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United States · Multi-region weather view

Finger Lakes

Upstate New York vineyards around Canandaigua, Keuka, Seneca and Cayuga lakes, especially associated with Riesling.

Cold winters, spring frost and autumn rain shape the season. The lakes moderate nearby vineyards, but shoreline and cold-air drainage differences are finer than the model grid.

Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Oct 17, 2026.

Current conditions

Model estimate valid Nov 3, 2026 · 06:00 UTC

Regional model estimate averaged across the configured sampling locations.

Temperature13.9°C
Dew Point5.9°C
Relative Humidity59%
24h RainfallUnavailable

Vintage explorer

Compare this vintage · View 2003 across regions →

Moderately cooler and moderately wetter than normal.

Mean temperature14.4°C
Temperature anomaly-0.8°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days1279base 10°C
Hot days0≥ 32°C

What stood out in 2003

A freeze after budbreak can damage new growth and reduce the crop.

Spring freeze recorded · Moderate confidence

The regional record had 22 spring day(s) at or below -2°C.

A freeze after budbreak can damage new growth and reduce the crop.

How unusual was 2003?

The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.

Growing-season temperature

3rd coolest of 35 vintages Cooler than 31 of 34 other vintages 14.4°C

Growing-season rainfall

10th wettest of 35 vintages Wetter than 25 of 34 other vintages 762.4 mm

Heat accumulation

5th lowest of 35 vintages Lower than 30 of 34 other vintages 1280 GDD

Hot days

Fewest of 35 vintages Fewer than 22 of 34 other vintages 0 days

2003 month by month

Compared with 1991–2020

Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.

Frost watch Growing season Harvest window
  1. 1–31
    Frost watch

    Heat accumulation

    2003 0 GDD
    Typical 5 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 69.7 mm
    Typical 77.6 mm
    2003 freezing days
    20
    Typical
    23.2

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  2. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2003 25 GDD
    Typical 28 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 72.9 mm
    Typical 89.6 mm
    2003 freezing days
    16
    Typical
    8.2

    More freezing days than the typical month.

  3. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2003 87 GDD
    Typical 138 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 115.3 mm
    Typical 86.9 mm
    2003 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.3

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

  4. 1–30
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2003 228 GDD
    Typical 270 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 88.2 mm
    Typical 98.7 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  5. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2003 337 GDD
    Typical 359 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 147.5 mm
    Typical 100.2 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

  6. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2003 357 GDD
    Typical 334 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 98.9 mm
    Typical 91.7 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  7. 1–30
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2003 200 GDD
    Typical 208 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 120.1 mm
    Typical 94.4 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  8. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2003 36 GDD
    Typical 62 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 94.6 mm
    Typical 98.2 mm

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

  9. 1–15
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2003 10 GDD
    Typical 7 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 24.9 mm
    Typical 39.1 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

View milestone calendar data as a table
Month2003 GDDTypical GDD2003 rainfallTypical rainfall2003 freezing daysTypical freezing days
March 2003 0 GDD 5 GDD 69.7 mm 77.6 mm 2023.2
April 2003 25 GDD 28 GDD 72.9 mm 89.6 mm 168.2
May 2003 87 GDD 138 GDD 115.3 mm 86.9 mm 00.3
June 2003 228 GDD 270 GDD 88.2 mm 98.7 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
July 2003 337 GDD 359 GDD 147.5 mm 100.2 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
August 2003 357 GDD 334 GDD 98.9 mm 91.7 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
September 2003 200 GDD 208 GDD 120.1 mm 94.4 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
October 2003 36 GDD 62 GDD 94.6 mm 98.2 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
November 2003 10 GDD 7 GDD 24.9 mm 39.1 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
Calendar data and method

Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.

Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Oct 17, 2026.

Replay the 2003 growing season

229 daily regional observations

Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.

Replay data and method

Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Oct 17, 2026.

Closest weather matches

These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.

  1. Closest match

    2019

    Most alike in Harvest precipitation and Spring frost exposure.

    Harvest precipitation
    more rain: 5.4 mm
    Spring frost exposure
    fewer frost-exposure days: 3 days

    Largest difference: Growing-season mean temperature — warmer

    View 2019 →

  2. Second closest

    2000

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Growing-season mean temperature.

