Australia · Multi-region weather view
Yarra Valley & Mornington Peninsula
Sign in to followCool Victorian vineyards east and southeast of Melbourne.
Maritime air and elevation keep the season cooler and wetter than inland Victoria.
Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Aug 20, 2026.
Current conditions
Observations through Aug 30, 2026 · 06:00 UTC
Temperature13.4°C
Dew Point8.9°C
Relative Humidity75%
24h Rainfall0.1 mmmodeled IFS total through Aug 29
Vintage explorer
Mean temperature16.0°C
Temperature anomaly-0.1°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days1465base 10°C
Hot days2≥ 35°C
What stood out in 2002
Less rain often lowers disease pressure, but vines may depend more on stored soil water or irrigation.
Drier than baseline · Moderate confidence
Growing-season precipitation was 149 mm below the 1991–2020 baseline.
Less rain often lowers disease pressure, but vines may depend more on stored soil water or irrigation.
How unusual was 2002?
The ranking compares vintages that meet the data-coverage threshold and use the same source, regional rules, and 1991-2020 baseline.
Growing-season temperature
16th coolest of 35 vintages Cooler than 19 of 34 other vintages 16.0°CGrowing-season rainfall
6th driest of 35 vintages Drier than 29 of 34 other vintages 399.9 mmHeat accumulation
16th lowest of 35 vintages Lower than 19 of 34 other vintages 1465 GDDHot days
12th fewest of 35 vintages Fewer than 20 of 34 other vintages 2 days2002 month by month
Compared with 1991–2020
Follow heat accumulation, rainfall, frost exposure, and the region’s growing and harvest windows in calendar order.
Frost watch
Growing season
Harvest window
-
1–30 Frost watchGrowing seasonHeat accumulation
2002 61 GDDTypical 54 GDDRainfall
2002 72.6 mmTypical 87.8 mm- 2002 freezing days
- 0
- Typical
- 0.0
Close to the typical monthly pattern.
-
1–31 Frost watchGrowing seasonHeat accumulation
2002 101 GDDTypical 108 GDDRainfall
2002 65.6 mmTypical 77.6 mm- 2002 freezing days
- 0
- Typical
- 0.0
Close to the typical monthly pattern.
-
1–30 Frost watchGrowing seasonHeat accumulation
2002 172 GDDTypical 167 GDDRainfall
2002 41.5 mmTypical 79.8 mm- 2002 freezing days
- 0
- Typical
- 0.0
Drier than the typical month.
-
1–31 Growing seasonHeat accumulation
2002 230 GDDTypical 228 GDDRainfall
2002 35.6 mmTypical 72.0 mmDrier than the typical month.
-
1–31 Growing seasonHeat accumulation
2002 289 GDDTypical 290 GDDRainfall
2002 29.4 mmTypical 56.8 mmDrier than the typical month.
-
1–28 Growing seasonHarvest windowHeat accumulation
2002 261 GDDTypical 268 GDDRainfall
2002 23.1 mmTypical 55.6 mmDrier than the typical month.
-
1–31 Growing seasonHarvest windowHeat accumulation
2002 221 GDDTypical 235 GDDRainfall
2002 53.1 mmTypical 51.2 mmClose to the typical monthly pattern.
-
1–30 Growing seasonHarvest windowHeat accumulation
2002 131 GDDTypical 136 GDDRainfall
2002 79.0 mmTypical 68.5 mmClose to the typical monthly pattern.
View milestone calendar data as a table
| Month | 2002 GDD | Typical GDD | 2002 rainfall | Typical rainfall | 2002 freezing days | Typical freezing days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2002 | 61 GDD | 54 GDD | 72.6 mm | 87.8 mm | 0 | 0.0 |
| October 2002 | 101 GDD | 108 GDD | 65.6 mm | 77.6 mm | 0 | 0.0 |
| November 2002 | 172 GDD | 167 GDD | 41.5 mm | 79.8 mm | 0 | 0.0 |
| December 2002 | 230 GDD | 228 GDD | 35.6 mm | 72.0 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
| January 2003 | 289 GDD | 290 GDD | 29.4 mm | 56.8 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
| February 2003 | 261 GDD | 268 GDD | 23.1 mm | 55.6 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
| March 2003 | 221 GDD | 235 GDD | 53.1 mm | 51.2 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
| April 2003 | 131 GDD | 136 GDD | 79.0 mm | 68.5 mm | Outside frost window | Outside frost window |
Calendar data and method
Monthly values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 daily reanalysis. “Typical” is the mean monthly total across 30 baseline seasons. GDD is counted only inside the configured growing window; freezing days are counted only inside the frost-watch window; rainfall covers every displayed calendar day.
Selected-vintage coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.
Replay the 2002 growing season
242 daily regional observations
Move through the season to follow temperature, rainfall, accumulated heat, and recorded weather events day by day.
Mean temperature
Daily rainfall
Season GDD
Season rainfall
No detected event on this date.
Replay data and method
Daily values are weighted across every configured regional sample using stored Google ARCO ERA5 reanalysis. Coverage is 100%. Source rows were last retrieved Aug 20, 2026.
Closest weather matches
These years had the most similar growing-season and harvest weather.
Closest match
2014
Most alike in Harvest precipitation and Growing degree days.
- Harvest precipitation
- less rain: 0.4 mm
- Growing degree days
- higher: 57 GDD
Largest difference: Growing-season precipitation — more rain
View 2014 →Second closest
1997
Most alike in Harvest precipitation and Growing degree days.
