Italy · Multi-region weather view

Central Sicily

Warm inland vineyards across central and western Sicily.

The growing season is long, sunny, and dry, with sustained heat and water stress common.

Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Aug 20, 2026.

Current conditions

Observations through Aug 30, 2026 · 06:00 UTC

Temperature26.6°C

Dew Point14.4°C

Relative Humidity47%

24h Rainfall0.8 mmmodeled IFS total through Aug 29

Vintage explorer

Significantly cooler and significantly drier than normal.

Mean temperature20.4°C

Temperature anomaly+1.2°Cvs 1991-2020

Growing degree days1721base 10°C

Hot days20≥ 35°C

What stood out in 2026

Warm weather can speed ripening and leave grapes with less acidity. Repeated hot days can speed ripening and put vines under stress.

Warmer growing season · High confidence

Mean growing-season temperature was +1.2°C versus the 1991–2020 baseline.

Warm weather can speed ripening and leave grapes with less acidity.

More hot days than usual · High confidence

There were 20 days at or above 35°C—+16 days versus baseline.

Repeated hot days can speed ripening and put vines under stress.

2026 month by month

Replay the 2026 growing season

Closest weather matches

How similar years are calculated

Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 0 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.

Growing-season temperature anomalyCompared with 1991-2020

Growing-season rainfall anomaly

View historical chart data as a table

Year	Temperature anomaly	Rainfall anomaly	Hot days
1991	-1.5°C	-4 mm	0
1992	-1.2°C	+8 mm	0
1993	-0.5°C	-76 mm	1
1994	-0.0°C	-60 mm	0
1995	-1.1°C	-62 mm	0
1996	-1.4°C	+76 mm	0
1997	-1.0°C	+118 mm	0
1998	-0.3°C	-17 mm	4
1999	+0.8°C	-148 mm	5
2000	+0.6°C	-33 mm	11
2001	+0.7°C	-163 mm	0
2002	-0.2°C	-22 mm	3
2003	+0.6°C	+151 mm	9
2004	-0.3°C	-14 mm	1
2005	-0.2°C	+85 mm	3
2006	+0.4°C	-46 mm	6
2007	+0.6°C	-24 mm	14
2008	+0.4°C	-65 mm	2
2009	+0.1°C	+33 mm	2
2010	-0.2°C	+129 mm	1
2011	-0.3°C	-18 mm	0
2012	+0.5°C	+11 mm	5
2013	+0.4°C	-69 mm	1
2014	+0.1°C	-59 mm	0
2015	+0.2°C	+94 mm	1
2016	+0.9°C	-47 mm	1
2017	+1.2°C	-112 mm	16
2018	+0.6°C	+259 mm	2
2019	+0.1°C	+60 mm	2
2020	-0.0°C	+15 mm	0
2021	+0.3°C	+68 mm	7
2022	+0.7°C	-38 mm	0
2023	+0.7°C	-6 mm	11
2024	+2.3°C	-6 mm	34
2025	+0.9°C	+13 mm	11
2026	+1.2°C	-60 mm	20

winter

9.7°C

+1.5°C vs baseline

290 mm rain · +122 mm

spring

13.7°C

+0.5°C vs baseline

176 mm rain · +48 mm

summer

26.2°C

+2.6°C vs baseline

38 mm rain · +3 mm

harvest

26.6°C

+5.9°C vs baseline

3 mm rain · -107 mm

Weather events

1991–present

Climate change

Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.

Compare regions

Observed record

Historical trends, 1991–2025

Growing degree days changed +116.1 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +67.5 to +164.7 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.

How it is measured: Across the March 15–October 31 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.

Growing degree days · annual change from the 1991–2020 average1991–2025

Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.

