Australia · Multi-region weather view
Margaret River & Great Southern
Sign in to followWestern Australia's maritime southwest, from Margaret River to Great Southern.
Ocean influence moderates summer heat, with cooler and windier conditions toward the south coast.
Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Aug 20, 2026.
Current conditions
Observations through Aug 30, 2026 · 06:00 UTC
Temperature20.7°C
Dew Point13.0°C
Relative Humidity61%
24h Rainfall0.5 mmmodeled IFS total through Aug 29
Vintage explorer
Mean temperature17.5°C
Temperature anomaly+0.1°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days1820base 10°C
Hot days1≥ 35°C
What stood out in 2004
Rain close to harvest can raise rot pressure and shorten the picking window.
More harvest rain than usual · High confidence
Harvest-window precipitation totaled 178 mm, +84 mm versus baseline.
Rain close to harvest can raise rot pressure and shorten the picking window.
How unusual was 2004?
The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.
Growing-season temperature
16th warmest of 35 vintages Warmer than 19 of 34 other vintages 17.5°CGrowing-season rainfall
18th wettest of 35 vintages Wetter than 17 of 34 other vintages 285.5 mmHeat accumulation
16th highest of 35 vintages Higher than 19 of 34 other vintages 1820 GDDHot days
6th fewest of 35 vintages Fewer than 25 of 34 other vintages 1 days2004 month by month
Compared with 1991–2020
Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.
Frost watch
Growing season
Harvest window
-
1–30 Frost watchGrowing seasonHeat accumulation
2004 64 GDDTypical 82 GDDRainfall
2004 34.9 mmTypical 67.6 mm- 2004 freezing days
- 0
- Typical
- 0.0
Drier than the typical month.
-
1–31 Frost watchGrowing seasonHeat accumulation
2004 144 GDDTypical 141 GDDRainfall
2004 23.7 mmTypical 43.5 mm- 2004 freezing days
- 0
- Typical
- 0.0
Drier than the typical month.
-
1–30 Frost watchGrowing seasonHeat accumulation
2004 204 GDDTypical 203 GDDRainfall
2004 33.4 mmTypical 35.4 mm- 2004 freezing days
- 0
- Typical
- 0.0
Close to the typical monthly pattern.
-
1–31 Growing seasonHeat accumulation
2004 302 GDDTypical 267 GDDRainfall
2004 9.5 mmTypical 25.9 mmDrier than the typical month.
-
1–31 Growing seasonHeat accumulation
2004 304 GDDTypical 314 GDDRainfall
2004 5.8 mmTypical 19.7 mmDrier than the typical month.
-
1–28 Growing seasonHarvest windowHeat accumulation
2004 274 GDDTypical 294 GDDRainfall
2004 13.0 mmTypical 19.8 mmClose to the typical monthly pattern.
-
1–31 Growing seasonHarvest windowHeat accumulation
2004 349 GDDTypical 287 GDDRainfall
2004 49.5 mmTypical 32.9 mmHeat accumulation ran ahead of the typical month.
-
1–30 Growing seasonHarvest windowHeat accumulation
2004 180 GDDTypical 213 GDDRainfall
2004 115.7 mmTypical 41.2 mmWetter than the typical month.
View milestone calendar data as a table
| Month | 2004 GDD | Typical GDD | 2004 rainfall | Typical rainfall | 2004 freezing days | Typical freezing days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2004 | 64 GDD | 82 GDD | 34.9 mm | 67.6 mm | 0 | 0.0 |
| October 2004 | 144 GDD | 141 GDD | 23.7 mm | 43.5 mm | 0 | 0.0 |
| November 2004 | 204 GDD | 203 GDD | 33.4 mm | 35.4 mm | 0 | 0.0 |
| December 2004 | 302 GDD | 267 GDD | 9.5 mm | 25.9 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
| January 2005 | 304 GDD | 314 GDD | 5.8 mm | 19.7 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
| February 2005 | 274 GDD | 294 GDD | 13.0 mm | 19.8 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
| March 2005 | 349 GDD | 287 GDD | 49.5 mm | 32.9 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
| April 2005 | 180 GDD | 213 GDD | 115.7 mm | 41.2 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
Calendar data and method
Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.
Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.
Replay the 2004 growing season
242 daily regional observations
Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.
Mean temperature
Daily rainfall
Season GDD
Season rainfall
No detected event on this date.
Replay data and method
Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.
Closest weather matches
These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.
Closest match
2020
Most alike in Harvest precipitation and Growing degree days.
- Harvest precipitation
- less rain: 3.9 mm
- Growing degree days
- lower: 49 GDD
Largest difference: Growing-season precipitation — more rain
View 2020 →Second closest
2007
Most alike in Growing degree days and Growing-season mean temperature.
- Growing degree days
- lower: 46 GDD
- Growing-season mean temperature
- cooler: 0.2°C
Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — less rain
View 2007 →Third closest
1996
Most alike in Growing-season mean temperature and Growing degree days.
- Growing-season mean temperature
- cooler: 0.0°C
- Growing degree days
- lower: 14 GDD
Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — less rain
View 1996 →
How similar years are calculated
Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.
Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Hot-day count (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%). Measures omitted because they did not vary: Spring frost exposure.
Calculated distances: 2020 0.672; 2007 0.907; 1996 0.929.