- Harvest precipitation
- more rain: 0.8 mm
- Growing degree days
- lower: 60 GDD
Largest difference: Hot-day count — more hot days
View 1997 →Third closest
1999
Most alike in Hot-day count and Growing degree days.
- Hot-day count
- more hot days: 1 day
- Growing degree days
- higher: 82 GDD
Largest difference: Harvest precipitation — less rain
View 1999 →
How similar years are calculated
Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 34 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.
Measures used: Growing-season mean temperature (20%); Growing degree days (15%); Hot-day count (15%); Growing-season precipitation (20%); Harvest precipitation (20%). Measures omitted because they did not vary: Spring frost exposure.
Calculated distances: 2014 0.397; 1997 0.472; 1999 0.500.
View historical chart data as a table
| Year | Temperature anomaly | Rainfall anomaly | Hot days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | -0.7°C | -6 mm | 1 |
| 1992 | -0.5°C | +252 mm | 2 |
| 1993 | -0.9°C | +238 mm | 1 |
| 1994 | -0.8°C | +48 mm | 2 |
| 1995 | -1.7°C | +161 mm | 0 |
| 1996 | -0.5°C | -114 mm | 7 |
| 1997 | -0.3°C | -94 mm | 4 |
| 1998 | -0.2°C | +32 mm | 2 |
| 1999 | +0.3°C | -85 mm | 3 |
| 2000 | +0.6°C | +84 mm | 3 |
| 2001 | -0.8°C | -20 mm | 0 |
| 2002 | -0.1°C | -149 mm | 2 |
| 2003 | -0.7°C | -70 mm | 4 |
| 2004 | -0.2°C | +76 mm | 0 |
| 2005 | +0.4°C | -8 mm | 5 |
| 2006 | +0.6°C | -247 mm | 3 |
| 2007 | +0.5°C | -116 mm | 7 |
| 2008 | +0.1°C | -161 mm | 5 |
| 2009 | +1.0°C | +41 mm | 4 |
| 2010 | -0.3°C | +326 mm | 3 |
| 2011 | +0.4°C | +181 mm | 1 |
| 2012 | +0.7°C | -149 mm | 5 |
| 2013 | +0.6°C | +12 mm | 9 |
| 2014 | +0.2°C | -73 mm | 3 |
| 2015 | +1.3°C | -171 mm | 7 |
| 2016 | +0.3°C | +93 mm | 0 |
| 2017 | +0.9°C | -58 mm | 4 |
| 2018 | +0.7°C | -185 mm | 4 |
| 2019 | -0.5°C | +129 mm | 6 |
| 2020 | -0.3°C | +35 mm | 1 |
| 2021 | +0.2°C | +57 mm | 0 |
| 2022 | -0.5°C | +206 mm | 1 |
| 2023 | +0.2°C | +58 mm | 0 |
| 2024 | +1.1°C | -124 mm | 3 |
| 2025 | -0.0°C | +9 mm | 3 |
| 2026 | +0.0°C | +0 mm | 0 |
winter
9.9°C
+0.3°C vs baseline
176 mm rain · -69 mm
spring
13.6°C
+0.1°C vs baseline
179 mm rain · -65 mm
summer
18.7°C
-0.1°C vs baseline
88 mm rain · -96 mm
harvest
16.9°C
-0.3°C vs baseline
155 mm rain · -20 mm
Weather events
Periods that crossed one of the published regional thresholds, shown in date order.
Dry spell
- Duration
- 14 days
- Total rain
- 1.7 mm
- Daily cutoff
- 1.0 mm/day
Dry spell
- Duration
- 23 days
- Total rain
- 3.9 mm
- Daily cutoff
- 1.0 mm/day
Dry spell
- Duration
- 24 days
- Total rain
- 2.0 mm
- Daily cutoff
- 1.0 mm/day
Dry spell
- Duration
- 15 days
- Total rain
- 1.9 mm
- Daily cutoff
- 1.0 mm/day
Concentrated harvest rain
- Total rain
- 24.7 mm
- Highest 3-day total
- 24.7 mm
- Trigger threshold
- 24.3 mm
A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.
Concentrated harvest rain
- Total rain
- 56.7 mm
- Highest 3-day total
- 37.2 mm
- Trigger threshold
- 24.3 mm
A large share of the season's rain fell during the harvest period.
How events are detected
Weather & Vines combined regional series; method event-timeline-v2-2026-07, rules yarra-valley-catalog-v2-2026-07. Source last updated Aug 1, 2026, calculated Aug 29, 2026. Each configured point must have at least 95.0% coverage.
1991–present
Climate change
Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.
Observed record
Historical trends, 1991–2025
Growing degree days changed +77.1 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +23.8 to +130.4 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.
Weighted median: 70% SSP2-4.5 · 15% SSP1-2.6 · 15% SSP3-7.0
Shaded central 80% model range using the same weights.
How it is measured: Across the September 1–April 30 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.
Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.