    Hot-day count
    the same: 0 days
    Growing-season mean temperature
    warmer: 0.1°C

    Largest difference: Spring frost exposure — fewer frost-exposure days

    View 2000 →

  3. Third closest

    2004

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Harvest precipitation.

    Hot-day count
    the same: 0 days
    Harvest precipitation
    less rain: 10.5 mm

    Largest difference: Spring frost exposure — fewer frost-exposure days

    View 2004 →
How similar years are calculated

Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.

Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Hot-day count (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%); Spring frost exposure (10%).

Calculated distances: 2019 0.562; 2000 0.677; 2004 0.680.

Growing-season temperature anomalyCompared with 1991-2020
Temperature anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2025 A line above zero indicates a warmer growing season than the 1991–2020 baseline. Select a point to inspect that vintage. +1.8°C −1.8°C 1991 2000 2010 2020 2025
Growing-season rainfall anomaly
Rainfall anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2025 Bars show millimeters above or below the 1991–2020 growing-season baseline. Select a bar to inspect that vintage. +260 mm −260 mm 1991 2000 2010 2020 2025
View historical chart data as a table
YearTemperature anomalyRainfall anomalyHot days
1991+0.8°C-146 mm8
1992-1.5°C+97 mm0
1993-0.4°C-33 mm4
1994+0.0°C+24 mm3
1995+0.2°C-80 mm5
1996-0.8°C+194 mm0
1997-1.4°C-86 mm0
1998+0.5°C-88 mm0
1999+0.4°C-158 mm4
2000-0.7°C+30 mm0
2001+0.2°C-191 mm4
2002+0.1°C-33 mm4
2003-0.8°C+64 mm0
2004-0.3°C+140 mm0
2005+0.9°C+37 mm4
2006-0.2°C+161 mm3
2007+0.3°C-131 mm5
2008-0.1°C-76 mm2
2009-0.7°C-39 mm0
2010+0.7°C-31 mm3
2011+0.7°C+208 mm3
2012+0.5°C-63 mm2
2013-0.1°C+31 mm2
2014-0.2°C-0 mm0
2015+0.5°C+3 mm0
2016+0.6°C-100 mm3
2017+0.4°C+136 mm0
2018+0.3°C+96 mm3
2019-0.3°C+125 mm1
2020+0.3°C-92 mm1
2021+0.9°C+255 mm2
2022+0.7°C-46 mm3
2023+0.2°C+12 mm0
2024+1.1°C-5 mm0
2025+0.4°C-36 mm3

winter

-5.3°C

-2.7°C vs baseline

219 mm rain · +21 mm

spring

6.6°C

-0.9°C vs baseline

257 mm rain · +4 mm

summer

20.0°C

-0.5°C vs baseline

334 mm rain · +44 mm

harvest

11.5°C

-0.7°C vs baseline

239 mm rain · +8 mm

Weather events

Periods that crossed one of the published regional thresholds, shown in date order.

  1. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -19.2°C
    Duration
    15 days
    Severe-freeze days
    15 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  2. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -3.0°C
    Duration
    1 day
    Severe-freeze days
    1 day

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  3. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -0.9°C
    Duration
    1 day
    Severe-freeze days
    0 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  4. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -0.1°C
    Duration
    1 day
    Severe-freeze days
    0 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  5. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -9.8°C
    Duration
    13 days
    Severe-freeze days
    6 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  6. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -0.8°C
    Duration
    2 days
    Severe-freeze days
    0 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  7. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -0.8°C
    Duration
    1 day
    Severe-freeze days
    0 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  8. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -1.0°C
    Duration
    2 days
    Severe-freeze days
    0 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  9. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    44.6 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    40.9 mm
    Trigger threshold
    30.3 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

  10. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    30.9 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    30.9 mm
    Trigger threshold
    30.3 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

  11. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    38.3 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    31.8 mm
    Trigger threshold
    30.3 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

How events are detected

Weather & Vines combined regional series; method event-timeline-v2-2026-07, rules finger-lakes-catalog-v1-2026-10. Source last updated Oct 17, 2026, calculated Oct 18, 2026. Each configured point must have at least 95.0% coverage.

1991–present

Climate change

Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.

Compare regions

Observed record

Historical trends, 1991–2025

Growing degree days changed +49.6 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +31.1 to +68.1 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.

