6 35°Cavg 26°C 22°Cavg 13°C +18 GDD 1.1 mm
Mon9/7 28°Cavg 25°C 16°Cavg 14°C +12 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/8 27°Cavg 25°C 19°Cavg 13°C +12 GDD 0.0 mm

Data and methods

Show data sources and model assumptions

Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.

Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.

This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.

Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed August 23, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.

The Rioja model uses a April 1–October 31 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 35°C.

The historical series uses 3 ERA5 locations, 1 temperature station, and 1 rain station. Interpretation confidence: high. Geometry confidence: authoritative. Rules: rioja-v5-2026-08.