Australia · Multi-region weather view
McLaren Vale
Sign in to followMediterranean vineyards south of Adelaide near Gulf St Vincent.
Sea breezes and elevation temper a warm, dry summer growing season.
Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Aug 20, 2026.
Current conditions
Observations through Aug 30, 2026 · 06:00 UTC
Temperature15.9°C
Dew Point11.6°C
Relative Humidity76%
24h Rainfall0.0 mmmodeled IFS total through Aug 29
Vintage explorer
Mean temperature17.7°C
Temperature anomaly+0.4°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days1868base 10°C
Hot days10≥ 35°C
What stood out in 2013
No single weather pattern stands out in the regional record.
Close to the usual range · Low confidence
Temperature, rainfall, heat, and frost all stayed within the site's published thresholds.
No single weather pattern stands out in the regional record.
How unusual was 2013?
The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.
Growing-season temperature
10th warmest of 35 vintages Warmer than 25 of 34 other vintages 17.7°CGrowing-season rainfall
18th wettest of 35 vintages Wetter than 17 of 34 other vintages 286.1 mmHeat accumulation
10th highest of 35 vintages Higher than 25 of 34 other vintages 1868 GDDHot days
Most of 35 vintages More than every other vintage 10 days2013 month by month
Compared with 1991–2020
Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.
Frost watch
Growing season
Harvest window
-
1–30 Frost watchGrowing seasonHeat accumulation
2013 149 GDDTypical 82 GDDRainfall
2013 69.6 mmTypical 73.9 mm- 2013 freezing days
- 0
- Typical
- 0.0
Heat accumulation ran ahead of the typical month.
-
1–31 Frost watchGrowing seasonHeat accumulation
2013 145 GDDTypical 144 GDDRainfall
2013 31.8 mmTypical 48.4 mm- 2013 freezing days
- 0
- Typical
- 0.0
Close to the typical monthly pattern.
-
1–30 Frost watchGrowing seasonHeat accumulation
2013 177 GDDTypical 208 GDDRainfall
2013 20.0 mmTypical 35.0 mm- 2013 freezing days
- 0
- Typical
- 0.0
Drier than the typical month.
-
1–31 Growing seasonHeat accumulation
2013 271 GDDTypical 268 GDDRainfall
2013 22.2 mmTypical 32.3 mmClose to the typical monthly pattern.
-
1–31 Growing seasonHeat accumulation
2013 358 GDDTypical 324 GDDRainfall
2013 18.8 mmTypical 23.1 mmClose to the typical monthly pattern.
-
1–28 Growing seasonHarvest windowHeat accumulation
2013 299 GDDTypical 296 GDDRainfall
2013 56.9 mmTypical 24.1 mmWetter than the typical month.
-
1–31 Growing seasonHarvest windowHeat accumulation
2013 273 GDDTypical 270 GDDRainfall
2013 20.7 mmTypical 26.2 mmClose to the typical monthly pattern.
-
1–30 Growing seasonHarvest windowHeat accumulation
2013 197 GDDTypical 187 GDDRainfall
2013 46.0 mmTypical 45.0 mmClose to the typical monthly pattern.
View milestone calendar data as a table
| Month | 2013 GDD | Typical GDD | 2013 rainfall | Typical rainfall | 2013 freezing days | Typical freezing days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2013 | 149 GDD | 82 GDD | 69.6 mm | 73.9 mm | 0 | 0.0 |
| October 2013 | 145 GDD | 144 GDD | 31.8 mm | 48.4 mm | 0 | 0.0 |
| November 2013 | 177 GDD | 208 GDD | 20.0 mm | 35.0 mm | 0 | 0.0 |
| December 2013 | 271 GDD | 268 GDD | 22.2 mm | 32.3 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
| January 2014 | 358 GDD | 324 GDD | 18.8 mm | 23.1 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
| February 2014 | 299 GDD | 296 GDD | 56.9 mm | 24.1 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
| March 2014 | 273 GDD | 270 GDD | 20.7 mm | 26.2 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
| April 2014 | 197 GDD | 187 GDD | 46.0 mm | 45.0 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
Calendar data and method
Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.
Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.
Replay the 2013 growing season
242 daily regional observations
Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.
Mean temperature
Daily rainfall
Season GDD
Season rainfall
No detected event on this date.
Replay data and method
Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.
Closest weather matches
These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.
Closest match
2008
Most alike in Growing degree days and Growing-season mean temperature.
- Growing degree days
- lower: 57 GDD
- Growing-season mean temperature
- cooler: 0.2°C
Largest difference: Hot-day count — fewer hot days
View 2008 →Second closest
2019
Most alike in Growing-season precipitation and Harvest precipitation.
- Growing-season precipitation
- more rain: 3.3 mm
- Harvest precipitation
- more rain: 6.8 mm
Largest difference: Hot-day count — fewer hot days
View 2019 →Third closest
2025
Most alike in Growing-season precipitation and Growing degree days.
- Growing-season precipitation
- more rain: 8.1 mm
- Growing degree days
- lower: 63 GDD
Largest difference: Hot-day count — fewer hot days
View 2025 →
How similar years are calculated
Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.
Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Hot-day count (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%). Measures omitted because they did not vary: Spring frost exposure.
Calculated distances: 2008 0.776; 2019 0.795; 2025 1.008.