How it is measured: Across the April 1–November 15 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.

Growing degree days · annual change from the 1991–2020 average1991–2025

Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.

View annual growing degree days data
VintageGrowing degree daysChange from 1991–2020
19911604 GDD+198 GDD
19921143 GDD-263 GDD
19931332 GDD-74 GDD
19941337 GDD-69 GDD
19951503 GDD+97 GDD
19961302 GDD-104 GDD
19971159 GDD-247 GDD
19981456 GDD+50 GDD
19991462 GDD+56 GDD
20001239 GDD-167 GDD
20011416 GDD+10 GDD
20021488 GDD+82 GDD
20031280 GDD-126 GDD
20041338 GDD-68 GDD
20051557 GDD+151 GDD
20061343 GDD-63 GDD
20071495 GDD+89 GDD
20081337 GDD-69 GDD
20091224 GDD-182 GDD
20101508 GDD+102 GDD
20111512 GDD+106 GDD
20121517 GDD+112 GDD
20131383 GDD-23 GDD
20141338 GDD-68 GDD
20151468 GDD+62 GDD
20161559 GDD+153 GDD
20171447 GDD+41 GDD
20181578 GDD+172 GDD
20191357 GDD-49 GDD
20201499 GDD+93 GDD
20211568 GDD+162 GDD
20221498 GDD+92 GDD
20231397 GDD-9 GDD
20241577 GDD+171 GDD
20251478 GDD+72 GDD
Growing-season mean temperature
+0.29 °C per decade 95% interval +0.18 to +0.39
Growing degree days
+49.60 GDD per decade 95% interval +31.10 to +68.10
Growing-season precipitation
+20.76 mm per decade 95% interval -4.48 to +46.00
Hot days
-0.52 days per decade 95% interval -1.03 to -0.01
Spring frost days
-0.90 days per decade 95% interval -2.77 to +0.98
Longest dry spell
+0.93 days per decade 95% interval +0.07 to +1.79

Last Updated October 17, 2026

Model ensemble

Projected climate through 2075

Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.

Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.

PeriodWeighted medianWeighted central 80%Models per pathway
2021-2040+1.1°C+0.7 to +1.6°C25
2041-2060+1.8°C+1.3 to +2.5°C25
2061-2075+2.5°C+1.7 to +3.2°C25
How pathways are combined

For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Compare projection measures across regions

Typical year · 1991–2020

When to visit

This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.

Deterministic IFS forecast

Next ten days

Detailed forecast outlook

Regional average across 4 sampling locations.

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · model run Nov 3, 2026 at 00:00 UTC · retrieved Nov 3, 2026 at 08:24 UTC

Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.

DateTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTueWedThu
High 20°C 21°C 21°C 18°C 12°C 11°C 9°C 16°C 8°C 5°C
Low 12°C 12°C 11°C 9°C 9°C 8°C 6°C 9°C 5°C 2°C
Rain 0.5 mm 0.9 mm 4.4 mm 0.0 mm 4.6 mm 0.5 mm 2.4 mm 0.2 mm 1.5 mm 0.1 mm

Across the typical year: Late July has the warmest median afternoon high (26.7°C); Late January has the coolest (-0.9°C). Wet days are most frequent in Late July (59%) and least frequent in Early February (41%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lowsMedians and middle 50% of daily readings

Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lows for Finger Lakes Median daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 24 early and late-month periods under the 1991–2020 baseline. Neutral bands show the 25th to 75th percentile. -15°C-5°C5°C15°C25°C JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
How often a day is wetShare of days with at least 1 mm of rain

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Wet-day frequency through the typical year for Finger Lakes The fraction of days receiving at least one millimeter of rain in each early and late-month period under the 1991–2020 baseline. 0%25%50%75%100% JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
View all 24 periods as a table

Scroll horizontally to view all columns.