View historical chart data as a table
| Year | Temperature anomaly | Rainfall anomaly | Hot days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | +0.1°C | -13 mm | 0 |
| 1992 | -1.1°C | +81 mm | 1 |
| 1993 | -0.2°C | -123 mm | 4 |
| 1994 | +0.1°C | -103 mm | 4 |
| 1995 | -0.2°C | -7 mm | 4 |
| 1996 | +0.1°C | +75 mm | 3 |
| 1997 | +0.0°C | +20 mm | 8 |
| 1998 | -0.0°C | -34 mm | 1 |
| 1999 | -0.1°C | +107 mm | 0 |
| 2000 | +0.4°C | -146 mm | 4 |
| 2001 | -0.9°C | +57 mm | 0 |
| 2002 | +0.4°C | -1 mm | 6 |
| 2003 | -0.2°C | +2 mm | 3 |
| 2004 | +0.1°C | -0 mm | 1 |
| 2005 | -1.4°C | +52 mm | 0 |
| 2006 | +0.5°C | -69 mm | 5 |
| 2007 | -0.1°C | +27 mm | 3 |
| 2008 | -0.2°C | +76 mm | 1 |
| 2009 | +0.2°C | -35 mm | 6 |
| 2010 | +0.5°C | -28 mm | 2 |
| 2011 | +0.6°C | +47 mm | 6 |
| 2012 | +0.9°C | +21 mm | 5 |
| 2013 | +0.5°C | -36 mm | 3 |
| 2014 | +0.4°C | +12 mm | 6 |
| 2015 | +0.6°C | +71 mm | 4 |
| 2016 | -0.9°C | +57 mm | 4 |
| 2017 | +0.1°C | -34 mm | 0 |
| 2018 | -0.6°C | -65 mm | 2 |
| 2019 | +0.6°C | -83 mm | 4 |
| 2020 | -0.1°C | +70 mm | 3 |
| 2021 | -0.4°C | +4 mm | 6 |
| 2022 | -0.9°C | +26 mm | 1 |
| 2023 | +0.7°C | -160 mm | 4 |
| 2024 | +0.7°C | -79 mm | 5 |
| 2025 | -0.3°C | -35 mm | 5 |
| 2026 | +0.0°C | +0 mm | 0 |
winter
11.6°C
-0.3°C vs baseline
251 mm rain · -8 mm
spring
14.5°C
-0.2°C vs baseline
91 mm rain · -54 mm
summer
19.8°C
+0.1°C vs baseline
28 mm rain · -37 mm
harvest
19.0°C
+0.1°C vs baseline
178 mm rain · +84 mm
Weather events
Periods that crossed one of the published regional thresholds, shown in date order.
Dry spell
- Duration
- 22 days
- Total rain
- 1.2 mm
- Daily cutoff
- 1.0 mm/day
Dry spell
- Duration
- 42 days
- Total rain
- 4.1 mm
- Daily cutoff
- 1.0 mm/day
Dry spell
- Duration
- 22 days
- Total rain
- 2.2 mm
- Daily cutoff
- 1.0 mm/day
Concentrated harvest rain
- Total rain
- 107.9 mm
- Highest 3-day total
- 106.6 mm
- Trigger threshold
- 20.0 mm
A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.
Concentrated harvest rain
- Total rain
- 23.7 mm
- Highest 3-day total
- 22.7 mm
- Trigger threshold
- 20.0 mm
A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.
How events are detected
Weather & Vines combined regional series; method event-timeline-v2-2026-07, rules margaret-river-catalog-v2-2026-07. Source last updated Aug 1, 2026, calculated Aug 29, 2026. Each configured point must have at least 95.0% coverage.
1991–present
Climate change
Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.
Observed record
Historical trends, 1991–2025
Growing degree days changed +21.3 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is -8.2 to +50.8 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.
Weighted median: 70% SSP2-4.5 · 15% SSP1-2.6 · 15% SSP3-7.0
Shaded central 80% model range using the same weights.
How it is measured: Across the September 1–April 30 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.
Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.
View annual growing degree days data
| Vintage | Growing degree days | Change from 1991–2020 |
|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 1841 GDD | +40 GDD |
| 1992 | 1542 GDD | -259 GDD |
| 1993 | 1747 GDD | -54 GDD |
| 1994 | 1827 GDD | +26 GDD |
| 1995 | 1750 GDD | -51 GDD |
| 1996 | 1807 GDD | +6 GDD |
| 1997 | 1802 GDD | +1 GDD |
| 1998 | 1796 GDD | -5 GDD |
| 1999 | 1780 GDD | -21 GDD |
| 2000 | 1899 GDD | +98 GDD |
| 2001 | 1584 GDD | -217 GDD |
| 2002 | 1891 GDD | +90 GDD |
| 2003 | 1753 GDD | -48 GDD |
| 2004 | 1820 GDD | +19 GDD |
| 2005 | 1458 GDD | -343 GDD |
| 2006 | 1924 GDD | +123 GDD |
| 2007 | 1774 GDD | -27 GDD |
| 2008 | 1739 GDD | -62 GDD |
| 2009 | 1859 GDD | +58 GDD |
| 2010 | 1923 GDD | +122 GDD |
| 2011 | 1958 GDD | +157 GDD |
| 2012 | 2014 GDD | +213 GDD |
| 2013 | 1926 GDD | +125 GDD |
| 2014 | 1889 GDD | +88 GDD |
| 2015 | 1960 GDD | +159 GDD |
| 2016 | 1575 GDD | -226 GDD |
| 2017 | 1811 GDD | +10 GDD |
| 2018 | 1649 GDD | -151 GDD |
| 2019 | 1956 GDD | +155 GDD |
| 2020 | 1771 GDD | -30 GDD |
| 2021 | 1712 GDD | -89 GDD |
| 2022 | 1585 GDD | -215 GDD |
| 2023 | 1975 GDD | +174 GDD |
| 2024 | 1965 GDD | +165 GDD |
| 2025 | 1722 GDD | -79 GDD |
- Growing-season mean temperature
- +0.09 °C per decade 95% interval -0.04 to +0.21
- Growing degree days
- +21.33 GDD per decade 95% interval -8.16 to +50.82
- Growing-season precipitation
- -7.34 mm per decade 95% interval -27.85 to +13.16
- Hot days
- +0.44 days per decade 95% interval -0.14 to +1.02
- Spring frost days
- No variation recorded
- Longest dry spell
- +0.94 days per decade 95% interval -3.21 to +5.08
Last Updated August 20, 2026
Model ensemble
Projected climate through 2075
Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.
Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.
| Period | Weighted median | Weighted central 80% | Models per pathway |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-2040 | +0.5°C | +0.3 to +0.7°C | 25 |
| 2041-2060 | +0.9°C | +0.6 to +1.3°C | 25 |
| 2061-2075 | +1.3°C | +0.9 to +1.7°C | 25 |
How pathways are combined
For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.
Last Updated June 29, 2025
Typical year · 1991–2020
When to visit
This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.
Deterministic IFS forecast
Next ten days
Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.
| Date | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | 21°C | 20°C | 14°C | 14°C | 17°C | 13°C | 12°C | 15°C | 15°C | 17°C |
| Low | 14°C | 10°C | 8°C | 8°C | 7°C | 6°C | 6°C | 9°C | 8°C | 5°C |
| Rain | 0.1 mm | 5.1 mm | 0.0 mm | 1.8 mm | 0.7 mm | 0.2 mm | 1.2 mm | 2.1 mm | 0.0 mm | 0.0 mm |
Across the typical year: Early February has the warmest median afternoon high (25.6°C); Early July has the coolest (15.2°C). Wet days are most frequent in Early July (68%) and least frequent in Early January (9%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.
Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%
Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.
Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.
View all 24 periods as a table
Scroll horizontally to view all columns.
| Period | Afternoon high, median (middle 50%) | Overnight low, median (middle 50%) | Wet-day frequency | Period rain, median (middle 50%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1–15 | 25.6°C (22.9–28.8°C) | 14.2°C (12.5–15.6°C) | 9% | 3.0 mm (1.4–9.7 mm) |
| Jan 16–31 | 25.4°C (22.7–28.3°C) | 14.5°C (13.0–16.1°C) | 14% | 6.3 mm (2.7–9.5 mm) |
| Feb 1–15 | 25.6°C (23.2–28.4°C) | 14.9°C (13.4–16.3°C) | 13% | 7.2 mm (2.4–11.3 mm) |
| Feb 16–29 | 25.4°C (23.0–28.6°C) | 15.0°C (13.3–16.5°C) | 14% | 4.8 mm (1.5–13.3 mm) |
| Mar 1–15 | 24.9°C (22.7–28.0°C) | 14.6°C (12.9–16.2°C) | 14% | 7.0 mm (3.3–15.0 mm) |
| Mar 16–31 | 23.2°C (20.8–25.8°C) | 13.3°C (11.4–15.2°C) | 26% | 16.2 mm (9.0–31.6 mm) |
| Apr 1–15 | 22.6°C (20.3–25.7°C) | 12.6°C (10.9–14.4°C) | 24% | 11.8 mm (8.2–23.1 mm) |
| Apr 16–30 | 21.2°C (19.2–23.3°C) | 11.2°C (9.6–13.2°C) | 31% | 14.4 mm (9.9–25.9 mm) |
| May 1–15 | 19.6°C (17.6–21.9°C) | 10.2°C (8.6–12.0°C) | 39% | 24.8 mm (18.5–34.6 mm) |
| May 16–31 | 18.4°C (16.5–19.9°C) | 8.9°C (7.4–10.6°C) | 45% | 41.0 mm (26.0–55.5 mm) |
| Jun 1–15 | 16.7°C (15.3–18.5°C) | 8.3°C (6.8–9.9°C) | 57% | 38.7 mm (21.3–49.9 mm) |
| Jun 16–30 | 16.1°C (14.9–17.9°C) | 8.2°C (6.7–9.5°C) | 63% | 39.4 mm (35.1–46.3 mm) |
| Jul 1–15 | 15.2°C (13.9–16.9°C) | 7.3°C (5.9–8.8°C) | 68% | 42.4 mm (37.8–48.9 mm) |
| Jul 16–31 | 15.8°C (14.4–17.1°C) | 7.4°C (5.7–9.0°C) | 64% | 40.7 mm (30.6–55.6 mm) |
| Aug 1–15 | 15.6°C (14.3–17.3°C) | 7.3°C (5.7–8.8°C) | 60% | 39.2 mm (33.1–52.9 mm) |
| Aug 16–31 | 16.1°C (14.5–17.7°C) | 7.2°C (5.8–8.9°C) | 58% | 40.5 mm (31.1–50.8 mm) |
| Sep 1–15 | 16.7°C (15.2–18.6°C) | 7.6°C (6.1–9.2°C) | 53% | 35.9 mm (24.1–46.8 mm) |
| Sep 16–30 | 17.8°C (15.4–19.9°C) | 8.3°C (6.4–9.8°C) | 46% | 28.1 mm (14.7–43.6 mm) |
| Oct 1–15 | 18.6°C (16.6–21.2°C) | 8.6°C (7.0–10.1°C) | 37% | 18.1 mm (13.8–26.8 mm) |
| Oct 16–31 | 19.9°C (17.9–22.4°C) | 9.8°C (8.1–11.5°C) | 29% | 18.8 mm (9.4–30.4 mm) |
| Nov 1–15 | 21.6°C (18.9–24.3°C) | 10.7°C (8.9–12.4°C) | 26% | 14.5 mm (10.6–20.4 mm) |
| Nov 16–30 | 22.5°C (19.9–25.1°C) | 11.7°C (9.9–13.1°C) | 25% | 12.4 mm (9.8–19.7 mm) |
| Dec 1–15 | 22.6°C (20.5–26.0°C) | 12.0°C (10.6–13.5°C) | 21% | 10.6 mm (3.1–21.0 mm) |
| Dec 16–31 | 24.9°C (22.4–27.7°C) | 13.4°C (11.9–14.9°C) | 12% | 6.9 mm (2.3–10.0 mm) |
Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.
