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United States · Multi-region weather view

Sonoma & Mendocino

North Coast valleys from Sonoma through Mendocino and Anderson Valley.

Fog and Pacific air cool the western valleys, while vineyards farther inland receive more heat.

Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Sep 13, 2026.

Current conditions

Observations through Oct 10, 2026 · 06:00 UTC

Temperature15.3°C
Dew Point6.8°C
Relative Humidity57%
24h Rainfall0.0 mmmodeled IFS total through Oct 9

Vintage explorer

Compare this vintage · View 2025 across regions →

Moderately cooler and significantly drier than normal.

Mean temperature17.1°C
Temperature anomaly-0.7°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days1532base 10°C
Hot days3≥ 32°C

What stood out in 2025

No single weather pattern stands out in the regional record.

Close to the usual range · Low confidence

Temperature, rainfall, heat, and frost all stayed within the site's published thresholds.

No single weather pattern stands out in the regional record.

How unusual was 2025?

The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.

Growing-season temperature

13th warmest of 35 vintages Warmer than 22 of 34 other vintages 17.1°C

Growing-season rainfall

8th driest of 35 vintages Drier than 27 of 34 other vintages 120.7 mm

Heat accumulation

14th highest of 35 vintages Higher than 21 of 34 other vintages 1533 GDD

Hot days

2nd fewest of 35 vintages Fewer than 32 of 34 other vintages 3 days

2025 month by month

Compared with 1991–2020

Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.

Frost watch Growing season Harvest window
  1. 1–31
    Frost watch

    Heat accumulation

    2025 0 GDD
    Typical 70 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 110.9 mm
    Typical 128.0 mm
    2025 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.3

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

  2. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2025 111 GDD
    Typical 106 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 20.8 mm
    Typical 61.1 mm
    2025 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.1

    Drier than the typical month.

  3. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2025 217 GDD
    Typical 186 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 3.0 mm
    Typical 34.8 mm
    2025 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.0

    Drier than the typical month.

  4. 1–30
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2025 248 GDD
    Typical 263 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 0.0 mm
    Typical 10.5 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

  5. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2025 284 GDD
    Typical 315 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 0.3 mm
    Typical 0.6 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  6. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2025 352 GDD
    Typical 319 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 0.1 mm
    Typical 1.7 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  7. 1–30
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2025 319 GDD
    Typical 287 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 18.3 mm
    Typical 3.7 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

  8. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2025 189 GDD
    Typical 206 GDD

    Rainfall

    2025 46.3 mm
    Typical 45.4 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

View milestone calendar data as a table
Month2025 GDDTypical GDD2025 rainfallTypical rainfall2025 freezing daysTypical freezing days
March 2025 0 GDD 70 GDD 110.9 mm 128.0 mm 00.3
April 2025 111 GDD 106 GDD 20.8 mm 61.1 mm 00.1
May 2025 217 GDD 186 GDD 3.0 mm 34.8 mm 00.0
June 2025 248 GDD 263 GDD 0.0 mm 10.5 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
July 2025 284 GDD 315 GDD 0.3 mm 0.6 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
August 2025 352 GDD 319 GDD 0.1 mm 1.7 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
September 2025 319 GDD 287 GDD 18.3 mm 3.7 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
October 2025 189 GDD 206 GDD 46.3 mm 45.4 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
Calendar data and method

Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.

Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Sep 13, 2026.

Replay the 2025 growing season

214 daily regional observations

Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.

Replay data and method

Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Sep 13, 2026.

Closest weather matches

These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.

  1. Closest match

    2013

    Most alike in Spring frost exposure and Growing-season precipitation.

    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days
    Growing-season precipitation
    more rain: 4.2 mm

    Largest difference: Hot-day count — more hot days

    View 2013 →

  2. Second closest

    1997

    Most alike in Harvest precipitation and Growing degree days.

    Harvest precipitation
    more rain: 8.4 mm
    Growing degree days
    higher: 59 GDD

    Largest difference: Growing-season precipitation — more rain

    View 1997 →

  3. Third closest

    1994

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Spring frost exposure.

    Hot-day count
    the same: 0 days
    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days

    Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — less rain

    View 1994 →
How similar years are calculated

Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.

Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Hot-day count (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%); Spring frost exposure (10%).

Calculated distances: 2013 0.701; 1997 0.718; 1994 0.725.

