Display
Climate baseline
Units
Color theme

Italy · Multi-region weather view

Central Sicily

Warm inland vineyards across central and western Sicily.

The growing season is long, sunny, and dry, with sustained heat and water stress common.

Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Aug 20, 2026.

Current conditions

Observations through Aug 30, 2026 · 06:00 UTC

Temperature26.6°C
Dew Point14.4°C
Relative Humidity47%
24h Rainfall0.8 mmmodeled IFS total through Aug 29

Vintage explorer

Compare this vintage →

Moderately warmer and significantly wetter than normal.

Mean temperature19.8°C
Temperature anomaly+0.6°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days2301base 10°C
Hot days9≥ 35°C

What stood out in 2003

Frequent rain can mean more canopy growth and more disease pressure. Rain close to harvest can raise rot pressure and shorten the picking window. Frost exposure can vary sharply from one site to the next.

Wetter than baseline · Moderate confidence

Growing-season precipitation was 151 mm above the 1991–2020 baseline.

Frequent rain can mean more canopy growth and more disease pressure.

More harvest rain than usual · High confidence

Harvest-window precipitation totaled 213 mm, +103 mm versus baseline.

Rain close to harvest can raise rot pressure and shorten the picking window.

Spring frost recorded · Low confidence

The regional record had 1 spring day(s) at or below 0°C.

Frost exposure can vary sharply from one site to the next.

How unusual was 2003?

The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.

Growing-season temperature

9th warmest of 35 vintages Warmer than 26 of 34 other vintages 19.8°C

Growing-season rainfall

2nd wettest of 35 vintages Wetter than 33 of 34 other vintages 392.4 mm

Heat accumulation

7th highest of 35 vintages Higher than 28 of 34 other vintages 2301 GDD

Hot days

7th most of 35 vintages More than 28 of 34 other vintages 9 days

2003 month by month

Compared with 1991–2020

Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.

Frost watch Growing season Harvest window
  1. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2003 3 GDD
    Typical 29 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 28.9 mm
    Typical 52.1 mm
    2003 freezing days
    1
    Typical
    1.2

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

  2. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2003 68 GDD
    Typical 84 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 104.1 mm
    Typical 50.1 mm
    2003 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.1

    Wetter than the typical month.

  3. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2003 243 GDD
    Typical 220 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 18.5 mm
    Typical 26.8 mm
    2003 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.0

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  4. 1–30
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2003 405 GDD
    Typical 349 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 11.0 mm
    Typical 18.1 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  5. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2003 493 GDD
    Typical 443 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 2.6 mm
    Typical 5.0 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  6. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2003 501 GDD
    Typical 453 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 21.8 mm
    Typical 11.4 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

  7. 1–30
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2003 339 GDD
    Typical 335 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 90.0 mm
    Typical 39.4 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

  8. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2003 250 GDD
    Typical 233 GDD

    Rainfall

    2003 120.2 mm
    Typical 65.3 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

View milestone calendar data as a table
Month2003 GDDTypical GDD2003 rainfallTypical rainfall2003 freezing daysTypical freezing days
March 2003 3 GDD 29 GDD 28.9 mm 52.1 mm 11.2
April 2003 68 GDD 84 GDD 104.1 mm 50.1 mm 00.1
May 2003 243 GDD 220 GDD 18.5 mm 26.8 mm 00.0
June 2003 405 GDD 349 GDD 11.0 mm 18.1 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
July 2003 493 GDD 443 GDD 2.6 mm 5.0 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
August 2003 501 GDD 453 GDD 21.8 mm 11.4 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
September 2003 339 GDD 335 GDD 90.0 mm 39.4 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
October 2003 250 GDD 233 GDD 120.2 mm 65.3 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
Calendar data and method

Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.

Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.

Replay the 2003 growing season

231 daily regional observations

Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.

Replay data and method

Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Jul 14, 2026.

Closest weather matches

These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.

  1. Closest match

    2021

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Spring frost exposure.

