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Hungary · Multi-region weather view

Tokaj

Northeastern Hungarian vineyards from the Mád and Tarcal area through Tolcsva to Sátoraljaújhely, known for Furmint and Tokaji Aszú.

Continental seasons bring spring frost and summer heat. Autumn rain and dry intervals matter during the long harvest, while local noble-rot conditions require finer evidence.

Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Oct 17, 2026.

Current conditions

Model estimate valid Nov 3, 2026 · 06:00 UTC

Regional model estimate averaged across the configured sampling locations.

Temperature6.6°C
Dew Point3.2°C
Relative Humidity79%
24h RainfallUnavailable

Vintage explorer

Compare this vintage · View 2025 across regions →

Moderately cooler and moderately drier than normal.

Mean temperature15.2°C
Temperature anomaly-0.6°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days1487base 10°C
Hot days10≥ 32°C

What stood out in 2025

Less rain often lowers disease pressure, but vines may depend more on stored soil water or irrigation. A freeze after budbreak can damage new growth and reduce the crop.

Drier than baseline · Moderate confidence

Growing-season precipitation was 78 mm below the 1991–2020 baseline.

Less rain often lowers disease pressure, but vines may depend more on stored soil water or irrigation.

Spring freeze recorded · Moderate confidence

The regional record had 10 spring day(s) at or below -2°C.

A freeze after budbreak can damage new growth and reduce the crop.

How unusual was 2025?

The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.

Growing-season temperature

8th coolest of 35 vintages Cooler than 27 of 34 other vintages 15.2°C

Growing-season rainfall

10th driest of 35 vintages Drier than 25 of 34 other vintages 460.7 mm

Heat accumulation

7th lowest of 35 vintages Lower than 28 of 34 other vintages 1488 GDD

Hot days

13th fewest of 35 vintages Fewer than 21 of 34 other vintages 10 days

2025 month by month

Compared with 1991–2020

Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.

Frost watch Growing season Harvest window
  1. 1–31
    Frost watch

    Heat accumulation

    2025 0 GDD
    Typical 9 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 75.0 mm
    Typical 42.4 mm
    2025 freezing days
    14
    Typical
    11.2

    More freezing days than the typical month.

  2. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2025 101 GDD
    Typical 82 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 30.5 mm
    Typical 54.8 mm
    2025 freezing days
    4
    Typical
    1.4

    More freezing days than the typical month.

  3. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2025 102 GDD
    Typical 207 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 78.3 mm
    Typical 78.6 mm
    2025 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.0

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

  4. 1–30
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2025 333 GDD
    Typical 311 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 11.8 mm
    Typical 79.0 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

  5. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2025 352 GDD
    Typical 376 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 102.8 mm
    Typical 91.3 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  6. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2025 333 GDD
    Typical 374 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 39.6 mm
    Typical 62.5 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

  7. 1–30
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2025 243 GDD
    Typical 205 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 71.2 mm
    Typical 62.8 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  8. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2025 22 GDD
    Typical 71 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 48.0 mm
    Typical 57.8 mm

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

  9. 1–30
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2025 3 GDD
    Typical 9 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 78.4 mm
    Typical 52.4 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

View milestone calendar data as a table
Month2025 GDDTypical GDD2025 rainfallTypical rainfall2025 freezing daysTypical freezing days
March 2025 0 GDD 9 GDD 75.0 mm 42.4 mm 1411.2
April 2025 101 GDD 82 GDD 30.5 mm 54.8 mm 41.4
May 2025 102 GDD 207 GDD 78.3 mm 78.6 mm 00.0
June 2025 333 GDD 311 GDD 11.8 mm 79.0 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
July 2025 352 GDD 376 GDD 102.8 mm 91.3 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
August 2025 333 GDD 374 GDD 39.6 mm 62.5 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
September 2025 243 GDD 205 GDD 71.2 mm 62.8 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
October 2025 22 GDD 71 GDD 48.0 mm 57.8 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
November 2025 3 GDD 9 GDD 78.4 mm 52.4 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
Calendar data and method

Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.

Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Oct 17, 2026.

Replay the 2025 growing season

244 daily regional observations

Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.

Replay data and method

Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Oct 17, 2026.

Closest weather matches

These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.

  1. Closest match

    1992

    Most alike in Spring frost exposure and Growing-season precipitation.

    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days
    Growing-season precipitation
    more rain: 0.2 mm

    Largest difference: Hot-day count — more hot days

    View 1992 →

  2. Second closest

    1993

    Most alike in Spring frost exposure and Hot-day count.

    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days
    Hot-day count
    fewer hot days: 1 day

    Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — less rain

    View 1993 →

  3. Third closest

    1995

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Growing degree days.

    Hot-day count
    more hot days: 1 day
    Growing degree days
    higher: 32 GDD

    Largest difference: Growing-season precipitation — more rain

    View 1995 →
How similar years are calculated

Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.

Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Hot-day count (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%); Spring frost exposure (10%).

Calculated distances: 1992 0.377; 1993 0.503; 1995 0.610.

Growing-season temperature anomalyCompared with 1991-2020
Temperature anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2025 A line above zero indicates a warmer growing season than the 1991–2020 baseline. Select a point to inspect that vintage. +2.4°C −2.4°C 1991 2000 2010 2020 2025
Growing-season rainfall anomaly
Rainfall anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2025 Bars show millimeters above or below the 1991–2020 growing-season baseline. Select a bar to inspect that vintage. +320 mm −320 mm 1991 2000 2010 2020 2025
View historical chart data as a table
YearTemperature anomalyRainfall anomalyHot days
1991-1.4°C-34 mm4
1992-0.4°C-78 mm17
1993-1.0°C-138 mm9
1994-0.1°C-45 mm23
1995-1.1°C-4 mm11
1996-0.5°C+52 mm6
1997-1.5°C+5 mm3
1998-1.1°C+223 mm10
1999-0.2°C+71 mm5
2000+0.9°C-136 mm20
2001-0.8°C+88 mm6
2002+0.2°C+27 mm13
2003+0.4°C-132 mm26
2004-0.6°C+58 mm7
2005-0.4°C+43 mm9
2006+0.2°C-22 mm13
2007+0.3°C-58 mm22
2008+0.1°C-86 mm7
2009+0.9°C-74 mm15
2010-0.4°C+312 mm8
2011-0.1°C-139 mm11
2012+1.1°C-21 mm33
2013+0.4°C-52 mm18
2014+0.4°C+38 mm6
2015+0.9°C-85 mm39
2016+0.2°C+76 mm12
2017+0.1°C+66 mm21
2018+2.1°C-89 mm17
2019+1.3°C+51 mm25
2020+0.1°C+83 mm6
2021-0.3°C-107 mm25
2022+0.9°C-145 mm34
2023+0.8°C+126 mm16
2024+0.6°C-70 mm29
2025-0.6°C-78 mm10

winter

1.3°C

+1.3°C vs baseline

67 mm rain · -61 mm

spring

11.0°C

-0.5°C vs baseline

183 mm rain · +8 mm

summer

21.1°C

-0.5°C vs baseline

154 mm rain · -79 mm

harvest

11.1°C

-0.0°C vs baseline

197 mm rain · +25 mm

Weather events

Periods that crossed one of the published regional thresholds, shown in date order.

