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Spain · Detailed regional profile

Rioja

A protected wine region along the Ebro, best known for Tempranillo-led reds.

Atlantic and Mediterranean weather meet across changing elevations, so heat, drought, and harvest rain differ considerably across Rioja.

Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Aug 20, 2026.

Bodegas Ysios surrounded by vineyards in Rioja Alavesa, Spain
Mike Art / Pexels

Current conditions

Observations through Aug 30, 2026 · 06:00 UTC

Temperature15.9°C
Dew Point13.6°C
Relative Humidity87%
24h Rainfall0.0 mmmodeled IFS total through Aug 29

Vintage explorer

Compare this vintage →

Moderately cooler and slightly wetter than normal.

Mean temperature16.1°C
Temperature anomaly-1.2°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days1426base 10°C
Hot days4≥ 35°C

What stood out in 1991

Cool weather can slow ripening and help grapes retain acidity. Frost exposure can vary sharply from one site to the next.

Cooler growing season · High confidence

Mean growing-season temperature was -1.2°C versus the 1991–2020 baseline.

Cool weather can slow ripening and help grapes retain acidity.

Spring frost recorded · Low confidence

The regional record had 4 spring day(s) at or below 0°C.

Frost exposure can vary sharply from one site to the next.

How unusual was 1991?

The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.

Growing-season temperature

3rd coolest of 35 vintages Cooler than 32 of 34 other vintages 16.1°C

Growing-season rainfall

16th wettest of 35 vintages Wetter than 19 of 34 other vintages 350.9 mm

Heat accumulation

5th lowest of 35 vintages Lower than 30 of 34 other vintages 1427 GDD

Hot days

12th most of 35 vintages More than 19 of 34 other vintages 4 days

1991 month by month

Compared with 1991–2020

Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.

Frost watch Growing season Harvest window
  1. 1–31
    Frost watch

    Heat accumulation

    1991 0 GDD
    Typical 29 GDD

    Rainfall

    1991 63.3 mm
    Typical 51.4 mm
    1991 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    2.1

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

  2. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    1991 16 GDD
    Typical 63 GDD

    Rainfall

    1991 116.3 mm
    Typical 66.1 mm
    1991 freezing days
    4
    Typical
    0.5

    More freezing days than the typical month.

  3. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    1991 90 GDD
    Typical 160 GDD

    Rainfall

    1991 61.0 mm
    Typical 65.7 mm
    1991 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.0

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

  4. 1–30
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    1991 224 GDD
    Typical 269 GDD

    Rainfall

    1991 14.7 mm
    Typical 52.6 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

  5. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    1991 346 GDD
    Typical 356 GDD

    Rainfall

    1991 24.4 mm
    Typical 33.6 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  6. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    1991 416 GDD
    Typical 363 GDD

    Rainfall

    1991 7.4 mm
    Typical 30.8 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

  7. 1–30
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    1991 284 GDD
    Typical 248 GDD

    Rainfall

    1991 61.3 mm
    Typical 39.0 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

  8. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    1991 50 GDD
    Typical 137 GDD

    Rainfall

    1991 65.7 mm
    Typical 55.2 mm

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

View milestone calendar data as a table
Month1991 GDDTypical GDD1991 rainfallTypical rainfall1991 freezing daysTypical freezing days
March 1991 0 GDD 29 GDD 63.3 mm 51.4 mm 02.1
April 1991 16 GDD 63 GDD 116.3 mm 66.1 mm 40.5
May 1991 90 GDD 160 GDD 61.0 mm 65.7 mm 00.0
June 1991 224 GDD 269 GDD 14.7 mm 52.6 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
July 1991 346 GDD 356 GDD 24.4 mm 33.6 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
August 1991 416 GDD 363 GDD 7.4 mm 30.8 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
September 1991 284 GDD 248 GDD 61.3 mm 39.0 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
October 1991 50 GDD 137 GDD 65.7 mm 55.2 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
Calendar data and method

Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.

Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.

Replay the 1991 growing season

214 daily regional observations

Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.

Replay data and method

Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.

Closest weather matches

These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.

  1. Closest match

    1993

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Harvest precipitation.

    Hot-day count
    the same: 0 days
    Harvest precipitation
    less rain: 9.7 mm

    Largest difference: Growing-season precipitation — more rain

    View 1993 →

  2. Second closest

    1998

    Most alike in Growing degree days and Hot-day count.

    Growing degree days
    higher: 67 GDD
    Hot-day count
    more hot days: 2 days

    Largest difference: Growing-season mean temperature — warmer

    View 1998 →

  3. Third closest

    1994

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Harvest precipitation.