Historical climatology Last Updated August 20, 2026
Most recent season
Growing season heat and rainfall
Sep 1, 2025–Apr 30, 2026
Growing degree days1722.3base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall251.3 mmweighted regional total
2025 season1991–2020 average
2025 season1991–2020 average
View growing-season accumulation data
| Date | Season GDD | 1991–2020 average GDD | Season rainfall | 1991–2020 average rainfall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.1 mm | 2.5 mm |
| 2025-09-02 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 0.7 mm | 5.1 mm |
| 2025-09-03 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 0.7 mm | 7.5 mm |
| 2025-09-04 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 1.2 mm | 10.0 mm |
| 2025-09-05 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 12.4 mm | 11.8 mm |
| 2025-09-06 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 27.7 mm | 15.1 mm |
| 2025-09-07 | 9.4 | 14.2 | 34.2 mm | 17.6 mm |
| 2025-09-08 | 9.4 | 16.9 | 41.8 mm | 20.1 mm |
| 2025-09-09 | 9.5 | 19.8 | 45.7 mm | 22.2 mm |
| 2025-09-10 | 10.1 | 23.0 | 45.9 mm | 24.3 mm |
| 2025-09-11 | 11.9 | 25.7 | 45.9 mm | 27.1 mm |
| 2025-09-12 | 15.5 | 28.4 | 45.9 mm | 29.2 mm |
| 2025-09-13 | 21.1 | 30.7 | 47.9 mm | 31.5 mm |
| 2025-09-14 | 22.0 | 33.3 | 54.4 mm | 33.3 mm |
| 2025-09-15 | 22.0 | 35.9 | 59.6 mm | 36.0 mm |
| 2025-09-16 | 22.4 | 38.8 | 61.2 mm | 37.4 mm |
| 2025-09-17 | 25.8 | 42.0 | 65.9 mm | 39.0 mm |
| 2025-09-18 | 27.4 | 45.0 | 67.8 mm | 40.9 mm |
| 2025-09-19 | 31.3 | 47.9 | 69.1 mm | 42.9 mm |
| 2025-09-20 | 36.3 | 51.1 | 69.6 mm | 44.6 mm |
| 2025-09-21 | 40.5 | 54.1 | 69.7 mm | 47.2 mm |
| 2025-09-22 | 45.1 | 56.4 | 70.0 mm | 51.0 mm |
| 2025-09-23 | 50.2 | 59.0 | 70.0 mm | 53.1 mm |
| 2025-09-24 | 57.9 | 62.4 | 70.1 mm | 54.1 mm |
| 2025-09-25 | 65.0 | 65.4 | 70.1 mm | 56.3 mm |
| 2025-09-26 | 69.8 | 69.0 | 70.1 mm | 58.1 mm |
| 2025-09-27 | 74.0 | 71.7 | 70.2 mm | 60.5 mm |
| 2025-09-28 | 77.5 | 74.7 | 71.8 mm | 62.5 mm |
| 2025-09-29 | 80.2 | 78.2 | 73.2 mm | 64.4 mm |
| 2025-09-30 | 83.0 | 81.6 | 73.5 mm | 67.6 mm |
| 2025-10-01 | 86.2 | 85.1 | 73.9 mm | 69.5 mm |
| 2025-10-02 | 91.2 | 88.9 | 73.9 mm | 70.8 mm |
| 2025-10-03 | 97.4 | 92.7 | 74.0 mm | 72.0 mm |
| 2025-10-04 | 103.5 | 96.5 | 78.6 mm | 73.4 mm |
| 2025-10-05 | 104.6 | 99.6 | 81.6 mm | 75.0 mm |
| 2025-10-06 | 105.5 | 102.6 | 82.2 mm | 77.3 mm |
| 2025-10-07 | 108.6 | 106.3 | 82.5 mm | 79.0 mm |
| 2025-10-08 | 110.5 | 110.6 | 83.2 mm | 81.0 mm |
| 2025-10-09 | 113.8 | 114.6 | 83.4 mm | 82.6 mm |
| 2025-10-10 | 116.5 | 118.7 | 83.5 mm | 83.8 mm |
| 2025-10-11 | 120.6 | 122.7 | 83.5 mm | 84.9 mm |
| 2025-10-12 | 126.2 | 126.9 | 83.8 mm | 86.0 mm |
| 2025-10-13 | 131.8 | 131.5 | 83.9 mm | 86.8 mm |
| 2025-10-14 | 137.8 | 135.6 | 83.9 mm | 88.7 mm |
| 2025-10-15 | 145.1 | 140.2 | 84.2 mm | 89.8 mm |
| 2025-10-16 | 152.9 | 144.8 | 85.0 mm | 90.9 mm |
| 2025-10-17 | 163.3 | 149.1 | 86.4 mm | 92.0 mm |
