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Italy · Multi-region weather view

Umbria & Marche

Central Italian vineyards spanning inland Umbria and Adriatic-facing Marche.

The Apennines divide warmer inland basins from cooler, more humid slopes toward the sea.

Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Aug 20, 2026.

Current conditions

Observations through Aug 30, 2026 · 06:00 UTC

Temperature22.7°C
Dew Point18.0°C
Relative Humidity75%
24h Rainfall0.6 mmmodeled IFS total through Aug 29

Vintage explorer

Compare this vintage →

Moderately warmer and significantly drier than normal.

Mean temperature19.1°C
Temperature anomaly+0.6°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days2112base 10°C
Hot days3≥ 35°C

What stood out in 2011

Less rain often lowers disease pressure, but vines may depend more on stored soil water or irrigation. A freeze after budbreak can damage new growth and reduce the crop.

Drier than baseline · Moderate confidence

Growing-season precipitation was 114 mm below the 1991–2020 baseline.

Less rain often lowers disease pressure, but vines may depend more on stored soil water or irrigation.

Spring freeze recorded · Moderate confidence

The regional record had 2 spring day(s) at or below -2°C.

A freeze after budbreak can damage new growth and reduce the crop.

How unusual was 2011?

The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.

Growing-season temperature

11th warmest of 35 vintages Warmer than 24 of 34 other vintages 19.1°C

Growing-season rainfall

7th driest of 35 vintages Drier than 28 of 34 other vintages 369.2 mm

Heat accumulation

11th highest of 35 vintages Higher than 24 of 34 other vintages 2113 GDD

Hot days

10th most of 35 vintages More than 21 of 34 other vintages 3 days

2011 month by month

Compared with 1991–2020

Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.

Frost watch Growing season Harvest window
  1. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2011 23 GDD
    Typical 27 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 127.5 mm
    Typical 75.3 mm
    2011 freezing days
    4
    Typical
    2.3

    More freezing days than the typical month.

  2. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2011 120 GDD
    Typical 86 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 30.8 mm
    Typical 79.3 mm
    2011 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.2

    Heat accumulation ran ahead of the typical month.

  3. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2011 222 GDD
    Typical 219 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 50.2 mm
    Typical 72.9 mm
    2011 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.0

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  4. 1–30
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2011 357 GDD
    Typical 346 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 49.4 mm
    Typical 52.7 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  5. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2011 409 GDD
    Typical 440 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 95.4 mm
    Typical 37.1 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

  6. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2011 456 GDD
    Typical 441 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 7.3 mm
    Typical 46.5 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

  7. 1–30
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2011 380 GDD
    Typical 289 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 30.9 mm
    Typical 75.6 mm

    Heat accumulation ran ahead of the typical month.

  8. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2011 146 GDD
    Typical 169 GDD

    Rainfall

    2011 52.7 mm
    Typical 77.7 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

View milestone calendar data as a table
Month2011 GDDTypical GDD2011 rainfallTypical rainfall2011 freezing daysTypical freezing days
March 2011 23 GDD 27 GDD 127.5 mm 75.3 mm 42.3
April 2011 120 GDD 86 GDD 30.8 mm 79.3 mm 00.2
May 2011 222 GDD 219 GDD 50.2 mm 72.9 mm 00.0
June 2011 357 GDD 346 GDD 49.4 mm 52.7 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
July 2011 409 GDD 440 GDD 95.4 mm 37.1 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
August 2011 456 GDD 441 GDD 7.3 mm 46.5 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
September 2011 380 GDD 289 GDD 30.9 mm 75.6 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
October 2011 146 GDD 169 GDD 52.7 mm 77.7 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
Calendar data and method

Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.

Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.

Replay the 2011 growing season

231 daily regional observations

Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.

Replay data and method

Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Jul 14, 2026.

Closest weather matches

These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.

  1. Closest match

    2001

    Most alike in Hot-day count and Growing-season precipitation.