View annual growing degree days data
| Vintage | Growing degree days | Change from 1991–2020 |
|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 1334 GDD | -151 GDD |
| 1992 | 1390 GDD | -95 GDD |
| 1993 | 1267 GDD | -218 GDD |
| 1994 | 1311 GDD | -174 GDD |
| 1995 | 1097 GDD | -388 GDD |
| 1996 | 1377 GDD | -108 GDD |
| 1997 | 1405 GDD | -80 GDD |
| 1998 | 1432 GDD | -53 GDD |
| 1999 | 1548 GDD | +63 GDD |
| 2000 | 1616 GDD | +131 GDD |
| 2001 | 1291 GDD | -194 GDD |
| 2002 | 1465 GDD | -20 GDD |
| 2003 | 1338 GDD | -147 GDD |
| 2004 | 1423 GDD | -62 GDD |
| 2005 | 1569 GDD | +84 GDD |
| 2006 | 1625 GDD | +140 GDD |
| 2007 | 1604 GDD | +119 GDD |
| 2008 | 1497 GDD | +12 GDD |
| 2009 | 1717 GDD | +232 GDD |
| 2010 | 1419 GDD | -67 GDD |
| 2011 | 1574 GDD | +89 GDD |
| 2012 | 1639 GDD | +154 GDD |
| 2013 | 1618 GDD | +133 GDD |
| 2014 | 1522 GDD | +37 GDD |
| 2015 | 1803 GDD | +318 GDD |
| 2016 | 1540 GDD | +55 GDD |
| 2017 | 1703 GDD | +218 GDD |
| 2018 | 1659 GDD | +174 GDD |
| 2019 | 1371 GDD | -114 GDD |
| 2020 | 1397 GDD | -88 GDD |
| 2021 | 1543 GDD | +58 GDD |
| 2022 | 1370 GDD | -115 GDD |
| 2023 | 1534 GDD | +49 GDD |
| 2024 | 1752 GDD | +267 GDD |
| 2025 | 1470 GDD | -15 GDD |
- Growing-season mean temperature
- +0.33 °C per decade 95% interval +0.10 to +0.56
- Growing degree days
- +77.14 GDD per decade 95% interval +23.85 to +130.43
- Growing-season precipitation
- -12.51 mm per decade 95% interval -61.40 to +36.38
- Hot days
- +0.17 days per decade 95% interval -0.66 to +1.00
- Spring frost days
- No variation recorded
- Longest dry spell
- +1.39 days per decade 95% interval -0.03 to +2.81
Last Updated August 20, 2026
Model ensemble
Projected climate through 2075
Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.
Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.
| Period | Weighted median | Weighted central 80% | Models per pathway |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-2040 | +0.6°C | +0.3 to +0.9°C | 25 |
| 2041-2060 | +1.2°C | +0.7 to +1.6°C | 25 |
| 2061-2075 | +1.5°C | +1.1 to +2.2°C | 25 |
How pathways are combined
For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.
Last Updated June 29, 2025
Typical year · 1991–2020
When to visit
This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.
Deterministic IFS forecast
Next ten days
Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.
| Date | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | 13°C | 14°C | 19°C | 15°C | 14°C | 15°C | 15°C | 12°C | 12°C | 12°C |
| Low | 10°C | 10°C | 11°C | 12°C | 10°C | 7°C | 12°C | 10°C | 9°C | 7°C |
| Rain | 0.0 mm | 0.2 mm | 0.4 mm | 3.5 mm | 2.3 mm | 1.5 mm | 5.1 mm | 2.2 mm | 1.0 mm | 3.5 mm |
Across the typical year: Early February has the warmest median afternoon high (24.8°C); Early July has the coolest (12.4°C). Wet days are most frequent in Early August (61%) and least frequent in Early March (23%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.
Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%
Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.
Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.
View all 24 periods as a table
Scroll horizontally to view all columns.
| Period | Afternoon high, median (middle 50%) | Overnight low, median (middle 50%) | Wet-day frequency | Period rain, median (middle 50%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1–15 | 23.8°C (20.2–28.5°C) | 13.1°C (11.5–15.6°C) | 27% | 26.1 mm (13.4–35.7 mm) |