| 2025-10-18 | 168.2 | 153.3 | 87.4 mm | 94.2 mm |
| 2025-10-19 | 170.0 | 157.7 | 90.5 mm | 95.8 mm |
| 2025-10-20 | 171.5 | 163.1 | 95.3 mm | 97.4 mm |
| 2025-10-21 | 173.9 | 168.8 | 97.9 mm | 98.8 mm |
| 2025-10-22 | 176.0 | 175.0 | 98.3 mm | 100.5 mm |
| 2025-10-23 | 182.2 | 180.5 | 98.7 mm | 101.9 mm |
| 2025-10-24 | 186.5 | 185.3 | 100.9 mm | 103.3 mm |
| 2025-10-25 | 189.9 | 190.3 | 103.4 mm | 104.0 mm |
| 2025-10-26 | 192.7 | 195.8 | 103.8 mm | 104.9 mm |
| 2025-10-27 | 195.8 | 201.3 | 104.0 mm | 106.4 mm |
| 2025-10-28 | 203.9 | 207.3 | 104.0 mm | 107.5 mm |
| 2025-10-29 | 210.7 | 212.7 | 104.4 mm | 108.6 mm |
| 2025-10-30 | 216.8 | 217.7 | 105.0 mm | 109.6 mm |
| 2025-10-31 | 223.9 | 222.5 | 107.4 mm | 111.1 mm |
| 2025-11-01 | 226.5 | 226.9 | 111.4 mm | 112.3 mm |
| 2025-11-02 | 229.1 | 232.2 | 112.0 mm | 113.6 mm |
| 2025-11-03 | 233.7 | 238.1 | 112.1 mm | 114.9 mm |
| 2025-11-04 | 240.6 | 244.4 | 112.3 mm | 116.1 mm |
| 2025-11-05 | 246.6 | 250.8 | 118.8 mm | 117.9 mm |
| 2025-11-06 | 251.4 | 256.6 | 124.7 mm | 118.8 mm |
| 2025-11-07 | 255.1 | 262.4 | 126.4 mm | 120.3 mm |
| 2025-11-08 | 258.4 | 268.3 | 127.0 mm | 121.4 mm |
| 2025-11-09 | 261.8 | 274.8 | 127.0 mm | 122.3 mm |
| 2025-11-10 | 267.0 | 281.9 | 127.1 mm | 124.1 mm |
| 2025-11-11 | 275.5 | 289.0 | 127.1 mm | 125.4 mm |
| 2025-11-12 | 281.7 | 296.1 | 127.1 mm | 126.0 mm |
| 2025-11-13 | 286.6 | 302.7 | 127.1 mm | 127.1 mm |
| 2025-11-14 | 290.8 | 309.6 | 127.5 mm | 128.1 mm |
| 2025-11-15 | 294.7 | 317.3 | 128.0 mm | 129.3 mm |
| 2025-11-16 | 299.5 | 324.9 | 128.0 mm | 130.0 mm |
| 2025-11-17 | 307.0 | 332.3 | 128.0 mm | 131.0 mm |
| 2025-11-18 | 314.2 | 338.4 | 128.0 mm | 132.8 mm |
| 2025-11-19 | 320.8 | 344.6 | 131.1 mm | 134.4 mm |
| 2025-11-20 | 327.0 | 350.8 | 139.6 mm | 136.0 mm |
| 2025-11-21 | 334.0 | 357.7 | 140.8 mm | 137.3 mm |
| 2025-11-22 | 340.1 | 365.8 | 145.4 mm | 138.1 mm |
| 2025-11-23 | 346.3 | 374.2 | 151.3 mm | 139.2 mm |
| 2025-11-24 | 351.4 | 382.4 | 154.0 mm | 140.0 mm |
| 2025-11-25 | 356.5 | 389.7 | 154.6 mm | 141.0 mm |
| 2025-11-26 | 362.5 | 396.7 | 155.3 mm | 141.8 mm |
| 2025-11-27 | 367.3 | 403.9 | 155.5 mm | 143.0 mm |
| 2025-11-28 | 372.5 | 411.6 | 155.9 mm | 144.0 mm |
| 2025-11-29 | 378.6 | 419.1 | 156.0 mm | 145.2 mm |
| 2025-11-30 | 386.3 | 425.8 | 156.0 mm | 146.4 mm |
| 2025-12-01 | 398.3 | 432.2 | 156.0 mm | 147.9 mm |
| 2025-12-02 | 408.6 | 438.9 | 156.0 mm | 148.4 mm |
| 2025-12-03 | 418.4 | 446.3 | 156.1 mm | 148.9 mm |
| 2025-12-04 | 426.7 | 454.0 | 156.1 mm | 150.2 mm |
| 2025-12-05 | 434.4 | 461.7 | 156.4 mm | 151.9 mm |
| 2025-12-06 | 441.6 | 469.2 | 156.5 mm | 154.2 mm |
| 2025-12-07 | 451.5 | 476.6 | 156.6 mm | 155.5 mm |
| 2025-12-08 | 458.4 | 484.0 | 157.5 mm | 156.1 mm |
| 2025-12-09 | 465.7 | 491.5 | 157.8 mm | 156.7 mm |
| 2025-12-10 | 475.2 | 499.6 | 157.8 mm | 157.4 mm |
| 2025-12-11 | 485.7 | 508.3 | 157.8 mm | 158.5 mm |
| 2025-12-12 | 495.2 | 517.1 | 157.8 mm | 160.2 mm |
| 2025-12-13 | 503.9 | 525.6 | 157.8 mm | 162.2 mm |