View annual growing degree days data

Vintage	Growing degree days	Change from 1991–2020
1991	1794 GDD	-343 GDD
1992	1883 GDD	-254 GDD
1993	2026 GDD	-111 GDD
1994	2118 GDD	-19 GDD
1995	1910 GDD	-227 GDD
1996	1817 GDD	-320 GDD
1997	1941 GDD	-196 GDD
1998	2085 GDD	-52 GDD
1999	2323 GDD	+186 GDD
2000	2257 GDD	+120 GDD
2001	2278 GDD	+141 GDD
2002	2096 GDD	-41 GDD
2003	2301 GDD	+164 GDD
2004	2044 GDD	-93 GDD
2005	2087 GDD	-50 GDD
2006	2225 GDD	+88 GDD
2007	2275 GDD	+138 GDD
2008	2225 GDD	+88 GDD
2009	2165 GDD	+28 GDD
2010	2084 GDD	-53 GDD
2011	2064 GDD	-73 GDD
2012	2248 GDD	+111 GDD
2013	2214 GDD	+77 GDD
2014	2156 GDD	+19 GDD
2015	2184 GDD	+47 GDD
2016	2348 GDD	+211 GDD
2017	2395 GDD	+258 GDD
2018	2276 GDD	+139 GDD
2019	2157 GDD	+20 GDD
2020	2132 GDD	-5 GDD
2021	2218 GDD	+81 GDD
2022	2309 GDD	+172 GDD
2023	2294 GDD	+157 GDD
2024	2652 GDD	+516 GDD
2025	2346 GDD	+209 GDD

Growing-season mean temperature: +0.52 °C per decade 95% interval +0.30 to +0.74
Growing degree days: +116.08 GDD per decade 95% interval +67.47 to +164.69
Growing-season precipitation: +15.20 mm per decade 95% interval -5.50 to +35.90
Hot days: +2.60 days per decade 95% interval -0.05 to +5.24
Spring frost days: -0.80 days per decade 95% interval -1.46 to -0.14
Longest dry spell: -3.53 days per decade 95% interval -8.05 to +0.99

Last Updated July 15, 2026

Model ensemble

Projected climate through 2075

Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.

Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.

Period	Weighted median	Weighted central 80%	Models per pathway
2021-2040	+1.1°C	+0.7 to +1.5°C	25
2041-2060	+1.7°C	+1.1 to +2.4°C	25
2061-2075	+2.2°C	+1.4 to +2.9°C	25

How pathways are combined

For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Compare projection measures across regions

Typical year · 1991–2020

When to visit

This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.

Deterministic IFS forecast

Next ten days

Detailed forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · model run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC · retrieved Aug 30, 2026 at 08:22 UTC

Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.

Date	SunAug 30	MonAug 31	TueSep 1	WedSep 2	ThuSep 3	FriSep 4	SatSep 5	SunSep 6	MonSep 7	TueSep 8
High	38°C	37°C	36°C	36°C	35°C	33°C	34°C	34°C	35°C	35°C
Low	24°C	23°C	19°C	19°C	19°C	18°C	21°C	22°C	22°C	22°C
Rain	0.0 mm	0.0 mm	0.0 mm	0.0 mm	0.0 mm	0.0 mm	0.0 mm	0.0 mm	0.0 mm	0.0 mm

Across the typical year: Early August has the warmest median afternoon high (30.6°C); Late January has the coolest (12.0°C). Wet days are most frequent in Early March (34%) and least frequent in Late July (3%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lowsMedians and middle 50% of daily readings

Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

How often a day is wetShare of days with at least 1 mm of rain

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

View all 24 periods as a table

Scroll horizontally to view all columns.