    Hot-day count
    fewer hot days: 2 days
    Spring frost exposure
    fewer frost-exposure days: 1 day

    Largest difference: Growing-season precipitation — less rain

    View 2021 →

  2. Second closest

    2018

    Most alike in Spring frost exposure and Growing-season mean temperature.

    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days
    Growing-season mean temperature
    cooler: 0.0°C

    Largest difference: Growing-season precipitation — more rain

    View 2018 →

  3. Third closest

    2012

    Most alike in Growing-season mean temperature and Growing degree days.

    Growing-season mean temperature
    cooler: 0.1°C
    Growing degree days
    lower: 53 GDD

    Largest difference: Growing-season precipitation — less rain

    View 2012 →
How similar years are calculated

Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.

Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Hot-day count (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%); Spring frost exposure (10%).

Calculated distances: 2021 0.587; 2018 0.783; 2012 0.887.

Growing-season temperature anomalyCompared with 1991-2020
Temperature anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 A line above zero indicates a warmer growing season than the 1991–2020 baseline. Select a point to inspect that vintage. +2.5°C −2.5°C 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
Growing-season rainfall anomaly
Rainfall anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 Bars show millimeters above or below the 1991–2020 growing-season baseline. Select a bar to inspect that vintage. +270 mm −270 mm 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
View historical chart data as a table
YearTemperature anomalyRainfall anomalyHot days
1991-1.5°C-4 mm0
1992-1.2°C+8 mm0
1993-0.5°C-76 mm1
1994-0.0°C-60 mm0
1995-1.1°C-62 mm0
1996-1.4°C+76 mm0
1997-1.0°C+118 mm0
1998-0.3°C-17 mm4
1999+0.8°C-148 mm5
2000+0.6°C-33 mm11
2001+0.7°C-163 mm0
2002-0.2°C-22 mm3
2003+0.6°C+151 mm9
2004-0.3°C-14 mm1
2005-0.2°C+85 mm3
2006+0.4°C-46 mm6
2007+0.6°C-24 mm14
2008+0.4°C-65 mm2
2009+0.1°C+33 mm2
2010-0.2°C+129 mm1
2011-0.3°C-18 mm0
2012+0.5°C+11 mm5
2013+0.4°C-69 mm1
2014+0.1°C-59 mm0
2015+0.2°C+94 mm1
2016+0.9°C-47 mm1
2017+1.2°C-112 mm16
2018+0.6°C+259 mm2
2019+0.1°C+60 mm2
2020-0.0°C+15 mm0
2021+0.3°C+68 mm7
2022+0.7°C-38 mm0
2023+0.7°C-6 mm11
2024+2.3°C-6 mm34
2025+0.9°C+13 mm11
2026+1.2°C-60 mm20

winter

7.7°C

-0.5°C vs baseline

187 mm rain · +19 mm

spring

12.9°C

-0.3°C vs baseline

151 mm rain · +22 mm

summer

25.2°C

+1.7°C vs baseline

35 mm rain · +1 mm

harvest

21.3°C

+0.9°C vs baseline

213 mm rain · +103 mm

Weather events

Periods that crossed one of the published regional thresholds, shown in date order.

  1. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -0.9°C
    Duration
    1 day
    Severe-freeze days
    0 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  2. Dry spell

    Duration
    25 days
    Total rain
    0.8 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  3. Dry spell

    Duration
    20 days
    Total rain
    0.9 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  4. Heat episode

    Peak temperature
    36.5°C
    Duration
    2 days
    Heat accumulation
    36 GDD

  5. Dry spell

    Duration
    21 days
    Total rain
    0.6 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  6. Heat episode

    Peak temperature
    35.7°C
    Duration
    2 days
    Heat accumulation
    38 GDD

  7. Dry spell

    Duration
    20 days
    Total rain
    0.3 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  8. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    47.1 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    31.3 mm
    Trigger threshold
    22.3 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

  9. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    65.3 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    35.2 mm
    Trigger threshold
    22.3 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

  10. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    31.6 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    30.9 mm
    Trigger threshold
    22.3 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

How events are detected

Weather & Vines combined regional series; method event-timeline-v2-2026-07, rules sicily-catalog-v1-2026-07. Source last updated Jul 14, 2026, calculated Aug 29, 2026. Each configured point must have at least 95.0% coverage.