View historical chart data as a table
| Year | Temperature anomaly | Rainfall anomaly | Hot days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | -0.6°C | +42 mm | 0 |
| 1992 | -0.6°C | +236 mm | 2 |
| 1993 | -0.5°C | +28 mm | 2 |
| 1994 | -0.5°C | -28 mm | 0 |
| 1995 | -0.9°C | -77 mm | 1 |
| 1996 | -0.5°C | -40 mm | 0 |
| 1997 | -0.5°C | +65 mm | 0 |
| 1998 | -0.2°C | -46 mm | 2 |
| 1999 | +0.2°C | +98 mm | 2 |
| 2000 | +0.7°C | +9 mm | 3 |
| 2001 | -1.1°C | +33 mm | 0 |
| 2002 | -0.3°C | -10 mm | 2 |
| 2003 | -0.5°C | -38 mm | 1 |
| 2004 | -0.1°C | -59 mm | 0 |
| 2005 | +0.0°C | +184 mm | 3 |
| 2006 | +0.7°C | -44 mm | 2 |
| 2007 | +0.5°C | -62 mm | 2 |
| 2008 | +0.1°C | -103 mm | 7 |
| 2009 | +0.9°C | +25 mm | 3 |
| 2010 | -0.5°C | +102 mm | 2 |
| 2011 | +0.3°C | -4 mm | 1 |
| 2012 | +0.5°C | -99 mm | 3 |
| 2013 | +0.4°C | -22 mm | 10 |
| 2014 | +0.0°C | -72 mm | 1 |
| 2015 | +1.0°C | -102 mm | 2 |
| 2016 | -0.1°C | +213 mm | 1 |
| 2017 | +1.1°C | -72 mm | 4 |
| 2018 | +0.5°C | -120 mm | 3 |
| 2019 | -0.1°C | -19 mm | 7 |
| 2020 | -0.1°C | -20 mm | 1 |
| 2021 | -0.1°C | -49 mm | 0 |
| 2022 | -0.5°C | +126 mm | 0 |
| 2023 | -0.1°C | -44 mm | 0 |
| 2024 | +1.2°C | -167 mm | 1 |
| 2025 | +0.1°C | -14 mm | 5 |
| 2026 | +0.0°C | +0 mm | 0 |
winter
11.8°C
+0.6°C vs baseline
386 mm rain · +101 mm
spring
15.2°C
+0.4°C vs baseline
121 mm rain · -36 mm
summer
20.3°C
+0.5°C vs baseline
97 mm rain · +18 mm
harvest
18.6°C
+0.2°C vs baseline
123 mm rain · +28 mm
Weather events
Periods that crossed one of the published regional thresholds, shown in date order.
Heat episode
- Peak temperature
- 36.9°C
- Duration
- 4 days
- Heat accumulation
- 80 GDD
Dry spell
- Duration
- 25 days
- Total rain
- 0.5 mm
- Daily cutoff
- 1.0 mm/day
Heat episode
- Peak temperature
- 37.8°C
- Duration
- 2 days
- Heat accumulation
- 38 GDD
Concentrated harvest rain
- Total rain
- 46.2 mm
- Highest 3-day total
- 45.6 mm
- Trigger threshold
- 20.0 mm
A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.
Dry spell
- Duration
- 19 days
- Total rain
- 2.2 mm
- Daily cutoff
- 1.0 mm/day
Dry spell
- Duration
- 14 days
- Total rain
- 1.8 mm
- Daily cutoff
- 1.0 mm/day
Concentrated harvest rain
- Total rain
- 30.2 mm
- Highest 3-day total
- 30.1 mm
- Trigger threshold
- 20.0 mm
A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.
How events are detected
Weather & Vines combined regional series; method event-timeline-v2-2026-07, rules mclaren-vale-catalog-v2-2026-07. Source last updated Aug 1, 2026, calculated Aug 29, 2026. Each configured point must have at least 95.0% coverage.
1991–present
Climate change
Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.
Observed record
Historical trends, 1991–2025
Growing degree days changed +64.7 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +22.8 to +106.5 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.
Weighted median: 70% SSP2-4.5 · 15% SSP1-2.6 · 15% SSP3-7.0
Shaded central 80% model range using the same weights.
How it is measured: Across the September 1–April 30 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.
Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.
View annual growing degree days data
| Vintage | Growing degree days | Change from 1991–2020 |
|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 1640 GDD | -138 GDD |
| 1992 | 1640 GDD | -138 GDD |
| 1993 | 1653 GDD | -125 GDD |
| 1994 | 1659 GDD | -119 GDD |
| 1995 | 1569 GDD | -209 GDD |
| 1996 | 1657 GDD | -121 GDD |
| 1997 | 1665 GDD | -113 GDD |
| 1998 | 1728 GDD | -50 GDD |
| 1999 | 1843 GDD | +65 GDD |
| 2000 | 1931 GDD | +153 GDD |
| 2001 | 1504 GDD | -274 GDD |
| 2002 | 1695 GDD | -83 GDD |
| 2003 | 1672 GDD | -106 GDD |
| 2004 | 1749 GDD | -29 GDD |
| 2005 | 1782 GDD | +4 GDD |
| 2006 | 1947 GDD | +169 GDD |
| 2007 | 1893 GDD | +115 GDD |
| 2008 | 1811 GDD | +33 GDD |
| 2009 | 1990 GDD | +212 GDD |
| 2010 | 1659 GDD | -119 GDD |
| 2011 | 1866 GDD | +88 GDD |
| 2012 | 1894 GDD | +116 GDD |
| 2013 | 1868 GDD | +90 GDD |
| 2014 | 1785 GDD | +8 GDD |
| 2015 | 2027 GDD | +249 GDD |
| 2016 | 1762 GDD | -16 GDD |
| 2017 | 2037 GDD | +259 GDD |
| 2018 | 1909 GDD | +131 GDD |
| 2019 | 1751 GDD | -27 GDD |
| 2020 | 1754 GDD | -23 GDD |
| 2021 | 1748 GDD | -30 GDD |
| 2022 | 1652 GDD | -125 GDD |
| 2023 | 1755 GDD | -23 GDD |
| 2024 | 2055 GDD | +277 GDD |
| 2025 | 1805 GDD | +27 GDD |
- Growing-season mean temperature
- +0.27 °C per decade 95% interval +0.09 to +0.44
- Growing degree days
- +64.65 GDD per decade 95% interval +22.81 to +106.50
- Growing-season precipitation
- -24.82 mm per decade 95% interval -48.10 to -1.54
- Hot days
- +0.52 days per decade 95% interval -0.20 to +1.24
- Spring frost days
- No variation recorded
- Longest dry spell
- +3.33 days per decade 95% interval -1.58 to +8.24
Last Updated August 20, 2026
Model ensemble
Projected climate through 2075
Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.
Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.
| Period | Weighted median | Weighted central 80% | Models per pathway |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-2040 | +0.5°C | +0.3 to +0.8°C | 25 |
| 2041-2060 | +1.0°C | +0.7 to +1.4°C | 25 |
| 2061-2075 | +1.4°C | +1.0 to +1.9°C | 25 |
How pathways are combined
For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.
Last Updated June 29, 2025
Typical year · 1991–2020
When to visit
This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.
Deterministic IFS forecast
Next ten days
Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.
| Date | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | 16°C | 16°C | 18°C | 13°C | 15°C | 19°C | 15°C | 13°C | 13°C | 14°C |
| Low | 8°C | 7°C | 12°C | 11°C | 12°C | 11°C | 10°C | 9°C | 8°C | 8°C |
| Rain | 0.0 mm | 0.0 mm | 4.7 mm | 1.3 mm | 6.6 mm | 6.9 mm | 4.1 mm | 0.0 mm | 0.0 mm | 0.0 mm |
Across the typical year: Early February has the warmest median afternoon high (25.4°C); Early July has the coolest (13.3°C). Wet days are most frequent in Early July (58%) and least frequent in Early March (11%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.
Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%
Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.
Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.
View all 24 periods as a table
Scroll horizontally to view all columns.
| Period | Afternoon high, median (middle 50%) | Overnight low, median (middle 50%) | Wet-day frequency | Period rain, median (middle 50%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1–15 | 24.6°C (21.6–29.4°C) | 14.7°C (13.2–17.0°C) | 13% | 10.5 mm (4.6–14.6 mm) |
| Jan 16–31 | 25.0°C (21.9–28.5°C) | 15.0°C (13.7–16.8°C) | 13% | 8.1 mm (3.1–15.5 mm) |
| Feb 1–15 | 25.4°C (21.7–28.9°C) | 14.9°C (13.4–17.1°C) | 15% | 9.8 mm (2.2–19.1 mm) |
| Feb 16–29 | 24.5°C (21.6–28.8°C) | 14.9°C (13.5–17.4°C) | 12% | 4.8 mm (1.5–8.2 mm) |
| Mar 1–15 | 23.2°C (20.8–27.4°C) | 14.3°C (12.6–16.2°C) | 11% | 4.2 mm (1.1–11.8 mm) |
| Mar 16–31 | 21.6°C (19.1–24.7°C) | 13.2°C (11.8–15.2°C) | 21% | 13.0 mm (9.1–20.9 mm) |
| Apr 1–15 | 20.1°C (18.2–23.2°C) | 12.5°C (10.9–14.0°C) | 23% | 12.0 mm (5.8–25.9 mm) |
| Apr 16–30 | 18.9°C (17.0–21.7°C) | 11.7°C (10.0–13.3°C) | 28% | 22.7 mm (7.4–41.0 mm) |
| May 1–15 | 17.1°C (15.5–19.0°C) | 10.7°C (9.3–12.4°C) | 38% | 28.8 mm (14.2–46.0 mm) |
| May 16–31 | 15.9°C (14.7–17.6°C) | 10.3°C (8.3–11.7°C) | 44% | 44.2 mm (34.4–53.8 mm) |
| Jun 1–15 | 14.4°C (13.4–15.5°C) | 9.2°C (7.8–10.7°C) | 51% | 51.3 mm (32.0–61.6 mm) |
| Jun 16–30 | 13.9°C (12.8–14.8°C) | 8.8°C (7.1–10.0°C) | 51% | 45.4 mm (20.8–68.5 mm) |
| Jul 1–15 | 13.3°C (12.4–14.3°C) | 8.4°C (7.0–9.6°C) | 58% | 52.2 mm (34.7–65.5 mm) |
| Jul 16–31 | 13.4°C (12.4–14.5°C) | 8.0°C (6.5–9.5°C) | 49% | 38.5 mm (28.7–65.0 mm) |
| Aug 1–15 | 13.5°C (12.5–14.7°C) | 8.2°C (6.8–9.5°C) | 56% | 43.8 mm (25.7–58.0 mm) |
| Aug 16–31 | 14.0°C (12.8–15.9°C) | 7.9°C (6.5–9.3°C) | 45% | 39.2 mm (18.3–65.9 mm) |
| Sep 1–15 | 14.9°C (13.7–17.5°C) | 8.9°C (7.6–10.2°C) | 46% | 31.8 mm (22.0–51.8 mm) |
| Sep 16–30 | 16.0°C (14.2–18.9°C) | 9.1°C (7.6–10.5°C) | 39% | 31.0 mm (14.0–44.0 mm) |
| Oct 1–15 | 17.3°C (15.2–21.0°C) | 9.7°C (8.1–11.7°C) | 32% | 22.7 mm (9.4–39.3 mm) |
| Oct 16–31 | 18.6°C (16.2–22.2°C) | 10.4°C (8.7–12.1°C) | 24% | 15.2 mm (9.5–31.7 mm) |
| Nov 1–15 | 19.5°C (17.0–23.6°C) | 11.4°C (9.8–13.4°C) | 26% | 15.5 mm (10.5–26.7 mm) |
| Nov 16–30 | 22.1°C (18.6–26.6°C) | 12.4°C (10.4–14.4°C) | 19% | 7.4 mm (2.7–16.6 mm) |
| Dec 1–15 | 21.7°C (19.3–25.6°C) | 12.9°C (11.4–14.7°C) | 25% | 11.3 mm (6.5–28.7 mm) |
| Dec 16–31 | 23.6°C (20.3–27.5°C) | 13.7°C (12.1–15.9°C) | 17% | 7.7 mm (4.9–19.5 mm) |
Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.