Central Sicily typical weather by half-month, 1991–2020
Period	Afternoon high, median (middle 50%)	Overnight low, median (middle 50%)	Wet-day frequency	Period rain, median (middle 50%)
Jan 1–15	12.7°C (11.2–14.3°C)	3.5°C (1.1–5.7°C)	23%	16.2 mm (7.7–30.5 mm)
Jan 16–31	12.0°C (10.2–13.2°C)	3.5°C (1.4–5.4°C)	33%	30.2 mm (15.3–49.4 mm)
Feb 1–15	12.4°C (10.0–14.2°C)	3.0°C (0.8–5.1°C)	33%	25.8 mm (9.8–38.1 mm)
Feb 16–29	12.9°C (10.9–14.8°C)	3.7°C (1.2–5.6°C)	31%	19.6 mm (7.2–36.3 mm)
Mar 1–15	13.9°C (11.8–16.1°C)	4.4°C (2.8–6.5°C)	34%	24.9 mm (10.4–37.1 mm)
Mar 16–31	15.7°C (13.4–17.4°C)	5.2°C (3.7–7.4°C)	25%	20.6 mm (6.6–27.9 mm)
Apr 1–15	16.8°C (14.8–18.6°C)	6.8°C (5.2–8.6°C)	28%	18.9 mm (12.7–33.1 mm)
Apr 16–30	18.4°C (16.5–20.4°C)	8.5°C (6.6–10.5°C)	30%	25.3 mm (10.5–30.9 mm)
May 1–15	21.3°C (19.4–23.4°C)	10.5°C (8.9–12.2°C)	17%	10.0 mm (2.2–21.6 mm)
May 16–31	23.6°C (21.2–25.8°C)	12.5°C (10.8–14.3°C)	15%	9.4 mm (2.6–16.3 mm)
Jun 1–15	26.2°C (24.3–28.1°C)	14.8°C (13.1–16.4°C)	14%	5.3 mm (1.8–13.3 mm)
Jun 16–30	28.7°C (26.4–30.9°C)	16.7°C (15.1–18.5°C)	9%	3.2 mm (0.3–8.7 mm)
Jul 1–15	30.1°C (28.3–31.9°C)	18.2°C (16.7–19.6°C)	4%	1.3 mm (0.3–2.4 mm)
Jul 16–31	30.6°C (28.9–32.1°C)	18.4°C (17.1–19.8°C)	3%	0.5 mm (0.0–2.5 mm)
Aug 1–15	30.6°C (29.1–32.3°C)	18.9°C (17.8–20.1°C)	8%	2.8 mm (0.2–7.7 mm)
Aug 16–31	30.0°C (28.6–31.8°C)	18.5°C (17.2–19.8°C)	8%	2.8 mm (0.5–7.9 mm)
Sep 1–15	27.1°C (25.8–28.9°C)	16.7°C (15.3–18.4°C)	17%	13.3 mm (4.9–26.3 mm)
Sep 16–30	25.1°C (23.7–27.0°C)	15.2°C (13.7–17.0°C)	24%	15.7 mm (6.0–37.3 mm)
Oct 1–15	23.5°C (21.7–25.3°C)	13.6°C (11.9–15.3°C)	25%	31.8 mm (9.4–40.8 mm)
Oct 16–31	21.4°C (19.5–23.3°C)	12.0°C (9.9–13.7°C)	26%	18.4 mm (6.9–41.8 mm)
Nov 1–15	19.1°C (17.1–20.4°C)	9.7°C (7.6–11.4°C)	29%	22.9 mm (7.6–37.7 mm)
Nov 16–30	16.0°C (14.1–17.7°C)	7.5°C (5.3–9.6°C)	31%	30.6 mm (18.1–43.9 mm)
Dec 1–15	14.2°C (12.6–15.5°C)	5.6°C (3.8–7.5°C)	27%	19.1 mm (12.3–32.4 mm)
Dec 16–31	12.7°C (10.8–14.4°C)	4.3°C (2.3–6.7°C)	31%	21.5 mm (15.9–35.2 mm)

Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.