| Jan 16–31 | 24.6°C (21.2–28.1°C) | 13.8°C (11.9–15.8°C) | 28% | 27.6 mm (15.9–37.7 mm) |
| Feb 1–15 | 24.8°C (21.1–29.3°C) | 13.8°C (11.8–16.2°C) | 30% | 23.6 mm (7.7–42.9 mm) |
| Feb 16–29 | 24.0°C (20.8–27.9°C) | 13.6°C (11.9–15.7°C) | 25% | 19.1 mm (5.0–31.5 mm) |
| Mar 1–15 | 22.7°C (19.8–27.3°C) | 12.7°C (11.2–14.7°C) | 23% | 15.8 mm (6.8–29.2 mm) |
| Mar 16–31 | 21.3°C (18.4–24.9°C) | 11.7°C (10.1–13.5°C) | 33% | 27.6 mm (18.3–37.4 mm) |
| Apr 1–15 | 19.4°C (16.9–22.7°C) | 10.3°C (8.6–11.8°C) | 35% | 27.4 mm (16.2–47.1 mm) |
| Apr 16–30 | 18.0°C (15.8–20.5°C) | 9.3°C (7.4–11.1°C) | 36% | 28.6 mm (16.3–44.4 mm) |
| May 1–15 | 15.8°C (14.1–18.1°C) | 8.4°C (6.8–10.2°C) | 45% | 29.1 mm (19.7–56.7 mm) |
| May 16–31 | 14.8°C (13.3–16.5°C) | 8.0°C (6.0–9.6°C) | 45% | 37.3 mm (25.6–48.0 mm) |
| Jun 1–15 | 13.4°C (12.2–14.8°C) | 7.0°C (5.0–8.6°C) | 48% | 38.7 mm (30.4–47.9 mm) |
| Jun 16–30 | 12.8°C (11.4–13.8°C) | 6.6°C (4.3–8.2°C) | 48% | 32.1 mm (24.2–55.5 mm) |
| Jul 1–15 | 12.4°C (11.3–13.5°C) | 6.5°C (4.9–7.8°C) | 53% | 38.7 mm (28.1–51.8 mm) |
| Jul 16–31 | 12.4°C (11.3–13.5°C) | 6.2°C (4.4–7.6°C) | 53% | 34.9 mm (27.2–43.9 mm) |
| Aug 1–15 | 12.8°C (11.5–14.1°C) | 6.3°C (4.8–7.8°C) | 61% | 46.2 mm (36.6–57.1 mm) |
| Aug 16–31 | 13.5°C (12.1–15.7°C) | 6.1°C (4.6–7.8°C) | 48% | 43.6 mm (20.7–55.1 mm) |
| Sep 1–15 | 14.7°C (13.0–17.0°C) | 6.9°C (5.2–8.6°C) | 53% | 38.2 mm (29.3–61.5 mm) |
| Sep 16–30 | 15.7°C (13.6–18.0°C) | 7.3°C (5.8–9.2°C) | 51% | 39.3 mm (26.8–51.4 mm) |
| Oct 1–15 | 16.9°C (14.6–20.5°C) | 8.1°C (6.3–9.7°C) | 46% | 34.2 mm (25.6–50.0 mm) |
| Oct 16–31 | 17.9°C (15.4–21.2°C) | 8.7°C (7.0–10.4°C) | 44% | 36.1 mm (23.5–56.0 mm) |
| Nov 1–15 | 18.9°C (16.0–22.9°C) | 9.5°C (7.8–11.6°C) | 43% | 44.8 mm (33.7–59.7 mm) |
| Nov 16–30 | 20.8°C (18.1–25.4°C) | 10.5°C (8.6–12.8°C) | 34% | 26.8 mm (21.0–44.1 mm) |
| Dec 1–15 | 21.3°C (18.3–25.2°C) | 11.0°C (9.4–13.3°C) | 34% | 31.0 mm (19.8–48.8 mm) |
| Dec 16–31 | 22.2°C (19.4–26.5°C) | 12.0°C (10.2–13.9°C) | 32% | 31.5 mm (19.6–43.8 mm) |
Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.
Historical climatology Last Updated August 20, 2026
Most recent season
Growing season heat and rainfall
Sep 1, 2025–Apr 30, 2026
Growing degree days1469.6base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall558.2 mmweighted regional total
2025 season1991–2020 average
2025 season1991–2020 average
View growing-season accumulation data
| Date | Season GDD | 1991–2020 average GDD | Season rainfall | 1991–2020 average rainfall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 mm | 2.5 mm |
| 2025-09-02 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 mm | 5.1 mm |
| 2025-09-03 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.0 mm | 7.3 mm |
| 2025-09-04 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 8.5 mm | 10.0 mm |
| 2025-09-05 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 9.7 mm | 12.6 mm |
| 2025-09-06 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 9.8 mm | 15.0 mm |
| 2025-09-07 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 12.4 mm | 17.6 mm |
| 2025-09-08 | 15.7 | 10.9 | 15.7 mm | 21.0 mm |
| 2025-09-09 | 16.8 | 12.4 | 16.9 mm | 24.8 mm |
| 2025-09-10 | 16.8 | 13.5 | 17.3 mm | 27.8 mm |
| 2025-09-11 | 16.8 | 14.7 | 18.5 mm | 31.2 mm |
| 2025-09-12 | 17.4 | 16.7 | 19.7 mm | 35.4 mm |
| 2025-09-13 | 19.9 | 18.5 | 20.3 mm | 37.9 mm |