Historical climatology Last Updated August 20, 2026
Most recent season
Growing season heat and rainfall
Sep 1, 2025–Apr 30, 2026
Growing degree days1805.4base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall294.1 mmweighted regional total
2025 season1991–2020 average
2025 season1991–2020 average
View growing-season accumulation data
| Date | Season GDD | 1991–2020 average GDD | Season rainfall | 1991–2020 average rainfall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 8.9 mm | 2.0 mm |
| 2025-09-02 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 9.6 mm | 5.4 mm |
| 2025-09-03 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 9.9 mm | 8.9 mm |
| 2025-09-04 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 10.7 mm | 12.5 mm |
| 2025-09-05 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 11.2 mm | 14.3 mm |
| 2025-09-06 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 11.4 mm | 16.4 mm |
| 2025-09-07 | 21.4 | 15.4 | 12.4 mm | 19.6 mm |
| 2025-09-08 | 24.3 | 18.4 | 12.9 mm | 22.3 mm |
| 2025-09-09 | 25.1 | 20.7 | 14.1 mm | 24.7 mm |
| 2025-09-10 | 26.1 | 22.7 | 16.8 mm | 26.7 mm |
| 2025-09-11 | 27.3 | 25.7 | 18.1 mm | 28.4 mm |
| 2025-09-12 | 28.0 | 28.3 | 19.1 mm | 30.2 mm |
| 2025-09-13 | 28.9 | 31.2 | 19.6 mm | 32.6 mm |
| 2025-09-14 | 33.9 | 33.8 | 19.6 mm | 36.4 mm |
| 2025-09-15 | 41.8 | 36.4 | 21.3 mm | 39.6 mm |
| 2025-09-16 | 44.4 | 38.8 | 25.0 mm | 42.4 mm |
| 2025-09-17 | 46.0 | 41.3 | 27.3 mm | 44.7 mm |
| 2025-09-18 | 50.5 | 44.5 | 27.3 mm | 46.5 mm |
| 2025-09-19 | 53.4 | 47.4 | 28.3 mm | 48.8 mm |
| 2025-09-20 | 54.7 | 50.0 | 29.4 mm | 50.3 mm |
| 2025-09-21 | 57.3 | 53.4 | 32.2 mm | 51.8 mm |
| 2025-09-22 | 59.2 | 57.2 | 34.3 mm | 53.9 mm |
| 2025-09-23 | 60.3 | 60.5 | 34.4 mm | 56.4 mm |
| 2025-09-24 | 63.4 | 63.0 | 34.4 mm | 59.5 mm |
| 2025-09-25 | 67.9 | 65.5 | 34.6 mm | 61.9 mm |
| 2025-09-26 | 72.4 | 68.5 | 34.6 mm | 63.7 mm |
| 2025-09-27 | 75.1 | 72.2 | 34.7 mm | 64.3 mm |
| 2025-09-28 | 78.5 | 75.7 | 35.5 mm | 66.8 mm |
| 2025-09-29 | 84.1 | 78.4 | 38.3 mm | 71.5 mm |
| 2025-09-30 | 86.8 | 81.7 | 43.2 mm | 73.9 mm |
| 2025-10-01 | 89.6 | 85.7 | 52.5 mm | 75.6 mm |
| 2025-10-02 | 91.9 | 89.8 | 57.2 mm | 77.2 mm |
| 2025-10-03 | 96.5 | 94.0 | 57.2 mm | 80.2 mm |
| 2025-10-04 | 103.8 | 98.4 | 57.2 mm | 82.7 mm |
| 2025-10-05 | 111.9 | 102.8 | 59.2 mm | 84.2 mm |
| 2025-10-06 | 114.4 | 106.6 | 64.9 mm | 85.5 mm |
| 2025-10-07 | 116.7 | 110.1 | 65.0 mm | 87.1 mm |
| 2025-10-08 | 120.2 | 113.5 | 65.3 mm | 89.6 mm |
| 2025-10-09 | 124.6 | 117.2 | 65.9 mm | 90.8 mm |
| 2025-10-10 | 129.5 | 121.7 | 67.0 mm | 91.8 mm |
| 2025-10-11 | 133.6 | 125.9 | 68.1 mm | 93.6 mm |
| 2025-10-12 | 137.3 | 130.6 | 68.4 mm | 95.0 mm |
| 2025-10-13 | 139.8 | 134.6 | 68.4 mm | 96.8 mm |
| 2025-10-14 | 143.4 | 139.5 | 68.9 mm | 97.8 mm |
| 2025-10-15 | 149.4 | 144.8 | 69.2 mm | 99.1 mm |
| 2025-10-16 | 158.1 | 149.2 | 69.4 mm | 100.5 mm |
| 2025-10-17 | 162.9 | 154.0 | 70.9 mm | 102.4 mm |