Finger Lakes typical weather by half-month, 1991–2020
PeriodAfternoon high, median (middle 50%)Overnight low, median (middle 50%)Wet-day frequencyPeriod rain, median (middle 50%)
Jan 1–150.8°C (-3.5–4.6°C)-6.4°C (-10.8–-1.9°C)49%32.9 mm (23.2–48.8 mm)
Jan 16–31-0.9°C (-4.9–2.6°C)-9.1°C (-13.5–-4.4°C)42%27.9 mm (19.7–36.8 mm)
Feb 1–15-0.0°C (-3.3–3.1°C)-8.3°C (-12.3–-3.6°C)41%25.4 mm (18.9–34.9 mm)
Feb 16–291.8°C (-2.1–6.0°C)-5.9°C (-10.7–-2.1°C)44%27.8 mm (16.0–32.6 mm)
Mar 1–153.2°C (-0.1–7.7°C)-5.0°C (-9.1–-1.3°C)46%36.0 mm (24.4–54.1 mm)
Mar 16–316.0°C (2.8–10.8°C)-2.0°C (-5.8–0.9°C)46%35.3 mm (26.7–46.5 mm)
Apr 1–1510.2°C (6.6–14.4°C)0.7°C (-1.5–3.1°C)51%42.2 mm (32.3–57.5 mm)
Apr 16–3014.1°C (11.1–18.0°C)3.4°C (1.1–5.8°C)51%41.8 mm (30.2–62.3 mm)
May 1–1517.7°C (14.7–21.5°C)6.7°C (4.5–9.9°C)53%42.3 mm (27.0–55.7 mm)
May 16–3120.8°C (17.5–24.8°C)9.8°C (6.8–12.9°C)50%40.6 mm (25.1–53.3 mm)
Jun 1–1523.0°C (19.9–25.8°C)12.3°C (9.9–15.4°C)51%41.6 mm (30.2–58.3 mm)
Jun 16–3025.5°C (23.4–27.7°C)15.4°C (13.0–17.5°C)55%50.1 mm (34.9–65.7 mm)
Jul 1–1526.4°C (24.3–28.7°C)16.1°C (13.9–18.4°C)48%38.7 mm (32.1–49.9 mm)
Jul 16–3126.7°C (24.6–28.8°C)17.0°C (15.1–19.0°C)59%50.6 mm (37.6–69.7 mm)
Aug 1–1526.1°C (24.2–28.2°C)16.4°C (14.4–18.5°C)52%41.2 mm (28.7–63.5 mm)
Aug 16–3125.5°C (23.1–27.4°C)15.4°C (13.3–17.5°C)46%40.6 mm (30.4–54.8 mm)
Sep 1–1523.5°C (20.7–26.1°C)13.3°C (10.9–15.9°C)45%38.3 mm (25.8–56.3 mm)
Sep 16–3020.5°C (17.8–23.0°C)10.3°C (7.6–12.8°C)47%54.3 mm (31.4–63.6 mm)
Oct 1–1517.0°C (13.8–20.6°C)7.4°C (4.5–10.3°C)47%35.9 mm (22.9–53.2 mm)
Oct 16–3113.0°C (9.8–16.2°C)4.5°C (2.0–7.0°C)55%52.9 mm (39.6–81.6 mm)
Nov 1–159.7°C (5.8–14.0°C)1.5°C (-1.0–4.5°C)45%30.5 mm (22.1–45.5 mm)
Nov 16–306.5°C (3.0–10.7°C)-0.4°C (-2.8–2.3°C)46%39.1 mm (26.3–51.3 mm)
Dec 1–153.1°C (0.1–6.4°C)-2.6°C (-6.3–-0.0°C)48%35.4 mm (26.9–49.6 mm)
Dec 16–312.1°C (-1.9–4.8°C)-4.3°C (-8.0–-1.2°C)45%35.4 mm (23.5–46.5 mm)

Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.

Historical climatology Last Updated October 17, 2026

Season to date

Growing season heat and rainfall

Apr 1–Nov 2, 2026

Compare this season across regions →

Growing degree days1428.7base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall671.8 mmweighted regional total
Cumulative growing degree daysBase 10°C

2026 season1991–2020 average

Growing degree days accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily mean temperature above 10 degrees Celsius from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 1429 GDD 0 Apr ’26MayJunJulAugSepOctNov
Cumulative growing-season rainfallRegional weighted mean