    Hot-day count
    the same: 0 days
    Growing-season precipitation
    less rain: 9.5 mm

    Largest difference: Spring frost exposure — fewer frost-exposure days

    View 2001 →

  2. Second closest

    2021

    Most alike in Growing degree days and Growing-season precipitation.

    Growing degree days
    lower: 32 GDD
    Growing-season precipitation
    less rain: 19.0 mm

    Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — more rain

    View 2021 →

  3. Third closest

    2008

    Most alike in Growing degree days and Growing-season mean temperature.

    Growing degree days
    lower: 44 GDD
    Growing-season mean temperature
    cooler: 0.3°C

    Largest difference: Growing-season precipitation — more rain

    View 2008 →
How similar years are calculated

Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.

Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Hot-day count (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%); Spring frost exposure (10%).

Calculated distances: 2001 0.595; 2021 0.759; 2008 0.868.

Growing-season temperature anomalyCompared with 1991-2020
Temperature anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 A line above zero indicates a warmer growing season than the 1991–2020 baseline. Select a point to inspect that vintage. +2.2°C −2.2°C 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
Growing-season rainfall anomaly
Rainfall anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 Bars show millimeters above or below the 1991–2020 growing-season baseline. Select a bar to inspect that vintage. +240 mm −240 mm 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
View historical chart data as a table
YearTemperature anomalyRainfall anomalyHot days
1991-1.4°C+53 mm0
1992-0.8°C+52 mm0
1993-0.2°C-124 mm0
1994+0.1°C-88 mm1
1995-1.4°C-13 mm0
1996-1.1°C+114 mm0
1997-0.7°C-20 mm0
1998+0.1°C-24 mm2
1999+0.1°C+41 mm1
2000+0.3°C-42 mm1
2001+0.3°C-123 mm3
2002-0.3°C+107 mm1
2003+1.0°C-125 mm9
2004-0.0°C+10 mm0
2005-0.5°C+65 mm2
2006-0.1°C-78 mm0
2007+0.4°C-83 mm9
2008+0.2°C+4 mm1
2009+0.4°C+36 mm2
2010-0.5°C+64 mm3
2011+0.6°C-114 mm3
2012+1.3°C-3 mm11
2013-0.3°C+56 mm3
2014-0.5°C+133 mm0
2015+0.7°C+50 mm3
2016-0.2°C+154 mm0
2017+0.9°C-160 mm7
2018+0.8°C+15 mm0
2019+0.7°C-2 mm7
2020+0.2°C+44 mm0
2021+0.1°C-133 mm4
2022+1.4°C-128 mm5
2023+1.0°C+42 mm5
2024+1.8°C+74 mm14
2025+0.8°C-7 mm2
2026+1.9°C-233 mm16

winter

5.7°C

-0.3°C vs baseline

206 mm rain · +3 mm

spring

13.2°C

+0.3°C vs baseline

208 mm rain · -19 mm

summer

23.3°C

-0.1°C vs baseline

152 mm rain · +16 mm

harvest

20.2°C

+1.3°C vs baseline

85 mm rain · -96 mm

Weather events

Periods that crossed one of the published regional thresholds, shown in date order.

  1. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -3.5°C
    Duration
    4 days
    Severe-freeze days
    2 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  2. Dry spell

    Duration
    16 days
    Total rain
    2.1 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  3. Dry spell

    Duration
    14 days
    Total rain
    1.1 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  4. Dry spell

    Duration
    25 days
    Total rain
    2.2 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  5. Heat episode

    Peak temperature
    35.1°C
    Duration
    2 days
    Heat accumulation
    35 GDD
How events are detected

Weather & Vines combined regional series; method event-timeline-v2-2026-07, rules umbria-catalog-v1-2026-07. Source last updated Jul 14, 2026, calculated Aug 29, 2026. Each configured point must have at least 95.0% coverage.

1991–present

Climate change

Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.

