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Australia · Multi-region weather view

Heathcote & Rutherglen

Warm inland Victorian districts north of the Great Dividing Range.

Continental summer heat is moderated locally by elevation and large day–night temperature swings.

Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Aug 20, 2026.

Current conditions

Observations through Aug 30, 2026 · 06:00 UTC

Temperature17.2°C
Dew Point11.3°C
Relative Humidity69%
24h Rainfall0.0 mmmodeled IFS total through Aug 29

Vintage explorer

Compare this vintage →

Slightly cooler and moderately wetter than normal.

Mean temperature17.5°C
Temperature anomaly-0.0°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days1851base 10°C
Hot days18≥ 35°C

What stood out in 2019

Rain close to harvest can raise rot pressure and shorten the picking window. Frost exposure can vary sharply from one site to the next.

More harvest rain than usual · High confidence

Harvest-window precipitation totaled 250 mm, +136 mm versus baseline.

Rain close to harvest can raise rot pressure and shorten the picking window.

Spring frost recorded · Low confidence

The regional record had 1 spring day(s) at or below 0°C.

Frost exposure can vary sharply from one site to the next.

How unusual was 2019?

The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.

Growing-season temperature

16th coolest of 35 vintages Cooler than 19 of 34 other vintages 17.5°C

Growing-season rainfall

13th wettest of 35 vintages Wetter than 22 of 34 other vintages 383.1 mm

Heat accumulation

16th lowest of 35 vintages Lower than 19 of 34 other vintages 1851 GDD

Hot days

9th most of 35 vintages More than 24 of 34 other vintages 18 days

2019 month by month

Compared with 1991–2020

Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.

Frost watch Growing season Harvest window
  1. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2019 31 GDD
    Typical 44 GDD

    Rainfall

    2019 27.9 mm
    Typical 54.8 mm
    2019 freezing days
    1
    Typical
    1.4

    Drier than the typical month.

  2. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2019 145 GDD
    Typical 123 GDD

    Rainfall

    2019 12.7 mm
    Typical 48.5 mm
    2019 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.1

    Drier than the typical month.

  3. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2019 200 GDD
    Typical 221 GDD

    Rainfall

    2019 34.9 mm
    Typical 53.3 mm
    2019 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.0

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  4. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2019 368 GDD
    Typical 310 GDD

    Rainfall

    2019 11.1 mm
    Typical 46.7 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

  5. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2019 390 GDD
    Typical 390 GDD

    Rainfall

    2019 46.9 mm
    Typical 40.9 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  6. 1–29
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2019 347 GDD
    Typical 341 GDD

    Rainfall

    2019 37.5 mm
    Typical 41.2 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  7. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2019 258 GDD
    Typical 281 GDD

    Rainfall

    2019 80.8 mm
    Typical 36.2 mm

    Wetter than the typical month.

  8. 1–30
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2019 111 GDD
    Typical 146 GDD

    Rainfall

    2019 131.2 mm
    Typical 36.1 mm

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

View milestone calendar data as a table
Month2019 GDDTypical GDD2019 rainfallTypical rainfall2019 freezing daysTypical freezing days
September 2019 31 GDD 44 GDD 27.9 mm 54.8 mm 11.4
October 2019 145 GDD 123 GDD 12.7 mm 48.5 mm 00.1
November 2019 200 GDD 221 GDD 34.9 mm 53.3 mm 00.0
December 2019 368 GDD 310 GDD 11.1 mm 46.7 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
January 2020 390 GDD 390 GDD 46.9 mm 40.9 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
February 2020 347 GDD 341 GDD 37.5 mm 41.2 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
March 2020 258 GDD 281 GDD 80.8 mm 36.2 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
April 2020 111 GDD 146 GDD 131.2 mm 36.1 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
Calendar data and method

Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.

Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.

Replay the 2019 growing season

243 daily regional observations

Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.

Replay data and method

Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.

Closest weather matches

These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.