Growing-season temperature anomalyCompared with 1991-2020
Temperature anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 A line above zero indicates a warmer growing season than the 1991–2020 baseline. Select a point to inspect that vintage. +2.2°C −2.2°C 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
Growing-season rainfall anomaly
Rainfall anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 Bars show millimeters above or below the 1991–2020 growing-season baseline. Select a bar to inspect that vintage. +310 mm −310 mm 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
View historical chart data as a table
YearTemperature anomalyRainfall anomalyHot days
1991-1.3°C-25 mm6
1992-0.0°C+36 mm6
1993-0.8°C+75 mm10
1994-1.2°C-21 mm3
1995-1.1°C+54 mm14
1996-0.8°C+81 mm15
1997-0.4°C+45 mm7
1998-1.5°C+91 mm17
1999-1.6°C-33 mm11
2000-1.1°C+92 mm9
2001-0.8°C-55 mm16
2002-1.3°C-102 mm18
2003-0.8°C+90 mm21
2004-0.6°C+5 mm12
2005-1.3°C+132 mm6
2006-0.9°C+69 mm14
2007-1.6°C+40 mm4
2008-1.1°C-93 mm17
2009-1.3°C+41 mm11
2010-2.0°C+297 mm9
2011-1.6°C+94 mm6
2012-1.4°C-8 mm5
2013-0.8°C-33 mm11
2014+0.0°C-29 mm15
2015+0.0°C-65 mm15
2016-0.6°C+113 mm8
2017-0.2°C+13 mm20
2018-0.9°C+29 mm2
2019-0.3°C+30 mm13
2020+0.5°C-52 mm18
2021-0.5°C+103 mm14
2022-0.5°C+27 mm11
2023-0.8°C-52 mm10
2024-0.0°C-59 mm23
2025-0.7°C-37 mm3
2026-0.3°C-30 mm12

winter

9.8°C

+0.4°C vs baseline

541 mm rain · +2 mm

spring

13.0°C

-0.7°C vs baseline

187 mm rain · -36 mm

summer

18.8°C

-0.9°C vs baseline

3 mm rain · -10 mm

harvest

17.4°C

-0.7°C vs baseline

77 mm rain · +28 mm

Weather events

Periods that crossed one of the published regional thresholds, shown in date order.

  1. Dry spell

    Duration
    17 days
    Total rain
    0.8 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  2. Dry spell

    Duration
    14 days
    Total rain
    0.2 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  3. Dry spell

    Duration
    119 days
    Total rain
    4.7 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  4. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    20.8 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    20.8 mm
    Trigger threshold
    20.0 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

  5. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    22.4 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    22.4 mm
    Trigger threshold
    20.0 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

How events are detected

Weather & Vines combined regional series; method event-timeline-v2-2026-07, rules sonoma-county-catalog-v1-2026-07. Source last updated Aug 1, 2026, calculated Sep 21, 2026. Each configured point must have at least 95.0% coverage.

1991–present

Climate change

Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.

Compare regions

Observed record

Historical trends, 1991–2025

Growing degree days changed +52.6 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +19.4 to +85.7 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.

How it is measured: Across the April 1–October 31 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.

Growing degree days · annual change from the 1991–2020 average1991–2025

Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.

View annual growing degree days data
VintageGrowing degree daysChange from 1991–2020
19911582 GDD-100 GDD
19921815 GDD+133 GDD
19931703 GDD+21 GDD
19941579 GDD-103 GDD
19951631 GDD-51 GDD
19961711 GDD+29 GDD
19971808 GDD+125 GDD
19981526 GDD-156 GDD
19991554 GDD-128 GDD
20001627 GDD-55 GDD
20011738 GDD+56 GDD
20021614 GDD-68 GDD
20031693 GDD+11 GDD
20041740 GDD+58 GDD
20051551 GDD-131 GDD
20061652 GDD-31 GDD
20071588 GDD-94 GDD
20081673 GDD-9 GDD
20091619 GDD-63 GDD
20101453 GDD-230 GDD
20111527 GDD-155 GDD
20121587 GDD-95 GDD
20131696 GDD+14 GDD
20141856 GDD+173 GDD
20151865 GDD+182 GDD
20161707 GDD+25 GDD
20171867 GDD+185 GDD
20181686 GDD+3 GDD
20191814 GDD+132 GDD
20202006 GDD+324 GDD
20211761 GDD+78 GDD
20221843 GDD+161 GDD
20231702 GDD+20 GDD
20241884 GDD+202 GDD
20251719 GDD+37 GDD
Growing-season mean temperature
+0.25 °C per decade 95% interval +0.09 to +0.41
Growing degree days
+52.55 GDD per decade 95% interval +19.43 to +85.67
Growing-season precipitation
-11.85 mm per decade 95% interval -29.10 to +5.40
Hot days
+2.24 days per decade 95% interval +0.48 to +4.00
Spring frost days
-0.02 days per decade 95% interval -0.20 to +0.16
Longest dry spell
-2.11 days per decade 95% interval -10.15 to +5.93