| 2025-09-14 | 23.7 | 20.6 | 20.4 mm | 40.5 mm |
| 2025-09-15 | 30.6 | 22.3 | 20.4 mm | 44.6 mm |
| 2025-09-16 | 35.0 | 24.0 | 26.9 mm | 48.1 mm |
| 2025-09-17 | 35.5 | 25.3 | 29.3 mm | 51.0 mm |
| 2025-09-18 | 36.4 | 27.2 | 29.3 mm | 53.6 mm |
| 2025-09-19 | 41.2 | 29.8 | 30.6 mm | 56.9 mm |
| 2025-09-20 | 41.2 | 31.6 | 33.9 mm | 60.1 mm |
| 2025-09-21 | 42.7 | 33.8 | 37.5 mm | 62.0 mm |
| 2025-09-22 | 42.7 | 36.5 | 44.3 mm | 64.5 mm |
| 2025-09-23 | 43.7 | 38.9 | 46.4 mm | 66.7 mm |
| 2025-09-24 | 45.7 | 40.9 | 47.9 mm | 68.7 mm |
| 2025-09-25 | 48.0 | 42.4 | 49.5 mm | 71.8 mm |
| 2025-09-26 | 53.2 | 43.8 | 51.2 mm | 75.1 mm |
| 2025-09-27 | 55.7 | 46.4 | 51.8 mm | 77.5 mm |
| 2025-09-28 | 56.3 | 48.8 | 52.3 mm | 79.9 mm |
| 2025-09-29 | 58.5 | 51.1 | 52.6 mm | 84.8 mm |
| 2025-09-30 | 62.7 | 53.6 | 55.4 mm | 87.7 mm |
| 2025-10-01 | 64.5 | 56.3 | 59.1 mm | 91.0 mm |
| 2025-10-02 | 64.5 | 59.6 | 66.9 mm | 92.8 mm |
| 2025-10-03 | 66.8 | 63.2 | 70.3 mm | 94.9 mm |
| 2025-10-04 | 70.9 | 66.5 | 70.5 mm | 96.6 mm |
| 2025-10-05 | 79.5 | 69.7 | 72.3 mm | 98.9 mm |
| 2025-10-06 | 82.3 | 72.9 | 78.8 mm | 101.1 mm |
| 2025-10-07 | 84.0 | 75.3 | 79.0 mm | 104.1 mm |
| 2025-10-08 | 87.8 | 77.5 | 79.0 mm | 107.5 mm |
| 2025-10-09 | 91.7 | 79.9 | 79.2 mm | 110.0 mm |
| 2025-10-10 | 97.1 | 82.9 | 79.4 mm | 112.8 mm |
| 2025-10-11 | 101.8 | 86.4 | 80.5 mm | 115.4 mm |
| 2025-10-12 | 104.4 | 90.0 | 86.4 mm | 117.1 mm |
| 2025-10-13 | 104.6 | 92.8 | 90.6 mm | 119.7 mm |
| 2025-10-14 | 106.6 | 96.2 | 90.8 mm | 122.5 mm |
| 2025-10-15 | 110.2 | 100.3 | 90.8 mm | 124.7 mm |
| 2025-10-16 | 118.3 | 103.8 | 91.3 mm | 127.7 mm |
| 2025-10-17 | 121.7 | 107.0 | 91.9 mm | 131.0 mm |
| 2025-10-18 | 124.2 | 110.7 | 92.0 mm | 132.9 mm |
| 2025-10-19 | 131.4 | 114.7 | 92.2 mm | 134.7 mm |
| 2025-10-20 | 134.8 | 118.3 | 96.4 mm | 137.7 mm |
| 2025-10-21 | 138.2 | 121.4 | 97.4 mm | 139.3 mm |
| 2025-10-22 | 142.6 | 124.7 | 105.3 mm | 142.0 mm |
| 2025-10-23 | 144.6 | 128.5 | 110.9 mm | 145.4 mm |
| 2025-10-24 | 146.2 | 133.3 | 111.5 mm | 148.6 mm |
| 2025-10-25 | 147.1 | 137.4 | 113.3 mm | 150.9 mm |
| 2025-10-26 | 151.2 | 141.0 | 128.3 mm | 153.1 mm |
| 2025-10-27 | 151.4 | 144.0 | 140.4 mm | 155.8 mm |
| 2025-10-28 | 151.4 | 147.6 | 140.5 mm | 157.9 mm |
| 2025-10-29 | 153.2 | 151.9 | 140.5 mm | 159.5 mm |
| 2025-10-30 | 157.4 | 156.8 | 140.5 mm | 161.2 mm |
| 2025-10-31 | 163.5 | 161.4 | 143.9 mm | 165.3 mm |
| 2025-11-01 | 169.3 | 166.3 | 145.0 mm | 168.2 mm |
| 2025-11-02 | 179.4 | 171.0 | 145.0 mm | 171.8 mm |
| 2025-11-03 | 182.6 | 175.2 | 158.9 mm | 174.7 mm |
| 2025-11-04 | 184.2 | 178.9 | 178.9 mm | 178.8 mm |
| 2025-11-05 | 186.9 | 183.2 | 183.6 mm | 182.0 mm |
| 2025-11-06 | 191.9 | 187.9 | 183.7 mm | 185.4 mm |
| 2025-11-07 | 199.9 | 192.7 | 185.6 mm | 188.6 mm |
| 2025-11-08 | 201.8 | 197.2 | 198.7 mm | 192.0 mm |
| 2025-11-09 | 203.3 | 202.2 | 209.4 mm | 193.4 mm |
| 2025-11-10 | 205.6 | 207.2 | 212.2 mm | 195.7 mm |
| 2025-11-11 | 205.6 | 212.3 | 229.6 mm | 198.1 mm |
| 2025-11-12 | 206.8 | 218.3 | 232.2 mm | 201.4 mm |
| 2025-11-13 | 211.6 | 223.6 | 232.3 mm | 205.2 mm |
| 2025-11-14 | 215.0 | 229.0 | 232.4 mm | 208.7 mm |
| 2025-11-15 | 220.8 | 233.9 | 234.7 mm | 210.7 mm |
| 2025-11-16 | 224.3 | 238.2 | 240.7 mm | 212.8 mm |
| 2025-11-17 | 226.1 | 243.9 | 247.8 mm | 213.8 mm |
| 2025-11-18 | 231.7 | 250.5 | 250.1 mm | 215.5 mm |