| 2025-10-18 | 168.8 | 159.5 | 70.9 mm | 105.0 mm |
| 2025-10-19 | 178.6 | 164.2 | 70.9 mm | 106.9 mm |
| 2025-10-20 | 183.7 | 168.9 | 71.8 mm | 107.7 mm |
| 2025-10-21 | 190.6 | 173.6 | 75.5 mm | 109.1 mm |
| 2025-10-22 | 194.9 | 178.8 | 87.2 mm | 110.0 mm |
| 2025-10-23 | 198.7 | 184.3 | 87.9 mm | 111.4 mm |
| 2025-10-24 | 202.4 | 190.2 | 87.9 mm | 112.5 mm |
| 2025-10-25 | 209.4 | 195.0 | 91.6 mm | 113.7 mm |
| 2025-10-26 | 215.6 | 199.1 | 98.0 mm | 114.6 mm |
| 2025-10-27 | 218.8 | 203.6 | 102.2 mm | 115.5 mm |
| 2025-10-28 | 220.8 | 208.4 | 102.3 mm | 116.4 mm |
| 2025-10-29 | 224.8 | 214.1 | 102.3 mm | 117.7 mm |
| 2025-10-30 | 230.3 | 219.7 | 102.9 mm | 119.5 mm |
| 2025-10-31 | 237.7 | 225.3 | 107.1 mm | 122.3 mm |
| 2025-11-01 | 245.4 | 231.1 | 107.1 mm | 124.0 mm |
| 2025-11-02 | 254.1 | 237.1 | 108.5 mm | 126.6 mm |
| 2025-11-03 | 255.2 | 242.1 | 117.9 mm | 128.3 mm |
| 2025-11-04 | 257.2 | 247.2 | 126.3 mm | 129.8 mm |
| 2025-11-05 | 260.9 | 252.5 | 126.5 mm | 131.2 mm |
| 2025-11-06 | 266.4 | 258.4 | 126.9 mm | 133.3 mm |
| 2025-11-07 | 272.8 | 264.4 | 128.8 mm | 134.7 mm |
| 2025-11-08 | 275.6 | 270.4 | 130.3 mm | 136.7 mm |
| 2025-11-09 | 278.6 | 276.6 | 130.7 mm | 137.5 mm |
| 2025-11-10 | 282.3 | 283.3 | 130.8 mm | 138.2 mm |
| 2025-11-11 | 284.6 | 290.6 | 133.0 mm | 139.6 mm |
| 2025-11-12 | 287.7 | 298.0 | 133.0 mm | 140.9 mm |
| 2025-11-13 | 293.0 | 305.0 | 134.1 mm | 142.0 mm |
| 2025-11-14 | 299.8 | 311.6 | 135.1 mm | 142.6 mm |
| 2025-11-15 | 304.6 | 318.1 | 135.9 mm | 143.1 mm |
| 2025-11-16 | 309.0 | 324.6 | 140.1 mm | 143.6 mm |
| 2025-11-17 | 312.7 | 332.3 | 146.0 mm | 143.9 mm |
| 2025-11-18 | 318.7 | 340.7 | 147.0 mm | 144.8 mm |
| 2025-11-19 | 323.7 | 349.5 | 147.5 mm | 145.5 mm |
| 2025-11-20 | 327.0 | 357.3 | 147.5 mm | 146.4 mm |
| 2025-11-21 | 331.8 | 364.0 | 147.7 mm | 148.2 mm |
| 2025-11-22 | 337.8 | 370.4 | 150.0 mm | 150.2 mm |
| 2025-11-23 | 347.4 | 377.0 | 164.0 mm | 151.3 mm |
| 2025-11-24 | 359.3 | 384.7 | 166.6 mm | 151.9 mm |
| 2025-11-25 | 366.8 | 393.4 | 166.7 mm | 153.4 mm |
| 2025-11-26 | 372.4 | 401.8 | 168.4 mm | 154.5 mm |
| 2025-11-27 | 378.0 | 410.2 | 170.2 mm | 155.0 mm |
| 2025-11-28 | 382.7 | 417.7 | 174.6 mm | 155.8 mm |
| 2025-11-29 | 387.1 | 425.3 | 186.4 mm | 156.6 mm |
| 2025-11-30 | 391.5 | 433.0 | 187.9 mm | 157.3 mm |
| 2025-12-01 | 395.6 | 440.3 | 189.7 mm | 158.5 mm |
| 2025-12-02 | 400.5 | 447.9 | 192.5 mm | 159.6 mm |
| 2025-12-03 | 409.8 | 455.1 | 192.5 mm | 161.6 mm |
| 2025-12-04 | 421.9 | 462.6 | 192.5 mm | 162.1 mm |
| 2025-12-05 | 430.8 | 470.2 | 192.9 mm | 163.2 mm |
| 2025-12-06 | 436.5 | 478.3 | 193.2 mm | 164.7 mm |
| 2025-12-07 | 440.2 | 486.5 | 193.2 mm | 165.7 mm |
| 2025-12-08 | 447.9 | 494.7 | 193.2 mm | 168.0 mm |
| 2025-12-09 | 456.5 | 503.0 | 193.2 mm | 168.9 mm |
| 2025-12-10 | 465.4 | 510.7 | 193.2 mm | 169.5 mm |
| 2025-12-11 | 476.5 | 518.8 | 193.2 mm | 170.2 mm |
| 2025-12-12 | 491.3 | 527.4 | 193.2 mm | 171.3 mm |
| 2025-12-13 | 499.4 | 536.2 | 193.4 mm | 172.5 mm |