| 2025-12-14 | 516.6 | 534.2 | 157.8 mm | 162.6 mm |
| 2025-12-15 | 533.1 | 543.4 | 158.2 mm | 162.9 mm |
| 2025-12-16 | 549.3 | 552.2 | 158.9 mm | 163.4 mm |
| 2025-12-17 | 559.8 | 561.4 | 159.3 mm | 164.3 mm |
| 2025-12-18 | 567.9 | 570.8 | 159.5 mm | 164.9 mm |
| 2025-12-19 | 576.3 | 579.6 | 159.5 mm | 165.7 mm |
| 2025-12-20 | 582.1 | 588.3 | 160.0 mm | 166.5 mm |
| 2025-12-21 | 587.6 | 596.8 | 160.1 mm | 167.2 mm |
| 2025-12-22 | 593.9 | 605.6 | 161.0 mm | 167.7 mm |
| 2025-12-23 | 601.1 | 615.0 | 161.0 mm | 168.4 mm |
| 2025-12-24 | 611.6 | 624.0 | 161.0 mm | 169.0 mm |
| 2025-12-25 | 626.2 | 633.2 | 161.0 mm | 169.7 mm |
| 2025-12-26 | 636.9 | 642.9 | 161.1 mm | 170.0 mm |
| 2025-12-27 | 643.5 | 653.3 | 161.3 mm | 170.5 mm |
| 2025-12-28 | 649.1 | 663.3 | 161.4 mm | 171.1 mm |
| 2025-12-29 | 655.8 | 673.2 | 161.6 mm | 171.8 mm |
| 2025-12-30 | 663.4 | 682.8 | 161.6 mm | 172.0 mm |
| 2025-12-31 | 672.5 | 692.5 | 161.6 mm | 172.3 mm |
| 2026-01-01 | 682.3 | 702.1 | 161.6 mm | 172.6 mm |
| 2026-01-02 | 692.5 | 711.6 | 161.6 mm | 172.9 mm |
| 2026-01-03 | 703.3 | 721.2 | 161.6 mm | 173.5 mm |
| 2026-01-04 | 715.9 | 730.2 | 161.6 mm | 174.0 mm |
| 2026-01-05 | 727.1 | 739.9 | 161.6 mm | 175.1 mm |
| 2026-01-06 | 735.0 | 750.6 | 161.7 mm | 176.2 mm |
| 2026-01-07 | 743.8 | 761.2 | 161.7 mm | 176.6 mm |
| 2026-01-08 | 754.2 | 772.1 | 161.7 mm | 176.9 mm |
| 2026-01-09 | 760.7 | 783.0 | 161.8 mm | 177.1 mm |
| 2026-01-10 | 767.7 | 792.8 | 161.9 mm | 177.4 mm |
| 2026-01-11 | 777.3 | 803.3 | 161.9 mm | 177.6 mm |
| 2026-01-12 | 789.0 | 813.7 | 162.0 mm | 177.7 mm |
| 2026-01-13 | 798.4 | 823.2 | 163.5 mm | 178.5 mm |
| 2026-01-14 | 807.7 | 833.3 | 163.8 mm | 179.0 mm |
| 2026-01-15 | 819.0 | 843.6 | 163.8 mm | 179.9 mm |
| 2026-01-16 | 833.6 | 854.3 | 163.8 mm | 180.9 mm |
| 2026-01-17 | 843.6 | 865.0 | 164.1 mm | 181.7 mm |
| 2026-01-18 | 850.1 | 875.3 | 164.5 mm | 182.3 mm |
| 2026-01-19 | 857.9 | 884.6 | 164.5 mm | 183.3 mm |
| 2026-01-20 | 868.4 | 894.3 | 164.6 mm | 184.2 mm |
| 2026-01-21 | 880.8 | 904.6 | 164.6 mm | 185.4 mm |
| 2026-01-22 | 896.1 | 914.5 | 164.6 mm | 186.1 mm |
| 2026-01-23 | 905.5 | 924.4 | 164.9 mm | 186.9 mm |
| 2026-01-24 | 914.3 | 934.0 | 164.9 mm | 188.2 mm |
| 2026-01-25 | 925.3 | 943.6 | 165.1 mm | 189.0 mm |
| 2026-01-26 | 933.2 | 953.6 | 166.0 mm | 189.3 mm |
| 2026-01-27 | 939.3 | 963.9 | 166.4 mm | 189.5 mm |
| 2026-01-28 | 947.9 | 975.0 | 166.5 mm | 189.7 mm |
| 2026-01-29 | 958.9 | 985.7 | 166.5 mm | 190.3 mm |
| 2026-01-30 | 970.5 | 996.0 | 166.5 mm | 191.3 mm |
| 2026-01-31 | 978.8 | 1006.4 | 167.2 mm | 192.0 mm |
| 2026-02-01 | 988.6 | 1017.0 | 167.2 mm | 192.7 mm |
| 2026-02-02 | 1002.8 | 1027.3 | 167.2 mm | 193.2 mm |
| 2026-02-03 | 1011.2 | 1038.1 | 167.5 mm | 193.5 mm |
| 2026-02-04 | 1019.4 | 1048.4 | 167.6 mm | 193.8 mm |
| 2026-02-05 | 1029.3 | 1058.9 | 167.6 mm | 193.9 mm |
| 2026-02-06 | 1039.2 | 1068.9 | 167.6 mm | 194.4 mm |
| 2026-02-07 | 1048.3 | 1078.9 | 167.6 mm | 195.2 mm |