| 2025-11-19 | 237.2 | 257.8 | 250.9 mm | 217.3 mm |
| 2025-11-20 | 238.7 | 265.0 | 251.6 mm | 219.7 mm |
| 2025-11-21 | 240.7 | 271.2 | 252.0 mm | 222.3 mm |
| 2025-11-22 | 246.3 | 276.2 | 253.1 mm | 226.7 mm |
| 2025-11-23 | 251.8 | 281.3 | 266.7 mm | 230.3 mm |
| 2025-11-24 | 260.6 | 287.4 | 267.3 mm | 231.9 mm |
| 2025-11-25 | 269.6 | 294.8 | 267.8 mm | 233.6 mm |
| 2025-11-26 | 275.1 | 301.7 | 270.5 mm | 236.1 mm |
| 2025-11-27 | 279.3 | 308.6 | 273.3 mm | 239.3 mm |
| 2025-11-28 | 284.1 | 315.1 | 276.2 mm | 241.8 mm |
| 2025-11-29 | 287.8 | 321.6 | 294.2 mm | 243.6 mm |
| 2025-11-30 | 289.7 | 328.4 | 300.3 mm | 245.2 mm |
| 2025-12-01 | 290.8 | 335.2 | 309.7 mm | 247.2 mm |
| 2025-12-02 | 293.3 | 341.7 | 315.8 mm | 250.3 mm |
| 2025-12-03 | 301.1 | 348.4 | 316.2 mm | 254.0 mm |
| 2025-12-04 | 314.3 | 354.3 | 316.2 mm | 256.9 mm |
| 2025-12-05 | 322.3 | 360.6 | 316.3 mm | 259.4 mm |
| 2025-12-06 | 326.5 | 367.0 | 321.9 mm | 261.0 mm |
| 2025-12-07 | 328.9 | 373.9 | 324.9 mm | 263.3 mm |
| 2025-12-08 | 335.8 | 381.2 | 325.2 mm | 265.5 mm |
| 2025-12-09 | 341.7 | 388.6 | 325.9 mm | 267.7 mm |
| 2025-12-10 | 344.9 | 395.4 | 325.9 mm | 269.2 mm |
| 2025-12-11 | 349.4 | 402.2 | 325.9 mm | 271.1 mm |
| 2025-12-12 | 359.4 | 409.6 | 325.9 mm | 272.7 mm |
| 2025-12-13 | 370.1 | 417.1 | 326.8 mm | 275.6 mm |
| 2025-12-14 | 374.5 | 424.3 | 328.1 mm | 278.2 mm |
| 2025-12-15 | 377.2 | 431.7 | 328.7 mm | 280.2 mm |
| 2025-12-16 | 382.2 | 439.1 | 328.8 mm | 282.6 mm |
| 2025-12-17 | 391.2 | 446.5 | 328.8 mm | 284.5 mm |
| 2025-12-18 | 405.6 | 454.0 | 328.8 mm | 286.3 mm |
| 2025-12-19 | 419.8 | 462.2 | 329.1 mm | 288.9 mm |
| 2025-12-20 | 427.3 | 469.9 | 330.0 mm | 291.3 mm |
| 2025-12-21 | 433.3 | 477.8 | 343.2 mm | 293.9 mm |
| 2025-12-22 | 437.4 | 485.4 | 352.1 mm | 297.9 mm |
| 2025-12-23 | 442.1 | 493.1 | 353.0 mm | 301.1 mm |
| 2025-12-24 | 446.6 | 500.9 | 353.2 mm | 302.0 mm |
| 2025-12-25 | 449.4 | 508.6 | 353.7 mm | 303.6 mm |
| 2025-12-26 | 452.0 | 515.4 | 353.8 mm | 306.8 mm |
| 2025-12-27 | 456.6 | 522.3 | 353.9 mm | 310.5 mm |
| 2025-12-28 | 464.4 | 530.3 | 353.9 mm | 313.3 mm |
| 2025-12-29 | 475.2 | 538.5 | 353.9 mm | 314.3 mm |
| 2025-12-30 | 487.1 | 547.2 | 354.2 mm | 315.7 mm |
| 2025-12-31 | 491.7 | 556.7 | 354.5 mm | 317.1 mm |
| 2026-01-01 | 498.0 | 565.6 | 354.5 mm | 319.9 mm |
| 2026-01-02 | 505.8 | 574.1 | 354.5 mm | 322.3 mm |
| 2026-01-03 | 516.4 | 583.2 | 354.6 mm | 323.2 mm |
| 2026-01-04 | 523.6 | 592.1 | 354.7 mm | 324.8 mm |
| 2026-01-05 | 530.4 | 600.6 | 354.8 mm | 328.0 mm |
| 2026-01-06 | 539.7 | 609.3 | 354.8 mm | 330.6 mm |
| 2026-01-07 | 556.7 | 617.5 | 354.8 mm | 332.3 mm |
| 2026-01-08 | 571.4 | 625.6 | 354.8 mm | 334.1 mm |
| 2026-01-09 | 590.2 | 634.0 | 355.0 mm | 334.7 mm |
| 2026-01-10 | 598.9 | 644.0 | 355.5 mm | 335.6 mm |
| 2026-01-11 | 603.8 | 655.1 | 355.7 mm | 337.2 mm |
| 2026-01-12 | 610.1 | 664.2 | 355.7 mm | 338.5 mm |
| 2026-01-13 | 617.8 | 674.1 | 355.9 mm | 340.3 mm |
| 2026-01-14 | 627.8 | 683.9 | 355.9 mm | 342.8 mm |
| 2026-01-15 | 637.4 | 693.4 | 357.5 mm | 344.3 mm |
| 2026-01-16 | 646.6 | 702.7 | 357.9 mm | 345.4 mm |
| 2026-01-17 | 656.4 | 712.4 | 358.1 mm | 346.6 mm |
| 2026-01-18 | 666.7 | 721.5 | 358.1 mm | 347.6 mm |
| 2026-01-19 | 678.4 | 731.3 | 358.5 mm | 348.5 mm |
| 2026-01-20 | 689.6 | 742.4 | 358.6 mm | 351.0 mm |
| 2026-01-21 | 697.9 | 752.0 | 359.3 mm | 353.0 mm |
| 2026-01-22 | 703.3 | 761.8 | 360.3 mm | 354.5 mm |