2026 season1991–2020 average

Rainfall accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily rainfall in millimeters from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 672 mm 0 Apr ’26MayJunJulAugSepOctNov
View growing-season accumulation data
DateSeason GDD1991–2020 average GDDSeason rainfall1991–2020 average rainfall
2026-04-010.30.516.3 mm2.7 mm
2026-04-020.30.822.8 mm6.1 mm
2026-04-031.51.324.0 mm9.5 mm
2026-04-044.31.525.7 mm14.5 mm
2026-04-054.31.839.3 mm16.7 mm
2026-04-064.32.341.3 mm18.4 mm
2026-04-074.33.043.2 mm21.3 mm
2026-04-084.33.743.2 mm24.0 mm
2026-04-094.34.443.2 mm26.2 mm
2026-04-106.84.747.4 mm28.8 mm
2026-04-116.85.148.9 mm31.5 mm
2026-04-126.85.649.1 mm34.5 mm
2026-04-1311.46.350.2 mm38.1 mm
2026-04-1420.07.150.8 mm40.9 mm
2026-04-1527.48.257.7 mm43.5 mm
2026-04-1636.89.868.2 mm48.3 mm
2026-04-1742.811.072.5 mm52.0 mm
2026-04-1847.712.383.1 mm53.0 mm
2026-04-1947.713.997.2 mm55.3 mm
2026-04-2047.715.5100.0 mm58.8 mm
2026-04-2147.716.9100.7 mm62.9 mm
2026-04-2247.718.3101.2 mm67.1 mm
2026-04-2350.319.3101.2 mm71.8 mm
2026-04-2450.320.2101.4 mm73.9 mm
2026-04-2550.321.0119.8 mm76.3 mm
2026-04-2650.322.3126.1 mm80.1 mm
2026-04-2751.524.1126.2 mm83.0 mm
2026-04-2854.425.5129.4 mm85.6 mm
2026-04-2956.626.6143.8 mm87.1 mm
2026-04-3056.628.3153.3 mm89.6 mm
2026-05-0156.631.0156.0 mm93.5 mm
2026-05-0256.634.1157.6 mm96.8 mm
2026-05-0356.637.1157.9 mm100.0 mm
2026-05-0459.239.9158.3 mm102.1 mm
2026-05-0565.242.5164.5 mm103.9 mm
2026-05-0665.645.3183.5 mm106.3 mm
2026-05-0765.648.2187.0 mm108.4 mm
2026-05-0865.651.0188.3 mm111.2 mm
2026-05-0965.654.8192.0 mm113.3 mm
2026-05-1066.959.0195.4 mm116.8 mm
2026-05-1166.962.9196.1 mm121.2 mm
2026-05-1266.966.4196.1 mm125.5 mm
2026-05-1368.669.5203.3 mm128.5 mm
2026-05-1468.672.8206.8 mm132.2 mm
2026-05-1568.976.8207.6 mm134.9 mm
2026-05-1672.980.7209.5 mm138.8 mm
2026-05-1783.384.2210.8 mm140.8 mm
2026-05-1896.388.2210.9 mm143.8 mm
2026-05-19110.792.1211.0 mm146.8 mm
2026-05-20120.596.6211.4 mm148.2 mm
2026-05-21122.2101.2211.4 mm149.9 mm
2026-05-22122.4106.0211.5 mm152.3 mm
2026-05-23122.7111.5228.0 mm154.5 mm
2026-05-24123.6117.6250.5 mm157.3 mm
2026-05-25128.9123.9263.2 mm159.9 mm
2026-05-26136.1130.2263.3 mm162.5 mm
2026-05-27146.3136.8263.3 mm164.7 mm
2026-05-28152.3143.4263.5 mm166.8 mm
2026-05-29157.2150.5263.7 mm169.4 mm
2026-05-30160.9158.1264.2 mm172.5 mm
2026-05-31164.0166.0264.2 mm176.6 mm
2026-06-01168.2173.1264.2 mm181.9 mm
2026-06-02172.5179.9264.2 mm184.7 mm
2026-06-03179.2186.1264.2 mm187.9 mm
2026-06-04187.2191.7264.2 mm190.0 mm
2026-06-05197.0198.0264.2 mm193.0 mm
2026-06-06209.6205.0266.2 mm197.1 mm
2026-06-07218.9212.2267.6 mm199.7 mm
2026-06-08227.7220.3267.7 mm201.4 mm
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2026-06-10252.3238.0274.9 mm206.6 mm
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2026-06-17321.8301.0304.8 mm230.2 mm
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2026-06-20349.5330.2315.2 mm239.8 mm
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2026-07-12612.2570.4368.7 mm307.0 mm
2026-07-13625.4582.1368.9 mm310.0 mm
2026-07-14641.2594.0369.6 mm313.7 mm
2026-07-15656.4606.2370.1 mm318.0 mm
2026-07-16669.9618.2370.2 mm320.7 mm
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2026-07-21722.0679.9394.6 mm335.9 mm
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2026-07-25756.9726.2399.3 mm355.4 mm
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2026-07-27781.6749.3402.4 mm363.2 mm
2026-07-28794.2760.8414.8 mm367.0 mm
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2026-08-281127.71099.9505.3 mm456.8 mm
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2026-08-311153.21129.2514.1 mm467.2 mm
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2026-09-041202.51166.6587.1 mm477.2 mm
2026-09-051211.71175.4587.6 mm479.2 mm
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2026-09-261346.61319.3628.9 mm541.8 mm
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2026-10-011375.81340.6643.3 mm564.8 mm
2026-10-021383.01344.4646.4 mm567.3 mm
2026-10-031385.31348.2647.1 mm569.8 mm
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2026-10-051389.31355.0647.6 mm575.8 mm
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2026-10-071390.31361.3648.0 mm583.0 mm
2026-10-081394.31364.7648.9 mm586.1 mm
2026-10-091396.81368.4649.2 mm588.4 mm
2026-10-101398.41371.4649.2 mm590.1 mm
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2026-10-121404.71376.1656.6 mm593.4 mm
2026-10-131413.11378.4657.9 mm594.7 mm
2026-10-141421.11380.6658.5 mm598.3 mm
2026-10-151423.41382.4658.7 mm601.8 mm
2026-10-161426.61383.7668.7 mm606.4 mm
2026-10-171426.61384.9671.6 mm609.8 mm
2026-10-181426.61386.5671.7 mm612.1 mm
2026-10-191426.71388.1671.7 mm616.6 mm
2026-10-201427.41389.1671.7 mm621.0 mm
2026-10-211427.41390.2671.7 mm627.6 mm
2026-10-221427.41391.3671.7 mm631.1 mm
2026-10-231427.41392.3671.7 mm633.6 mm
2026-10-241427.41393.6671.7 mm636.2 mm
2026-10-251427.41394.8671.7 mm639.1 mm
2026-10-261428.71395.9671.7 mm642.2 mm
2026-10-271428.71396.9671.8 mm645.7 mm

Forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Nov 3, 2026 at 00:00 UTC

Regional average across 4 sampling locations. Daily highs and lows are averages of the locations’ daily highs and lows.

10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record

GDD accumulation
22 GDDvs 5 GDD average
Total rainfall
15.1 mmvs 22.3 mm average

No unusually hot or wet period stands out in the short-range forecast.

Tue11/3 20°Cavg 11°C 12°Cavg 3°C +6 GDD 0.5 mm
Wed11/4 21°Cavg 10°C 12°Cavg 2°C +6 GDD 0.9 mm
Thu11/5 21°Cavg 11°C 11°Cavg 3°C +6 GDD 4.4 mm
Fri11/6 18°Cavg 11°C 9°Cavg 3°C +3 GDD 0.0 mm
Sat11/7 12°Cavg 10°C 9°Cavg 2°C +0 GDD 4.6 mm
Sun11/8 11°Cavg 10°C 8°Cavg 1°C +0 GDD 0.5 mm
Mon11/9 9°Cavg 10°C 6°Cavg 1°C +0 GDD 2.4 mm
Tue11/10 16°Cavg 10°C 9°Cavg 2°C +2 GDD 0.2 mm
Wed11/11 8°Cavg 9°C 5°Cavg 2°C +0 GDD 1.5 mm
Thu11/12 5°Cavg 9°C 2°Cavg 0°C +0 GDD 0.1 mm

Data and methods

Show data sources and model assumptions

Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.

Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.

This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.

Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed November 2, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.

The Finger Lakes model uses a April 1–November 15 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 32°C.

The historical series uses 4 ERA5 locations, 10 temperature stations, and 18 rain stations. Interpretation confidence: high. Rules: finger-lakes-catalog-v1-2026-10.