| 2026-02-08 | 1057.4 | 1089.1 | 167.6 mm | 195.8 mm |
| 2026-02-09 | 1070.4 | 1099.7 | 167.8 mm | 196.7 mm |
| 2026-02-10 | 1078.8 | 1110.2 | 168.6 mm | 199.0 mm |
| 2026-02-11 | 1086.3 | 1121.1 | 169.0 mm | 200.0 mm |
| 2026-02-12 | 1093.4 | 1132.3 | 169.1 mm | 200.3 mm |
| 2026-02-13 | 1103.2 | 1142.7 | 169.2 mm | 200.8 mm |
| 2026-02-14 | 1114.9 | 1153.2 | 169.6 mm | 201.4 mm |
| 2026-02-15 | 1126.2 | 1163.7 | 171.6 mm | 201.9 mm |
| 2026-02-16 | 1133.9 | 1174.4 | 172.1 mm | 202.1 mm |
| 2026-02-17 | 1142.0 | 1184.9 | 172.1 mm | 203.3 mm |
| 2026-02-18 | 1153.8 | 1194.9 | 172.1 mm | 203.9 mm |
| 2026-02-19 | 1168.4 | 1204.8 | 172.2 mm | 204.2 mm |
| 2026-02-20 | 1180.6 | 1214.8 | 172.2 mm | 205.1 mm |
| 2026-02-21 | 1189.9 | 1225.3 | 172.3 mm | 205.4 mm |
| 2026-02-22 | 1196.6 | 1236.1 | 172.3 mm | 205.9 mm |
| 2026-02-23 | 1204.2 | 1246.7 | 172.3 mm | 206.4 mm |
| 2026-02-24 | 1213.8 | 1257.1 | 172.3 mm | 207.2 mm |
| 2026-02-25 | 1228.7 | 1267.3 | 172.3 mm | 208.3 mm |
| 2026-02-26 | 1242.9 | 1277.3 | 172.8 mm | 209.3 mm |
| 2026-02-27 | 1257.8 | 1287.6 | 172.8 mm | 210.1 mm |
| 2026-02-28 | 1265.5 | 1298.1 | 172.9 mm | 210.5 mm |
| 2026-03-01 | 1271.8 | 1308.5 | 173.0 mm | 211.2 mm |
| 2026-03-02 | 1279.4 | 1319.0 | 173.0 mm | 212.1 mm |
| 2026-03-03 | 1289.1 | 1328.9 | 173.0 mm | 212.4 mm |
| 2026-03-04 | 1301.3 | 1338.4 | 173.0 mm | 212.6 mm |
| 2026-03-05 | 1310.8 | 1348.4 | 173.0 mm | 212.8 mm |
| 2026-03-06 | 1320.1 | 1359.1 | 173.0 mm | 212.9 mm |
| 2026-03-07 | 1333.5 | 1370.2 | 173.0 mm | 213.4 mm |
| 2026-03-08 | 1346.3 | 1380.8 | 173.0 mm | 214.4 mm |
| 2026-03-09 | 1356.0 | 1391.4 | 173.0 mm | 214.9 mm |
| 2026-03-10 | 1363.3 | 1401.3 | 173.5 mm | 216.1 mm |
| 2026-03-11 | 1369.9 | 1410.8 | 174.9 mm | 217.3 mm |
| 2026-03-12 | 1377.0 | 1420.5 | 175.8 mm | 217.9 mm |
| 2026-03-13 | 1384.8 | 1430.1 | 176.7 mm | 218.6 mm |
| 2026-03-14 | 1392.6 | 1439.5 | 179.0 mm | 219.5 mm |
| 2026-03-15 | 1402.1 | 1449.3 | 180.5 mm | 221.1 mm |
| 2026-03-16 | 1411.5 | 1458.6 | 181.8 mm | 222.1 mm |
| 2026-03-17 | 1423.4 | 1467.7 | 181.9 mm | 223.1 mm |
| 2026-03-18 | 1436.7 | 1476.6 | 182.7 mm | 224.4 mm |
| 2026-03-19 | 1451.2 | 1485.5 | 182.8 mm | 226.0 mm |
| 2026-03-20 | 1461.5 | 1494.9 | 182.9 mm | 228.0 mm |
| 2026-03-21 | 1473.8 | 1504.4 | 182.9 mm | 229.9 mm |
| 2026-03-22 | 1480.9 | 1513.7 | 183.6 mm | 231.6 mm |
| 2026-03-23 | 1487.0 | 1522.1 | 184.6 mm | 233.6 mm |
| 2026-03-24 | 1493.0 | 1530.3 | 184.7 mm | 234.4 mm |
| 2026-03-25 | 1500.4 | 1538.4 | 184.7 mm | 235.2 mm |
| 2026-03-26 | 1509.6 | 1546.4 | 184.8 mm | 236.7 mm |
| 2026-03-27 | 1518.9 | 1554.7 | 188.6 mm | 238.1 mm |
| 2026-03-28 | 1524.5 | 1562.1 | 213.2 mm | 238.7 mm |
| 2026-03-29 | 1534.4 | 1569.8 | 221.6 mm | 239.8 mm |
| 2026-03-30 | 1541.8 | 1577.2 | 223.9 mm | 240.5 mm |
| 2026-03-31 | 1547.9 | 1584.1 | 224.8 mm | 242.5 mm |
| 2026-04-01 | 1553.4 | 1591.6 | 224.9 mm | 246.3 mm |
| 2026-04-02 | 1559.5 | 1599.5 | 225.2 mm | 248.4 mm |