  1. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -3.7°C
    Duration
    8 days
    Severe-freeze days
    4 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  2. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -4.9°C
    Duration
    6 days
    Severe-freeze days
    5 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  3. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -3.9°C
    Duration
    4 days
    Severe-freeze days
    1 day

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  4. Dry spell

    Duration
    25 days
    Total rain
    2.0 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  5. Heat episode

    Peak temperature
    32.8°C
    Duration
    2 days
    Heat accumulation
    30 GDD

  6. Heat episode

    Peak temperature
    34.0°C
    Duration
    3 days
    Heat accumulation
    45 GDD

  7. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    24.4 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    24.4 mm
    Trigger threshold
    23.6 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

  8. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    25.8 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    25.8 mm
    Trigger threshold
    23.6 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

How events are detected

Weather & Vines combined regional series; method event-timeline-v2-2026-07, rules tokaj-catalog-v1-2026-10. Source last updated Oct 17, 2026, calculated Oct 18, 2026. Each configured point must have at least 95.0% coverage.

1991–present

Climate change

Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.

Compare regions

Observed record

Historical trends, 1991–2025

Growing degree days changed +82.8 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +47.7 to +117.8 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.

How it is measured: Across the April 1–November 30 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.

Growing degree days · annual change from the 1991–2020 average1991–2025

Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.

View annual growing degree days data
VintageGrowing degree daysChange from 1991–2020
19911367 GDD-267 GDD
19921574 GDD-60 GDD
19931546 GDD-88 GDD
19941649 GDD+14 GDD
19951520 GDD-115 GDD
19961450 GDD-184 GDD
19971426 GDD-208 GDD
19981416 GDD-219 GDD
19991608 GDD-27 GDD
20001740 GDD+106 GDD
20011496 GDD-139 GDD
20021702 GDD+67 GDD
20031767 GDD+133 GDD
20041461 GDD-174 GDD
20051555 GDD-79 GDD
20061614 GDD-21 GDD
20071744 GDD+110 GDD
20081606 GDD-28 GDD
20091803 GDD+169 GDD
20101455 GDD-179 GDD
20111673 GDD+39 GDD
20121844 GDD+210 GDD
20131678 GDD+43 GDD
20141659 GDD+24 GDD
20151843 GDD+209 GDD
20161684 GDD+49 GDD
20171644 GDD+10 GDD
20182063 GDD+428 GDD
20191813 GDD+179 GDD
20201633 GDD-1 GDD
20211585 GDD-50 GDD
20221831 GDD+197 GDD
20231812 GDD+177 GDD
20241822 GDD+187 GDD
20251488 GDD-147 GDD
Growing-season mean temperature
+0.47 °C per decade 95% interval +0.27 to +0.68
Growing degree days
+82.76 GDD per decade 95% interval +47.75 to +117.78
Growing-season precipitation
-2.61 mm per decade 95% interval -31.45 to +26.24
Hot days
+3.83 days per decade 95% interval +1.89 to +5.77
Spring frost days
-0.76 days per decade 95% interval -2.74 to +1.22
Longest dry spell
+2.19 days per decade 95% interval +0.63 to +3.75

Last Updated October 17, 2026

Model ensemble

Projected climate through 2075

Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.

Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.

PeriodWeighted medianWeighted central 80%Models per pathway
2021-2040+1.1°C+0.7 to +1.6°C25
2041-2060+1.7°C+1.1 to +2.7°C25
2061-2075+2.1°C+1.6 to +3.6°C25
How pathways are combined

For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Compare projection measures across regions

Typical year · 1991–2020

When to visit

This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.

Deterministic IFS forecast

Next ten days

Detailed forecast outlook

Regional average across 3 sampling locations.

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · model run Nov 3, 2026 at 00:00 UTC · retrieved Nov 3, 2026 at 08:24 UTC

Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.

DateTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTueWedThu
High 10°C 10°C 9°C 9°C 8°C 8°C 9°C 7°C 10°C 16°C
Low 6°C 4°C 3°C 2°C -0°C -1°C 0°C 1°C 4°C 8°C
Rain 0.8 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.3 mm 0.1 mm

Across the typical year: Early August has the warmest median afternoon high (28.3°C); Late January has the coolest (1.2°C). Wet days are most frequent in Late May (43%) and least frequent in Late August (28%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lowsMedians and middle 50% of daily readings

Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lows for Tokaj Median daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 24 early and late-month periods under the 1991–2020 baseline. Neutral bands show the 25th to 75th percentile. -10°C0°C10°C20°C30°C JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
How often a day is wetShare of days with at least 1 mm of rain

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Wet-day frequency through the typical year for Tokaj The fraction of days receiving at least one millimeter of rain in each early and late-month period under the 1991–2020 baseline. 0%25%50%75%100% JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
View all 24 periods as a table

Scroll horizontally to view all columns.

Tokaj typical weather by half-month, 1991–2020
PeriodAfternoon high, median (middle 50%)Overnight low, median (middle 50%)Wet-day frequencyPeriod rain, median (middle 50%)
Jan 1–151.8°C (-1.5–5.0°C)-2.3°C (-6.3–0.5°C)30%14.5 mm (11.9–25.1 mm)
Jan 16–311.2°C (-1.1–4.2°C)-3.4°C (-6.6–-0.8°C)29%16.7 mm (10.7–25.4 mm)
Feb 1–153.9°C (0.3–6.9°C)-2.2°C (-5.3–0.4°C)34%18.9 mm (10.1–34.9 mm)
Feb 16–295.2°C (2.2–8.8°C)-1.4°C (-3.9–0.6°C)31%16.5 mm (8.6–21.8 mm)
Mar 1–159.4°C (5.4–11.9°C)0.6°C (-1.9–3.7°C)32%16.4 mm (8.1–28.1 mm)
Mar 16–3111.6°C (7.8–15.8°C)2.0°C (-0.5–5.0°C)30%18.5 mm (8.9–32.4 mm)
Apr 1–1515.5°C (12.1–19.0°C)5.5°C (2.8–7.9°C)35%23.7 mm (16.1–31.8 mm)
Apr 16–3019.5°C (15.8–22.3°C)8.1°C (5.9–10.0°C)32%25.1 mm (14.2–35.3 mm)
May 1–1521.3°C (18.3–24.5°C)10.4°C (8.4–12.5°C)37%30.3 mm (15.8–36.7 mm)
May 16–3123.0°C (19.0–26.7°C)12.1°C (9.9–14.2°C)43%37.5 mm (27.6–61.6 mm)
Jun 1–1525.6°C (22.0–28.7°C)14.7°C (12.4–16.5°C)43%45.3 mm (32.1–54.8 mm)
Jun 16–3026.1°C (23.3–29.3°C)15.4°C (13.3–17.7°C)42%30.5 mm (18.6–48.9 mm)
Jul 1–1527.8°C (24.4–30.4°C)16.1°C (14.1–17.9°C)40%34.2 mm (26.1–48.0 mm)
Jul 16–3128.2°C (24.7–31.0°C)17.3°C (15.3–18.8°C)40%54.2 mm (21.9–65.0 mm)
Aug 1–1528.3°C (25.6–31.3°C)17.1°C (15.3–19.0°C)34%27.7 mm (18.8–46.3 mm)
Aug 16–3127.2°C (24.3–30.4°C)15.8°C (13.5–17.5°C)28%21.7 mm (12.6–42.1 mm)
Sep 1–1524.1°C (20.4–27.1°C)12.9°C (10.6–15.0°C)31%21.5 mm (12.7–49.0 mm)
Sep 16–3020.2°C (17.2–23.4°C)10.2°C (8.3–12.4°C)32%32.9 mm (16.4–44.0 mm)
Oct 1–1517.9°C (14.2–21.1°C)8.1°C (5.7–10.7°C)28%20.1 mm (8.2–43.3 mm)
Oct 16–3113.3°C (10.8–16.5°C)5.4°C (2.4–8.2°C)29%27.1 mm (11.5–44.4 mm)
Nov 1–1510.6°C (7.6–13.9°C)3.2°C (0.1–6.1°C)32%26.0 mm (9.1–39.2 mm)
Nov 16–306.5°C (2.9–9.8°C)0.8°C (-1.6–4.3°C)35%19.5 mm (12.0–32.6 mm)
Dec 1–153.6°C (0.9–6.2°C)-0.9°C (-3.1–1.8°C)31%21.7 mm (8.9–30.2 mm)
Dec 16–311.6°C (-1.3–4.8°C)-2.5°C (-5.9–0.6°C)33%29.4 mm (9.5–35.7 mm)

Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.