| 2026-01-23 | 710.0 | 770.9 | 360.4 mm | 357.4 mm |
| 2026-01-24 | 723.6 | 780.2 | 360.4 mm | 359.1 mm |
| 2026-01-25 | 734.6 | 790.0 | 360.4 mm | 361.5 mm |
| 2026-01-26 | 747.1 | 800.1 | 360.4 mm | 363.1 mm |
| 2026-01-27 | 763.7 | 810.0 | 360.4 mm | 365.9 mm |
| 2026-01-28 | 774.8 | 819.9 | 360.4 mm | 368.1 mm |
| 2026-01-29 | 785.5 | 829.2 | 360.4 mm | 369.7 mm |
| 2026-01-30 | 799.6 | 839.0 | 360.4 mm | 372.0 mm |
| 2026-01-31 | 811.6 | 848.1 | 361.0 mm | 374.1 mm |
| 2026-02-01 | 817.3 | 857.6 | 362.1 mm | 375.9 mm |
| 2026-02-02 | 822.2 | 867.8 | 362.5 mm | 378.3 mm |
| 2026-02-03 | 830.9 | 878.3 | 362.5 mm | 382.1 mm |
| 2026-02-04 | 842.4 | 888.5 | 362.5 mm | 383.0 mm |
| 2026-02-05 | 850.3 | 899.0 | 362.5 mm | 386.4 mm |
| 2026-02-06 | 857.8 | 908.7 | 362.6 mm | 389.2 mm |
| 2026-02-07 | 866.8 | 919.3 | 362.6 mm | 390.5 mm |
| 2026-02-08 | 879.3 | 929.0 | 365.9 mm | 392.4 mm |
| 2026-02-09 | 889.1 | 938.2 | 367.8 mm | 394.6 mm |
| 2026-02-10 | 899.5 | 946.8 | 368.1 mm | 397.2 mm |
| 2026-02-11 | 912.8 | 955.5 | 373.4 mm | 400.6 mm |
| 2026-02-12 | 917.0 | 964.1 | 379.6 mm | 402.1 mm |
| 2026-02-13 | 921.8 | 973.1 | 380.0 mm | 403.6 mm |
| 2026-02-14 | 929.5 | 983.2 | 380.1 mm | 405.2 mm |
| 2026-02-15 | 940.2 | 993.3 | 380.1 mm | 406.5 mm |
| 2026-02-16 | 953.8 | 1002.4 | 380.1 mm | 408.2 mm |
| 2026-02-17 | 968.4 | 1011.6 | 385.9 mm | 409.5 mm |
| 2026-02-18 | 975.2 | 1021.3 | 388.3 mm | 410.3 mm |
| 2026-02-19 | 983.0 | 1030.9 | 388.3 mm | 412.8 mm |
| 2026-02-20 | 992.3 | 1040.1 | 388.3 mm | 415.1 mm |
| 2026-02-21 | 1003.5 | 1049.0 | 388.3 mm | 416.4 mm |
| 2026-02-22 | 1014.0 | 1058.5 | 398.8 mm | 417.8 mm |
| 2026-02-23 | 1021.2 | 1068.3 | 406.1 mm | 418.7 mm |
| 2026-02-24 | 1030.9 | 1078.0 | 417.0 mm | 419.5 mm |
| 2026-02-25 | 1038.7 | 1088.4 | 431.5 mm | 420.0 mm |
| 2026-02-26 | 1048.0 | 1097.9 | 431.6 mm | 422.0 mm |
| 2026-02-27 | 1059.5 | 1106.2 | 437.0 mm | 424.2 mm |
| 2026-02-28 | 1072.6 | 1114.0 | 440.0 mm | 428.2 mm |
| 2026-03-01 | 1086.3 | 1121.8 | 442.2 mm | 429.9 mm |
| 2026-03-02 | 1095.5 | 1130.1 | 457.0 mm | 431.0 mm |
| 2026-03-03 | 1103.0 | 1139.2 | 460.1 mm | 432.3 mm |
| 2026-03-04 | 1110.9 | 1147.9 | 460.7 mm | 433.7 mm |
| 2026-03-05 | 1119.6 | 1155.9 | 460.7 mm | 435.7 mm |
| 2026-03-06 | 1128.1 | 1164.1 | 460.7 mm | 437.0 mm |
| 2026-03-07 | 1136.2 | 1172.5 | 460.9 mm | 438.7 mm |
| 2026-03-08 | 1144.7 | 1181.1 | 461.0 mm | 440.7 mm |
| 2026-03-09 | 1155.3 | 1189.6 | 461.1 mm | 441.7 mm |
| 2026-03-10 | 1166.0 | 1198.2 | 461.1 mm | 443.0 mm |
| 2026-03-11 | 1176.0 | 1207.2 | 462.4 mm | 444.0 mm |
| 2026-03-12 | 1180.1 | 1215.8 | 464.2 mm | 444.5 mm |
| 2026-03-13 | 1185.1 | 1224.1 | 464.9 mm | 445.9 mm |
| 2026-03-14 | 1190.0 | 1231.6 | 465.0 mm | 447.0 mm |
| 2026-03-15 | 1198.0 | 1239.2 | 465.0 mm | 448.1 mm |
| 2026-03-16 | 1205.4 | 1246.5 | 470.8 mm | 450.7 mm |
| 2026-03-17 | 1212.6 | 1253.9 | 479.3 mm | 452.5 mm |
| 2026-03-18 | 1219.5 | 1261.8 | 479.6 mm | 453.9 mm |
| 2026-03-19 | 1226.5 | 1269.8 | 479.8 mm | 454.7 mm |
| 2026-03-20 | 1233.9 | 1277.0 | 479.9 mm | 456.2 mm |
| 2026-03-21 | 1241.0 | 1284.2 | 480.1 mm | 458.4 mm |
| 2026-03-22 | 1251.7 | 1291.3 | 480.1 mm | 461.6 mm |
| 2026-03-23 | 1261.9 | 1298.5 | 480.1 mm | 463.4 mm |
| 2026-03-24 | 1272.1 | 1305.0 | 485.7 mm | 465.3 mm |
| 2026-03-25 | 1282.6 | 1312.1 | 488.5 mm | 467.4 mm |
| 2026-03-26 | 1286.9 | 1318.9 | 498.9 mm | 468.6 mm |
