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New Zealand · Multi-region weather view

Marlborough

Vineyards across the Wairau plain and the cooler, windier lower Awatere Valley.

Strong sunshine and low seasonal rainfall are tempered by cool nights and coastal air. Spring frost, wind, heat accumulation and rain near harvest can separate the Wairau and Awatere parts of the region.

Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Sep 13, 2026.

Current conditions

Observations through Sep 21, 2026 · 03:00 UTC

Temperature19.1°C
Dew Point8.4°C
Relative Humidity50%
24h Rainfall0.1 mmmodeled IFS total through Sep 20

Vintage explorer

Compare this vintage · View 2010 across regions →

Moderately warmer and slightly drier than normal.

Mean temperature13.7°C
Temperature anomaly+0.3°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days966base 10°C
Hot days0≥ 32°C

What stood out in 2010

No single weather pattern stands out in the regional record.

Close to the usual range · Low confidence

Temperature, rainfall, heat, and frost all stayed within the site's published thresholds.

No single weather pattern stands out in the regional record.

How unusual was 2010?

The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.

Growing-season temperature

17th warmest of 35 vintages Warmer than 18 of 34 other vintages 13.7°C

Growing-season rainfall

18th wettest of 35 vintages Wetter than 17 of 34 other vintages 618.5 mm

Heat accumulation

12th highest of 35 vintages Higher than 23 of 34 other vintages 967 GDD

Hot days

Most of 35 vintages More than 0 of 34 other vintages 0 days

2010 month by month

Compared with 1991–2020

Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.

Frost watch Growing season Harvest window
  1. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2010 20 GDD
    Typical 16 GDD

    Rainfall

    2010 114.7 mm
    Typical 84.6 mm
    2010 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.1

    Wetter than the typical month.

  2. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2010 33 GDD
    Typical 48 GDD

    Rainfall

    2010 48.7 mm
    Typical 96.1 mm
    2010 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.0

    Drier than the typical month.

  3. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2010 123 GDD
    Typical 85 GDD

    Rainfall

    2010 46.7 mm
    Typical 85.0 mm
    2010 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.0

    Heat accumulation ran ahead of the typical month.

  4. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2010 184 GDD
    Typical 150 GDD

    Rainfall

    2010 117.2 mm
    Typical 87.1 mm

    Heat accumulation ran ahead of the typical month.

  5. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2010 198 GDD
    Typical 198 GDD

    Rainfall

    2010 84.1 mm
    Typical 69.7 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  6. 1–28
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2010 200 GDD
    Typical 179 GDD

    Rainfall

    2010 34.5 mm
    Typical 60.3 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

  7. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2010 150 GDD
    Typical 148 GDD

    Rainfall

    2010 61.5 mm
    Typical 63.0 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  8. 1–30
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2010 59 GDD
    Typical 74 GDD

    Rainfall

    2010 111.0 mm
    Typical 75.3 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

View milestone calendar data as a table
Month2010 GDDTypical GDD2010 rainfallTypical rainfall2010 freezing daysTypical freezing days
September 2010 20 GDD 16 GDD 114.7 mm 84.6 mm 00.1
October 2010 33 GDD 48 GDD 48.7 mm 96.1 mm 00.0
November 2010 123 GDD 85 GDD 46.7 mm 85.0 mm 00.0
December 2010 184 GDD 150 GDD 117.2 mm 87.1 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
January 2011 198 GDD 198 GDD 84.1 mm 69.7 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
February 2011 200 GDD 179 GDD 34.5 mm 60.3 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
March 2011 150 GDD 148 GDD 61.5 mm 63.0 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
April 2011 59 GDD 74 GDD 111.0 mm 75.3 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
Calendar data and method

Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.

Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Sep 13, 2026.

Replay the 2010 growing season

242 daily regional observations

Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.

Replay data and method

Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Sep 12, 2026.

The daily weather replay is complete, but the separate weather-event scan is not currently available for this vintage.

Closest weather matches

These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.

  1. Closest match

    2012

    Most alike in Spring frost exposure and Growing-season precipitation.

    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days
    Growing-season precipitation
    less rain: 8.1 mm

    Largest difference: Growing degree days — lower

    View 2012 →

  2. Second closest

    1998

    Most alike in Spring frost exposure and Growing degree days.

