Australia · Multi-region weather view
Yarra Valley & Mornington Peninsula
Sign in to followCool Victorian vineyards east and southeast of Melbourne.
Maritime air and elevation keep the season cooler and wetter than inland Victoria.
Climate comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional record · updated through Sep 13, 2026.
Current conditions
Observations through Oct 29, 2026 · 06:00 UTC
Temperature17.3°C
Dew Point10.1°C
Relative Humidity63%
24h Rainfall1.8 mmmodeled IFS total through Oct 28
Vintage explorer
Mean temperature12.8°C
Temperature anomaly-4.3°Cvs 1991-2020
Growing degree days140base 10°C
Hot days0≥ 35°C
What stood out in 2026
Cool weather can slow ripening and help grapes retain acidity. Less rain often lowers disease pressure, but vines may depend more on stored soil water or irrigation.
Cooler growing season · High confidence
Mean growing-season temperature was -4.3°C versus the 1991–2020 baseline.
Cool weather can slow ripening and help grapes retain acidity.
Drier than baseline · Moderate confidence
Growing-season precipitation was 517 mm below the 1991–2020 baseline.
Less rain often lowers disease pressure, but vines may depend more on stored soil water or irrigation.
2026 month by month
Replay the 2026 growing season
Closest weather matches
How similar years are calculated
Method analog-v1-2026-07 standardizes six weather measures across 0 complete ARCO ERA5 comparison years, then measures the distance between them. The calculation runs when the page is requested.
View historical chart data as a table
| Year | Temperature anomaly | Rainfall anomaly | Hot days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | -0.7°C | -6 mm | 1 |
| 1992 | -0.5°C | +252 mm | 2 |
| 1993 | -0.9°C | +238 mm | 1 |
| 1994 | -0.8°C | +48 mm | 2 |
| 1995 | -1.7°C | +161 mm | 0 |
| 1996 | -0.5°C | -114 mm | 7 |
| 1997 | -0.3°C | -94 mm | 4 |
| 1998 | -0.2°C | +32 mm | 2 |
| 1999 | +0.3°C | -85 mm | 3 |
| 2000 | +0.6°C | +84 mm | 3 |
| 2001 | -0.8°C | -20 mm | 0 |
| 2002 | -0.1°C | -149 mm | 2 |
| 2003 | -0.7°C | -70 mm | 4 |
| 2004 | -0.2°C | +76 mm | 0 |
| 2005 | +0.4°C | -8 mm | 5 |
| 2006 | +0.6°C | -247 mm | 3 |
| 2007 | +0.5°C | -116 mm | 7 |
| 2008 | +0.1°C | -161 mm | 5 |
| 2009 | +1.0°C | +41 mm | 4 |
| 2010 | -0.3°C | +326 mm | 3 |
| 2011 | +0.4°C | +181 mm | 1 |
| 2012 | +0.7°C | -149 mm | 5 |
| 2013 | +0.6°C | +12 mm | 9 |
| 2014 | +0.2°C | -73 mm | 3 |
| 2015 | +1.3°C | -171 mm | 7 |
| 2016 | +0.3°C | +93 mm | 0 |
| 2017 | +0.9°C | -58 mm | 4 |
| 2018 | +0.7°C | -185 mm | 4 |
| 2019 | -0.5°C | +129 mm | 6 |
| 2020 | -0.3°C | +35 mm | 1 |
| 2021 | +0.2°C | +57 mm | 0 |
| 2022 | -0.5°C | +206 mm | 1 |
| 2023 | +0.2°C | +58 mm | 0 |
| 2024 | +1.1°C | -124 mm | 3 |
| 2025 | -0.0°C | +9 mm | 3 |
| 2026 | -4.3°C | -517 mm | 0 |
winter
10.3°C
+0.8°C vs baseline
291 mm rain · +24 mm
spring
12.8°C
-1.6°C vs baseline
120 mm rain · -213 mm
summer
Incomplete seasonal record
Temperature and rainfall are withheld for this window.
harvest
Incomplete seasonal record
Temperature and rainfall are withheld for this window.
Weather events
1991–present
Climate change
Measured regional trends are shown separately from model projections. The observed record ends at the latest complete growing season shared by every published region.
Observed record
Historical trends, 1991–2025
Growing degree days changed +77.1 GDD per decade. The 95% interval is +23.8 to +130.4 GDD per decade, based on 35 eligible vintages.