  1. Closest match

    2013

    Most alike in Spring frost exposure and Growing-season precipitation.

    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days
    Growing-season precipitation
    less rain: 41.0 mm

    Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — less rain

    View 2013 →

  2. Second closest

    2025

    Most alike in Spring frost exposure and Hot-day count.

    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days
    Hot-day count
    more hot days: 2 days

    Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — less rain

    View 2025 →

  3. Third closest

    2016

    Most alike in Growing degree days and Hot-day count.

    Growing degree days
    higher: 36 GDD
    Hot-day count
    fewer hot days: 2 days

    Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — less rain

    View 2016 →
How similar years are calculated

Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.

Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Hot-day count (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%); Spring frost exposure (10%).

Calculated distances: 2013 0.745; 2025 0.788; 2016 0.854.

Growing-season temperature anomalyCompared with 1991-2020
Temperature anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 A line above zero indicates a warmer growing season than the 1991–2020 baseline. Select a point to inspect that vintage. +1.9°C −1.9°C 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
Growing-season rainfall anomaly
Rainfall anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 Bars show millimeters above or below the 1991–2020 growing-season baseline. Select a bar to inspect that vintage. +500 mm −500 mm 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
View historical chart data as a table
YearTemperature anomalyRainfall anomalyHot days
1991-0.6°C-80 mm4
1992-1.1°C+309 mm4
1993-1.3°C+187 mm4
1994-0.6°C-89 mm11
1995-1.7°C+37 mm2
1996-0.7°C-92 mm16
1997+0.1°C-79 mm16
1998-0.3°C+12 mm12
1999-0.3°C+17 mm9
2000+0.3°C+79 mm13
2001-0.8°C-56 mm4
2002+0.6°C-169 mm16
2003-0.7°C-79 mm15
2004-0.6°C+45 mm7
2005+0.0°C+3 mm15
2006+1.1°C-157 mm19
2007+0.6°C-98 mm18
2008+0.3°C-133 mm16
2009+1.0°C+60 mm19
2010-0.7°C+487 mm4
2011-0.1°C+160 mm4
2012+0.6°C-161 mm20
2013+0.5°C-16 mm21
2014+0.4°C-31 mm7
2015+1.6°C-95 mm23
2016+0.2°C+126 mm16
2017+1.2°C-62 mm19
2018+1.3°C-133 mm32
2019-0.0°C+25 mm18
2020-0.2°C-19 mm10
2021+0.1°C+134 mm4
2022-0.6°C+276 mm8
2023+0.5°C+40 mm8
2024+1.7°C-70 mm18
2025+0.5°C-34 mm20
2026+0.0°C+0 mm0

winter

8.3°C

-0.1°C vs baseline

133 mm rain · -38 mm

spring

13.9°C

-0.1°C vs baseline

75 mm rain · -81 mm

summer

22.1°C

+0.6°C vs baseline

95 mm rain · -33 mm

harvest

17.9°C

-0.6°C vs baseline

249 mm rain · +136 mm

Weather events

Periods that crossed one of the published regional thresholds, shown in date order.

  1. Spring frost exposure

    Minimum temperature
    -0.1°C
    Duration
    1 day
    Severe-freeze days
    0 days

    The regional model recorded freezing temperatures during spring.

  2. Dry spell

    Duration
    15 days
    Total rain
    2.1 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  3. Dry spell

    Duration
    15 days
    Total rain
    2.2 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  4. Dry spell

    Duration
    17 days
    Total rain
    1.0 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  5. Dry spell

    Duration
    33 days
    Total rain
    1.4 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  6. Heat episode

    Peak temperature
    43.6°C
    Duration
    3 days
    Heat accumulation
    57 GDD

  7. Heat episode

    Peak temperature
    41.6°C
    Duration
    4 days
    Heat accumulation
    76 GDD

  8. Heat episode

    Peak temperature
    39.1°C
    Duration
    2 days
    Heat accumulation
    32 GDD