Compare regions

Observed record

Historical trends, 1991–2025

Growing degree days changed +107.4 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +74.3 to +140.6 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.

How it is measured: Across the March 15–October 31 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.

Growing degree days · annual change from the 1991–2020 average1991–2025

Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.

View annual growing degree days data
VintageGrowing degree daysChange from 1991–2020
19911713 GDD-297 GDD
19921835 GDD-175 GDD
19931969 GDD-41 GDD
19942020 GDD+10 GDD
19951736 GDD-274 GDD
19961752 GDD-258 GDD
19971888 GDD-122 GDD
19982041 GDD+32 GDD
19992036 GDD+26 GDD
20002070 GDD+61 GDD
20012069 GDD+59 GDD
20021945 GDD-65 GDD
20032277 GDD+268 GDD
20041990 GDD-20 GDD
20051872 GDD-138 GDD
20061985 GDD-25 GDD
20072102 GDD+93 GDD
20082069 GDD+59 GDD
20092109 GDD+100 GDD
20101885 GDD-125 GDD
20112113 GDD+103 GDD
20122299 GDD+289 GDD
20131937 GDD-73 GDD
20141870 GDD-140 GDD
20152153 GDD+143 GDD
20161950 GDD-60 GDD
20172195 GDD+185 GDD
20182198 GDD+189 GDD
20192151 GDD+142 GDD
20202063 GDD+54 GDD
20212081 GDD+71 GDD
20222318 GDD+308 GDD
20232229 GDD+219 GDD
20242397 GDD+387 GDD
20252179 GDD+170 GDD
Growing-season mean temperature
+0.50 °C per decade 95% interval +0.35 to +0.66
Growing degree days
+107.44 GDD per decade 95% interval +74.28 to +140.59
Growing-season precipitation
+3.64 mm per decade 95% interval -16.32 to +23.59
Hot days
+1.55 days per decade 95% interval +0.82 to +2.28
Spring frost days
-0.84 days per decade 95% interval -1.79 to +0.12
Longest dry spell
+0.46 days per decade 95% interval -0.95 to +1.87

Last Updated July 15, 2026

Model ensemble

Projected climate through 2075

Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.

Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.

PeriodWeighted medianWeighted central 80%Models per pathway
2021-2040+1.2°C+0.9 to +1.6°C25
2041-2060+1.8°C+1.3 to +2.7°C25
2061-2075+2.2°C+1.8 to +3.5°C25
How pathways are combined

For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Compare projection measures across regions

Typical year · 1991–2020

When to visit

This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.

Deterministic IFS forecast

Next ten days

Detailed forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · model run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC · retrieved Aug 30, 2026 at 08:22 UTC

Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.

DateSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTue
High 31°C 29°C 30°C 30°C 30°C 32°C 32°C 32°C 32°C 31°C
Low 20°C 19°C 18°C 19°C 18°C 17°C 21°C 21°C 22°C 21°C
Rain 0.6 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm

Across the typical year: Late July has the warmest median afternoon high (30.2°C); Late January has the coolest (8.7°C). Wet days are most frequent in Late November (45%) and least frequent in Late July (20%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lowsMedians and middle 50% of daily readings

Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lows for Umbria & Marche Median daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 24 early and late-month periods under the 1991–2020 baseline. Neutral bands show the 25th to 75th percentile. -5°C5°C15°C25°C35°C JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
How often a day is wetShare of days with at least 1 mm of rain

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Wet-day frequency through the typical year for Umbria & Marche The fraction of days receiving at least one millimeter of rain in each early and late-month period under the 1991–2020 baseline. 0%25%50%75%100% JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
View all 24 periods as a table

Scroll horizontally to view all columns.