Weighted median: 70% SSP2-4.5 · 15% SSP1-2.6 · 15% SSP3-7.0
Shaded central 80% model range using the same weights.
How it is measured: Across the September 1–April 30 growing season, each day's mean temperature above 10°C adds to the total; cooler days add zero.
Scroll horizontally to inspect the full timeline.
View annual growing degree days data
| Vintage | Growing degree days | Change from 1991–2020 |
|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 1334 GDD | -151 GDD |
| 1992 | 1390 GDD | -95 GDD |
| 1993 | 1267 GDD | -218 GDD |
| 1994 | 1311 GDD | -174 GDD |
| 1995 | 1097 GDD | -388 GDD |
| 1996 | 1377 GDD | -108 GDD |
| 1997 | 1405 GDD | -80 GDD |
| 1998 | 1432 GDD | -53 GDD |
| 1999 | 1548 GDD | +63 GDD |
| 2000 | 1616 GDD | +131 GDD |
| 2001 | 1291 GDD | -194 GDD |
| 2002 | 1465 GDD | -20 GDD |
| 2003 | 1338 GDD | -147 GDD |
| 2004 | 1423 GDD | -62 GDD |
| 2005 | 1569 GDD | +84 GDD |
| 2006 | 1625 GDD | +140 GDD |
| 2007 | 1604 GDD | +119 GDD |
| 2008 | 1497 GDD | +12 GDD |
| 2009 | 1717 GDD | +232 GDD |
| 2010 | 1419 GDD | -67 GDD |
| 2011 | 1574 GDD | +89 GDD |
| 2012 | 1639 GDD | +154 GDD |
| 2013 | 1618 GDD | +133 GDD |
| 2014 | 1522 GDD | +37 GDD |
| 2015 | 1803 GDD | +318 GDD |
| 2016 | 1540 GDD | +55 GDD |
| 2017 | 1703 GDD | +218 GDD |
| 2018 | 1659 GDD | +174 GDD |
| 2019 | 1371 GDD | -114 GDD |
| 2020 | 1397 GDD | -88 GDD |
| 2021 | 1543 GDD | +58 GDD |
| 2022 | 1370 GDD | -115 GDD |
| 2023 | 1534 GDD | +49 GDD |
| 2024 | 1752 GDD | +267 GDD |
| 2025 | 1470 GDD | -15 GDD |
- Growing-season mean temperature
- +0.33 °C per decade 95% interval +0.10 to +0.56
- Growing degree days
- +77.14 GDD per decade 95% interval +23.85 to +130.43
- Growing-season precipitation
- -12.51 mm per decade 95% interval -61.40 to +36.38
- Hot days
- +0.17 days per decade 95% interval -0.66 to +1.00
- Spring frost days
- No variation recorded
- Longest dry spell
- +1.39 days per decade 95% interval -0.03 to +2.81
Last Updated September 20, 2026
Model ensemble
Projected climate through 2075
Temperature changes are relative to each model’s 1991–2020 baseline. The table combines all three pathways, weighted 70% to SSP2-4.5 and 15% each to SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0.
Scroll horizontally to compare all columns.
| Period | Weighted median | Weighted central 80% | Models per pathway |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-2040 | +0.6°C | +0.3 to +0.9°C | 25 |
| 2041-2060 | +1.2°C | +0.7 to +1.6°C | 25 |
| 2061-2075 | +1.5°C | +1.1 to +2.2°C | 25 |
How pathways are combined
For each period and percentile, Weather & Vines takes 70% of the SSP2-4.5 value, 15% of the SSP1-2.6 value, and 15% of the SSP3-7.0 value. Each pathway contains the same 25 models. The weights are an editorial view of the current trajectory, not scenario probabilities.
Last Updated June 29, 2025
Typical year · 1991–2020
When to visit
This calendar describes typical regional weather under the selected climate baseline. It is not a forecast for a future trip, and it does not account for crowds, lodging, events, or vineyard access.