    Hot-day count
    the same: 0 days
    Harvest precipitation
    less rain: 3.2 mm

    Largest difference: Growing-season mean temperature — warmer

    View 1994 →
How similar years are calculated

Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.

Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Hot-day count (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%); Spring frost exposure (10%).

Calculated distances: 1993 0.520; 1998 0.642; 1994 0.683.

Growing-season temperature anomalyCompared with 1991-2020
Temperature anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 A line above zero indicates a warmer growing season than the 1991–2020 baseline. Select a point to inspect that vintage. +3.6°C −3.6°C 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
Growing-season rainfall anomaly
Rainfall anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 Bars show millimeters above or below the 1991–2020 growing-season baseline. Select a bar to inspect that vintage. +170 mm −170 mm 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
View historical chart data as a table
YearTemperature anomalyRainfall anomalyHot days
1991-1.2°C+8 mm4
1992-1.2°C+158 mm0
1993-1.4°C+59 mm4
1994-0.3°C-20 mm4
1995+0.1°C-136 mm5
1996-0.8°C-18 mm1
1997+0.1°C+104 mm0
1998-0.5°C-34 mm6
1999+0.0°C+33 mm1
2000-0.2°C+21 mm0
2001-0.1°C-92 mm1
2002-0.8°C+53 mm0
2003+1.0°C+59 mm13
2004-0.1°C+7 mm0
2005+0.4°C-36 mm1
2006+1.1°C+6 mm1
2007-0.4°C-21 mm3
2008-0.7°C+144 mm1
2009+0.5°C-51 mm2
2010-0.5°C-36 mm3
2011+0.9°C-104 mm3
2012+0.4°C+34 mm8
2013-0.6°C+37 mm2
2014+0.9°C-72 mm1
2015+0.5°C-41 mm4
2016+0.3°C-114 mm3
2017+1.1°C-92 mm4
2018+0.4°C+104 mm1
2019+0.6°C+27 mm8
2020+0.6°C+11 mm8
2021+0.1°C+4 mm5
2022+2.2°C-106 mm19
2023+1.9°C+25 mm12
2024+0.6°C+139 mm11
2025+1.3°C-37 mm18
2026+3.4°C-165 mm28

winter

4.0°C

-2.2°C vs baseline

139 mm rain · -7 mm

spring

10.1°C

-1.9°C vs baseline

240 mm rain · +57 mm

summer

20.7°C

-0.0°C vs baseline

46 mm rain · -70 mm

harvest

15.1°C

-1.1°C vs baseline

127 mm rain · +33 mm

Weather events

Periods that crossed one of the published regional thresholds, shown in date order.

  1. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -0.2°C
    Duration
    1 day
    Severe-freeze days
    0 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  2. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -1.5°C
    Duration
    2 days
    Severe-freeze days
    0 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  3. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -0.1°C
    Duration
    1 day
    Severe-freeze days
    0 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  4. Dry spell

    Duration
    16 days
    Total rain
    2.8 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  5. Dry spell

    Duration
    14 days
    Total rain
    2.5 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  6. Dry spell

    Duration
    15 days
    Total rain
    1.5 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  7. Dry spell

    Duration
    25 days
    Total rain
    5.8 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  8. Heat episode

    Peak temperature
    35.9°C
    Duration
    3 days
    Heat accumulation
    51 GDD

  9. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    30.2 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    29.5 mm
    Trigger threshold
    20.0 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

How events are detected

Weather & Vines combined regional series; method event-timeline-v2-2026-07, rules rioja-v5-2026-08. Source last updated Aug 20, 2026, calculated Aug 29, 2026. Each configured point must have at least 95.0% coverage.

1991–present

Climate change

Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.

Compare regions

Observed record

Historical trends, 1991–2025

Growing degree days changed +113.7 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +83.5 to +143.9 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.

How it is measured: Across the April 1–October 31 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.

Growing degree days · annual change from the 1991–2020 average1991–2025

Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.