Umbria & Marche typical weather by half-month, 1991–2020
PeriodAfternoon high, median (middle 50%)Overnight low, median (middle 50%)Wet-day frequencyPeriod rain, median (middle 50%)
Jan 1–159.5°C (7.3–11.2°C)2.4°C (0.1–4.5°C)32%25.5 mm (8.8–35.7 mm)
Jan 16–318.7°C (6.7–10.5°C)1.8°C (-0.6–4.1°C)36%31.9 mm (10.2–46.7 mm)
Feb 1–1510.3°C (7.3–12.1°C)1.6°C (-0.6–4.4°C)35%36.7 mm (12.9–54.4 mm)
Feb 16–2911.1°C (8.3–13.3°C)2.4°C (-0.1–5.0°C)40%23.6 mm (14.4–42.8 mm)
Mar 1–1513.1°C (10.5–15.2°C)4.3°C (2.1–6.3°C)35%29.3 mm (19.0–49.1 mm)
Mar 16–3114.9°C (11.8–17.3°C)5.5°C (3.4–7.7°C)36%42.6 mm (22.2–57.9 mm)
Apr 1–1516.3°C (13.9–18.4°C)7.2°C (5.4–8.9°C)42%40.9 mm (20.9–54.1 mm)
Apr 16–3018.2°C (15.8–20.5°C)9.3°C (7.5–11.0°C)43%36.9 mm (28.4–53.0 mm)
May 1–1520.6°C (18.6–23.1°C)11.5°C (9.9–13.1°C)43%32.9 mm (17.6–57.6 mm)
May 16–3123.2°C (20.1–25.5°C)13.2°C (11.5–14.9°C)34%27.3 mm (21.4–43.5 mm)
Jun 1–1525.5°C (22.9–28.0°C)15.6°C (13.9–17.3°C)38%27.6 mm (18.8–42.2 mm)
Jun 16–3028.2°C (25.4–30.6°C)17.5°C (15.4–19.2°C)23%15.5 mm (8.5–28.0 mm)
Jul 1–1529.5°C (27.0–31.4°C)18.9°C (17.1–20.1°C)22%14.9 mm (6.5–33.1 mm)
Jul 16–3130.2°C (27.9–32.1°C)19.1°C (17.6–20.7°C)20%13.2 mm (7.4–19.7 mm)
Aug 1–1530.1°C (28.2–32.2°C)19.3°C (17.8–20.7°C)27%13.5 mm (7.5–32.9 mm)
Aug 16–3129.3°C (27.2–31.8°C)18.6°C (17.1–19.9°C)25%24.2 mm (10.1–37.8 mm)
Sep 1–1525.8°C (23.6–27.8°C)15.8°C (14.2–17.4°C)35%33.4 mm (21.0–46.1 mm)
Sep 16–3023.3°C (21.1–25.5°C)14.0°C (11.8–16.0°C)37%30.6 mm (23.8–48.6 mm)
Oct 1–1521.0°C (19.1–23.0°C)12.5°C (10.6–14.1°C)39%32.3 mm (22.9–61.4 mm)
Oct 16–3118.5°C (16.6–20.4°C)10.1°C (7.9–12.3°C)32%32.4 mm (17.6–49.1 mm)
Nov 1–1515.9°C (14.0–17.5°C)8.6°C (6.5–10.6°C)42%44.7 mm (24.6–62.7 mm)
Nov 16–3012.5°C (10.1–14.5°C)5.9°C (3.1–8.2°C)45%44.8 mm (21.6–54.5 mm)
Dec 1–1510.7°C (8.9–12.3°C)4.1°C (1.7–6.3°C)41%38.3 mm (18.2–63.7 mm)
Dec 16–319.1°C (7.1–11.2°C)2.2°C (-0.2–4.8°C)36%37.8 mm (27.3–47.3 mm)

Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.