| 2025-12-14 | 505.4 | 544.9 | 193.5 mm | 174.6 mm |
| 2025-12-15 | 511.1 | 553.6 | 193.5 mm | 175.3 mm |
| 2025-12-16 | 518.7 | 562.6 | 193.5 mm | 175.9 mm |
| 2025-12-17 | 531.2 | 571.4 | 193.5 mm | 177.4 mm |
| 2025-12-18 | 547.9 | 581.0 | 193.5 mm | 179.2 mm |
| 2025-12-19 | 558.5 | 591.5 | 193.5 mm | 181.4 mm |
| 2025-12-20 | 566.8 | 601.4 | 193.5 mm | 182.3 mm |
| 2025-12-21 | 573.8 | 610.5 | 196.0 mm | 183.7 mm |
| 2025-12-22 | 579.5 | 618.8 | 196.5 mm | 185.6 mm |
| 2025-12-23 | 586.3 | 627.7 | 196.7 mm | 185.9 mm |
| 2025-12-24 | 592.2 | 636.4 | 196.7 mm | 186.2 mm |
| 2025-12-25 | 598.2 | 645.2 | 196.7 mm | 186.7 mm |
| 2025-12-26 | 604.5 | 653.3 | 196.7 mm | 187.1 mm |
| 2025-12-27 | 613.6 | 661.9 | 196.7 mm | 187.4 mm |
| 2025-12-28 | 626.1 | 670.8 | 196.7 mm | 188.8 mm |
| 2025-12-29 | 641.6 | 680.3 | 196.7 mm | 189.1 mm |
| 2025-12-30 | 649.1 | 690.8 | 196.7 mm | 189.3 mm |
| 2025-12-31 | 655.1 | 701.2 | 196.7 mm | 189.6 mm |
| 2026-01-01 | 662.3 | 711.4 | 196.7 mm | 190.5 mm |
| 2026-01-02 | 672.7 | 721.5 | 196.7 mm | 191.1 mm |
| 2026-01-03 | 681.4 | 731.9 | 196.7 mm | 191.3 mm |
| 2026-01-04 | 690.0 | 741.9 | 196.7 mm | 192.1 mm |
| 2026-01-05 | 699.6 | 751.9 | 196.7 mm | 192.9 mm |
| 2026-01-06 | 713.0 | 761.7 | 196.7 mm | 193.6 mm |
| 2026-01-07 | 731.3 | 771.3 | 196.7 mm | 194.5 mm |
| 2026-01-08 | 749.5 | 780.4 | 196.7 mm | 195.6 mm |
| 2026-01-09 | 762.4 | 790.4 | 196.7 mm | 195.9 mm |
| 2026-01-10 | 769.7 | 802.2 | 196.8 mm | 196.2 mm |
| 2026-01-11 | 776.4 | 813.3 | 196.8 mm | 196.4 mm |
| 2026-01-12 | 784.5 | 824.1 | 196.8 mm | 197.0 mm |
| 2026-01-13 | 793.2 | 835.5 | 196.8 mm | 198.5 mm |
| 2026-01-14 | 802.9 | 846.4 | 196.8 mm | 199.9 mm |
| 2026-01-15 | 810.1 | 856.8 | 197.0 mm | 200.5 mm |
| 2026-01-16 | 818.4 | 868.0 | 197.1 mm | 200.6 mm |
| 2026-01-17 | 829.2 | 879.2 | 197.2 mm | 200.8 mm |
| 2026-01-18 | 842.7 | 889.6 | 197.2 mm | 201.0 mm |
| 2026-01-19 | 855.2 | 901.4 | 197.2 mm | 201.6 mm |
| 2026-01-20 | 867.2 | 912.6 | 197.2 mm | 203.7 mm |
| 2026-01-21 | 875.0 | 922.6 | 197.2 mm | 205.0 mm |
| 2026-01-22 | 882.7 | 933.1 | 197.2 mm | 206.5 mm |
| 2026-01-23 | 895.1 | 943.2 | 197.2 mm | 207.0 mm |
| 2026-01-24 | 913.4 | 953.5 | 197.2 mm | 208.4 mm |
| 2026-01-25 | 926.2 | 964.3 | 197.2 mm | 209.3 mm |
| 2026-01-26 | 943.4 | 974.8 | 197.2 mm | 209.8 mm |
| 2026-01-27 | 962.7 | 984.7 | 197.2 mm | 210.0 mm |
| 2026-01-28 | 975.6 | 994.7 | 197.2 mm | 210.4 mm |
| 2026-01-29 | 989.7 | 1004.9 | 197.2 mm | 211.1 mm |
| 2026-01-30 | 1006.2 | 1015.8 | 197.2 mm | 212.5 mm |
| 2026-01-31 | 1018.0 | 1026.2 | 197.2 mm | 212.9 mm |
| 2026-02-01 | 1025.6 | 1036.9 | 197.3 mm | 214.2 mm |
| 2026-02-02 | 1033.1 | 1048.7 | 197.3 mm | 215.4 mm |
| 2026-02-03 | 1043.2 | 1059.8 | 197.3 mm | 216.4 mm |
| 2026-02-04 | 1054.1 | 1071.3 | 197.3 mm | 216.9 mm |
| 2026-02-05 | 1064.5 | 1081.6 | 197.3 mm | 217.8 mm |
| 2026-02-06 | 1075.1 | 1092.1 | 197.3 mm | 219.0 mm |