View annual growing degree days data
VintageGrowing degree daysChange from 1991–2020
19911427 GDD-168 GDD
19921353 GDD-242 GDD
19931303 GDD-292 GDD
19941560 GDD-35 GDD
19951613 GDD+18 GDD
19961419 GDD-176 GDD
19971593 GDD-2 GDD
19981494 GDD-101 GDD
19991593 GDD-2 GDD
20001544 GDD-51 GDD
20011586 GDD-9 GDD
20021423 GDD-172 GDD
20031805 GDD+209 GDD
20041583 GDD-13 GDD
20051680 GDD+85 GDD
20061803 GDD+208 GDD
20071495 GDD-100 GDD
20081455 GDD-140 GDD
20091702 GDD+107 GDD
20101503 GDD-92 GDD
20111758 GDD+163 GDD
20121691 GDD+96 GDD
20131478 GDD-118 GDD
20141759 GDD+164 GDD
20151673 GDD+78 GDD
20161651 GDD+56 GDD
20171824 GDD+229 GDD
20181681 GDD+86 GDD
20191702 GDD+107 GDD
20201704 GDD+109 GDD
20211609 GDD+14 GDD
20222079 GDD+484 GDD
20231968 GDD+372 GDD
20241702 GDD+107 GDD
20251846 GDD+251 GDD
Growing-season mean temperature
+0.59 °C per decade 95% interval +0.43 to +0.75
Growing degree days
+113.70 GDD per decade 95% interval +83.48 to +143.91
Growing-season precipitation
-8.42 mm per decade 95% interval -29.63 to +12.80
Hot days
+2.61 days per decade 95% interval +0.59 to +4.62
Spring frost days
-0.57 days per decade 95% interval -1.10 to -0.03
Longest dry spell
+1.03 days per decade 95% interval -0.53 to +2.58

Last Updated August 20, 2026

Model ensemble

Projected climate through 2075

Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.

Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.

PeriodWeighted medianWeighted central 80%Models per pathway
2021-2040+1.1°C+0.6 to +1.5°C25
2041-2060+1.6°C+1.1 to +2.5°C25
2061-2075+2.1°C+1.5 to +3.2°C25
How pathways are combined

For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Compare projection measures across regions

Typical year · 1991–2020

When to visit

This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.

Deterministic IFS forecast

Next ten days

Detailed forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · model run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC · retrieved Aug 30, 2026 at 08:22 UTC

Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.

DateSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTue
High 31°C 27°C 30°C 33°C 36°C 38°C 34°C 35°C 28°C 27°C
Low 16°C 15°C 15°C 17°C 16°C 19°C 20°C 22°C 16°C 19°C
Rain 0.6 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 1.1 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm

Across the typical year: Late July has the warmest median afternoon high (29.3°C); Late December has the coolest (9.7°C). Wet days are most frequent in Early May (46%) and least frequent in Late July (20%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lowsMedians and middle 50% of daily readings

Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lows for Rioja Median daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 24 early and late-month periods under the 1991–2020 baseline. Neutral bands show the 25th to 75th percentile. -5°C5°C15°C25°C35°C JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
How often a day is wetShare of days with at least 1 mm of rain

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Wet-day frequency through the typical year for Rioja The fraction of days receiving at least one millimeter of rain in each early and late-month period under the 1991–2020 baseline. 0%25%50%75%100% JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
View all 24 periods as a table

Scroll horizontally to view all columns.