1991–present

Climate change

Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.

Compare regions

Observed record

Historical trends, 1991–2025

Growing degree days changed +116.1 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +67.5 to +164.7 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.

How it is measured: Across the March 15–October 31 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.

Growing degree days · annual change from the 1991–2020 average1991–2025

Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.

View annual growing degree days data
VintageGrowing degree daysChange from 1991–2020
19911794 GDD-343 GDD
19921883 GDD-254 GDD
19932026 GDD-111 GDD
19942118 GDD-19 GDD
19951910 GDD-227 GDD
19961817 GDD-320 GDD
19971941 GDD-196 GDD
19982085 GDD-52 GDD
19992323 GDD+186 GDD
20002257 GDD+120 GDD
20012278 GDD+141 GDD
20022096 GDD-41 GDD
20032301 GDD+164 GDD
20042044 GDD-93 GDD
20052087 GDD-50 GDD
20062225 GDD+88 GDD
20072275 GDD+138 GDD
20082225 GDD+88 GDD
20092165 GDD+28 GDD
20102084 GDD-53 GDD
20112064 GDD-73 GDD
20122248 GDD+111 GDD
20132214 GDD+77 GDD
20142156 GDD+19 GDD
20152184 GDD+47 GDD
20162348 GDD+211 GDD
20172395 GDD+258 GDD
20182276 GDD+139 GDD
20192157 GDD+20 GDD
20202132 GDD-5 GDD
20212218 GDD+81 GDD
20222309 GDD+172 GDD
20232294 GDD+157 GDD
20242652 GDD+516 GDD
20252346 GDD+209 GDD
Growing-season mean temperature
+0.52 °C per decade 95% interval +0.30 to +0.74
Growing degree days
+116.08 GDD per decade 95% interval +67.47 to +164.69
Growing-season precipitation
+15.20 mm per decade 95% interval -5.50 to +35.90
Hot days
+2.60 days per decade 95% interval -0.05 to +5.24
Spring frost days
-0.80 days per decade 95% interval -1.46 to -0.14
Longest dry spell
-3.53 days per decade 95% interval -8.05 to +0.99

Last Updated July 15, 2026

Model ensemble

Projected climate through 2075

Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.

Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.

PeriodWeighted medianWeighted central 80%Models per pathway
2021-2040+1.1°C+0.7 to +1.5°C25
2041-2060+1.7°C+1.1 to +2.4°C25
2061-2075+2.2°C+1.4 to +2.9°C25
How pathways are combined

For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Compare projection measures across regions

Typical year · 1991–2020

When to visit

This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.

Deterministic IFS forecast

Next ten days

Detailed forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · model run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC · retrieved Aug 30, 2026 at 08:22 UTC

Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.

DateSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTue
High 38°C 37°C 36°C 36°C 35°C 33°C 34°C 34°C 35°C 35°C
Low 24°C 23°C 19°C 19°C 19°C 18°C 21°C 22°C 22°C 22°C
Rain 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm

Across the typical year: Early August has the warmest median afternoon high (30.6°C); Late January has the coolest (12.0°C). Wet days are most frequent in Early March (34%) and least frequent in Late July (3%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lowsMedians and middle 50% of daily readings

Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lows for Central Sicily Median daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 24 early and late-month periods under the 1991–2020 baseline. Neutral bands show the 25th to 75th percentile. 0°C10°C20°C30°C JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
How often a day is wetShare of days with at least 1 mm of rain

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Wet-day frequency through the typical year for Central Sicily The fraction of days receiving at least one millimeter of rain in each early and late-month period under the 1991–2020 baseline. 0%25%50%75%100% JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
View all 24 periods as a table

Scroll horizontally to view all columns.