| 2026-04-03 | 1569.2 | 1607.6 | 225.4 mm | 249.2 mm |
| 2026-04-04 | 1577.4 | 1615.9 | 225.4 mm | 249.6 mm |
| 2026-04-05 | 1584.6 | 1623.6 | 226.0 mm | 250.1 mm |
| 2026-04-06 | 1589.3 | 1631.1 | 226.4 mm | 250.8 mm |
| 2026-04-07 | 1594.0 | 1638.6 | 226.5 mm | 251.6 mm |
| 2026-04-08 | 1599.1 | 1646.5 | 226.6 mm | 252.4 mm |
| 2026-04-09 | 1604.5 | 1654.5 | 227.4 mm | 253.7 mm |
| 2026-04-10 | 1608.3 | 1662.8 | 227.5 mm | 255.6 mm |
| 2026-04-11 | 1614.2 | 1671.0 | 227.5 mm | 257.3 mm |
| 2026-04-12 | 1622.3 | 1678.8 | 227.5 mm | 259.1 mm |
| 2026-04-13 | 1630.4 | 1686.4 | 227.5 mm | 260.4 mm |
| 2026-04-14 | 1638.4 | 1694.4 | 227.6 mm | 261.1 mm |
| 2026-04-15 | 1644.8 | 1702.2 | 227.9 mm | 262.0 mm |
| 2026-04-16 | 1651.3 | 1709.9 | 228.0 mm | 263.4 mm |
| 2026-04-17 | 1661.6 | 1717.4 | 228.2 mm | 265.7 mm |
| 2026-04-18 | 1667.0 | 1724.8 | 229.5 mm | 267.1 mm |
| 2026-04-19 | 1671.5 | 1731.3 | 229.5 mm | 268.5 mm |
| 2026-04-20 | 1677.9 | 1737.7 | 231.4 mm | 269.6 mm |
| 2026-04-21 | 1679.2 | 1744.6 | 237.2 mm | 270.6 mm |
| 2026-04-22 | 1682.7 | 1751.3 | 237.3 mm | 272.7 mm |
| 2026-04-23 | 1687.1 | 1757.6 | 239.1 mm | 274.2 mm |
| 2026-04-24 | 1691.6 | 1763.7 | 239.3 mm | 274.9 mm |
| 2026-04-25 | 1697.0 | 1770.0 | 239.3 mm | 275.8 mm |
| 2026-04-26 | 1703.1 | 1776.0 | 239.4 mm | 276.8 mm |
| 2026-04-27 | 1706.6 | 1781.5 | 242.5 mm | 278.1 mm |
| 2026-04-28 | 1711.7 | 1786.9 | 247.4 mm | 279.3 mm |
| 2026-04-29 | 1716.8 | 1792.5 | 249.9 mm | 280.4 mm |
| 2026-04-30 | 1722.3 | 1797.9 | 251.3 mm | 282.0 mm |
Forecast outlook
ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC
10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record
- GDD accumulation
- 16 GDDvs 21 GDD average
- Total rainfall
- 11.3 mmvs 26.2 mm average
No unusually hot or wet period stands out in the short-range forecast.
Sun8/30
21°Cavg 16°C
14°Cavg 7°C
+7 GDD
0.1 mm
Mon8/31
20°Cavg 16°C
10°Cavg 7°C
+4 GDD
5.1 mm
Tue9/1
14°Cavg 16°C
8°Cavg 7°C
+0 GDD
0.0 mm
Wed9/2
14°Cavg 16°C
8°Cavg 7°C
+1 GDD
1.8 mm
Thu9/3
17°Cavg 17°C
7°Cavg 7°C
+2 GDD
0.7 mm
Fri9/4
13°Cavg 16°C
6°Cavg 7°C
+0 GDD
0.2 mm
Sat9/5
12°Cavg 17°C
6°Cavg 7°C
+0 GDD
1.2 mm
Sun9/6
15°Cavg 16°C
9°Cavg 8°C
+1 GDD
2.1 mm
Mon9/7
15°Cavg 17°C
8°Cavg 7°C
+1 GDD
0.0 mm
Tue9/8
17°Cavg 17°C
5°Cavg 8°C
+0 GDD
0.0 mm
Data and methods
Show data sources and model assumptions
Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.
Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.
This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.
Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed August 23, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.
The Margaret River & Great Southern model uses a September 1–April 30 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 35°C.
The historical series uses 2 ERA5 locations, 6 temperature stations, and 71 rain stations. Interpretation confidence: high. Geometry confidence: reviewed-approximate. Rules: margaret-river-catalog-v2-2026-07.