Deterministic IFS forecast
Next ten days
Scroll horizontally to see all forecast dates.
| Date | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | 17°C | 25°C | 22°C | 18°C | 18°C | 18°C | 18°C | 15°C | 19°C | 13°C |
| Low | 11°C | 8°C | 14°C | 11°C | 9°C | 12°C | 10°C | 9°C | 11°C | 10°C |
| Rain | 0.1 mm | 0.1 mm | 3.2 mm | 2.9 mm | 5.7 mm | 0.9 mm | 12.1 mm | 2.3 mm | 4.7 mm | 1.7 mm |
Across the typical year: Early February has the warmest median afternoon high (24.8°C); Early July has the coolest (12.4°C). Wet days are most frequent in Early August (61%) and least frequent in Early March (23%). Ties are resolved by calendar order.
Afternoon highOvernight lowMiddle 50%
Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.
Scroll horizontally to inspect all 24 half-month periods.
View all 24 periods as a table
Scroll horizontally to view all columns.
| Period | Afternoon high, median (middle 50%) | Overnight low, median (middle 50%) | Wet-day frequency | Period rain, median (middle 50%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1–15 | 23.8°C (20.2–28.5°C) | 13.1°C (11.5–15.6°C) | 27% | 26.1 mm (13.4–35.7 mm) |
| Jan 16–31 | 24.6°C (21.2–28.1°C) | 13.8°C (11.9–15.8°C) | 28% | 27.6 mm (15.9–37.7 mm) |
| Feb 1–15 | 24.8°C (21.1–29.3°C) | 13.8°C (11.8–16.2°C) | 30% | 23.6 mm (7.7–42.9 mm) |
| Feb 16–29 | 24.0°C (20.8–27.9°C) | 13.6°C (11.9–15.7°C) | 25% | 19.1 mm (5.0–31.5 mm) |
| Mar 1–15 | 22.7°C (19.8–27.3°C) | 12.7°C (11.2–14.7°C) | 23% | 15.8 mm (6.8–29.2 mm) |
| Mar 16–31 | 21.3°C (18.4–24.9°C) | 11.7°C (10.1–13.5°C) | 33% | 27.6 mm (18.3–37.4 mm) |
| Apr 1–15 | 19.4°C (16.9–22.7°C) | 10.3°C (8.6–11.8°C) | 35% | 27.4 mm (16.2–47.1 mm) |
| Apr 16–30 | 18.0°C (15.8–20.5°C) | 9.3°C (7.4–11.1°C) | 36% | 28.6 mm (16.3–44.4 mm) |
| May 1–15 | 15.8°C (14.1–18.1°C) | 8.4°C (6.8–10.2°C) | 45% | 29.1 mm (19.7–56.7 mm) |
| May 16–31 | 14.8°C (13.3–16.5°C) | 8.0°C (6.0–9.6°C) | 45% | 37.3 mm (25.6–48.0 mm) |
| Jun 1–15 | 13.4°C (12.2–14.8°C) | 7.0°C (5.0–8.6°C) | 48% | 38.7 mm (30.4–47.9 mm) |
| Jun 16–30 | 12.8°C (11.4–13.8°C) | 6.6°C (4.3–8.2°C) | 48% | 32.1 mm (24.2–55.5 mm) |
| Jul 1–15 | 12.4°C (11.3–13.5°C) | 6.5°C (4.9–7.8°C) | 53% | 38.7 mm (28.1–51.8 mm) |
| Jul 16–31 | 12.4°C (11.3–13.5°C) | 6.2°C (4.4–7.6°C) | 53% | 34.9 mm (27.2–43.9 mm) |
| Aug 1–15 | 12.8°C (11.5–14.1°C) | 6.3°C (4.8–7.8°C) | 61% | 46.2 mm (36.6–57.1 mm) |
| Aug 16–31 | 13.5°C (12.1–15.7°C) | 6.1°C (4.6–7.8°C) | 48% | 43.6 mm (20.7–55.1 mm) |
| Sep 1–15 | 14.7°C (13.0–17.0°C) | 6.9°C (5.2–8.6°C) | 53% | 38.2 mm (29.3–61.5 mm) |
| Sep 16–30 | 15.7°C (13.6–18.0°C) | 7.3°C (5.8–9.2°C) | 51% | 39.3 mm (26.8–51.4 mm) |
| Oct 1–15 | 16.9°C (14.6–20.5°C) | 8.1°C (6.3–9.7°C) | 46% | 34.2 mm (25.6–50.0 mm) |
| Oct 16–31 | 17.9°C (15.4–21.2°C) | 8.7°C (7.0–10.4°C) | 44% | 36.1 mm (23.5–56.0 mm) |
| Nov 1–15 | 18.9°C (16.0–22.9°C) | 9.5°C (7.8–11.6°C) | 43% | 44.8 mm (33.7–59.7 mm) |
| Nov 16–30 | 20.8°C (18.1–25.4°C) | 10.5°C (8.6–12.8°C) | 34% | 26.8 mm (21.0–44.1 mm) |
| Dec 1–15 | 21.3°C (18.3–25.2°C) | 11.0°C (9.4–13.3°C) | 34% | 31.0 mm (19.8–48.8 mm) |
| Dec 16–31 | 22.2°C (19.4–26.5°C) | 12.0°C (10.2–13.9°C) | 32% | 31.5 mm (19.6–43.8 mm) |
Each year contributes to temperature or rain separately when at least 90% of that period’s days are present. A value is shown only when at least 80% of the baseline years qualify. February 29 is included in late February.