Historical climatology Last Updated October 17, 2026

Season to date

Growing season heat and rainfall

Apr 1–Nov 2, 2026

Compare this season across regions →

Growing degree days1658.8base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall194.3 mmweighted regional total
Cumulative growing degree daysBase 10°C

2026 season1991–2020 average

Growing degree days accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily mean temperature above 10 degrees Celsius from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 1659 GDD 0 Apr ’26MayJunJulAugSepOctNov
Cumulative growing-season rainfallRegional weighted mean

2026 season1991–2020 average

Rainfall accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily rainfall in millimeters from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 481 mm 0 Apr ’26MayJunJulAugSepOctNov
View growing-season accumulation data
DateSeason GDD1991–2020 average GDDSeason rainfall1991–2020 average rainfall
2026-04-010.01.10.0 mm1.1 mm
2026-04-020.72.00.1 mm2.7 mm
2026-04-033.73.40.1 mm4.1 mm
2026-04-044.55.40.1 mm5.0 mm
2026-04-057.27.50.1 mm7.3 mm
2026-04-069.79.10.2 mm10.8 mm
2026-04-079.710.90.2 mm12.3 mm
2026-04-089.712.80.2 mm13.1 mm
2026-04-099.714.40.5 mm14.5 mm
2026-04-109.715.80.6 mm15.9 mm
2026-04-119.717.20.8 mm17.6 mm
2026-04-129.719.10.8 mm20.5 mm
2026-04-139.921.10.8 mm22.2 mm
2026-04-1414.423.04.4 mm24.8 mm
2026-04-1518.725.04.5 mm26.4 mm
2026-04-1622.527.55.0 mm27.5 mm
2026-04-1726.329.95.2 mm29.8 mm
2026-04-1828.732.15.2 mm32.8 mm
2026-04-1930.634.85.5 mm35.6 mm
2026-04-2031.737.57.4 mm38.1 mm
2026-04-2131.740.37.8 mm39.7 mm
2026-04-2231.743.77.9 mm41.2 mm
2026-04-2332.747.67.9 mm42.1 mm
2026-04-2435.051.57.9 mm43.8 mm
2026-04-2539.356.07.9 mm45.9 mm
2026-04-2640.160.77.9 mm48.0 mm
2026-04-2740.165.97.9 mm49.9 mm
2026-04-2840.871.27.9 mm51.8 mm
2026-04-2940.876.67.9 mm53.5 mm
2026-04-3040.882.37.9 mm54.8 mm
2026-05-0140.888.57.9 mm56.3 mm
2026-05-0244.794.57.9 mm58.0 mm
2026-05-0347.9100.97.9 mm59.0 mm
2026-05-0453.0106.47.9 mm61.2 mm
2026-05-0559.5111.97.9 mm63.3 mm
2026-05-0666.9117.57.9 mm65.6 mm
2026-05-0774.5123.213.8 mm67.4 mm
2026-05-0881.1128.616.7 mm69.4 mm
2026-05-0987.5134.416.7 mm70.9 mm
2026-05-1093.5140.616.7 mm72.4 mm
2026-05-1198.8147.633.8 mm74.2 mm
2026-05-12101.8154.344.8 mm77.6 mm
2026-05-13103.1160.246.1 mm80.7 mm
2026-05-14104.3165.746.1 mm83.2 mm
2026-05-15108.2171.448.0 mm86.5 mm
2026-05-16112.6177.059.9 mm90.4 mm
2026-05-17117.7183.260.6 mm93.6 mm
2026-05-18121.7190.261.2 mm97.6 mm
2026-05-19127.6197.862.5 mm100.0 mm
2026-05-20135.7205.362.6 mm101.5 mm
2026-05-21143.8212.762.6 mm104.8 mm
2026-05-22153.9219.962.6 mm108.2 mm
2026-05-23163.7227.362.6 mm109.9 mm
2026-05-24174.3234.562.6 mm112.6 mm
2026-05-25186.5241.862.8 mm115.4 mm
2026-05-26198.8249.662.8 mm117.0 mm
2026-05-27210.6257.663.3 mm121.1 mm
2026-05-28217.5265.763.3 mm124.8 mm
2026-05-29223.4273.463.3 mm127.8 mm
2026-05-30229.6281.163.9 mm130.2 mm
2026-05-31238.2289.064.2 mm133.4 mm
2026-06-01244.1297.070.4 mm136.0 mm
2026-06-02253.4304.871.3 mm138.2 mm
2026-06-03263.2313.671.4 mm142.5 mm
2026-06-04274.1323.074.5 mm145.6 mm
2026-06-05284.7332.175.2 mm148.1 mm
2026-06-06293.9341.575.9 mm151.0 mm
2026-06-07303.6351.576.7 mm153.8 mm
2026-06-08313.7362.076.7 mm155.3 mm
2026-06-09324.8373.076.9 mm157.6 mm
2026-06-10337.8383.877.1 mm161.4 mm
2026-06-11346.3394.885.1 mm166.4 mm
2026-06-12353.0406.086.3 mm169.4 mm
2026-06-13359.6416.786.7 mm171.4 mm
2026-06-14368.0426.987.6 mm174.3 mm
2026-06-15373.8437.087.8 mm176.2 mm
2026-06-16382.2447.387.8 mm178.0 mm
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2026-10-221658.31615.2181.1 mm472.7 mm
2026-10-231658.71616.7181.1 mm474.9 mm
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2026-10-251658.81619.7181.4 mm478.3 mm
2026-10-261658.81621.2194.3 mm479.0 mm
2026-10-271658.81622.3194.3 mm480.8 mm

Forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Nov 3, 2026 at 00:00 UTC

Regional average across 3 sampling locations. Daily highs and lows are averages of the locations’ daily highs and lows.

10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record

GDD accumulation
1 GDDvs 5 GDD average
Total rainfall
1.2 mmvs 21.8 mm average

No unusually hot or wet period stands out in the short-range forecast.

Tue11/3 10°Cavg 12°C 6°Cavg 3°C +0 GDD 0.8 mm
Wed11/4 10°Cavg 12°C 4°Cavg 4°C +0 GDD 0.0 mm
Thu11/5 9°Cavg 12°C 3°Cavg 3°C +0 GDD 0.0 mm
Fri11/6 9°Cavg 12°C 2°Cavg 3°C +0 GDD 0.0 mm
Sat11/7 8°Cavg 12°C 0°Cavg 4°C +0 GDD 0.0 mm
Sun11/8 8°Cavg 11°C -1°Cavg 4°C +0 GDD 0.0 mm
Mon11/9 9°Cavg 11°C 0°Cavg 4°C +0 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue11/10 7°Cavg 9°C 1°Cavg 3°C +0 GDD 0.0 mm
Wed11/11 10°Cavg 9°C 4°Cavg 2°C +0 GDD 0.3 mm
Thu11/12 16°Cavg 9°C 8°Cavg 2°C +1 GDD 0.1 mm

Data and methods

Show data sources and model assumptions

Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.

Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.

This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.

Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed November 2, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.

The Tokaj model uses a April 1–November 30 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 32°C.