    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days
    Growing degree days
    higher: 16 GDD

    Largest difference: Growing-season mean temperature — warmer

    View 1998 →

  3. Third closest

    2022

    Most alike in Spring frost exposure and Growing degree days.

    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days
    Growing degree days
    higher: 15 GDD

    Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — more rain

    View 2022 →
How similar years are calculated

Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.

Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%); Spring frost exposure (10%). Measures omitted because they did not vary: Hot-day count.

Calculated distances: 2012 0.181; 1998 0.244; 2022 0.393.

Growing-season temperature anomalyCompared with 1991-2020
Temperature anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 A line above zero indicates a warmer growing season than the 1991–2020 baseline. Select a point to inspect that vintage. +4.0°C −4.0°C 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
Growing-season rainfall anomaly
Rainfall anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 Bars show millimeters above or below the 1991–2020 growing-season baseline. Select a bar to inspect that vintage. +590 mm −590 mm 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
View historical chart data as a table
YearTemperature anomalyRainfall anomalyHot days
1991-0.9°C-66 mm0
1992-1.3°C+184 mm0
1993-0.7°C-40 mm0
1994-0.5°C+195 mm0
1995-0.1°C+79 mm0
1996-0.7°C+93 mm0
1997+0.6°C-196 mm0
1998+0.4°C+14 mm0
1999-0.1°C+39 mm0
2000+0.0°C-229 mm0
2001+0.3°C+16 mm0
2002-0.1°C-183 mm0
2003-0.2°C+73 mm0
2004-0.3°C+52 mm0
2005+0.3°C-118 mm0
2006-0.0°C-53 mm0
2007+0.4°C-60 mm0
2008+0.0°C+45 mm0
2009-0.0°C-135 mm0
2010+0.3°C-3 mm0
2011-0.7°C+139 mm0
2012+0.1°C-11 mm0
2013+0.3°C+173 mm0
2014+0.2°C-148 mm0
2015+0.4°C-100 mm0
2016+0.2°C+237 mm0
2017+0.9°C+149 mm0
2018+0.7°C-45 mm0
2019+0.3°C-56 mm0
2020+0.3°C-45 mm0
2021+0.7°C+136 mm0
2022+0.4°C+51 mm0
2023+0.5°C-169 mm0
2024+0.6°C-31 mm0
2025+0.5°C+123 mm0
2026-3.7°C-582 mm0

winter

7.5°C

+0.1°C vs baseline

356 mm rain · +98 mm

spring

11.3°C

+0.3°C vs baseline

210 mm rain · -56 mm

summer

16.5°C

+0.6°C vs baseline

235 mm rain · +19 mm

harvest

13.7°C

-0.3°C vs baseline

191 mm rain · +17 mm

Weather events

1991–present

Climate change

Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.

Compare regions

Observed record

Historical trends, 1991–2025

Growing degree days changed +70.1 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +37.0 to +103.3 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.

How it is measured: Across the September 1–April 30 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.

Growing degree days · annual change from the 1991–2020 average1991–2025

Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.

View annual growing degree days data
VintageGrowing degree daysChange from 1991–2020
1991682 GDD-217 GDD
1992638 GDD-261 GDD
1993774 GDD-125 GDD
1994816 GDD-83 GDD
1995864 GDD-35 GDD
1996726 GDD-173 GDD
19971067 GDD+168 GDD
1998983 GDD+84 GDD
1999853 GDD-46 GDD
2000905 GDD+6 GDD
2001942 GDD+43 GDD
2002860 GDD-39 GDD
2003870 GDD-29 GDD
2004846 GDD-53 GDD
2005954 GDD+55 GDD
2006872 GDD-27 GDD
2007990 GDD+91 GDD
2008892 GDD-7 GDD
2009906 GDD+7 GDD
2010967 GDD+67 GDD
2011739 GDD-160 GDD
2012932 GDD+33 GDD
2013952 GDD+53 GDD
2014943 GDD+44 GDD
20151004 GDD+105 GDD
2016926 GDD+27 GDD
20171103 GDD+204 GDD
20181053 GDD+154 GDD
2019958 GDD+58 GDD
2020957 GDD+58 GDD
20211047 GDD+148 GDD
2022982 GDD+82 GDD
2023987 GDD+88 GDD
20241018 GDD+119 GDD
2025989 GDD+90 GDD
Growing-season mean temperature
+0.33 °C per decade 95% interval +0.18 to +0.49
Growing degree days
+70.14 GDD per decade 95% interval +37.02 to +103.26
Growing-season precipitation
+2.81 mm per decade 95% interval -29.53 to +35.15
Hot days
No variation recorded
Spring frost days
-0.01 days per decade 95% interval -0.09 to +0.08
Longest dry spell
-0.55 days per decade 95% interval -1.76 to +0.66

Last Updated September 13, 2026

Model ensemble

Projected climate through 2075

Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.

Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.

PeriodWeighted medianWeighted central 80%Models per pathway
2021-2040+0.5°C+0.3 to +0.8°C25
2041-2060+1.0°C+0.6 to +1.5°C25
2061-2075+1.3°C+0.9 to +2.0°C25
How pathways are combined

For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Compare projection measures across regions

Typical year · 1991–2020

When to visit

This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.

Deterministic IFS forecast

Next ten days

Detailed forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · model run Sep 20, 2026 at 00:00 UTC · retrieved Sep 21, 2026 at 03:22 UTC

Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.

DateMonTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTueWed
High 19°C 10°C 10°C 13°C 14°C 14°C 11°C 11°C 13°C 18°C
Low 4°C 8°C 4°C 2°C 4°C 4°C 9°C 4°C 3°C 6°C
Rain 0.0 mm 3.5 mm 0.8 mm 0.0 mm 1.3 mm 0.0 mm 1.4 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm

Across the typical year: Late January has the warmest median afternoon high (20.9°C); Early July has the coolest (10.0°C). Wet days are most frequent in Early October (46%) and least frequent in Early March (26%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lowsMedians and middle 50% of daily readings

Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lows for Marlborough Median daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 24 early and late-month periods under the 1991–2020 baseline. Neutral bands show the 25th to 75th percentile. 0°C5°C10°C15°C20°C25°C JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
How often a day is wetShare of days with at least 1 mm of rain

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Wet-day frequency through the typical year for Marlborough The fraction of days receiving at least one millimeter of rain in each early and late-month period under the 1991–2020 baseline. 0%25%50%75%100% JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
View all 24 periods as a table

Scroll horizontally to view all columns.

Marlborough typical weather by half-month, 1991–2020
PeriodAfternoon high, median (middle 50%)Overnight low, median (middle 50%)Wet-day frequencyPeriod rain, median (middle 50%)
Jan 1–1520.3°C (18.1–22.4°C)12.0°C (10.3–13.8°C)37%31.8 mm (21.1–51.4 mm)
Jan 16–3120.9°C (18.8–22.8°C)12.5°C (10.7–14.1°C)28%30.8 mm (16.2–46.3 mm)
Feb 1–1520.6°C (18.4–22.8°C)12.3°C (10.7–14.1°C)28%20.7 mm (13.7–35.5 mm)
Feb 16–2920.6°C (18.3–22.5°C)12.1°C (10.6–13.7°C)29%22.5 mm (12.7–48.5 mm)
Mar 1–1519.3°C (17.2–21.3°C)11.0°C (9.3–12.4°C)26%33.7 mm (13.6–45.5 mm)
Mar 16–3118.6°C (16.7–20.3°C)10.6°C (8.8–12.1°C)27%25.6 mm (14.4–38.8 mm)
Apr 1–1516.9°C (15.0–18.6°C)8.7°C (6.9–10.4°C)33%36.1 mm (19.6–46.5 mm)
Apr 16–3015.8°C (14.1–17.4°C)7.9°C (6.4–9.7°C)32%28.6 mm (11.9–48.3 mm)
May 1–1514.7°C (13.3–16.0°C)6.9°C (5.3–8.9°C)30%28.5 mm (20.5–38.2 mm)
May 16–3112.9°C (11.5–14.3°C)5.5°C (3.8–7.4°C)32%32.9 mm (25.5–55.3 mm)
Jun 1–1511.5°C (10.2–12.8°C)4.2°C (2.1–6.8°C)34%43.5 mm (18.5–63.6 mm)
Jun 16–3010.6°C (9.2–11.9°C)3.3°C (1.3–5.6°C)38%43.6 mm (25.4–54.7 mm)
Jul 1–1510.0°C (8.7–11.3°C)2.8°C (1.2–4.4°C)36%37.5 mm (18.0–51.4 mm)
Jul 16–3110.7°C (9.6–12.0°C)3.5°C (1.8–5.4°C)36%35.9 mm (21.0–54.3 mm)
Aug 1–1511.3°C (9.9–12.3°C)3.9°C (2.0–5.8°C)40%37.2 mm (32.0–52.7 mm)
Aug 16–3111.8°C (10.4–13.1°C)4.0°C (2.4–5.7°C)37%33.2 mm (23.9–52.1 mm)
Sep 1–1512.8°C (11.3–14.4°C)5.1°C (3.4–6.7°C)40%33.6 mm (26.0–54.6 mm)
Sep 16–3013.6°C (11.8–15.4°C)5.7°C (4.1–7.3°C)41%39.1 mm (23.5–62.5 mm)
Oct 1–1514.5°C (12.8–16.3°C)6.8°C (4.8–8.2°C)46%52.8 mm (26.5–83.3 mm)
Oct 16–3115.9°C (13.9–17.4°C)7.7°C (6.0–9.2°C)38%31.4 mm (24.8–46.5 mm)
Nov 1–1516.4°C (14.1–18.4°C)8.3°C (6.5–10.0°C)38%33.6 mm (19.9–52.5 mm)
Nov 16–3017.2°C (15.1–19.2°C)8.9°C (7.4–10.7°C)40%37.0 mm (24.1–62.9 mm)
Dec 1–1518.4°C (16.3–20.2°C)10.6°C (8.9–12.5°C)41%35.5 mm (22.9–49.7 mm)
Dec 16–3119.3°C (17.2–21.2°C)11.2°C (9.5–13.0°C)40%41.4 mm (30.5–60.6 mm)

Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.

Historical climatology Last Updated September 12, 2026

Season to date

Growing season heat and rainfall

Sep 1–Sep 20, 2026

Compare this season across regions →

Growing degree days10.5base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall39.5 mmweighted regional total
Cumulative growing degree daysBase 10°C

2026 season1991–2020 average

Growing degree days accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily mean temperature above 10 degrees Celsius from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 10 GDD 0 Sep ’26
Cumulative growing-season rainfallRegional weighted mean

2026 season1991–2020 average

Rainfall accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily rainfall in millimeters from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 40 mm 0 Sep ’26
View growing-season accumulation data
DateSeason GDD1991–2020 average GDDSeason rainfall1991–2020 average rainfall
2026-09-010.00.10.2 mm2.6 mm
2026-09-021.70.50.2 mm4.9 mm
2026-09-035.50.70.2 mm8.0 mm
2026-09-047.50.92.3 mm12.3 mm
2026-09-058.21.32.5 mm15.4 mm
2026-09-0610.02.011.8 mm18.6 mm
2026-09-0710.02.330.1 mm20.0 mm
2026-09-0810.02.530.2 mm22.1 mm
2026-09-0910.02.730.2 mm23.7 mm
2026-09-1010.02.839.1 mm25.8 mm
2026-09-1110.03.139.1 mm28.5 mm
2026-09-1210.03.539.3 mm30.5 mm
2026-09-1310.53.939.5 mm34.6 mm

Forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Sep 20, 2026 at 00:00 UTC

10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record

GDD accumulation
1 GDDvs 7 GDD average
Total rainfall
7.1 mmvs 31.4 mm average

No unusually hot or wet period stands out in the short-range forecast.

Mon9/21 19°Cavg 13°C 4°Cavg 5°C +1 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/22 10°Cavg 14°C 8°Cavg 5°C +0 GDD 3.5 mm
Wed9/23 10°Cavg 14°C 4°Cavg 6°C +0 GDD 0.8 mm
Thu9/24 13°Cavg 14°C 2°Cavg 6°C +0 GDD 0.0 mm
Fri9/25 14°Cavg 13°C 4°Cavg 6°C +0 GDD 1.3 mm
Sat9/26 14°Cavg 14°C 4°Cavg 6°C +0 GDD 0.0 mm
Sun9/27 11°Cavg 13°C 9°Cavg 6°C +0 GDD 1.4 mm
Mon9/28 11°Cavg 13°C 4°Cavg 6°C +0 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/29 13°Cavg 14°C 3°Cavg 6°C +0 GDD 0.0 mm
Wed9/30 18°Cavg 14°C 6°Cavg 6°C +0 GDD 0.0 mm

Data and methods

Show data sources and model assumptions

Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.

Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.

This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.

Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed September 20, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.

The Marlborough model uses a September 1–April 30 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 32°C.