Historical climatology Last Updated July 15, 2026

Season to date

Growing season heat and rainfall

Mar 15–Aug 30, 2026

Growing degree days1726.4base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall250.3 mmweighted regional total
Cumulative growing degree daysBase 10°C

2026 season1991–2020 average

Growing degree days accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily mean temperature above 10 degrees Celsius from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 1726 GDD 0 Mar ’26AprMayJunJulAug
Cumulative growing-season rainfallRegional weighted mean

2026 season1991–2020 average

Rainfall accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily rainfall in millimeters from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 313 mm 0 Mar ’26AprMayJunJulAug
View growing-season accumulation data
DateSeason GDD1991–2020 average GDDSeason rainfall1991–2020 average rainfall
2026-03-151.10.71.7 mm1.1 mm
2026-03-163.91.63.4 mm4.3 mm
2026-03-174.32.63.7 mm5.4 mm
2026-03-184.33.612.3 mm7.0 mm
2026-03-194.34.712.3 mm9.3 mm
2026-03-204.35.812.3 mm11.1 mm
2026-03-214.36.912.4 mm12.6 mm
2026-03-224.38.313.6 mm14.0 mm
2026-03-234.39.414.8 mm17.3 mm
2026-03-244.510.714.9 mm21.1 mm
2026-03-255.211.915.0 mm25.3 mm
2026-03-265.213.340.1 mm28.6 mm
2026-03-275.214.153.4 mm32.3 mm
2026-03-285.215.053.4 mm34.9 mm
2026-03-295.216.353.4 mm36.8 mm
2026-03-305.218.054.8 mm39.0 mm
2026-03-315.219.960.0 mm40.9 mm
2026-04-015.221.568.3 mm42.4 mm
2026-04-025.223.173.1 mm44.6 mm
2026-04-037.325.075.8 mm46.1 mm
2026-04-049.227.275.8 mm49.9 mm
2026-04-0513.429.275.8 mm53.0 mm
2026-04-0618.931.275.8 mm55.1 mm
2026-04-0725.333.475.8 mm56.0 mm
2026-04-0830.835.475.8 mm59.3 mm
2026-04-0935.237.275.8 mm62.7 mm
2026-04-1039.639.275.8 mm66.8 mm
2026-04-1144.841.175.8 mm70.8 mm
2026-04-1249.143.475.9 mm74.4 mm
2026-04-1354.345.781.5 mm76.6 mm
2026-04-1459.447.785.2 mm79.0 mm
2026-04-1564.149.988.9 mm80.9 mm
2026-04-1670.752.489.2 mm84.5 mm
2026-04-1777.354.889.2 mm87.7 mm
2026-04-1883.557.089.2 mm91.1 mm
2026-04-1989.759.990.6 mm93.6 mm
2026-04-2095.862.892.3 mm96.5 mm
2026-04-2199.766.1102.8 mm99.9 mm
2026-04-22101.969.9104.0 mm101.8 mm
2026-04-23103.473.8104.0 mm103.8 mm
2026-04-24107.377.8104.0 mm106.2 mm
2026-04-25113.082.0104.0 mm107.5 mm
2026-04-26119.586.6104.0 mm108.4 mm
2026-04-27126.691.4104.1 mm111.2 mm
2026-04-28134.096.1104.2 mm114.4 mm
2026-04-29140.6100.8104.2 mm116.7 mm
2026-04-30143.4105.6104.7 mm120.3 mm
2026-05-01145.3111.0104.7 mm122.6 mm
2026-05-02148.7116.5104.7 mm125.5 mm
2026-05-03154.4122.2104.7 mm128.3 mm
2026-05-04161.0127.8104.8 mm131.0 mm
2026-05-05166.4133.0109.1 mm134.5 mm
2026-05-06173.8138.1111.5 mm137.8 mm
2026-05-07181.4143.6114.9 mm141.0 mm
2026-05-08188.0149.6115.1 mm143.1 mm
2026-05-09195.0155.8115.1 mm144.7 mm
2026-05-10201.1162.5125.6 mm146.0 mm
2026-05-11208.9169.6127.9 mm147.7 mm
2026-05-12215.9176.8129.2 mm151.6 mm
2026-05-13220.2183.8130.9 mm154.6 mm
2026-05-14225.8190.9131.0 mm156.0 mm
2026-05-15230.6197.5141.9 mm159.5 mm
2026-05-16232.0203.8156.9 mm162.4 mm
2026-05-17235.7210.8157.1 mm164.2 mm
2026-05-18240.8217.9157.6 mm166.2 mm
2026-05-19246.5225.1158.0 mm168.5 mm
2026-05-20253.6232.1158.1 mm171.7 mm
2026-05-21261.5239.3158.2 mm174.5 mm
2026-05-22269.5246.8158.2 mm176.9 mm
2026-05-23278.1254.8158.2 mm179.6 mm
2026-05-24288.1263.2158.2 mm181.0 mm
2026-05-25299.6271.8158.2 mm182.0 mm