Last Updated September 13, 2026

Model ensemble

Projected climate through 2075

Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.

Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.

PeriodWeighted medianWeighted central 80%Models per pathway
2021-2040+0.9°C+0.5 to +1.3°C25
2041-2060+1.3°C+1.0 to +2.1°C25
2061-2075+1.8°C+1.4 to +2.7°C25
How pathways are combined

For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Compare projection measures across regions

Typical year · 1991–2020

When to visit

This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.

Deterministic IFS forecast

Next ten days

Detailed forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · model run Oct 10, 2026 at 00:00 UTC · retrieved Oct 10, 2026 at 08:19 UTC

Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.

DateSatSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSunMon
High 21°C 22°C 18°C 21°C 24°C 27°C 24°C 25°C 23°C 20°C
Low 9°C 8°C 8°C 8°C 9°C 11°C 12°C 11°C 10°C 10°C
Rain 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm

Across the typical year: Early August has the warmest median afternoon high (28.6°C); Late December has the coolest (13.4°C). Wet days are most frequent in Early December (46%) and least frequent in Early August (0%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lowsMedians and middle 50% of daily readings

Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lows for Sonoma & Mendocino Median daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 24 early and late-month periods under the 1991–2020 baseline. Neutral bands show the 25th to 75th percentile. 0°C10°C20°C30°C JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
How often a day is wetShare of days with at least 1 mm of rain

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Wet-day frequency through the typical year for Sonoma & Mendocino The fraction of days receiving at least one millimeter of rain in each early and late-month period under the 1991–2020 baseline. 0%25%50%75%100% JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
View all 24 periods as a table

Scroll horizontally to view all columns.

Sonoma & Mendocino typical weather by half-month, 1991–2020
PeriodAfternoon high, median (middle 50%)Overnight low, median (middle 50%)Wet-day frequencyPeriod rain, median (middle 50%)
Jan 1–1513.6°C (11.9–15.6°C)3.3°C (0.5–5.9°C)42%62.5 mm (13.6–114.7 mm)
Jan 16–3114.5°C (13.0–16.9°C)3.7°C (1.3–6.4°C)43%70.4 mm (17.9–150.4 mm)
Feb 1–1516.0°C (14.1–18.9°C)4.2°C (1.8–7.0°C)38%60.6 mm (20.8–136.1 mm)
Feb 16–2915.3°C (13.1–19.0°C)4.6°C (2.4–6.6°C)44%81.5 mm (29.6–143.9 mm)
Mar 1–1517.5°C (14.7–20.6°C)5.1°C (2.8–7.1°C)38%60.2 mm (16.5–85.7 mm)
Mar 16–3118.2°C (15.7–21.8°C)5.8°C (3.8–7.6°C)37%34.0 mm (16.3–83.1 mm)
Apr 1–1518.9°C (16.6–21.8°C)5.7°C (3.9–7.7°C)29%31.8 mm (13.9–55.8 mm)
Apr 16–3021.0°C (18.5–24.8°C)7.0°C (5.3–8.7°C)22%15.9 mm (7.4–31.5 mm)
May 1–1522.6°C (19.9–25.6°C)8.0°C (6.4–9.3°C)13%5.7 mm (1.1–22.4 mm)
May 16–3123.5°C (21.1–26.7°C)8.9°C (7.6–10.2°C)14%2.3 mm (0.6–27.0 mm)
Jun 1–1526.1°C (23.3–29.0°C)9.9°C (8.7–11.4°C)6%1.3 mm (0.1–5.5 mm)
Jun 16–3027.9°C (25.4–30.5°C)10.7°C (9.2–12.1°C)4%0.1 mm (0.0–3.6 mm)
Jul 1–1528.6°C (26.5–30.8°C)11.2°C (10.1–12.1°C)1%0.0 mm (0.0–0.2 mm)
Jul 16–3128.4°C (26.3–30.8°C)11.7°C (10.7–12.6°C)0%0.1 mm (0.0–0.4 mm)
Aug 1–1528.6°C (26.4–31.2°C)11.4°C (10.3–12.5°C)0%0.1 mm (0.0–0.3 mm)
Aug 16–3128.6°C (26.5–31.4°C)11.5°C (10.3–12.6°C)1%0.1 mm (0.0–0.5 mm)
Sep 1–1528.3°C (25.9–31.6°C)10.9°C (9.6–12.2°C)2%0.1 mm (0.0–0.5 mm)
Sep 16–3027.7°C (25.2–31.2°C)10.2°C (8.8–11.4°C)4%0.8 mm (0.1–2.9 mm)
Oct 1–1526.1°C (22.9–29.3°C)9.0°C (7.2–10.5°C)10%1.7 mm (0.2–23.9 mm)
Oct 16–3123.5°C (20.4–26.8°C)7.9°C (6.1–9.7°C)16%12.5 mm (1.1–37.7 mm)
Nov 1–1520.0°C (17.3–23.1°C)6.1°C (3.9–8.4°C)26%19.4 mm (8.7–66.4 mm)
Nov 16–3016.8°C (15.0–18.9°C)4.4°C (2.2–7.0°C)35%42.7 mm (19.2–82.7 mm)
Dec 1–1514.5°C (13.1–16.3°C)3.2°C (1.0–7.3°C)46%90.7 mm (31.8–140.6 mm)
Dec 16–3113.4°C (11.8–15.5°C)2.3°C (0.1–4.9°C)39%69.0 mm (13.7–146.1 mm)

Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.

Historical climatology Last Updated September 13, 2026

Season to date

Growing season heat and rainfall

Apr 1–Oct 9, 2026

Compare this season across regions →

Growing degree days1614.0base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall121.8 mmweighted regional total
Cumulative growing degree daysBase 10°C

2026 season1991–2020 average

Growing degree days accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily mean temperature above 10 degrees Celsius from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 1614 GDD 0 Apr ’26MayJunJulAugSepOct
Cumulative growing-season rainfallRegional weighted mean

2026 season1991–2020 average

Rainfall accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily rainfall in millimeters from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 122 mm 0 Apr ’26MayJunJulAugSepOct
View growing-season accumulation data
DateSeason GDD1991–2020 average GDDSeason rainfall1991–2020 average rainfall
2026-04-013.03.14.1 mm3.5 mm
2026-04-024.96.14.1 mm5.0 mm
2026-04-039.78.84.1 mm6.7 mm
2026-04-0415.611.34.1 mm9.6 mm
2026-04-0522.513.54.1 mm12.0 mm
2026-04-0627.616.14.1 mm15.6 mm
2026-04-0732.418.84.1 mm20.5 mm
2026-04-0839.721.14.3 mm23.2 mm
2026-04-0945.423.64.6 mm24.9 mm
2026-04-1049.326.519.4 mm26.2 mm
2026-04-1150.029.440.7 mm30.6 mm
2026-04-1250.932.454.2 mm35.8 mm
2026-04-1352.835.554.2 mm38.7 mm
2026-04-1455.338.454.2 mm39.5 mm
2026-04-1558.240.954.2 mm40.2 mm
2026-04-1661.743.954.2 mm42.8 mm
2026-04-1766.147.454.2 mm45.4 mm
2026-04-1870.250.954.2 mm46.6 mm
2026-04-1974.754.554.3 mm47.9 mm
2026-04-2076.258.777.0 mm49.9 mm
2026-04-2178.062.892.3 mm50.9 mm
2026-04-2280.467.399.7 mm52.2 mm
2026-04-2384.271.999.7 mm53.5 mm
2026-04-2488.976.499.8 mm55.4 mm
2026-04-2591.180.899.8 mm57.3 mm
2026-04-2693.485.4100.1 mm57.8 mm
2026-04-2796.490.3101.7 mm58.7 mm
2026-04-28101.095.3101.9 mm59.7 mm
2026-04-29107.0100.5101.9 mm60.8 mm
2026-04-30114.1106.0101.9 mm61.1 mm
2026-05-01121.4111.8101.9 mm62.7 mm
2026-05-02126.1117.5101.9 mm64.1 mm
2026-05-03129.7123.0102.0 mm65.5 mm
2026-05-04132.0128.1108.7 mm66.5 mm
2026-05-05136.1133.1109.1 mm68.3 mm
2026-05-06142.6138.2109.1 mm68.7 mm
2026-05-07148.7143.8109.2 mm69.8 mm
2026-05-08156.4149.6109.2 mm71.0 mm
2026-05-09165.1154.9109.2 mm71.7 mm
2026-05-10174.4160.3109.2 mm72.1 mm
2026-05-11184.1165.6109.2 mm72.4 mm
2026-05-12191.7171.0109.2 mm73.3 mm
2026-05-13199.7176.3109.2 mm73.9 mm
2026-05-14208.4181.9109.2 mm74.8 mm
2026-05-15217.7188.1109.2 mm77.1 mm
2026-05-16225.1194.1109.2 mm79.4 mm
2026-05-17231.6200.3109.2 mm81.2 mm
2026-05-18242.1206.4109.2 mm84.4 mm
2026-05-19251.4212.2109.2 mm86.2 mm
2026-05-20262.0218.1109.2 mm86.9 mm
2026-05-21273.0224.2109.2 mm88.0 mm
2026-05-22280.2230.6109.2 mm88.4 mm
2026-05-23286.3237.4109.3 mm89.0 mm
2026-05-24292.2244.1109.3 mm89.3 mm
2026-05-25296.1250.6109.3 mm90.3 mm
2026-05-26300.7256.9109.4 mm91.2 mm
2026-05-27305.0263.2109.8 mm92.5 mm
2026-05-28310.9269.8111.4 mm93.6 mm
2026-05-29317.0276.8111.4 mm94.9 mm
2026-05-30324.1283.9111.4 mm95.4 mm
2026-05-31333.0291.7111.4 mm95.8 mm
2026-06-01342.9299.8111.4 mm96.1 mm
2026-06-02352.0307.8111.4 mm96.2 mm
2026-06-03363.2315.7111.4 mm96.6 mm
2026-06-04374.4323.4111.4 mm98.1 mm
2026-06-05387.2330.9111.4 mm98.7 mm
2026-06-06395.8338.1111.4 mm99.1 mm
2026-06-07404.2345.5111.4 mm99.1 mm
2026-06-08412.1353.4111.8 mm100.1 mm
2026-06-09421.7361.9111.9 mm100.5 mm
2026-06-10435.5370.3111.9 mm100.7 mm
2026-06-11453.0378.7111.9 mm100.8 mm