| 2026-02-07 | 1086.2 | 1102.8 | 197.3 mm | 219.9 mm |
| 2026-02-08 | 1097.6 | 1113.2 | 197.3 mm | 220.7 mm |
| 2026-02-09 | 1107.8 | 1123.1 | 197.3 mm | 221.6 mm |
| 2026-02-10 | 1120.2 | 1133.2 | 197.3 mm | 222.1 mm |
| 2026-02-11 | 1132.9 | 1142.8 | 198.2 mm | 222.8 mm |
| 2026-02-12 | 1138.9 | 1152.4 | 198.4 mm | 223.4 mm |
| 2026-02-13 | 1146.0 | 1162.5 | 198.4 mm | 223.9 mm |
| 2026-02-14 | 1156.6 | 1173.8 | 198.4 mm | 225.1 mm |
| 2026-02-15 | 1170.5 | 1184.8 | 198.4 mm | 225.6 mm |
| 2026-02-16 | 1187.0 | 1195.1 | 198.4 mm | 226.5 mm |
| 2026-02-17 | 1199.4 | 1206.0 | 200.3 mm | 226.6 mm |
| 2026-02-18 | 1206.9 | 1217.5 | 202.3 mm | 227.0 mm |
| 2026-02-19 | 1216.1 | 1228.4 | 202.3 mm | 228.6 mm |
| 2026-02-20 | 1228.9 | 1238.2 | 202.3 mm | 230.7 mm |
| 2026-02-21 | 1241.6 | 1248.3 | 202.3 mm | 232.3 mm |
| 2026-02-22 | 1251.8 | 1258.9 | 208.2 mm | 233.1 mm |
| 2026-02-23 | 1260.4 | 1269.7 | 208.7 mm | 233.4 mm |
| 2026-02-24 | 1270.3 | 1280.4 | 208.8 mm | 233.7 mm |
| 2026-02-25 | 1279.9 | 1291.4 | 208.8 mm | 234.1 mm |
| 2026-02-26 | 1290.7 | 1301.8 | 208.8 mm | 234.4 mm |
| 2026-02-27 | 1304.8 | 1311.3 | 208.8 mm | 234.8 mm |
| 2026-02-28 | 1317.2 | 1320.7 | 215.7 mm | 235.2 mm |
| 2026-03-01 | 1329.0 | 1330.0 | 229.8 mm | 236.9 mm |
| 2026-03-02 | 1336.6 | 1339.9 | 234.5 mm | 237.5 mm |
| 2026-03-03 | 1344.0 | 1349.8 | 234.6 mm | 238.0 mm |
| 2026-03-04 | 1352.2 | 1359.5 | 234.6 mm | 238.4 mm |
| 2026-03-05 | 1360.5 | 1368.9 | 234.6 mm | 238.8 mm |
| 2026-03-06 | 1369.6 | 1378.2 | 234.6 mm | 239.3 mm |
| 2026-03-07 | 1377.8 | 1387.4 | 234.6 mm | 240.5 mm |
| 2026-03-08 | 1385.2 | 1397.1 | 234.6 mm | 241.1 mm |
| 2026-03-09 | 1392.9 | 1406.9 | 234.6 mm | 242.0 mm |
| 2026-03-10 | 1403.7 | 1416.7 | 234.6 mm | 242.3 mm |
| 2026-03-11 | 1412.6 | 1426.9 | 234.7 mm | 242.4 mm |
| 2026-03-12 | 1418.8 | 1436.7 | 234.8 mm | 242.8 mm |
| 2026-03-13 | 1425.4 | 1445.5 | 234.8 mm | 243.3 mm |
| 2026-03-14 | 1433.7 | 1454.0 | 234.8 mm | 243.6 mm |
| 2026-03-15 | 1444.8 | 1462.5 | 234.8 mm | 244.6 mm |
| 2026-03-16 | 1451.9 | 1470.7 | 243.3 mm | 246.0 mm |
| 2026-03-17 | 1460.1 | 1480.1 | 248.7 mm | 246.9 mm |
| 2026-03-18 | 1469.9 | 1489.0 | 250.0 mm | 248.2 mm |
| 2026-03-19 | 1479.4 | 1497.7 | 250.2 mm | 248.7 mm |
| 2026-03-20 | 1488.6 | 1506.2 | 250.3 mm | 249.1 mm |
| 2026-03-21 | 1496.8 | 1514.0 | 250.3 mm | 251.5 mm |
| 2026-03-22 | 1505.7 | 1521.9 | 250.3 mm | 252.2 mm |
| 2026-03-23 | 1517.5 | 1529.8 | 250.3 mm | 253.6 mm |
| 2026-03-24 | 1531.0 | 1537.9 | 250.3 mm | 254.8 mm |
| 2026-03-25 | 1541.6 | 1545.8 | 250.4 mm | 255.6 mm |
| 2026-03-26 | 1547.1 | 1553.8 | 251.0 mm | 256.7 mm |
| 2026-03-27 | 1551.6 | 1561.6 | 251.2 mm | 257.8 mm |
| 2026-03-28 | 1557.2 | 1569.1 | 251.6 mm | 258.7 mm |
| 2026-03-29 | 1565.1 | 1576.1 | 251.7 mm | 260.1 mm |
| 2026-03-30 | 1576.0 | 1582.7 | 251.7 mm | 260.7 mm |
| 2026-03-31 | 1587.2 | 1589.9 | 251.7 mm | 261.4 mm |
| 2026-04-01 | 1596.5 | 1597.4 | 255.0 mm | 261.9 mm |
| 2026-04-02 | 1603.4 | 1604.5 | 255.1 mm | 262.5 mm |