| 2026-03-27 | 1289.3 | 1325.7 | 509.3 mm | 470.6 mm |
| 2026-03-28 | 1293.6 | 1332.0 | 512.7 mm | 473.0 mm |
| 2026-03-29 | 1299.4 | 1338.2 | 513.5 mm | 475.1 mm |
| 2026-03-30 | 1306.4 | 1343.6 | 513.6 mm | 477.5 mm |
| 2026-03-31 | 1315.8 | 1349.2 | 513.6 mm | 479.0 mm |
| 2026-04-01 | 1326.5 | 1354.8 | 513.6 mm | 480.2 mm |
| 2026-04-02 | 1333.6 | 1360.3 | 513.7 mm | 481.9 mm |
| 2026-04-03 | 1337.4 | 1365.5 | 514.7 mm | 483.0 mm |
| 2026-04-04 | 1341.0 | 1370.6 | 514.9 mm | 485.0 mm |
| 2026-04-05 | 1346.8 | 1376.4 | 515.0 mm | 487.5 mm |
| 2026-04-06 | 1353.1 | 1381.4 | 517.7 mm | 489.4 mm |
| 2026-04-07 | 1359.0 | 1386.0 | 520.7 mm | 492.7 mm |
| 2026-04-08 | 1363.3 | 1391.2 | 521.4 mm | 494.5 mm |
| 2026-04-09 | 1371.7 | 1396.1 | 527.5 mm | 496.5 mm |
| 2026-04-10 | 1376.0 | 1401.1 | 536.7 mm | 499.6 mm |
| 2026-04-11 | 1376.6 | 1406.1 | 540.7 mm | 502.4 mm |
| 2026-04-12 | 1378.0 | 1411.2 | 545.8 mm | 505.3 mm |
| 2026-04-13 | 1381.5 | 1416.4 | 550.0 mm | 507.2 mm |
| 2026-04-14 | 1385.7 | 1421.7 | 551.7 mm | 510.4 mm |
| 2026-04-15 | 1390.5 | 1426.7 | 552.0 mm | 512.6 mm |
| 2026-04-16 | 1397.3 | 1431.1 | 553.4 mm | 514.1 mm |
| 2026-04-17 | 1399.8 | 1435.2 | 557.6 mm | 515.6 mm |
| 2026-04-18 | 1401.2 | 1439.4 | 558.1 mm | 517.2 mm |
| 2026-04-19 | 1401.8 | 1444.0 | 558.2 mm | 518.2 mm |
| 2026-04-20 | 1405.7 | 1448.6 | 558.2 mm | 519.7 mm |
| 2026-04-21 | 1411.8 | 1453.1 | 558.2 mm | 521.8 mm |
| 2026-04-22 | 1418.8 | 1457.2 | 558.2 mm | 525.0 mm |
| 2026-04-23 | 1425.5 | 1461.4 | 558.2 mm | 527.7 mm |
| 2026-04-24 | 1431.3 | 1465.5 | 558.2 mm | 531.4 mm |
| 2026-04-25 | 1437.6 | 1468.8 | 558.2 mm | 535.0 mm |
| 2026-04-26 | 1445.8 | 1472.2 | 558.2 mm | 538.2 mm |
| 2026-04-27 | 1450.7 | 1475.2 | 558.2 mm | 540.1 mm |
| 2026-04-28 | 1456.6 | 1478.5 | 558.2 mm | 542.1 mm |
| 2026-04-29 | 1462.5 | 1481.8 | 558.2 mm | 544.2 mm |
| 2026-04-30 | 1469.6 | 1484.7 | 558.2 mm | 547.1 mm |
Forecast outlook
ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Aug 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC
10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record
- GDD accumulation
- 20 GDDvs 14 GDD average
- Total rainfall
- 19.7 mmvs 27.6 mm average
No unusually hot or wet period stands out in the short-range forecast.
Sun8/30
13°Cavg 15°C
10°Cavg 6°C
+2 GDD
0.0 mm
Mon8/31
14°Cavg 15°C
10°Cavg 7°C
+1 GDD
0.2 mm
Tue9/1
19°Cavg 15°C
11°Cavg 7°C
+5 GDD
0.4 mm
Wed9/2
15°Cavg 16°C
12°Cavg 7°C
+3 GDD
3.5 mm
Thu9/3
14°Cavg 16°C
10°Cavg 7°C
+2 GDD
2.3 mm
Fri9/4
15°Cavg 15°C
7°Cavg 7°C
+2 GDD
1.5 mm
Sat9/5
15°Cavg 15°C
12°Cavg 6°C
+3 GDD
5.1 mm
Sun9/6
12°Cavg 15°C
10°Cavg 6°C
+1 GDD
2.2 mm
Mon9/7
12°Cavg 15°C
9°Cavg 7°C
+1 GDD
1.0 mm
Tue9/8
12°Cavg 15°C
7°Cavg 7°C
+0 GDD
3.5 mm
Data and methods
Show data sources and model assumptions
Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.
Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.
This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.
Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed August 23, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.
The Yarra Valley & Mornington Peninsula model uses a September 1–April 30 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 35°C.
The historical series uses 2 ERA5 locations, 10 temperature stations, and 50 rain stations. Interpretation confidence: high. Geometry confidence: reviewed-approximate. Rules: yarra-valley-catalog-v2-2026-07.