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Chile · Multi-region weather view

Maipo Valley

Vineyards along the Maipo from the Andean foothills through the central valley to the drier western reaches around Isla de Maipo.

Warm, dry summers dominate, while elevation cools foothill nights and marine influence grows westward. Spring frost, heat spikes and late-season rain can differ substantially across that transect.

Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Sep 13, 2026.

Current conditions

Observations through Sep 21, 2026 · 03:00 UTC

Temperature10.5°C
Dew Point9.1°C
Relative Humidity91%
24h Rainfall17.1 mmmodeled IFS total through Sep 20

Vintage explorer

Compare this vintage · View 2004 across regions →

Moderately cooler and significantly wetter than normal.

Mean temperature16.0°C
Temperature anomaly-0.5°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days1464base 10°C
Hot days0≥ 35°C

What stood out in 2004

Frost exposure can vary sharply from one site to the next.

Spring frost recorded · Low confidence

The regional record had 2 spring day(s) at or below 0°C.

Frost exposure can vary sharply from one site to the next.

How unusual was 2004?

The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.

Growing-season temperature

3rd coolest of 35 vintages Cooler than 32 of 34 other vintages 16.0°C

Growing-season rainfall

6th wettest of 35 vintages Wetter than 29 of 34 other vintages 259.7 mm

Heat accumulation

2nd lowest of 35 vintages Lower than 33 of 34 other vintages 1465 GDD

Hot days

Most of 35 vintages More than 0 of 34 other vintages 0 days

2004 month by month

Compared with 1991–2020

Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.

Frost watch Growing season Harvest window
  1. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2004 47 GDD
    Typical 40 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 69.5 mm
    Typical 63.1 mm
    2004 freezing days
    2
    Typical
    1.7

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  2. 1–31
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2004 74 GDD
    Typical 104 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 45.8 mm
    Typical 46.5 mm
    2004 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.1

    Heat accumulation ran behind the typical month.

  3. 1–30
    Frost watchGrowing season

    Heat accumulation

    2004 149 GDD
    Typical 186 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 79.3 mm
    Typical 25.8 mm
    2004 freezing days
    0
    Typical
    0.0

    Wetter than the typical month.

  4. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2004 277 GDD
    Typical 271 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 10.2 mm
    Typical 13.7 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  5. 1–31
    Growing season

    Heat accumulation

    2004 300 GDD
    Typical 328 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 16.1 mm
    Typical 10.4 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  6. 1–28
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2004 278 GDD
    Typical 280 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 1.6 mm
    Typical 9.0 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  7. 1–31
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2004 227 GDD
    Typical 257 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 20.6 mm
    Typical 12.3 mm

    Close to the typical monthly pattern.

  8. 1–30
    Growing seasonHarvest window

    Heat accumulation

    2004 112 GDD
    Typical 130 GDD

    Rainfall

    2004 16.7 mm
    Typical 35.5 mm

    Drier than the typical month.

View milestone calendar data as a table
Month2004 GDDTypical GDD2004 rainfallTypical rainfall2004 freezing daysTypical freezing days
September 2004 47 GDD 40 GDD 69.5 mm 63.1 mm 21.7
October 2004 74 GDD 104 GDD 45.8 mm 46.5 mm 00.1
November 2004 149 GDD 186 GDD 79.3 mm 25.8 mm 00.0
December 2004 277 GDD 271 GDD 10.2 mm 13.7 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
January 2005 300 GDD 328 GDD 16.1 mm 10.4 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
February 2005 278 GDD 280 GDD 1.6 mm 9.0 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
March 2005 227 GDD 257 GDD 20.6 mm 12.3 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
April 2005 112 GDD 130 GDD 16.7 mm 35.5 mm Outside frost windowOutside frost window
Calendar data and method

Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.

Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Sep 13, 2026.

Replay the 2004 growing season

242 daily regional observations

Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.

Replay data and method

Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Sep 12, 2026.

The daily weather replay is complete, but the separate weather-event scan is not currently available for this vintage.

Closest weather matches

These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.

  1. Closest match

    2012

    Most alike in Harvest precipitation and Growing degree days.

    Harvest precipitation
    less rain: 4.6 mm
    Growing degree days
    higher: 23 GDD

    Largest difference: Spring frost exposure — fewer frost-exposure days

    View 2012 →

  2. Second closest

    2006

    Most alike in Spring frost exposure and Growing degree days.