Central Sicily typical weather by half-month, 1991–2020
PeriodAfternoon high, median (middle 50%)Overnight low, median (middle 50%)Wet-day frequencyPeriod rain, median (middle 50%)
Jan 1–1512.7°C (11.2–14.3°C)3.5°C (1.1–5.7°C)23%16.2 mm (7.7–30.5 mm)
Jan 16–3112.0°C (10.2–13.2°C)3.5°C (1.4–5.4°C)33%30.2 mm (15.3–49.4 mm)
Feb 1–1512.4°C (10.0–14.2°C)3.0°C (0.8–5.1°C)33%25.8 mm (9.8–38.1 mm)
Feb 16–2912.9°C (10.9–14.8°C)3.7°C (1.2–5.6°C)31%19.6 mm (7.2–36.3 mm)
Mar 1–1513.9°C (11.8–16.1°C)4.4°C (2.8–6.5°C)34%24.9 mm (10.4–37.1 mm)
Mar 16–3115.7°C (13.4–17.4°C)5.2°C (3.7–7.4°C)25%20.6 mm (6.6–27.9 mm)
Apr 1–1516.8°C (14.8–18.6°C)6.8°C (5.2–8.6°C)28%18.9 mm (12.7–33.1 mm)
Apr 16–3018.4°C (16.5–20.4°C)8.5°C (6.6–10.5°C)30%25.3 mm (10.5–30.9 mm)
May 1–1521.3°C (19.4–23.4°C)10.5°C (8.9–12.2°C)17%10.0 mm (2.2–21.6 mm)
May 16–3123.6°C (21.2–25.8°C)12.5°C (10.8–14.3°C)15%9.4 mm (2.6–16.3 mm)
Jun 1–1526.2°C (24.3–28.1°C)14.8°C (13.1–16.4°C)14%5.3 mm (1.8–13.3 mm)
Jun 16–3028.7°C (26.4–30.9°C)16.7°C (15.1–18.5°C)9%3.2 mm (0.3–8.7 mm)
Jul 1–1530.1°C (28.3–31.9°C)18.2°C (16.7–19.6°C)4%1.3 mm (0.3–2.4 mm)
Jul 16–3130.6°C (28.9–32.1°C)18.4°C (17.1–19.8°C)3%0.5 mm (0.0–2.5 mm)
Aug 1–1530.6°C (29.1–32.3°C)18.9°C (17.8–20.1°C)8%2.8 mm (0.2–7.7 mm)
Aug 16–3130.0°C (28.6–31.8°C)18.5°C (17.2–19.8°C)8%2.8 mm (0.5–7.9 mm)
Sep 1–1527.1°C (25.8–28.9°C)16.7°C (15.3–18.4°C)17%13.3 mm (4.9–26.3 mm)
Sep 16–3025.1°C (23.7–27.0°C)15.2°C (13.7–17.0°C)24%15.7 mm (6.0–37.3 mm)
Oct 1–1523.5°C (21.7–25.3°C)13.6°C (11.9–15.3°C)25%31.8 mm (9.4–40.8 mm)
Oct 16–3121.4°C (19.5–23.3°C)12.0°C (9.9–13.7°C)26%18.4 mm (6.9–41.8 mm)
Nov 1–1519.1°C (17.1–20.4°C)9.7°C (7.6–11.4°C)29%22.9 mm (7.6–37.7 mm)
Nov 16–3016.0°C (14.1–17.7°C)7.5°C (5.3–9.6°C)31%30.6 mm (18.1–43.9 mm)
Dec 1–1514.2°C (12.6–15.5°C)5.6°C (3.8–7.5°C)27%19.1 mm (12.3–32.4 mm)
Dec 16–3112.7°C (10.8–14.4°C)4.3°C (2.3–6.7°C)31%21.5 mm (15.9–35.2 mm)

Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.