Rioja typical weather by half-month, 1991–2020
PeriodAfternoon high, median (middle 50%)Overnight low, median (middle 50%)Wet-day frequencyPeriod rain, median (middle 50%)
Jan 1–159.8°C (7.4–11.8°C)2.2°C (-0.2–4.2°C)33%22.2 mm (6.3–33.3 mm)
Jan 16–319.7°C (7.2–11.6°C)2.2°C (-0.1–4.4°C)37%25.0 mm (11.3–41.2 mm)
Feb 1–1510.9°C (8.2–13.4°C)1.9°C (-0.1–4.2°C)38%22.6 mm (9.9–34.2 mm)
Feb 16–2911.8°C (8.5–14.6°C)2.3°C (0.2–4.5°C)35%21.8 mm (7.7–34.4 mm)
Mar 1–1513.8°C (11.1–16.8°C)3.9°C (1.9–5.9°C)36%22.7 mm (15.7–30.7 mm)
Mar 16–3115.5°C (12.2–18.2°C)4.6°C (2.7–6.6°C)35%20.1 mm (12.2–41.3 mm)
Apr 1–1515.5°C (12.7–18.8°C)5.6°C (3.7–7.4°C)44%29.2 mm (13.9–44.3 mm)
Apr 16–3017.6°C (14.3–20.3°C)6.9°C (4.9–9.0°C)45%34.6 mm (25.3–42.6 mm)
May 1–1519.2°C (15.6–22.7°C)8.7°C (6.5–10.7°C)46%34.3 mm (25.1–42.1 mm)
May 16–3121.9°C (18.4–25.1°C)10.5°C (8.5–12.5°C)38%28.5 mm (16.3–39.2 mm)
Jun 1–1523.3°C (20.1–27.2°C)12.1°C (10.3–14.3°C)36%26.0 mm (15.3–44.5 mm)
Jun 16–3027.0°C (22.8–29.9°C)14.0°C (11.8–15.8°C)27%17.0 mm (10.1–26.7 mm)
Jul 1–1527.0°C (23.6–30.2°C)14.5°C (12.8–16.3°C)25%16.0 mm (9.3–22.2 mm)
Jul 16–3129.3°C (26.0–32.1°C)15.7°C (14.0–17.1°C)20%9.8 mm (5.8–23.0 mm)
Aug 1–1528.7°C (25.4–31.6°C)15.4°C (13.7–17.2°C)22%13.3 mm (7.8–15.9 mm)
Aug 16–3128.1°C (24.8–31.7°C)15.3°C (13.0–16.8°C)20%10.3 mm (6.8–24.8 mm)
Sep 1–1525.6°C (22.4–28.3°C)13.4°C (11.5–14.9°C)26%14.3 mm (5.7–26.6 mm)
Sep 16–3023.3°C (19.7–26.2°C)11.7°C (9.7–13.7°C)31%20.2 mm (8.4–27.7 mm)
Oct 1–1520.5°C (17.2–23.7°C)10.2°C (8.0–12.1°C)31%21.9 mm (12.0–32.2 mm)
Oct 16–3118.4°C (15.4–21.0°C)8.4°C (6.1–10.8°C)37%29.7 mm (13.5–41.9 mm)
Nov 1–1514.4°C (12.0–16.7°C)6.2°C (4.3–8.4°C)43%35.2 mm (20.2–47.4 mm)
Nov 16–3011.8°C (9.6–14.3°C)4.0°C (1.9–6.6°C)39%24.6 mm (15.7–38.1 mm)
Dec 1–1510.5°C (8.4–12.5°C)3.5°C (1.1–5.4°C)36%17.1 mm (11.0–37.2 mm)
Dec 16–319.7°C (7.9–11.8°C)2.7°C (-0.2–4.9°C)34%21.8 mm (12.4–28.4 mm)

Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.

Historical climatology Last Updated August 20, 2026

Season to date

Growing season heat and rainfall

Apr 1–Aug 30, 2026

Growing degree days1559.1base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall178.8 mmweighted regional total
Cumulative growing degree daysBase 10°C

2026 season1991–2020 average

Growing degree days accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily mean temperature above 10 degrees Celsius from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 1559 GDD 0 Apr ’26MayJunJulAug
Cumulative growing-season rainfallRegional weighted mean