Historical climatology Last Updated August 20, 2026
Season to date
Growing season heat and rainfall
Sep 1–Oct 29, 2026
Growing degree days140.3base 10°C
Growing-season rainfall120.9 mmweighted regional total
2026 season1991–2020 average
2026 season1991–2020 average
View growing-season accumulation data
| Date | Season GDD | 1991–2020 average GDD | Season rainfall | 1991–2020 average rainfall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2.9 mm | 2.5 mm |
| 2026-09-02 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 6.0 mm | 5.1 mm |
| 2026-09-03 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 7.8 mm | 7.3 mm |
| 2026-09-04 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 10.7 mm | 10.0 mm |
| 2026-09-05 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 27.2 mm | 12.6 mm |
| 2026-09-06 | 13.4 | 8.4 | 29.9 mm | 15.0 mm |
| 2026-09-07 | 13.4 | 9.6 | 32.5 mm | 17.6 mm |
| 2026-09-08 | 13.4 | 10.9 | 32.5 mm | 21.0 mm |
| 2026-09-09 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 35.0 mm | 24.8 mm |
| 2026-09-10 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 35.1 mm | 27.8 mm |
| 2026-09-11 | 15.0 | 14.7 | 35.1 mm | 31.2 mm |
| 2026-09-12 | 17.4 | 16.7 | 35.1 mm | 35.4 mm |
| 2026-09-13 | 23.4 | 18.5 | 36.0 mm | 37.9 mm |
| 2026-09-14 | 28.1 | 20.6 | 37.8 mm | 40.5 mm |
| 2026-09-15 | 28.1 | 22.3 | 41.6 mm | 44.6 mm |
| 2026-09-16 | 28.1 | 24.0 | 42.4 mm | 48.1 mm |
| 2026-09-17 | 28.1 | 25.3 | 42.5 mm | 51.0 mm |
| 2026-09-18 | 30.0 | 27.2 | 42.5 mm | 53.6 mm |
| 2026-09-19 | 37.1 | 29.8 | 42.5 mm | 56.9 mm |
| 2026-09-20 | 45.5 | 31.6 | 42.7 mm | 60.1 mm |
| 2026-09-21 | 45.5 | 33.8 | 44.0 mm | 62.0 mm |
| 2026-09-22 | 45.5 | 36.5 | 44.0 mm | 64.5 mm |
| 2026-09-23 | 46.6 | 38.9 | 44.0 mm | 66.7 mm |
| 2026-09-24 | 51.7 | 40.9 | 44.6 mm | 68.7 mm |
| 2026-09-25 | 58.9 | 42.4 | 46.4 mm | 71.8 mm |
| 2026-09-26 | 59.7 | 43.8 | 53.4 mm | 75.1 mm |
| 2026-09-27 | 60.2 | 46.4 | 53.4 mm | 77.5 mm |
| 2026-09-28 | 60.2 | 48.8 | 53.4 mm | 79.9 mm |
| 2026-09-29 | 64.1 | 51.1 | 53.4 mm | 84.8 mm |
| 2026-09-30 | 72.2 | 53.6 | 53.7 mm | 87.7 mm |
| 2026-10-01 | 77.6 | 56.3 | 78.4 mm | 91.0 mm |
| 2026-10-02 | 79.5 | 59.6 | 94.9 mm | 92.8 mm |
| 2026-10-03 | 82.2 | 63.2 | 108.5 mm | 94.9 mm |
| 2026-10-04 | 83.5 | 66.5 | 108.7 mm | 96.6 mm |
| 2026-10-05 | 85.2 | 69.7 | 108.7 mm | 98.9 mm |
| 2026-10-06 | 86.8 | 72.9 | 110.4 mm | 101.1 mm |
| 2026-10-07 | 88.5 | 75.3 | 110.4 mm | 104.1 mm |
| 2026-10-08 | 92.0 | 77.5 | 110.4 mm | 107.5 mm |
| 2026-10-09 | 98.5 | 79.9 | 110.4 mm | 110.0 mm |
| 2026-10-10 | 104.8 | 82.9 | 110.9 mm | 112.8 mm |
| 2026-10-11 | 111.5 | 86.4 | 111.0 mm | 115.4 mm |