Historical climatology Last Updated July 15, 2026

Season to date

Growing season heat and rainfall

Mar 15–Aug 30, 2026

Growing degree days1721.1base 10°C

Growing-season rainfall181.4 mmweighted regional total

Cumulative growing degree daysBase 10°C

2026 season1991–2020 average

Cumulative growing-season rainfallRegional weighted mean

2026 season1991–2020 average

View growing-season accumulation data

Date	Season GDD	1991–2020 average GDD	Season rainfall	1991–2020 average rainfall
2026-03-15	0.0	0.8	13.1 mm	1.6 mm
2026-03-16	0.0	2.0	27.9 mm	2.8 mm
2026-03-17	1.6	2.8	32.7 mm	3.6 mm
2026-03-18	1.6	3.7	36.7 mm	4.4 mm
2026-03-19	1.6	4.6	37.2 mm	5.2 mm
2026-03-20	1.6	5.5	42.3 mm	7.2 mm
2026-03-21	1.6	6.6	42.4 mm	8.0 mm
2026-03-22	1.6	8.0	44.4 mm	9.5 mm
2026-03-23	1.6	9.2	45.7 mm	11.1 mm
2026-03-24	1.6	10.4	49.1 mm	13.5 mm
2026-03-25	1.6	11.7	49.1 mm	17.0 mm
2026-03-26	1.6	13.3	49.6 mm	18.3 mm
2026-03-27	1.6	14.6	54.8 mm	20.2 mm
2026-03-28	1.6	15.7	54.9 mm	21.0 mm
2026-03-29	1.6	17.2	55.7 mm	22.3 mm
2026-03-30	1.6	18.6	59.8 mm	23.5 mm
2026-03-31	1.6	20.3	68.4 mm	24.7 mm
2026-04-01	1.6	21.9	75.5 mm	26.8 mm
2026-04-02	1.6	23.3	81.7 mm	29.1 mm
2026-04-03	1.6	24.9	85.3 mm	30.5 mm
2026-04-04	3.5	26.4	88.5 mm	34.6 mm
2026-04-05	5.7	28.4	88.7 mm	36.8 mm
2026-04-06	8.2	30.2	88.7 mm	37.9 mm
2026-04-07	12.7	32.1	88.7 mm	38.7 mm
2026-04-08	16.9	34.2	88.7 mm	39.9 mm
2026-04-09	21.2	36.2	88.7 mm	41.8 mm
2026-04-10	25.8	38.5	88.7 mm	43.2 mm
2026-04-11	31.5	41.3	88.7 mm	44.7 mm
2026-04-12	37.0	43.6	88.7 mm	47.4 mm
2026-04-13	42.6	45.9	88.7 mm	49.4 mm
2026-04-14	48.1	48.2	97.9 mm	50.0 mm
2026-04-15	50.8	50.8	102.5 mm	51.1 mm
2026-04-16	54.8	53.7	111.8 mm	52.5 mm
2026-04-17	60.5	56.3	112.1 mm	54.9 mm
2026-04-18	67.1	58.9	112.6 mm	57.4 mm
2026-04-19	71.7	61.7	112.8 mm	58.4 mm
2026-04-20	76.6	64.6	112.9 mm	59.2 mm
2026-04-21	81.9	67.7	112.9 mm	60.7 mm
2026-04-22	88.9	70.6	113.4 mm	62.9 mm
2026-04-23	90.6	74.0	118.1 mm	63.5 mm
2026-04-24	92.3	77.7	118.2 mm	64.9 mm
2026-04-25	94.9	81.7	118.2 mm	66.2 mm
2026-04-26	99.1	86.0	118.2 mm	69.0 mm
2026-04-27	103.7	90.4	118.2 mm	71.4 mm
2026-04-28	110.2	95.2	118.2 mm	72.8 mm
2026-04-29	116.9	99.9	118.3 mm	73.6 mm
2026-04-30	124.7	104.7	118.3 mm	74.8 mm
2026-05-01	128.3	109.5	119.5 mm	75.3 mm
2026-05-02	130.2	114.6	119.6 mm	76.1 mm
2026-05-03	132.8	120.3	119.6 mm	78.1 mm
2026-05-04	137.4	126.0	120.8 mm	79.2 mm
2026-05-05	143.5	131.4	120.8 mm	80.1 mm
2026-05-06	150.9	136.6	121.3 mm	81.1 mm
2026-05-07	157.2	142.0	121.3 mm	81.7 mm
2026-05-08	165.5	147.5	121.7 mm	82.3 mm
2026-05-09	174.1	153.5	121.8 mm	82.4 mm
2026-05-10	183.3	160.0	121.9 mm	83.0 mm
2026-05-11	193.4	166.9	121.9 mm	83.9 mm
2026-05-12	203.4	174.0	121.9 mm	84.7 mm
2026-05-13	212.0	181.0	121.9 mm	85.3 mm
2026-05-14	217.8	188.1	121.9 mm	86.4 mm
2026-05-15	223.9	195.0	123.4 mm	87.4 mm
2026-05-16	229.8	201.6	125.0 mm	88.4 mm
2026-05-17	234.4	208.7	125.0 mm	90.6 mm
2026-05-18	238.9	216.1	125.4 mm	91.1 mm
2026-05-19	243.2	223.4	128.2 mm	92.0 mm
2026-05-20	249.5	230.8	128.2 mm	92.7 mm
2026-05-21	257.0	238.3	128.2 mm	93.0 mm
2026-05-22	264.9	246.2	128.2 mm	93.8 mm
2026-05-23	274.8	254.1	128.2 mm	94.3 mm
2026-05-24	283.8	262.3	132.5 mm	95.3 mm
2026-05-25	293.1	270.6	141.0 mm	96.7 mm
2026-05-26	303.4	279.3	141.0 mm	98.0 mm
2026-05-27	314.9	288.2	141.2 mm	99.2 mm
2026-05-28	328.0	297.3	141.3 mm	100.0 mm
2026-05-29	341.2	306.2	142.7 mm	100.3 mm
2026-05-30	352.1	315.0	142.8 mm	101.1 mm
2026-05-31	363.3	324.2	143.2 mm	101.7 mm
2026-06-01	374.2	333.2	143.2 mm	102.5 mm