2026 season1991–2020 average

Rainfall accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily rainfall in millimeters from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 240 mm 0 Apr ’26MayJunJulAug
View growing-season accumulation data
DateSeason GDD1991–2020 average GDDSeason rainfall1991–2020 average rainfall
2026-04-010.61.52.5 mm2.1 mm
2026-04-020.63.04.1 mm3.9 mm
2026-04-031.84.24.2 mm6.1 mm
2026-04-046.25.24.2 mm7.8 mm
2026-04-0511.56.84.2 mm9.0 mm
2026-04-0617.68.84.2 mm10.8 mm
2026-04-0723.910.24.2 mm13.2 mm
2026-04-0830.411.84.3 mm14.6 mm
2026-04-0937.313.74.5 mm16.4 mm
2026-04-1044.915.34.5 mm19.8 mm
2026-04-1146.816.814.0 mm22.6 mm
2026-04-1246.818.120.5 mm24.7 mm
2026-04-1346.819.821.0 mm26.7 mm
2026-04-1447.521.521.1 mm28.5 mm
2026-04-1553.023.421.1 mm31.4 mm
2026-04-1659.325.321.1 mm34.3 mm
2026-04-1766.727.321.2 mm35.7 mm
2026-04-1873.429.222.2 mm38.7 mm
2026-04-1980.731.123.1 mm41.5 mm
2026-04-2089.633.523.6 mm43.5 mm
2026-04-2198.936.325.1 mm45.4 mm
2026-04-22107.238.925.1 mm47.9 mm
2026-04-23112.341.825.2 mm49.3 mm
2026-04-24119.545.128.1 mm51.4 mm
2026-04-25126.248.728.1 mm53.4 mm
2026-04-26133.751.828.8 mm56.4 mm
2026-04-27140.554.533.1 mm58.8 mm
2026-04-28147.657.134.3 mm61.5 mm
2026-04-29153.959.840.6 mm64.0 mm
2026-04-30160.462.641.5 mm66.1 mm
2026-05-01167.265.543.6 mm68.4 mm
2026-05-02171.568.756.8 mm70.7 mm
2026-05-03175.672.065.9 mm72.6 mm
2026-05-04177.875.780.7 mm74.3 mm
2026-05-05179.079.386.8 mm77.0 mm
2026-05-06179.883.187.2 mm79.2 mm
2026-05-07181.287.389.9 mm83.4 mm
2026-05-08183.291.793.8 mm85.7 mm
2026-05-09187.596.495.3 mm88.9 mm
2026-05-10190.8101.3100.8 mm92.0 mm
2026-05-11193.8106.0102.5 mm94.6 mm
2026-05-12195.8110.3111.2 mm96.8 mm
2026-05-13197.8115.0111.7 mm99.2 mm
2026-05-14199.4119.0113.7 mm100.9 mm
2026-05-15199.4123.6119.5 mm102.0 mm
2026-05-16199.4128.7119.9 mm104.2 mm
2026-05-17201.3133.9123.7 mm106.7 mm
2026-05-18205.8138.7124.0 mm109.2 mm
2026-05-19212.3143.2124.3 mm111.6 mm
2026-05-20220.6148.0124.3 mm112.7 mm
2026-05-21231.8153.6124.3 mm113.9 mm
2026-05-22244.3159.6124.3 mm115.5 mm
2026-05-23256.6165.8124.3 mm116.7 mm
2026-05-24269.2172.1124.6 mm118.9 mm
2026-05-25281.6178.6124.6 mm121.5 mm
2026-05-26294.2185.3124.6 mm123.1 mm
2026-05-27307.1192.3124.6 mm124.2 mm
2026-05-28320.6199.5124.6 mm125.3 mm
2026-05-29334.5207.1124.6 mm127.0 mm
2026-05-30346.5214.9126.0 mm129.0 mm
2026-05-31355.6222.3126.0 mm131.8 mm
2026-06-01365.4229.8126.0 mm135.1 mm
2026-06-02372.3237.3126.3 mm136.8 mm
2026-06-03382.0244.7126.3 mm138.7 mm
2026-06-04387.6251.8129.1 mm142.6 mm
2026-06-05394.7258.9129.2 mm145.3 mm
2026-06-06402.9266.5129.2 mm147.3 mm
2026-06-07414.3274.4129.2 mm149.5 mm
2026-06-08424.6282.6129.6 mm151.1 mm
2026-06-09430.4290.7130.2 mm154.1 mm
2026-06-10435.1297.9130.2 mm157.0 mm
2026-06-11441.9305.3130.2 mm158.8 mm
2026-06-12452.8313.5130.2 mm159.8 mm
2026-06-13465.7322.1130.2 mm160.8 mm
2026-06-14479.3331.0130.5 mm161.4 mm
2026-06-15493.4339.9130.7 mm162.1 mm
2026-06-16507.3348.6131.0 mm164.5 mm
2026-06-17523.8357.7131.0 mm165.9 mm
2026-06-18540.0367.0131.1 mm167.5 mm
2026-06-19556.4376.4132.8 mm169.9 mm
2026-06-20573.6386.5133.3 mm171.5 mm
2026-06-21592.8396.8133.4 mm172.7 mm
2026-06-22612.3407.3133.6 mm174.1 mm
2026-06-23631.4417.5133.6 mm175.5 mm
2026-06-24650.3427.5133.9 mm177.7 mm
2026-06-25668.2437.7136.1 mm178.9 mm
2026-06-26684.9448.6136.1 mm179.8 mm
2026-06-27702.5459.6136.3 mm180.8 mm
2026-06-28716.2470.4146.4 mm181.9 mm
2026-06-29728.7480.8147.6 mm182.8 mm
2026-06-30741.4491.6147.6 mm184.4 mm
2026-07-01751.6502.4148.2 mm185.6 mm
2026-07-02762.2512.6148.3 mm187.0 mm
2026-07-03774.2523.2148.4 mm188.7 mm
2026-07-04788.0533.8148.4 mm190.0 mm
2026-07-05803.2544.0148.4 mm190.9 mm
2026-07-06819.7554.0148.5 mm192.3 mm
2026-07-07837.4564.1149.3 mm193.2 mm
2026-07-08855.5574.4149.9 mm194.8 mm
2026-07-09873.5585.2151.9 mm196.2 mm
2026-07-10891.0595.7153.0 mm197.8 mm
2026-07-11906.7606.4153.0 mm198.4 mm
2026-07-12926.2617.4153.5 mm199.6 mm
2026-07-13943.0628.5153.6 mm200.5 mm
2026-07-14960.9639.6153.6 mm201.3 mm
2026-07-15978.8651.2153.7 mm202.0 mm
2026-07-16994.6663.2154.9 mm203.2 mm
2026-07-171008.3675.3154.9 mm204.0 mm
2026-07-181022.1687.9155.0 mm205.1 mm
2026-07-191037.6700.7155.4 mm206.2 mm
2026-07-201053.4713.1155.6 mm206.9 mm
2026-07-211068.1725.0155.6 mm207.8 mm
2026-07-221084.3737.0155.6 mm208.6 mm
2026-07-231100.9749.2155.6 mm209.2 mm
2026-07-241117.1761.3155.7 mm209.7 mm
2026-07-251128.0773.6158.5 mm210.8 mm
2026-07-261138.4786.3158.6 mm212.8 mm
2026-07-271150.8798.3158.6 mm214.7 mm
2026-07-281166.7810.4158.6 mm215.6 mm
2026-07-291186.0823.0158.8 mm216.3 mm
2026-07-301204.0835.1159.1 mm216.9 mm
2026-07-311217.3847.4159.2 mm218.0 mm
2026-08-011231.1859.9159.2 mm219.3 mm
2026-08-021246.6871.8159.2 mm220.3 mm
2026-08-031260.6884.1160.7 mm220.9 mm
2026-08-041275.1896.8160.7 mm221.8 mm
2026-08-051288.5909.3160.8 mm223.1 mm
2026-08-061302.5921.7160.8 mm224.0 mm
2026-08-071317.3934.2160.9 mm225.4 mm
2026-08-081333.1945.8163.1 mm226.2 mm
2026-08-091349.5956.9164.1 mm227.3 mm
2026-08-101363.9968.2164.3 mm228.4 mm
2026-08-111380.1979.9164.6 mm229.3 mm
2026-08-121398.3991.5164.6 mm229.9 mm
2026-08-131417.61002.7164.9 mm230.4 mm
2026-08-141435.21014.6166.4 mm231.1 mm
2026-08-151449.31026.8170.1 mm232.1 mm
2026-08-161464.41038.5171.5 mm233.2 mm
2026-08-171479.61050.7171.6 mm234.5 mm
2026-08-181495.31063.1171.6 mm235.2 mm
2026-08-191510.71075.1172.1 mm235.9 mm
2026-08-201522.51086.8177.2 mm237.1 mm
2026-08-211532.51098.8177.7 mm238.2 mm
2026-08-221543.61110.8178.2 mm239.0 mm
2026-08-231559.11122.8178.8 mm239.8 mm

Forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC

10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record

GDD accumulation
141 GDDvs 98 GDD average
Total rainfall
1.8 mmvs 13.1 mm average

The forecast includes a period of potentially stressful heat. The region's 35°C heat threshold is reached Sep 3–4.

Sun8/30 31°Cavg 26°C 16°Cavg 14°C +12 GDD 0.6 mm
Mon8/31 27°Cavg 26°C 15°Cavg 14°C +11 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/1 30°Cavg 26°C 15°Cavg 14°C +11 GDD 0.0 mm
Wed9/2 33°Cavg 27°C 17°Cavg 13°C +14 GDD 0.0 mm
Thu9/3 36°Cavg 27°C 16°Cavg 13°C +15 GDD 0.0 mm
Fri9/4 38°Cavg 26°C 19°Cavg 14°C +18 GDD 0.0 mm
Sat9/5 34°Cavg 26°C 20°Cavg 14°C +18 GDD 0.0 mm
Sun9/6 35°Cavg 26°C 22°Cavg 13°C +18 GDD 1.1 mm
Mon9/7 28°Cavg 25°C 16°Cavg 14°C +12 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/8 27°Cavg 25°C 19°Cavg 13°C +12 GDD 0.0 mm

Data and methods

Show data sources and model assumptions

Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.

Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.

This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.

Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed August 23, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.

The Rioja model uses a April 1–October 31 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 35°C.

The historical series uses 3 ERA5 locations, 1 temperature station, and 1 rain station. Interpretation confidence: high. Geometry confidence: authoritative. Rules: rioja-v5-2026-08.