Historical climatology Last Updated July 15, 2026

Season to date

Growing season heat and rainfall

Mar 15–Aug 30, 2026

Growing degree days1721.1base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall181.4 mmweighted regional total
Cumulative growing degree daysBase 10°C

2026 season1991–2020 average

Growing degree days accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily mean temperature above 10 degrees Celsius from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 1721 GDD 0 Mar ’26AprMayJunJulAug
Cumulative growing-season rainfallRegional weighted mean

2026 season1991–2020 average

Rainfall accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily rainfall in millimeters from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 181 mm 0 Mar ’26AprMayJunJulAug
View growing-season accumulation data
DateSeason GDD1991–2020 average GDDSeason rainfall1991–2020 average rainfall
2026-03-150.00.813.1 mm1.6 mm
2026-03-160.02.027.9 mm2.8 mm
2026-03-171.62.832.7 mm3.6 mm
2026-03-181.63.736.7 mm4.4 mm
2026-03-191.64.637.2 mm5.2 mm
2026-03-201.65.542.3 mm7.2 mm
2026-03-211.66.642.4 mm8.0 mm
2026-03-221.68.044.4 mm9.5 mm
2026-03-231.69.245.7 mm11.1 mm
2026-03-241.610.449.1 mm13.5 mm
2026-03-251.611.749.1 mm17.0 mm
2026-03-261.613.349.6 mm18.3 mm
2026-03-271.614.654.8 mm20.2 mm
2026-03-281.615.754.9 mm21.0 mm
2026-03-291.617.255.7 mm22.3 mm
2026-03-301.618.659.8 mm23.5 mm
2026-03-311.620.368.4 mm24.7 mm
2026-04-011.621.975.5 mm26.8 mm
2026-04-021.623.381.7 mm29.1 mm
2026-04-031.624.985.3 mm30.5 mm
2026-04-043.526.488.5 mm34.6 mm
2026-04-055.728.488.7 mm36.8 mm
2026-04-068.230.288.7 mm37.9 mm
2026-04-0712.732.188.7 mm38.7 mm
2026-04-0816.934.288.7 mm39.9 mm
2026-04-0921.236.288.7 mm41.8 mm
2026-04-1025.838.588.7 mm43.2 mm
2026-04-1131.541.388.7 mm44.7 mm
2026-04-1237.043.688.7 mm47.4 mm
2026-04-1342.645.988.7 mm49.4 mm
2026-04-1448.148.297.9 mm50.0 mm
2026-04-1550.850.8102.5 mm51.1 mm
2026-04-1654.853.7111.8 mm52.5 mm
2026-04-1760.556.3112.1 mm54.9 mm
2026-04-1867.158.9112.6 mm57.4 mm
2026-04-1971.761.7112.8 mm58.4 mm
2026-04-2076.664.6112.9 mm59.2 mm
2026-04-2181.967.7112.9 mm60.7 mm
2026-04-2288.970.6113.4 mm62.9 mm
2026-04-2390.674.0118.1 mm63.5 mm
2026-04-2492.377.7118.2 mm64.9 mm
2026-04-2594.981.7118.2 mm66.2 mm
2026-04-2699.186.0118.2 mm69.0 mm
2026-04-27103.790.4118.2 mm71.4 mm
2026-04-28110.295.2118.2 mm72.8 mm
2026-04-29116.999.9118.3 mm73.6 mm
2026-04-30124.7104.7118.3 mm74.8 mm
2026-05-01128.3109.5119.5 mm75.3 mm
2026-05-02130.2114.6119.6 mm76.1 mm
2026-05-03132.8120.3119.6 mm78.1 mm
2026-05-04137.4126.0120.8 mm79.2 mm
2026-05-05143.5131.4120.8 mm80.1 mm
2026-05-06150.9136.6121.3 mm81.1 mm
2026-05-07157.2142.0121.3 mm81.7 mm
2026-05-08165.5147.5121.7 mm82.3 mm
2026-05-09174.1153.5121.8 mm82.4 mm
2026-05-10183.3160.0121.9 mm83.0 mm
2026-05-11193.4166.9121.9 mm83.9 mm
2026-05-12203.4174.0121.9 mm84.7 mm
2026-05-13212.0181.0121.9 mm85.3 mm
2026-05-14217.8188.1121.9 mm86.4 mm
2026-05-15223.9195.0123.4 mm87.4 mm
2026-05-16229.8201.6125.0 mm88.4 mm
2026-05-17234.4208.7125.0 mm90.6 mm
2026-05-18238.9216.1125.4 mm91.1 mm
2026-05-19243.2223.4128.2 mm92.0 mm
2026-05-20249.5230.8128.2 mm92.7 mm
2026-05-21257.0238.3128.2 mm93.0 mm
2026-05-22264.9246.2128.2 mm93.8 mm
2026-05-23274.8254.1128.2 mm94.3 mm
2026-05-24283.8262.3132.5 mm95.3 mm
2026-05-25293.1270.6141.0 mm96.7 mm
2026-05-26303.4279.3141.0 mm98.0 mm