2026-06-02	384.9	342.5	143.2 mm	103.6 mm
2026-06-03	396.8	351.7	143.3 mm	104.0 mm
2026-06-04	409.2	361.3	143.3 mm	105.0 mm
2026-06-05	423.0	371.2	143.3 mm	105.9 mm
2026-06-06	437.2	381.2	143.3 mm	106.2 mm
2026-06-07	451.6	391.8	143.3 mm	107.1 mm
2026-06-08	464.1	402.7	143.7 mm	107.3 mm
2026-06-09	477.1	413.2	143.7 mm	108.7 mm
2026-06-10	490.9	423.9	143.7 mm	109.1 mm
2026-06-11	505.2	434.9	143.8 mm	109.7 mm
2026-06-12	517.2	446.1	143.8 mm	109.9 mm
2026-06-13	529.1	457.5	143.8 mm	110.6 mm
2026-06-14	541.2	469.0	143.8 mm	111.1 mm
2026-06-15	552.6	480.9	143.8 mm	111.7 mm
2026-06-16	565.9	493.1	145.4 mm	112.7 mm
2026-06-17	579.6	505.5	145.4 mm	113.6 mm
2026-06-18	593.8	517.8	145.4 mm	114.6 mm
2026-06-19	608.2	529.8	145.4 mm	115.4 mm
2026-06-20	623.1	541.8	145.4 mm	116.3 mm
2026-06-21	638.1	554.1	145.4 mm	116.9 mm
2026-06-22	653.6	566.7	145.9 mm	117.0 mm
2026-06-23	669.3	579.7	147.1 mm	117.5 mm
2026-06-24	684.5	592.7	148.3 mm	118.2 mm
2026-06-25	698.9	605.9	153.1 mm	118.6 mm
2026-06-26	713.9	619.2	153.2 mm	118.6 mm
2026-06-27	729.5	632.5	156.8 mm	119.1 mm
2026-06-28	745.0	645.9	156.9 mm	119.2 mm
2026-06-29	761.6	659.6	158.7 mm	119.6 mm
2026-06-30	777.0	673.2	163.8 mm	119.8 mm
2026-07-01	792.7	686.8	165.8 mm	120.0 mm
2026-07-02	806.7	700.4	167.0 mm	120.2 mm
2026-07-03	818.5	714.8	167.6 mm	120.2 mm
2026-07-04	833.3	729.3	167.6 mm	120.2 mm
2026-07-05	848.0	743.5	167.6 mm	120.4 mm
2026-07-06	862.3	757.8	167.6 mm	120.4 mm
2026-07-07	877.0	772.4	167.9 mm	120.4 mm
2026-07-08	890.6	787.0	167.9 mm	120.4 mm
2026-07-09	905.4	801.1	167.9 mm	120.6 mm
2026-07-10	920.9	815.1	167.9 mm	121.2 mm
2026-07-11	936.3	828.8	167.9 mm	121.9 mm
2026-07-12	951.5	842.8	167.9 mm	121.9 mm
2026-07-13	969.1	856.7	167.9 mm	122.0 mm
2026-07-14	986.0	870.5	167.9 mm	122.7 mm
2026-07-15	1004.6	884.3	167.9 mm	122.9 mm
2026-07-16	1025.4	898.2	167.9 mm	122.9 mm
2026-07-17	1047.7	912.1	167.9 mm	123.1 mm
2026-07-18	1070.8	926.2	167.9 mm	123.1 mm
2026-07-19	1093.8	940.3	168.2 mm	123.4 mm
2026-07-20	1117.1	954.4	168.2 mm	123.4 mm
2026-07-21	1140.7	968.6	168.4 mm	123.5 mm
2026-07-22	1163.6	983.1	169.4 mm	123.6 mm
2026-07-23	1182.4	998.2	169.4 mm	123.7 mm
2026-07-24	1199.8	1013.2	169.4 mm	123.8 mm
2026-07-25	1214.5	1027.8	169.4 mm	123.9 mm
2026-07-26	1230.1	1042.2	169.5 mm	124.3 mm
2026-07-27	1247.2	1056.8	169.5 mm	124.5 mm
2026-07-28	1265.0	1071.6	171.8 mm	124.5 mm
2026-07-29	1282.3	1086.5	171.8 mm	124.6 mm
2026-07-30	1300.0	1101.5	171.8 mm	124.6 mm
2026-07-31	1318.3	1116.2	171.8 mm	124.9 mm
2026-08-01	1336.9	1131.2	171.9 mm	125.1 mm
2026-08-02	1355.2	1146.1	173.6 mm	125.3 mm
2026-08-03	1373.3	1161.4	174.6 mm	125.8 mm
2026-08-04	1391.5	1176.7	174.6 mm	126.6 mm
2026-08-05	1409.3	1191.7	174.6 mm	127.2 mm
2026-08-06	1427.5	1206.6	174.7 mm	127.4 mm
2026-08-07	1445.9	1221.3	174.8 mm	127.8 mm
2026-08-08	1464.5	1236.1	174.8 mm	128.2 mm
2026-08-09	1482.6	1251.2	175.2 mm	128.6 mm
2026-08-10	1500.1	1266.3	175.2 mm	128.7 mm
2026-08-11	1518.9	1281.4	175.2 mm	128.9 mm
2026-08-12	1537.9	1295.8	175.2 mm	129.6 mm
2026-08-13	1555.7	1310.3	177.9 mm	130.2 mm
2026-08-14	1572.2	1324.8	177.9 mm	130.5 mm
2026-08-15	1588.5	1339.3	178.0 mm	130.7 mm
2026-08-16	1604.8	1353.6	178.0 mm	131.0 mm
2026-08-17	1621.1	1368.0	178.2 mm	131.0 mm
2026-08-18	1636.1	1382.4	181.2 mm	131.6 mm
2026-08-19	1651.8	1397.0	181.2 mm	132.0 mm
2026-08-20	1668.1	1412.2	181.2 mm	132.1 mm
2026-08-21	1684.5	1427.1	181.2 mm	132.5 mm
2026-08-22	1702.3	1441.7	181.2 mm	133.0 mm
2026-08-23	1721.1	1456.0	181.4 mm	133.5 mm

Forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC

10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record

GDD accumulation: 172 GDDvs 127 GDD average
Total rainfall: 0.1 mmvs 9.0 mm average

The forecast includes a period of potentially stressful heat. The region's 35°C heat threshold is reached Aug 30–Sep 3.

Sun8/30 38°Cavg 29°C 24°Cavg 18°C +20 GDD 0.0 mm

Mon8/31 37°Cavg 29°C 23°Cavg 18°C +19 GDD 0.0 mm

Tue9/1 36°Cavg 28°C 19°Cavg 17°C +18 GDD 0.0 mm

Wed9/2 36°Cavg 28°C 19°Cavg 17°C +17 GDD 0.0 mm

Thu9/3 35°Cavg 28°C 19°Cavg 18°C +17 GDD 0.0 mm

Fri9/4 33°Cavg 28°C 18°Cavg 17°C +16 GDD 0.0 mm

Sat9/5 34°Cavg 28°C 21°Cavg 17°C +16 GDD 0.0 mm

Sun9/6 34°Cavg 27°C 22°Cavg 17°C +17 GDD 0.0 mm

Mon9/7 35°Cavg 27°C 22°Cavg 17°C +16 GDD 0.0 mm

Tue9/8 35°Cavg 27°C 22°Cavg 17°C +17 GDD 0.0 mm

Data and methods

Show data sources and model assumptions

Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.

Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.

This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.

Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed August 23, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.

The Central Sicily model uses a March 15–October 31 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 35°C.