2026-05-26312.8280.5158.2 mm183.6 mm
2026-05-27327.1289.6158.2 mm185.2 mm
2026-05-28341.6298.4159.1 mm187.4 mm
2026-05-29354.1306.9159.2 mm190.3 mm
2026-05-30365.5315.7159.2 mm191.4 mm
2026-05-31378.9324.6160.1 mm193.2 mm
2026-06-01390.6333.5163.0 mm196.7 mm
2026-06-02402.3343.0163.8 mm199.5 mm
2026-06-03412.0352.8174.2 mm201.7 mm
2026-06-04421.9362.6174.2 mm203.1 mm
2026-06-05431.9372.8175.9 mm205.0 mm
2026-06-06442.5382.8176.5 mm207.1 mm
2026-06-07453.9393.0176.5 mm208.9 mm
2026-06-08466.5403.6176.5 mm212.5 mm
2026-06-09480.0414.4176.5 mm214.2 mm
2026-06-10494.4425.5176.8 mm215.4 mm
2026-06-11505.1436.9179.4 mm217.5 mm
2026-06-12515.0447.7179.4 mm220.4 mm
2026-06-13526.6458.7179.4 mm222.2 mm
2026-06-14541.2469.8179.4 mm224.2 mm
2026-06-15555.3481.2179.4 mm226.1 mm
2026-06-16568.8493.1179.6 mm227.6 mm
2026-06-17583.3505.1179.6 mm229.0 mm
2026-06-18599.1516.8179.6 mm230.1 mm
2026-06-19615.5528.8179.7 mm231.5 mm
2026-06-20632.7540.8179.7 mm234.1 mm
2026-06-21649.5553.1179.8 mm236.0 mm
2026-06-22666.5565.9180.2 mm237.3 mm
2026-06-23683.7578.9180.3 mm238.0 mm
2026-06-24700.8591.7180.5 mm239.2 mm
2026-06-25717.6604.5180.6 mm240.6 mm
2026-06-26734.8617.3180.6 mm241.4 mm
2026-06-27752.3630.6180.6 mm242.2 mm
2026-06-28770.4644.0180.6 mm243.7 mm
2026-06-29789.6657.3180.7 mm244.7 mm
2026-06-30807.3670.7181.4 mm245.9 mm
2026-07-01824.9684.4182.8 mm246.5 mm
2026-07-02838.1698.5194.0 mm246.9 mm
2026-07-03853.2712.6194.0 mm247.6 mm
2026-07-04868.1727.0194.0 mm248.4 mm
2026-07-05882.9741.2194.0 mm249.8 mm
2026-07-06898.7755.4194.5 mm251.5 mm
2026-07-07914.4769.8194.5 mm252.3 mm
2026-07-08932.0783.9194.5 mm253.3 mm
2026-07-09949.4797.4194.5 mm255.0 mm
2026-07-10965.8810.6194.5 mm257.1 mm
2026-07-11983.5824.0195.0 mm258.4 mm
2026-07-12999.9837.5195.2 mm259.4 mm
2026-07-131017.0851.2195.2 mm260.3 mm
2026-07-141036.1865.0195.2 mm261.6 mm
2026-07-151054.8878.3195.2 mm264.3 mm
2026-07-161072.6892.0195.3 mm264.9 mm
2026-07-171092.8905.9195.4 mm265.4 mm
2026-07-181112.1920.0195.6 mm266.1 mm
2026-07-191131.1934.3195.7 mm266.9 mm
2026-07-201149.3949.0195.7 mm267.7 mm
2026-07-211165.8963.8215.5 mm268.6 mm
2026-07-221179.0978.5220.7 mm269.8 mm
2026-07-231192.4993.2221.4 mm271.0 mm
2026-07-241205.41008.4222.0 mm273.3 mm
2026-07-251218.51022.8222.0 mm274.9 mm
2026-07-261231.71037.1233.7 mm276.0 mm
2026-07-271246.31051.6233.9 mm277.6 mm
2026-07-281262.11066.6233.9 mm278.8 mm
2026-07-291278.61081.4233.9 mm280.2 mm
2026-07-301296.11096.1233.9 mm282.2 mm
2026-07-311314.61110.8233.9 mm283.0 mm
2026-08-011333.31125.5233.9 mm283.8 mm
2026-08-021352.31140.7234.5 mm284.3 mm
2026-08-031370.81156.1234.6 mm285.7 mm
2026-08-041390.31171.1234.8 mm288.1 mm
2026-08-051409.81186.0235.0 mm289.3 mm
2026-08-061429.51200.8235.0 mm290.7 mm
2026-08-071448.91215.7236.0 mm291.5 mm
2026-08-081467.21230.8236.8 mm292.3 mm
2026-08-091484.91245.5236.8 mm293.9 mm
2026-08-101503.41260.2236.9 mm296.6 mm
2026-08-111522.81274.4237.9 mm298.1 mm
2026-08-121541.61288.4239.0 mm299.2 mm
2026-08-131559.41302.6239.0 mm300.4 mm
2026-08-141576.21316.8239.0 mm301.8 mm
2026-08-151592.51330.8239.0 mm303.9 mm
2026-08-161609.61344.6239.1 mm304.4 mm
2026-08-171626.21358.5242.1 mm304.8 mm
2026-08-181641.61372.8242.4 mm305.6 mm
2026-08-191659.51387.3242.4 mm306.8 mm
2026-08-201678.41401.9242.8 mm307.8 mm
2026-08-211694.51416.4249.2 mm309.8 mm
2026-08-221711.11430.5250.0 mm311.6 mm
2026-08-231726.41444.6250.3 mm312.7 mm

Forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC

10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record

GDD accumulation
147 GDDvs 112 GDD average
Total rainfall
0.6 mmvs 25.0 mm average

No unusually hot or wet period stands out in the short-range forecast.

Sun8/30 31°Cavg 28°C 20°Cavg 17°C +15 GDD 0.6 mm
Mon8/31 29°Cavg 27°C 19°Cavg 17°C +14 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/1 30°Cavg 27°C 18°Cavg 16°C +14 GDD 0.0 mm
Wed9/2 30°Cavg 26°C 19°Cavg 16°C +14 GDD 0.0 mm
Thu9/3 30°Cavg 26°C 18°Cavg 16°C +14 GDD 0.0 mm
Fri9/4 32°Cavg 26°C 17°Cavg 17°C +15 GDD 0.0 mm
Sat9/5 32°Cavg 25°C 21°Cavg 16°C +16 GDD 0.0 mm
Sun9/6 32°Cavg 26°C 21°Cavg 15°C +15 GDD 0.0 mm
Mon9/7 32°Cavg 26°C 22°Cavg 15°C +15 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/8 31°Cavg 26°C 21°Cavg 16°C +15 GDD 0.0 mm

Data and methods

Show data sources and model assumptions

Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.

Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.

This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.

Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed August 23, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.

The Umbria & Marche model uses a March 15–October 31 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 35°C.