  9. Heat episode

    Peak temperature
    37.1°C
    Duration
    2 days
    Heat accumulation
    32 GDD

  10. Heat episode

    Peak temperature
    44.4°C
    Duration
    4 days
    Heat accumulation
    74 GDD

  11. Dry spell

    Duration
    17 days
    Total rain
    3.8 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  12. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    69.7 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    68.6 mm
    Trigger threshold
    20.0 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

  13. Dry spell

    Duration
    14 days
    Total rain
    0.5 mm
    Daily cutoff
    1.0 mm/day

  14. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    64.0 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    58.0 mm
    Trigger threshold
    20.0 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

  15. Concentrated harvest rain

    Total rain
    45.0 mm
    Highest 3-day total
    45.0 mm
    Trigger threshold
    20.0 mm

    A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.

How events are detected

Weather & Vines combined regional series; method event-timeline-v2-2026-07, rules heathcote-catalog-v2-2026-07. Source last updated Aug 1, 2026, calculated Aug 29, 2026. Each configured point must have at least 95.0% coverage.

1991–present

Climate change

Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.

Compare regions

Observed record

Historical trends, 1991–2025

Growing degree days changed +109.9 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +51.9 to +167.9 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.

How it is measured: Across the September 1–April 30 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.

Growing degree days · annual change from the 1991–2020 average1991–2025

Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.

View annual growing degree days data
VintageGrowing degree daysChange from 1991–2020
19911714 GDD-141 GDD
19921612 GDD-244 GDD
19931536 GDD-319 GDD
19941724 GDD-132 GDD
19951463 GDD-393 GDD
19961684 GDD-171 GDD
19971872 GDD+16 GDD
19981790 GDD-65 GDD
19991772 GDD-84 GDD
20001924 GDD+69 GDD
20011643 GDD-213 GDD
20021996 GDD+141 GDD
20031720 GDD-135 GDD
20041704 GDD-152 GDD
20051866 GDD+10 GDD
20062107 GDD+251 GDD
20072012 GDD+156 GDD
20081926 GDD+71 GDD
20092100 GDD+245 GDD
20101676 GDD-180 GDD
20111826 GDD-29 GDD
20121993 GDD+137 GDD
20131953 GDD+97 GDD
20141946 GDD+90 GDD
20152252 GDD+397 GDD
20161888 GDD+32 GDD
20172142 GDD+287 GDD
20182176 GDD+320 GDD
20191851 GDD-4 GDD
20201798 GDD-58 GDD
20211859 GDD+3 GDD
20221698 GDD-158 GDD
20231982 GDD+126 GDD
20242251 GDD+396 GDD
20251957 GDD+101 GDD
Growing-season mean temperature
+0.47 °C per decade 95% interval +0.23 to +0.72
Growing degree days
+109.90 GDD per decade 95% interval +51.89 to +167.92
Growing-season precipitation
+3.05 mm per decade 95% interval -40.02 to +46.12
Hot days
+2.53 days per decade 95% interval -0.11 to +5.17
Spring frost days
-0.27 days per decade 95% interval -0.75 to +0.22
Longest dry spell
+0.77 days per decade 95% interval -0.84 to +2.38

Last Updated August 20, 2026

Model ensemble

Projected climate through 2075

Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.

Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.

PeriodWeighted medianWeighted central 80%Models per pathway
2021-2040+0.7°C+0.3 to +1.0°C25
2041-2060+1.4°C+0.8 to +1.8°C25
2061-2075+1.9°C+1.1 to +2.5°C25
How pathways are combined

For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Compare projection measures across regions

Typical year · 1991–2020

When to visit

This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.

Deterministic IFS forecast

Next ten days

Detailed forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · model run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC · retrieved Aug 30, 2026 at 08:22 UTC

Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.

DateSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTue
High 17°C 17°C 19°C 16°C 15°C 15°C 14°C 15°C 14°C 13°C
Low 10°C 5°C 9°C 10°C 8°C 5°C 11°C 8°C 6°C 6°C
Rain 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.4 mm 0.8 mm 0.7 mm 5.8 mm 5.7 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.3 mm

Across the typical year: Late January has the warmest median afternoon high (30.3°C); Early July has the coolest (12.3°C). Wet days are most frequent in Early July (42%) and least frequent in Early March (15%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lowsMedians and middle 50% of daily readings

Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lows for Heathcote & Rutherglen Median daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 24 early and late-month periods under the 1991–2020 baseline. Neutral bands show the 25th to 75th percentile. 0°C10°C20°C30°C JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
How often a day is wetShare of days with at least 1 mm of rain

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Wet-day frequency through the typical year for Heathcote & Rutherglen The fraction of days receiving at least one millimeter of rain in each early and late-month period under the 1991–2020 baseline. 0%25%50%75%100% JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
View all 24 periods as a table

Scroll horizontally to view all columns.

Heathcote & Rutherglen typical weather by half-month, 1991–2020
PeriodAfternoon high, median (middle 50%)Overnight low, median (middle 50%)Wet-day frequencyPeriod rain, median (middle 50%)
Jan 1–1529.9°C (26.1–34.2°C)14.4°C (11.5–17.1°C)19%9.5 mm (4.3–18.7 mm)
Jan 16–3130.3°C (27.3–33.8°C)14.9°C (12.4–17.8°C)21%19.3 mm (7.3–32.8 mm)
Feb 1–1530.1°C (26.4–33.2°C)14.8°C (12.1–18.0°C)23%14.8 mm (5.4–22.2 mm)
Feb 16–2929.3°C (26.7–32.1°C)14.2°C (11.9–16.8°C)17%6.8 mm (1.5–29.0 mm)
Mar 1–1527.7°C (24.4–30.6°C)12.7°C (10.4–15.2°C)15%7.1 mm (1.8–21.2 mm)
Mar 16–3124.9°C (21.8–27.3°C)10.6°C (8.7–13.5°C)16%15.3 mm (3.1–28.5 mm)
Apr 1–1522.7°C (19.8–25.3°C)8.5°C (6.8–11.2°C)20%11.9 mm (3.9–26.3 mm)
Apr 16–3020.2°C (17.9–22.8°C)7.0°C (5.4–9.5°C)20%13.0 mm (3.8–30.0 mm)
May 1–1517.6°C (15.5–19.5°C)5.8°C (3.7–8.1°C)23%11.8 mm (5.2–27.3 mm)
May 16–3115.6°C (14.2–17.2°C)4.7°C (2.7–7.2°C)27%23.2 mm (15.2–31.0 mm)
Jun 1–1513.9°C (12.6–15.4°C)4.0°C (1.9–6.7°C)32%25.6 mm (16.7–38.0 mm)
Jun 16–3012.9°C (11.5–13.9°C)3.9°C (1.3–5.9°C)35%25.9 mm (12.6–37.6 mm)
Jul 1–1512.3°C (11.1–13.5°C)3.7°C (1.4–5.7°C)42%30.0 mm (18.8–40.1 mm)
Jul 16–3112.5°C (11.5–13.8°C)3.1°C (0.9–5.1°C)34%20.4 mm (16.3–34.8 mm)
Aug 1–1513.1°C (11.7–14.5°C)3.5°C (1.2–5.4°C)38%30.2 mm (17.1–42.5 mm)
Aug 16–3114.2°C (12.6–16.5°C)3.1°C (1.2–5.4°C)32%25.7 mm (12.0–38.9 mm)
Sep 1–1515.7°C (14.1–17.7°C)4.2°C (2.1–6.5°C)33%23.4 mm (10.2–33.9 mm)
Sep 16–3017.0°C (15.3–19.5°C)4.9°C (2.7–7.4°C)29%18.4 mm (10.5–37.6 mm)
Oct 1–1519.3°C (16.7–22.4°C)5.8°C (3.8–8.5°C)29%16.5 mm (9.6–35.9 mm)
Oct 16–3121.1°C (18.4–24.6°C)7.0°C (5.0–9.9°C)25%15.2 mm (7.6–36.2 mm)
Nov 1–1522.6°C (19.8–26.3°C)8.8°C (6.5–11.5°C)30%22.7 mm (15.4–42.9 mm)
Nov 16–3025.8°C (22.2–29.4°C)10.3°C (7.8–13.5°C)25%18.0 mm (6.8–29.3 mm)
Dec 1–1526.5°C (23.8–29.7°C)11.1°C (8.7–14.2°C)25%13.3 mm (6.7–39.5 mm)
Dec 16–3128.6°C (25.1–32.4°C)12.6°C (10.0–15.6°C)22%14.2 mm (6.9–26.2 mm)

Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.

Historical climatology Last Updated August 20, 2026

Most recent season

Growing season heat and rainfall

Sep 1, 2025–Apr 30, 2026

Growing degree days1956.9base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall323.4 mmweighted regional total
Cumulative growing degree daysBase 10°C

2025 season1991–2020 average

Growing degree days accumulated during the 2025 growing season The solid line accumulates daily mean temperature above 10 degrees Celsius from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 1957 GDD 0 Sep ’25OctNovDecJan ’26FebMarApr
Cumulative growing-season rainfallRegional weighted mean

2025 season1991–2020 average

Rainfall accumulated during the 2025 growing season The solid line accumulates daily rainfall in millimeters from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 356 mm 0 Sep ’25OctNovDecJan ’26FebMarApr
View growing-season accumulation data
DateSeason GDD1991–2020 average GDDSeason rainfall1991–2020 average rainfall
2025-09-010.00.90.5 mm2.1 mm
2025-09-020.02.00.8 mm4.4 mm
2025-09-032.13.60.9 mm6.1 mm
2025-09-042.14.71.9 mm8.1 mm
2025-09-052.15.56.4 mm9.9 mm
2025-09-062.66.16.6 mm11.3 mm
2025-09-076.86.710.5 mm13.2 mm
2025-09-0810.57.815.6 mm15.9 mm
2025-09-0911.19.015.7 mm18.3 mm
2025-09-1011.19.920.7 mm20.0 mm
2025-09-1111.610.527.0 mm21.4 mm
2025-09-1211.612.027.1 mm23.4 mm
2025-09-1312.713.227.1 mm24.8 mm
2025-09-1414.614.527.1 mm26.6 mm
2025-09-1519.115.927.5 mm28.9 mm
2025-09-1622.517.432.1 mm30.4 mm
2025-09-1722.518.534.0 mm32.6 mm
2025-09-1822.519.934.2 mm33.6 mm
2025-09-1925.122.135.7 mm35.1 mm
2025-09-2025.123.736.1 mm36.6 mm
2025-09-2126.825.536.9 mm37.6 mm
2025-09-2226.828.037.7 mm39.2 mm
2025-09-2326.830.337.7 mm40.9 mm
2025-09-2427.632.337.8 mm42.0 mm
2025-09-2528.333.937.9 mm45.0 mm
2025-09-2633.935.137.9 mm46.5 mm
2025-09-2735.237.537.9 mm47.4 mm
2025-09-2836.039.939.0 mm48.6 mm
2025-09-2937.141.739.0 mm52.8 mm
2025-09-3042.543.739.6 mm54.8 mm
2025-10-0143.446.340.2 mm56.8 mm
2025-10-0244.949.541.8 mm58.5 mm
2025-10-0347.253.042.1 mm60.5 mm
2025-10-0449.856.442.3 mm62.3 mm
2025-10-0557.859.842.3 mm63.8 mm
2025-10-0661.263.444.0 mm65.4 mm
2025-10-0761.265.944.0 mm67.0 mm
2025-10-0864.668.144.0 mm68.6 mm
2025-10-0969.370.444.3 mm70.4 mm
2025-10-1073.673.344.3 mm71.4 mm
2025-10-1177.877.044.3 mm72.7 mm
2025-10-1279.580.844.5 mm74.1 mm
2025-10-1379.884.245.1 mm75.5 mm
2025-10-1481.687.845.1 mm77.1 mm
2025-10-1586.392.145.1 mm78.6 mm
2025-10-1694.396.245.2 mm80.4 mm
2025-10-17101.699.945.5 mm82.9 mm
2025-10-18105.7103.745.5 mm84.3 mm
2025-10-19113.5108.245.5 mm85.5 mm
2025-10-20122.4112.246.0 mm87.3 mm
2025-10-21127.9116.246.4 mm88.5 mm
2025-10-22133.8120.649.7 mm90.1 mm
2025-10-23136.0125.451.8 mm91.9 mm
2025-10-24138.2130.951.8 mm94.9 mm
2025-10-25140.3136.453.3 mm96.0 mm
2025-10-26145.7141.266.2 mm96.9 mm
2025-10-27148.5145.174.8 mm97.7 mm
2025-10-28149.9149.874.8 mm98.2 mm
2025-10-29153.3154.874.8 mm98.8 mm
2025-10-30159.2160.874.8 mm100.1 mm
2025-10-31167.5166.576.5 mm103.3 mm
2025-11-01177.3172.677.1 mm105.3 mm
2025-11-02189.0178.677.1 mm108.1 mm
2025-11-03194.6183.985.3 mm110.0 mm
2025-11-04196.3188.694.6 mm111.9 mm
2025-11-05200.1194.096.8 mm114.6 mm
2025-11-06204.9200.396.8 mm117.0 mm
2025-11-07216.5206.397.5 mm118.5 mm
2025-11-08221.4212.198.1 mm121.3 mm
2025-11-09224.6218.598.3 mm121.7 mm
2025-11-10227.1224.998.3 mm123.6 mm
2025-11-11227.1231.7100.6 mm124.6 mm
2025-11-12227.7239.4101.0 mm128.1 mm
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2026-04-301956.91855.1323.4 mm355.7 mm

Forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC

10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record

GDD accumulation
16 GDDvs 10 GDD average
Total rainfall
13.8 mmvs 21.9 mm average

No unusually hot or wet period stands out in the short-range forecast.

Sun8/30 17°Cavg 15°C 10°Cavg 4°C +4 GDD 0.0 mm
Mon8/31 17°Cavg 15°C 5°Cavg 4°C +1 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/1 19°Cavg 16°C 9°Cavg 4°C +3 GDD 0.4 mm
Wed9/2 16°Cavg 16°C 10°Cavg 4°C +4 GDD 0.8 mm
Thu9/3 15°Cavg 17°C 8°Cavg 5°C +1 GDD 0.7 mm
Fri9/4 15°Cavg 16°C 5°Cavg 5°C +1 GDD 5.8 mm
Sat9/5 14°Cavg 16°C 11°Cavg 4°C +2 GDD 5.7 mm
Sun9/6 15°Cavg 15°C 8°Cavg 4°C +0 GDD 0.0 mm
Mon9/7 14°Cavg 15°C 6°Cavg 4°C +0 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/8 13°Cavg 16°C 6°Cavg 5°C +0 GDD 0.3 mm

Data and methods

Show data sources and model assumptions

Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.

Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.

This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.

Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed August 23, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.

The Heathcote & Rutherglen model uses a September 1–April 30 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 35°C.

The historical series uses 2 ERA5 locations, 8 temperature stations, and 43 rain stations. Interpretation confidence: high. Geometry confidence: reviewed-approximate. Rules: heathcote-catalog-v2-2026-07.