| 2026-10-12 | 116.2 | 90.0 | 120.0 mm | 117.1 mm |
| 2026-10-13 | 116.2 | 92.8 | 120.6 mm | 119.7 mm |
| 2026-10-14 | 116.2 | 96.2 | 120.7 mm | 122.5 mm |
| 2026-10-15 | 117.0 | 100.3 | 120.7 mm | 124.7 mm |
| 2026-10-16 | 121.0 | 103.8 | 120.8 mm | 127.7 mm |
| 2026-10-17 | 126.4 | 107.0 | 120.8 mm | 131.0 mm |
| 2026-10-18 | 132.8 | 110.7 | 120.9 mm | 132.9 mm |
| 2026-10-19 | 140.3 | 114.7 | 120.9 mm | 134.7 mm |
Forecast outlook
ECMWF IFS 0.25° via Herbie · run Oct 29, 2026 at 00:00 UTC
10-day totals compared with the 1991–2020 combined regional record
- GDD accumulation
- 44 GDDvs 45 GDD average
- Total rainfall
- 33.7 mmvs 30.7 mm average
A notable amount of rain is forecast during the period. The 10-day total meets the 30 mm forecast threshold, with rain forecast Oct 29–Nov 7.
Thu10/29
17°Cavg 20°C
11°Cavg 8°C
+5 GDD
0.1 mm
Fri10/30
25°Cavg 20°C
8°Cavg 10°C
+6 GDD
0.1 mm
Sat10/31
22°Cavg 20°C
14°Cavg 10°C
+8 GDD
3.2 mm
Sun11/1
18°Cavg 20°C
11°Cavg 10°C
+4 GDD
2.9 mm
Mon11/2
18°Cavg 20°C
9°Cavg 10°C
+4 GDD
5.7 mm
Tue11/3
18°Cavg 19°C
12°Cavg 10°C
+4 GDD
0.9 mm
Wed11/4
18°Cavg 19°C
10°Cavg 9°C
+3 GDD
12.1 mm
Thu11/5
15°Cavg 19°C
9°Cavg 9°C
+2 GDD
2.3 mm
Fri11/6
19°Cavg 19°C
11°Cavg 10°C
+6 GDD
4.7 mm
Sat11/7
13°Cavg 19°C
10°Cavg 10°C
+1 GDD
1.7 mm
Data and methods
Show data sources and model assumptions
Current model conditions and the 10-day outlook use the 00 UTC deterministic ECMWF IFS 0.25° public forecast retrieved directly with Herbie. Historical temperature and rain combine qualifying GHCN-D stations with ERA5 by geographic area; a missing station day uses the nearest ERA5 value for that station's area. Climate comparisons use 1991–2020.
Forecast comparisons use the 1991–2020 combined regional daily record. Daily high and low averages use the matching date; rainfall and GDD sum the same calendar dates as the forecast period.
This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Weather & Vines subsets, converts, and regionally weights the forecast fields. ECMWF data are published under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF accepts no liability for errors, omissions, availability, loss, or damage arising from their use.
Climate projections use NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v2.0, accessed September 20, 2026, with 25 models. Weather & Vines subsets and aggregates the source fields. Source files and derived projection data are under CC BY-SA 4.0; the full roster and limitations are listed in the climate atlas methods.
The Yarra Valley & Mornington Peninsula model uses a September 1–April 30 growing season, base 10°C GDD, and an operational hot-day marker of 35°C.