2026-06-12466.3387.2111.9 mm100.9 mm
2026-06-13477.4395.9111.9 mm100.9 mm
2026-06-14486.5405.1111.9 mm101.0 mm
2026-06-15495.9413.8111.9 mm101.4 mm
2026-06-16504.6422.5111.9 mm101.8 mm
2026-06-17513.0431.5111.9 mm102.0 mm
2026-06-18519.8440.8112.0 mm102.1 mm
2026-06-19526.7450.0112.3 mm102.1 mm
2026-06-20534.8459.4112.3 mm102.1 mm
2026-06-21543.6468.8112.3 mm102.1 mm
2026-06-22552.4478.3112.4 mm102.2 mm
2026-06-23561.1487.5112.4 mm102.2 mm
2026-06-24569.4496.7112.4 mm102.3 mm
2026-06-25578.9506.3112.4 mm103.1 mm
2026-06-26587.8515.8112.5 mm103.6 mm
2026-06-27596.4525.4112.5 mm104.0 mm
2026-06-28605.8535.2112.5 mm105.1 mm
2026-06-29616.1544.9112.5 mm105.9 mm
2026-06-30626.8555.0112.5 mm106.3 mm
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2026-07-02645.9575.3112.5 mm106.3 mm
2026-07-03655.2585.3112.5 mm106.3 mm
2026-07-04664.6595.4112.5 mm106.3 mm
2026-07-05673.0605.2112.5 mm106.3 mm
2026-07-06680.8614.9112.5 mm106.3 mm
2026-07-07688.9624.8112.6 mm106.3 mm
2026-07-08698.2634.9112.6 mm106.4 mm
2026-07-09709.7645.1112.6 mm106.4 mm
2026-07-10720.5655.0112.6 mm106.4 mm
2026-07-11731.7664.9112.6 mm106.5 mm
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2026-07-13759.1685.3112.7 mm106.5 mm
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2026-07-17814.1726.1112.7 mm106.6 mm
2026-07-18823.7736.3112.7 mm106.7 mm
2026-07-19833.5746.4112.8 mm106.7 mm
2026-07-20843.7756.6112.9 mm106.7 mm
2026-07-21858.7766.8112.9 mm106.7 mm
2026-07-22868.4777.1113.4 mm106.7 mm
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2026-07-24891.3798.2113.4 mm106.8 mm
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2026-07-26915.5819.0113.4 mm106.8 mm
2026-07-27927.4829.4113.4 mm106.9 mm
2026-07-28940.2839.6113.4 mm106.9 mm
2026-07-29953.8849.5113.4 mm106.9 mm
2026-07-30966.6859.6113.4 mm106.9 mm
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2026-08-01995.0880.2113.4 mm106.9 mm
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2026-08-031025.3900.8113.4 mm106.9 mm
2026-08-041037.5910.8113.4 mm107.0 mm
2026-08-051048.3920.4113.5 mm107.0 mm
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2026-08-071071.3940.0113.5 mm107.1 mm
2026-08-081084.4950.1113.5 mm107.1 mm
2026-08-091098.5960.6113.5 mm107.1 mm
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2026-08-131136.51003.0113.7 mm107.2 mm
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2026-09-021338.31210.3116.2 mm108.8 mm
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2026-09-041351.11230.8121.3 mm108.9 mm
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2026-09-081387.81272.2121.3 mm108.9 mm
2026-09-091401.61281.6121.4 mm109.0 mm
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2026-09-111430.01300.9121.4 mm109.0 mm
2026-09-121439.81310.9121.4 mm109.1 mm
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2026-09-141458.21329.4121.4 mm109.5 mm
2026-09-151467.81337.7121.4 mm109.8 mm
2026-09-161474.91346.1121.4 mm110.0 mm
2026-09-171482.81355.0121.6 mm110.1 mm
2026-09-181492.21364.3121.7 mm110.4 mm
2026-09-191502.11373.8121.7 mm110.6 mm
2026-09-201510.61383.5121.7 mm110.7 mm
2026-09-211518.51393.1121.7 mm111.2 mm
2026-09-221526.71401.9121.8 mm111.3 mm
2026-09-231536.81411.0121.8 mm111.3 mm
2026-09-241548.11420.6121.8 mm111.4 mm
2026-09-251558.41430.3121.8 mm111.7 mm
2026-09-261565.51440.0121.8 mm111.8 mm
2026-09-271573.31449.6121.8 mm111.9 mm
2026-09-281581.01458.9121.8 mm112.1 mm
2026-09-291592.61467.4121.8 mm112.1 mm
2026-09-301604.11475.8121.8 mm112.3 mm
2026-10-011614.01484.2121.8 mm112.7 mm

Forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Oct 10, 2026 at 00:00 UTC

10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record

GDD accumulation
57 GDDvs 71 GDD average
Total rainfall
0.0 mmvs 11.5 mm average

No unusually hot or wet period stands out in the short-range forecast.

Sat10/10 21°Cavg 26°C 9°Cavg 9°C +4 GDD 0.0 mm
Sun10/11 22°Cavg 25°C 8°Cavg 9°C +4 GDD 0.0 mm
Mon10/12 18°Cavg 26°C 8°Cavg 8°C +3 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue10/13 21°Cavg 27°C 8°Cavg 8°C +4 GDD 0.0 mm
Wed10/14 24°Cavg 27°C 9°Cavg 9°C +6 GDD 0.0 mm
Thu10/15 27°Cavg 26°C 11°Cavg 9°C +8 GDD 0.0 mm
Fri10/16 24°Cavg 26°C 12°Cavg 9°C +8 GDD 0.0 mm
Sat10/17 25°Cavg 25°C 11°Cavg 8°C +8 GDD 0.0 mm
Sun10/18 23°Cavg 25°C 10°Cavg 8°C +7 GDD 0.0 mm
Mon10/19 20°Cavg 24°C 10°Cavg 8°C +6 GDD 0.0 mm

Data and methods

Show data sources and model assumptions

Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.

Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.

This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.

Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed September 20, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.

The Sonoma & Mendocino model uses a April 1–October 31 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 32°C.