| 2026-04-03 | 1609.9 | 1610.8 | 255.2 mm | 263.2 mm |
| 2026-04-04 | 1617.0 | 1617.5 | 255.6 mm | 264.0 mm |
| 2026-04-05 | 1625.7 | 1624.6 | 260.8 mm | 265.7 mm |
| 2026-04-06 | 1635.9 | 1631.3 | 264.8 mm | 268.5 mm |
| 2026-04-07 | 1641.1 | 1638.0 | 266.0 mm | 270.0 mm |
| 2026-04-08 | 1646.4 | 1644.8 | 267.8 mm | 270.8 mm |
| 2026-04-09 | 1654.0 | 1651.7 | 278.7 mm | 271.9 mm |
| 2026-04-10 | 1658.7 | 1658.7 | 287.5 mm | 272.5 mm |
| 2026-04-11 | 1662.3 | 1665.6 | 289.3 mm | 273.4 mm |
| 2026-04-12 | 1666.9 | 1672.4 | 290.2 mm | 275.1 mm |
| 2026-04-13 | 1671.1 | 1679.4 | 290.8 mm | 276.4 mm |
| 2026-04-14 | 1675.5 | 1686.1 | 291.1 mm | 278.1 mm |
| 2026-04-15 | 1681.2 | 1692.3 | 291.5 mm | 279.1 mm |
| 2026-04-16 | 1688.6 | 1697.9 | 291.5 mm | 280.1 mm |
| 2026-04-17 | 1693.3 | 1703.5 | 291.5 mm | 281.0 mm |
| 2026-04-18 | 1698.6 | 1709.7 | 291.5 mm | 281.8 mm |
| 2026-04-19 | 1707.6 | 1716.5 | 291.8 mm | 282.8 mm |
| 2026-04-20 | 1714.3 | 1723.3 | 292.0 mm | 284.9 mm |
| 2026-04-21 | 1723.5 | 1729.5 | 292.0 mm | 286.7 mm |
| 2026-04-22 | 1733.7 | 1735.1 | 292.0 mm | 288.2 mm |
| 2026-04-23 | 1743.5 | 1740.9 | 292.0 mm | 289.6 mm |
| 2026-04-24 | 1753.9 | 1746.2 | 292.0 mm | 291.7 mm |
| 2026-04-25 | 1764.7 | 1751.5 | 292.0 mm | 294.6 mm |
| 2026-04-26 | 1771.3 | 1756.7 | 294.1 mm | 297.3 mm |
| 2026-04-27 | 1777.3 | 1761.8 | 294.1 mm | 299.9 mm |
| 2026-04-28 | 1784.9 | 1767.1 | 294.1 mm | 301.4 mm |
| 2026-04-29 | 1793.6 | 1772.1 | 294.1 mm | 304.5 mm |
| 2026-04-30 | 1805.4 | 1776.9 | 294.1 mm | 307.0 mm |
Forecast outlook
ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC
10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record
- GDD accumulation
- 24 GDDvs 23 GDD average
- Total rainfall
- 23.7 mmvs 28.6 mm average
No unusually hot or wet period stands out in the short-range forecast.
Sun8/30
16°Cavg 16°C
8°Cavg 9°C
+3 GDD
0.0 mm
Mon8/31
16°Cavg 15°C
7°Cavg 9°C
+2 GDD
0.0 mm
Tue9/1
18°Cavg 15°C
12°Cavg 9°C
+4 GDD
4.7 mm
Wed9/2
13°Cavg 16°C
11°Cavg 9°C
+2 GDD
1.3 mm
Thu9/3
15°Cavg 15°C
12°Cavg 9°C
+3 GDD
6.6 mm
Fri9/4
19°Cavg 15°C
11°Cavg 8°C
+4 GDD
6.9 mm
Sat9/5
15°Cavg 15°C
10°Cavg 8°C
+3 GDD
4.1 mm
Sun9/6
13°Cavg 16°C
9°Cavg 8°C
+2 GDD
0.0 mm
Mon9/7
13°Cavg 16°C
8°Cavg 9°C
+1 GDD
0.0 mm
Tue9/8
14°Cavg 16°C
8°Cavg 10°C
+1 GDD
0.0 mm
Data and methods
Show data sources and model assumptions
Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.
Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.
This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.
Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed August 23, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.
The McLaren Vale model uses a September 1–April 30 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 35°C.
The historical series uses 1 ERA5 location, 4 temperature stations, and 46 rain stations. Interpretation confidence: high. Geometry confidence: reviewed-approximate. Rules: mclaren-vale-catalog-v2-2026-07.