2026-05-27314.9288.2141.2 mm99.2 mm
2026-05-28328.0297.3141.3 mm100.0 mm
2026-05-29341.2306.2142.7 mm100.3 mm
2026-05-30352.1315.0142.8 mm101.1 mm
2026-05-31363.3324.2143.2 mm101.7 mm
2026-06-01374.2333.2143.2 mm102.5 mm
2026-06-02384.9342.5143.2 mm103.6 mm
2026-06-03396.8351.7143.3 mm104.0 mm
2026-06-04409.2361.3143.3 mm105.0 mm
2026-06-05423.0371.2143.3 mm105.9 mm
2026-06-06437.2381.2143.3 mm106.2 mm
2026-06-07451.6391.8143.3 mm107.1 mm
2026-06-08464.1402.7143.7 mm107.3 mm
2026-06-09477.1413.2143.7 mm108.7 mm
2026-06-10490.9423.9143.7 mm109.1 mm
2026-06-11505.2434.9143.8 mm109.7 mm
2026-06-12517.2446.1143.8 mm109.9 mm
2026-06-13529.1457.5143.8 mm110.6 mm
2026-06-14541.2469.0143.8 mm111.1 mm
2026-06-15552.6480.9143.8 mm111.7 mm
2026-06-16565.9493.1145.4 mm112.7 mm
2026-06-17579.6505.5145.4 mm113.6 mm
2026-06-18593.8517.8145.4 mm114.6 mm
2026-06-19608.2529.8145.4 mm115.4 mm
2026-06-20623.1541.8145.4 mm116.3 mm
2026-06-21638.1554.1145.4 mm116.9 mm
2026-06-22653.6566.7145.9 mm117.0 mm
2026-06-23669.3579.7147.1 mm117.5 mm
2026-06-24684.5592.7148.3 mm118.2 mm
2026-06-25698.9605.9153.1 mm118.6 mm
2026-06-26713.9619.2153.2 mm118.6 mm
2026-06-27729.5632.5156.8 mm119.1 mm
2026-06-28745.0645.9156.9 mm119.2 mm
2026-06-29761.6659.6158.7 mm119.6 mm
2026-06-30777.0673.2163.8 mm119.8 mm
2026-07-01792.7686.8165.8 mm120.0 mm
2026-07-02806.7700.4167.0 mm120.2 mm
2026-07-03818.5714.8167.6 mm120.2 mm
2026-07-04833.3729.3167.6 mm120.2 mm
2026-07-05848.0743.5167.6 mm120.4 mm
2026-07-06862.3757.8167.6 mm120.4 mm
2026-07-07877.0772.4167.9 mm120.4 mm
2026-07-08890.6787.0167.9 mm120.4 mm
2026-07-09905.4801.1167.9 mm120.6 mm
2026-07-10920.9815.1167.9 mm121.2 mm
2026-07-11936.3828.8167.9 mm121.9 mm
2026-07-12951.5842.8167.9 mm121.9 mm
2026-07-13969.1856.7167.9 mm122.0 mm
2026-07-14986.0870.5167.9 mm122.7 mm
2026-07-151004.6884.3167.9 mm122.9 mm
2026-07-161025.4898.2167.9 mm122.9 mm
2026-07-171047.7912.1167.9 mm123.1 mm
2026-07-181070.8926.2167.9 mm123.1 mm
2026-07-191093.8940.3168.2 mm123.4 mm
2026-07-201117.1954.4168.2 mm123.4 mm
2026-07-211140.7968.6168.4 mm123.5 mm
2026-07-221163.6983.1169.4 mm123.6 mm
2026-07-231182.4998.2169.4 mm123.7 mm
2026-07-241199.81013.2169.4 mm123.8 mm
2026-07-251214.51027.8169.4 mm123.9 mm
2026-07-261230.11042.2169.5 mm124.3 mm
2026-07-271247.21056.8169.5 mm124.5 mm
2026-07-281265.01071.6171.8 mm124.5 mm
2026-07-291282.31086.5171.8 mm124.6 mm
2026-07-301300.01101.5171.8 mm124.6 mm
2026-07-311318.31116.2171.8 mm124.9 mm
2026-08-011336.91131.2171.9 mm125.1 mm
2026-08-021355.21146.1173.6 mm125.3 mm
2026-08-031373.31161.4174.6 mm125.8 mm
2026-08-041391.51176.7174.6 mm126.6 mm
2026-08-051409.31191.7174.6 mm127.2 mm
2026-08-061427.51206.6174.7 mm127.4 mm
2026-08-071445.91221.3174.8 mm127.8 mm
2026-08-081464.51236.1174.8 mm128.2 mm
2026-08-091482.61251.2175.2 mm128.6 mm
2026-08-101500.11266.3175.2 mm128.7 mm
2026-08-111518.91281.4175.2 mm128.9 mm
2026-08-121537.91295.8175.2 mm129.6 mm
2026-08-131555.71310.3177.9 mm130.2 mm
2026-08-141572.21324.8177.9 mm130.5 mm
2026-08-151588.51339.3178.0 mm130.7 mm
2026-08-161604.81353.6178.0 mm131.0 mm
2026-08-171621.11368.0178.2 mm131.0 mm
2026-08-181636.11382.4181.2 mm131.6 mm
2026-08-191651.81397.0181.2 mm132.0 mm
2026-08-201668.11412.2181.2 mm132.1 mm
2026-08-211684.51427.1181.2 mm132.5 mm
2026-08-221702.31441.7181.2 mm133.0 mm
2026-08-231721.11456.0181.4 mm133.5 mm

Forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC

10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record

GDD accumulation
172 GDDvs 127 GDD average
Total rainfall
0.1 mmvs 9.0 mm average

The forecast includes a period of potentially stressful heat. The region's 35°C heat threshold is reached Aug 30–Sep 3.

Sun8/30 38°Cavg 29°C 24°Cavg 18°C +20 GDD 0.0 mm
Mon8/31 37°Cavg 29°C 23°Cavg 18°C +19 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/1 36°Cavg 28°C 19°Cavg 17°C +18 GDD 0.0 mm
Wed9/2 36°Cavg 28°C 19°Cavg 17°C +17 GDD 0.0 mm
Thu9/3 35°Cavg 28°C 19°Cavg 18°C +17 GDD 0.0 mm
Fri9/4 33°Cavg 28°C 18°Cavg 17°C +16 GDD 0.0 mm
Sat9/5 34°Cavg 28°C 21°Cavg 17°C +16 GDD 0.0 mm
Sun9/6 34°Cavg 27°C 22°Cavg 17°C +17 GDD 0.0 mm
Mon9/7 35°Cavg 27°C 22°Cavg 17°C +16 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/8 35°Cavg 27°C 22°Cavg 17°C +17 GDD 0.0 mm

Data and methods

Show data sources and model assumptions

Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.

Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.

This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.

Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed August 23, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.

The Central Sicily model uses a March 15–October 31 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 35°C.