    Spring frost exposure
    the same: 0 days
    Growing degree days
    higher: 15 GDD

    Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — more rain

    View 2006 →

  3. Third closest

    2009

    Most alike in Growing-season mean temperature and Growing degree days.

    Growing-season mean temperature
    warmer: 0.0°C
    Growing degree days
    higher: 35 GDD

    Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — less rain

    View 2009 →
How similar years are calculated

Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.

Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%); Spring frost exposure (10%). Measures omitted because they did not vary: Hot-day count.

Calculated distances: 2012 0.294; 2006 0.408; 2009 0.449.

Growing-season temperature anomalyCompared with 1991-2020
Temperature anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 A line above zero indicates a warmer growing season than the 1991–2020 baseline. Select a point to inspect that vintage. +6.1°C −6.1°C 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
Growing-season rainfall anomaly
Rainfall anomaly by vintage, 1991 to 2026 Bars show millimeters above or below the 1991–2020 growing-season baseline. Select a bar to inspect that vintage. +350 mm −350 mm 1991 2000 2010 2020 2026
View historical chart data as a table
YearTemperature anomalyRainfall anomalyHot days
1991-0.4°C+195 mm0
1992+0.4°C+8 mm0
1993-0.1°C-38 mm0
1994+0.7°C-42 mm0
1995-0.1°C-45 mm0
1996+1.1°C-79 mm0
1997-0.2°C+242 mm0
1998+0.1°C-93 mm0
1999-0.2°C+93 mm0
2000-0.3°C+100 mm0
2001-0.1°C-63 mm0
2002-0.4°C-47 mm0
2003-0.1°C+20 mm0
2004-0.5°C+43 mm0
2005-0.6°C-15 mm0
2006-0.5°C+18 mm0
2007-0.4°C-71 mm0
2008+0.3°C-130 mm0
2009-0.5°C-6 mm0
2010-0.8°C+18 mm0
2011+0.4°C-92 mm0
2012-0.4°C+9 mm0
2013-0.4°C-98 mm0
2014+0.5°C-26 mm0
2015-0.1°C+338 mm0
2016+0.9°C+19 mm0
2017-0.1°C-32 mm0
2018+0.3°C-28 mm0
2019+1.2°C-111 mm0
2020-0.0°C-87 mm0
2021-0.1°C-56 mm0
2022+0.7°C-77 mm0
2023-0.0°C+36 mm0
2024+0.5°C-108 mm0
2025+0.4°C-56 mm0
2026-5.8°C-209 mm0

winter

7.8°C

+0.2°C vs baseline

290 mm rain · -31 mm

spring

12.8°C

-0.6°C vs baseline

194 mm rain · +59 mm

summer

19.5°C

-0.2°C vs baseline

27 mm rain · -5 mm

harvest

16.9°C

-0.5°C vs baseline

38 mm rain · -18 mm

Weather events

1991–present

Climate change

Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.

Compare regions

Observed record

Historical trends, 1991–2025

Growing degree days changed +22.6 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is -14.1 to +59.4 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.

How it is measured: Across the September 1–April 30 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.

Growing degree days · annual change from the 1991–2020 average1991–2025

Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.

View annual growing degree days data
VintageGrowing degree daysChange from 1991–2020
19911518 GDD-77 GDD
19921683 GDD+88 GDD
19931596 GDD+0 GDD
19941747 GDD+151 GDD
19951557 GDD-38 GDD
19961846 GDD+251 GDD
19971551 GDD-45 GDD
19981610 GDD+15 GDD
19991571 GDD-24 GDD
20001536 GDD-60 GDD
20011577 GDD-19 GDD
20021489 GDD-107 GDD
20031586 GDD-10 GDD
20041465 GDD-131 GDD
20051473 GDD-122 GDD
20061480 GDD-115 GDD
20071515 GDD-81 GDD
20081670 GDD+74 GDD
20091500 GDD-95 GDD
20101409 GDD-187 GDD
20111701 GDD+105 GDD
20121488 GDD-107 GDD
20131520 GDD-75 GDD
20141709 GDD+113 GDD
20151573 GDD-22 GDD
20161794 GDD+198 GDD
20171576 GDD-20 GDD
20181655 GDD+60 GDD
20191896 GDD+301 GDD
20201577 GDD-19 GDD
20211574 GDD-21 GDD
20221759 GDD+163 GDD
20231580 GDD-16 GDD
20241701 GDD+105 GDD
20251691 GDD+96 GDD
Growing-season mean temperature
+0.11 °C per decade 95% interval -0.06 to +0.27
Growing degree days
+22.62 GDD per decade 95% interval -14.11 to +59.35
Growing-season precipitation
-24.35 mm per decade 95% interval -50.70 to +2.00
Hot days
No variation recorded
Spring frost days
-0.28 days per decade 95% interval -0.78 to +0.22
Longest dry spell
+9.81 days per decade 95% interval +2.10 to +17.51

Last Updated September 13, 2026

Model ensemble

Projected climate through 2075

Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.

Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.

PeriodWeighted medianWeighted central 80%Models per pathway
2021-2040+0.8°C+0.5 to +1.0°C25
2041-2060+1.3°C+0.9 to +1.8°C25
2061-2075+1.7°C+1.2 to +2.4°C25
How pathways are combined

For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.

Last Updated June 29, 2025

Compare projection measures across regions

Typical year · 1991–2020

When to visit

This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.

Deterministic IFS forecast

Next ten days

Detailed forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · model run Sep 20, 2026 at 00:00 UTC · retrieved Sep 21, 2026 at 03:21 UTC

Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.

DateMonTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTue
High 18°C 21°C 18°C 16°C 20°C 22°C 20°C 17°C 15°C
Low 7°C 8°C 10°C 10°C 11°C 11°C 13°C 11°C 8°C
Rain 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 0.0 mm 2.9 mm 0.1 mm 1.8 mm 4.1 mm 0.2 mm

Across the typical year: Early January has the warmest median afternoon high (27.2°C); Early July has the coolest (12.4°C). Wet days are most frequent in Late May (31%) and least frequent in Late January (6%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lowsMedians and middle 50% of daily readings

Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Typical afternoon highs and overnight lows for Maipo Valley Median daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 24 early and late-month periods under the 1991–2020 baseline. Neutral bands show the 25th to 75th percentile. -5°C5°C15°C25°C JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
How often a day is wetShare of days with at least 1 mm of rain

Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.

Wet-day frequency through the typical year for Maipo Valley The fraction of days receiving at least one millimeter of rain in each early and late-month period under the 1991–2020 baseline. 0%25%50%75%100% JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
View all 24 periods as a table

Scroll horizontally to view all columns.

Maipo Valley typical weather by half-month, 1991–2020
PeriodAfternoon high, median (middle 50%)Overnight low, median (middle 50%)Wet-day frequencyPeriod rain, median (middle 50%)
Jan 1–1527.2°C (25.8–28.6°C)14.0°C (13.0–14.9°C)6%2.4 mm (1.4–5.1 mm)
Jan 16–3127.2°C (25.7–28.8°C)14.2°C (13.2–15.2°C)6%2.8 mm (1.5–4.9 mm)
Feb 1–1526.7°C (25.6–28.2°C)13.8°C (12.9–14.7°C)6%3.0 mm (1.3–5.8 mm)
Feb 16–2926.0°C (24.7–27.6°C)13.3°C (12.4–14.3°C)8%2.4 mm (1.0–5.3 mm)
Mar 1–1526.0°C (24.0–27.6°C)12.6°C (11.3–13.5°C)7%1.6 mm (0.8–7.3 mm)
Mar 16–3124.5°C (22.8–26.0°C)11.1°C (10.0–12.2°C)7%2.5 mm (0.5–6.6 mm)
Apr 1–1522.0°C (19.7–24.2°C)9.1°C (7.5–10.4°C)15%9.2 mm (3.1–18.7 mm)
Apr 16–3019.8°C (17.6–22.3°C)6.9°C (5.1–8.6°C)14%11.1 mm (4.1–26.9 mm)
May 1–1518.3°C (16.0–20.4°C)5.5°C (3.4–7.5°C)16%5.5 mm (0.7–30.8 mm)
May 16–3115.4°C (13.1–17.5°C)4.1°C (1.7–6.3°C)31%41.2 mm (18.5–85.2 mm)
Jun 1–1513.6°C (11.8–16.2°C)2.4°C (0.3–4.8°C)29%50.3 mm (23.1–86.6 mm)
Jun 16–3012.5°C (10.3–15.0°C)1.8°C (-0.5–4.2°C)31%47.3 mm (11.5–102.2 mm)
Jul 1–1512.4°C (10.3–14.5°C)1.6°C (-0.9–3.7°C)28%46.2 mm (24.9–68.4 mm)
Jul 16–3112.7°C (10.4–14.8°C)1.1°C (-1.3–3.3°C)27%28.9 mm (14.2–58.6 mm)
Aug 1–1513.6°C (11.3–16.1°C)1.8°C (-0.4–3.8°C)26%24.5 mm (16.3–61.7 mm)
Aug 16–3114.9°C (12.2–17.8°C)3.3°C (0.8–5.4°C)27%28.9 mm (11.1–60.5 mm)
Sep 1–1515.7°C (12.9–18.8°C)4.2°C (2.1–6.1°C)31%25.6 mm (8.7–49.7 mm)
Sep 16–3017.3°C (15.0–20.2°C)5.4°C (3.7–7.0°C)27%25.0 mm (13.5–37.0 mm)
Oct 1–1518.3°C (15.6–21.1°C)6.5°C (4.7–8.1°C)30%24.8 mm (10.6–29.6 mm)
Oct 16–3120.6°C (18.1–23.0°C)7.8°C (6.3–9.4°C)22%12.1 mm (6.2–23.1 mm)
Nov 1–1522.0°C (19.5–24.5°C)9.3°C (8.0–10.4°C)22%9.4 mm (5.3–19.7 mm)
Nov 16–3024.0°C (21.7–26.0°C)10.5°C (9.2–11.5°C)17%7.8 mm (4.9–10.6 mm)
Dec 1–1524.8°C (23.0–26.6°C)11.4°C (10.1–12.4°C)10%5.9 mm (4.2–9.4 mm)
Dec 16–3126.2°C (24.7–27.9°C)12.9°C (11.9–14.1°C)6%2.8 mm (2.0–5.4 mm)

Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.

Historical climatology Last Updated September 12, 2026

Season to date

Growing season heat and rainfall

Sep 1–Sep 20, 2026

Compare this season across regions →

Growing degree days12.3base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall6.8 mmweighted regional total
Cumulative growing degree daysBase 10°C

2026 season1991–2020 average

Growing degree days accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily mean temperature above 10 degrees Celsius from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 12 GDD 0 Sep ’26
Cumulative growing-season rainfallRegional weighted mean

2026 season1991–2020 average

Rainfall accumulated during the 2026 growing season The solid line accumulates daily rainfall in millimeters from the configured growing-season start. The dashed line shows the 1991–2020 daily climatological average. 35 mm 0 Sep ’26
View growing-season accumulation data
DateSeason GDD1991–2020 average GDDSeason rainfall1991–2020 average rainfall
2026-09-013.00.70.0 mm2.5 mm
2026-09-026.81.30.1 mm3.8 mm
2026-09-039.62.31.0 mm7.2 mm
2026-09-0410.23.21.0 mm9.7 mm
2026-09-0510.24.01.0 mm13.9 mm
2026-09-0610.94.81.0 mm19.4 mm
2026-09-0710.95.71.0 mm22.6 mm
2026-09-0810.96.71.1 mm23.7 mm
2026-09-0911.27.81.7 mm26.3 mm
2026-09-1011.28.83.8 mm29.9 mm
2026-09-1111.29.76.4 mm31.0 mm
2026-09-1211.310.66.8 mm33.4 mm
2026-09-1312.311.66.8 mm34.8 mm

Forecast outlook

ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Sep 20, 2026 at 00:00 UTC

9-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record

GDD accumulation
30 GDDvs 17 GDD average
Total rainfall
9.0 mmvs 13.5 mm average

No unusually hot or wet period stands out in the short-range forecast.

Mon9/21 18°Cavg 18°C 7°Cavg 5°C +2 GDD 0.0 mm
Tue9/22 21°Cavg 17°C 8°Cavg 6°C +4 GDD 0.0 mm
Wed9/23 18°Cavg 18°C 10°Cavg 5°C +4 GDD 0.0 mm
Thu9/24 16°Cavg 19°C 10°Cavg 5°C +3 GDD 0.0 mm
Fri9/25 20°Cavg 18°C 11°Cavg 5°C +4 GDD 2.9 mm
Sat9/26 22°Cavg 17°C 11°Cavg 6°C +5 GDD 0.1 mm
Sun9/27 20°Cavg 17°C 13°Cavg 6°C +5 GDD 1.8 mm
Mon9/28 17°Cavg 18°C 11°Cavg 6°C +3 GDD 4.1 mm
Tue9/29 15°Cavg 18°C 8°Cavg 6°C +0 GDD 0.2 mm

Data and methods

Show data sources and model assumptions

Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.

Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.

This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.

Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed September 20, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.

The Maipo Valley model uses a September 1–April 30 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 35°C.